Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 121017 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 617 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATER SATURDAY AND EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 615 AM UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND EVEN A FREEZE LATE TONIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY, BUT ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN MAINE. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF SHORE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING GIVEN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, BUT THEY SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY AND THE GRADIENT LESSENS. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS THE COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SPREADS INTO THE REGION. IN SPITE OF INCREASING SUNSHINE, IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL FALL-LIKE TODAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN THE NORTH, AND ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY AIRMASS, WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL CREST DIRECTLY OVER THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME CALM, ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THIS ALL POINTS TO A PERFECT NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER, THERE IS ONE SNAG: INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN LOCATIONS. THE FAR WEST IS A LITTLE SKETCHY, BUT EXPECT EVEN THESE SPOTS WILL HAVE TIME TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S PRIOR TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 30 IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE, HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY. HOWEVER, FROST IS VERY LIKELY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOMERSET, PISCATAQUIS, PENOBSCOT, AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. PERSONS WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS. FURTHER SOUTH, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AFT A CHILLY ACROSS THE REGION START SAT MORN...FAIR SKIES WILL TURN TO INCREASING CLDNSS FROM THE W DURG THE AFTN AS AN UPPER S/WV COMPLEX FROM THE GREAT LKS AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET THRU THE OH VLY BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12/00Z GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW SFC LOWS WITH THE MAIN S/WV APCHG FAR NRN ME AND A DEVELOPING SECONDARY SFC LOW ON THE OCCLUSION POINT APCHG THE GULF OF ME SAT EVE. SUBSEQUENTLY...TWO BULLSEYES OF HEAVIER QPF ARE SHOWN BY THE MODELS CORRESPONDING TO FAR NW PTNS AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT...WITH LESSER QPF BETWEEN THE TWO. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE GO WITH AT LEAST CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION SAT NGT...MAXING OUT AT 90 PERCENT WITH THE THE QPF BULLSEYES. AFTWRDS...SHWRS SHOULD MOVE OUT E OF THE REGION QUICKLY BY SUN MORN BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE BKN-OVC SC ACROSS THE N...WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS BECOME MSLY SUNNY. HI TEMPS BOTH SAT AND SUN WILL BE A LITTLE BLO AVG... WITH NEAR AVG OVRNGT LOWS SAT NGT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SFC HI PRES BUILDING OVR THE REGION SUN NGT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLR SKIES AND ANOTHER CHILLY NGT FOR OVRNGT LOWS SPCLY FOR THE RVR VLYS OF THE N. BASED ON THE PSN OF THE SFC HI OVR THE FA LATE SUN NGT WITH CLR SKIES...LGT WINDS AND FCST LATE NGT 925 MB TEMPS IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS...WE WENT BLO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR OVRNGT LOWS SUN NGT. FAIR SKIES WILL CONT INTO MON WITH A GOOD RECOVERY OF TEMPS BY MON AFTN. ANOTHER...WEAKER S/WV FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS WILL BRING CLDNSS FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY...WITH A CHC OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS LATER MON NGT INTO TUE MORN. A MILDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR LATER TUE INTO WED...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL CAN FOR WED NGT OR THU MORN THAT APPEARS FROM THIS POINT IN TM... NOT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE...SO POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE SLGT CHC CAT FOR NOW FOR THESE PDS. THU LOOKS TO BE PTLY CLDY AND PERHAPS COOLER IF THE ORIGIN OF THE AIRMASS IS FROM NRN CAN AS ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND IF THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TO LONG TERM: SAT WILL BE MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES THEN MSLY MVFR IN CLD CVR AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS SAT NGT. DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR SUN MORN WHILE NRN TAF SITES REACH VFR BY SUN AFTN WITH A SLOWLY RISING SC CLD DECK. VFR SHOULD THEN CONT INTO MON EVE BEFORE CLDNSS AND VSBYS LOWER BACK TO MVFR LATE MON NGT INTO TUE IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING, TO BE FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY OFF-SHORE WINDS. ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE, THEY WILL BE SHORT- LIVED, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEAS EXPECTED. SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO CLEAR CUT WIND/SEA HDLN PDS SEEN ATTM...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING CLOSER TO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE OUTER MZ WATERS ATTMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. KEPT WITHIN ABOUT 85 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE OVR BOTH TM PTNS OF THE FCST. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-006. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN

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