Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180757 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 257 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure passes well south of the region today. An upper level disturbance will cross the area tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure builds into the region Friday, and is expected to remain across the area into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Sfc low dvlpng off the NY Bight late tonight. 1028mb sfc high holding tight acrs New Brunswick with ridge axis keeping snow just to south and west of CWA. Extremely tight gradient expected this mrng btwn snow and no snow. Hv backed off slightly on pops thru 12z acrs far swrn Penobscot Cnty and wrn Hancock Cnty based on timing and orientation of sfc winds. If winds cud turn southeast enuf this mrng, it may result in orographic lift in the aforementioned areas but wl lkly keep erly flow in until moisture dissipates. May see arnd 1 inch this mrng along a Moosehead lake to Brooklin line with amnts near 1/2 inch for the Bangor region but given the extremely sharp gradient not expecting much more than a dusting to the east. Expecting max temps up arnd normal values tda with highs arnd 20F acrs the north and u20s/nr30s in Downeast. Temps in the north ovrngtwl not fall much with clds bcmg trapped under inversion. For tonight, wk wv wl spread snow into the area fm Canada aft midnight. Wl lkly see categorical pops in the St. John Vly and northern Aroostook with progressive shot of snow and a quick 1-3 inches ovrngt, mainly north of a Moosehead to Houlton line.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A mid/upper level trough shifts east of the region Thu with a ridge both sfc and aloft to build over the area though Fri. Areas of light snow will wind down by Thu afternoon across the Crown as the upper trough axis shifts east. Any add`l snow accumulation will be an inch or less, and mainly confined to the northeast zones. Generally dry and p/cloudy for Thu night into Fri. Temperatures will be above average with highs both days approaching the freezing mark across northern areas and 35 to 40 degrees across the Downeast Region.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A dry and mild period with high confidence that there will not be any significant precipitation. High pres builds across the area both sfc and aloft with troughs across the David Strait and across the western CONUS. An upper low that ejects from the 4-corners region Sat and into the southeast U.S. by Mon. Temperatures will average 10 to 15 degrees above average for late January. It now appears the ridge will hold into Tue, and may break down toward midweek bringing the next chance of precipitation to the region, which may be in the form of rain across much of the CWA. The best chance of any snow will be across northern areas. Overall, the pattern looks to favor above average temperatures through next week.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR expected through today for FVE, CAR and PQI then will decrease to MVFR restrictions after 00z Thur as weak system spreads -sn in from the west. HUL will likely go down to MVFR cigs after 14z this morning. BHB will see MVFR after 10z in -sn and eventually IFR between 13z and 18z. BGR will be on the very eastern gradient of VFR and MVFR and expect them to become MVFR after 14z. SHORT TERM: Thu morning will likely start with IFR/MVFR at the northern taf sites in -sn, with improvement to MVFR/VFR by afternoon. Occasional MVFR Thu morning at the Down East terminals will improve to VFR by midday. VFR expected Fri through the weekend, although occasional MVFR may continue at the northern Taf sites, especially from KCAR north into Thu night.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: SCA ongoing, mainly for wind gusts early, with seas coming up in serly swell by mid-morning. Expect winds wl diminish after 18z tho seas wl likely be marginal SCA after 00z then decreasing thru 12z Thur. SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels Thu through Sun as high pressure builds over the waters. The wind will likely increase and the seas build by Tue of next week ahead of the next approaching weather system.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ050- 051.
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&& $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Farrar/CB Marine...Farrar/CB

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