Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 270307 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1007 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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950 PM UPDATE: JUST MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS OVRNGT BASED ON 9 PM OBS. OTHERWISE NO SIG CHGS MADE TO NEAR TERM GRIDS ATTM. ORGNL DISC: THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE ON THE MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS WITH POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE`RE EXPECTING SNOW TO MOVE ONTO THE DOWNEAST COAST AROUND OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN PROGRESS NORTH REACHING NORTHERN MAINE LATE MORNING TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DOWNEAST WHERE A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. COLD TEMPERATURES MEANS THE SNOW WILL BE DRY AND WILL EASILY BLOW AROUND RESULTING IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND 18 INCHES DOWNEAST TO 10 INCHES UP NORTH ARE STILL EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OFF CAPE COD AND START FILLING. THE OCCLUSION THAT BROUGHT TUESDAY`S HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL WEAKEN IN NORTHERN ZONES. STRONG NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT DOWN EAST WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE A VERY LIGHTWEIGHT SNOW THAT WILL EASILY BECOME AIRBORNE AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF AN ADDITIONAL THREE TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MORE QPF WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...BUT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER NORTH. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE REDUCED BY STRONG WINDS AS WELL AS A WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE H850 TOWARDS THE COAST. THE LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE GEFS/SREF TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP PATTERN FOR NOW. THE EXACT PATH AND SPEED OF THE CUT-OFF SYSTEM STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DECAY AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS A RESULT...ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ALL DAY. CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH READINGS AS LOW AS TEN BELOW IN THE ALLAGASH. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE DAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. WRAP AROUND SNOWS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE MARITIMES WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS REGARDING POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY...AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THEN AT MUCH BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DROP TO IFR DOWNEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN IFR AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO IFR ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: 950 PM UPDATE...WE USED CG1 WV GUIDANCE TO BUMP WV HTS OVR INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052...SPCLY FOR LATE TNGT THRU WED. OTHERWISE...WW3 WV GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS MAX WV HTS OF 20 TO 22 FT OVR OUTER MZS050-051 CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. ORGNL DISC...A STORM WARNING REMAINS UP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TONIGHT AND REACHING GUSTS UP TO 50 KT BY EARLY TUESDAY. STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SHORT TERM: STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE TO GALE CONDITIONS LATER IN THE NIGHT. SEAS COULD APPROACH 20 FT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THE GALE ENDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND GIVE WAY TO AN SCA THAT WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR SHORELINE FLOODING AT SPLASHOVER AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE, WHICH ARE 4 AM TONIGHT AND 4:30 PM TUESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>004. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-031-032. BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN

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