Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271946 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON COVERS A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE POCONOS DOWN INTO THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ALOFT...A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SAT AND THE 925 MB TEMP WHICH WAS -22C AT 12Z THIS MORNING AT CARIBOU IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND -14Z BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS AS A RADIATION INVERSION FORMS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THE HILL TOPS. THAT SAID...A NUMBER OF THE COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL BE 20 BELOW OR COLDER AGAIN TONIGHT. MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE...AND FROM 10 BELOW TO ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST LOWS. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AND WITH A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS AS THE INVERSIONS BREAK EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GETTING WARMER THAN FORECAST DID RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SAT AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST THATS AND NEW ENGLAND. A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN IL. SUN MRNG THE HIGH BUILDS EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVR FOUR CORNERS EXTEND EAST INTO PA. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BY SUN EVNG... THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MERGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS A NEW NEW LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE GEM SHOWS THE LOW OVR NRN KY. THE NEW LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS MOVES IT TO VT/NH...THE ECMWF INTO SW GULF OF MAINE. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE SE GULF OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...DRAWING ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA AS A CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN. LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED A LOW EXITING THE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES COMBINED WITH AN ADVANCING CANADIAN HIGH PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD AREA OVER THE AREA MON NGT. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL US. BY EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. EARLY WED AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE TO ERN QUEBEC. BY THURS MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN MAINE. A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE EARLY MORNING FRI...OTHERWISE THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE SE OUT OF NW CANADA ON THURS EVNG...TO LAKE SUPERIOR FRI AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL BE OVER SWRN QUEBEC...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT ABOUT 6 HRS BEHIND.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM: CLR TO PC THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SW TO NE. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES THROUGH EARLY SUN EVNG...MVFR BHB AND BGR SUN EVNG AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT BHB...BGR...VFR OTHER SITES AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL MAINE REGION. CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR MON AFTERNOON ALL SITES.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SAT. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA SUN AND EARLY MON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVNGS AT THIS TIME WNDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE UPPER END OF SCA LOWER END GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. MORE INFORMATION ON THE COLD FEBRUARY IS AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...NORTON LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...CB/NORTON MARINE...CB/NORTON CLIMATE...CB

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