Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 192207 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 607 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area tonight while Hurricane Jose approaches southeastern New England. Jose will turn eastward and track south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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6:07 PM Update...Stratus covers roughly the southern half of the CWA early this evening. Drizzle has been observed at Bangor early this evening with areas of fog noted on web cams along the coast. There is plenty of low level moisture around, and expect that the low clouds will fill back in across northern areas by late this evening. The fog will likely become more widespread across the Downeast Region this evening with areas of fog later tonight across the northern portions of the CWA. Although there could be some patches of locally dense fog, the dense fog is not expected to be real widespread as the flow turns more northeast and there will also be some high/mid level clouds and rain that moves in along the coast to help keep the lower levels a bit more mixed than previous nights. The ongoing forecast covers this well with only very minor tweaks based on the latest observations, satellite pictures, radar, and web cams. Previous discussion... High pressure will be ridged across northern Maine tonight, with Hurricane Jose located south of Cape Cod. Skies will remain cloudy across central and Downeast portions of the forecast area tonight. An area of rain will move northwest toward the Downeast coast tonight. However, the high to the north will limit the northward movement. The best chances of rain tonight will be along the Downeast coast, with lesser chances northward across the remainder of the region. Only isolated showers are possible across northern portions of the forecast area tonight. Clouds have thinned across northern portions of the forecast area this afternoon. However, with lingering low level moisture expect clouds will re-develop tonight. Fog will move back onshore across Downeast areas tonight, with fog re-developing across the remainder of the region, which will linger early Wednesday. High pressure will begin to build south across the region Wednesday afternoon. After a mostly cloudy morning, expect decreasing clouds across northern areas during the afternoon. Rain could linger Downeast, particularly closer to the coast, early Wednesday. The rain will then end through the morning into the afternoon with skies remaining mostly cloudy. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to around 60 north, to around 60 to the lower 60s Downeast. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the lower to mid 70s across much of the forecast area, with around 70 to the lower 70s along the Downeast coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Jose is expected to move to the southeast of Nantucket Island Wednesday evening. At the same time strong high pressure will be located to the north of the state. Jose is then expected to drift very slowly to the east and south Thursday and Friday which will allow the strong high to dominate most of the region. Expect clouds in coastal areas Wednesday night but clearing should take place Thursday in all areas as high pressure builds in. Some clouds are expected in the north and along the coast later Friday as the high pressure system starts to weaken. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... At this point, no significant weather systems are expected in the long term part of the forecast. Surface high pressure and a weak ridge aloft will keep it dry and sunny on Saturday. The upper ridge looks to keep Jose (or its remnant low) well south of the area before it either drifts back west or gets pushed east, depending on which model solution you favor. Either way, Jose looks to have little or no impact on Maine weather in the long-term, aside from seas perhaps remaining a bit rough through the weekend. Between Saturday night and Monday morning, various models have indications of weak troughs or fronts pushing across the area, but none have much in the way of precipitation or a sizable cold air push behind them, so POPs were kept fairly low. There may be a bit more agreement on a possible front and a weakening of the upper ridge later Monday into Tuesday, but may questions remain, so POPs were limited to low - end chance at best. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally IFR/LIFR conditions are expected with low clouds and fog Downeast tonight into early Wednesday, with MVFR/IFR conditions Wednesday afternoon. VFR/MVFR conditions are expected across northern areas early tonight. IFR/LIFR conditions will then develop overnight and persist early Wednesday. Conditions will then improve to VFR levels across northern areas Wednesday afternoon. SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions Wednesday night through Sunday, with the exception of variable conditions with any late night fog. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas is in effect tonight through Wednesday afternoon. Visibilities will be reduced in rain and fog tonight through Wednesday. SHORT TERM: For winds: Have used a 50/50 blend of the NAM and GFS. Expect northeast winds to increase Thursday as gradient tightens in the juxtaposition between Jose and strong high pressure to the north. Winds will then decrease Friday as Jose drifts to the south. For Waves: Southeasterly swell from Jose will continue to build into Wednesday. As winds increase a secondary northeasterly wind wave system will develop across the Gulf of Maine Wednesday into Thursday. This wave system will combine with long period southeasterly swell. Will initialize the waves with the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) and will then lower wave heights 1 foot to adjust for expected high bias. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Currently long period swell from Jose which is running at 14 seconds/5-6 feet continues to enter the Gulf of Maine. Waves are expected to increase in height Tonight and Wednesday. So will extend the high surf advisory. Concern is that long period waves high impact in the surf zone, and can run up much higher on the shore than shorter period waves resulting in the danger of spectators being washed into the ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents are also expected. The astronomical tide will be at the highest levels of the month as well over the next few days. Northeasterly winds are expected to increase Late Wednesday and Thursday resulting in an additional 1 foot of storm surge. The largest waves are expected to arrive Wednesday and Wednesday Night. Therefore the Wednesday Night at 11:50 PM and Thursday Afternoon at 12:13 AM high tide cycles are of greatest concern for runup and splash- over along coastal areas directly exposed to large ocean waves. Since the expected storm surge is going to be only around 1 foot, the total water levels inland from the coast are NOT expected to be high enough for flooding resulting from storm surge alone. && .CLIMATE...
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Month to date this September ranks as the 6th warmest on record at Caribou. Four of the top 7 warmest (September 1-18) have occurred since 2012.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...CB/Norcross/Mignone Marine...CB/Norcross/Mignone Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone Climate...CB

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