Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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479 FXUS61 KCAR 301804 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 104 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A developing area of low pressure will move through the Gulf of Maine tonight into Thursday. This will result in snow once again across northern Maine and rain for Downeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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1 PM Update: Prelim work has been done with winds, PoPs, QPF, and snfl thru Thu. Otherwise, fcst hi temps were adjusted upwards a deg or two F based on trends shown from midday obs compared to the prev fcst of temps at these hrs. Orgnl Disc: 1007mb low is sitting just to the west of Yarmouth Nova Scotia as of 09z. Precipitation is gradually ending across eastern zones with a few remnant snow showers mainly to the north of Houlton and light showers to the south. Expect these wl come to an end shortly after daybreak. In its wake, brief s/wv ridging wl occur acrs the CWA with little in the way of pcpn expected most of the day. Intense system in the middle of the nation wl translate east thru the day tda. Low in the vicinity of St. Paul MN wl mv north and east to srn Ontario in region of strongest height falls per 00z raob. Expect a triple point low to form in the Gulf of Maine by mrng as 150kt jet streak heads out of the MS Vly late tonight. Precip wl spread north on sw flow and enter CWA by 22z this aftn. 00z GFS is warmer than 00z NAM with temps aloft as was the case for yda`s event. NAM was closer to what actually occurred yda thus hv opted to go with the NAM soln for tonight/Thur event. 00z BUFKIT soundings indicating a ra/sn mix starting off in the Bangor region then mainly rain drg the overnight hrs tho profile is vry isothermal up thru 700mb. Air looks to be cold enuf for all snow north of this region and all rain further to the south. Invariably there wl be a ra/sn and possibly sleet line just to the north of BGR and hv accounted for this ovrngt with a vry slow nwd jaunt by mrng. Most locations to the north of a Bridgewater-Greenville line look to rmn all snow with heavy snow expected late tonight into Thur mrng. This may result in 10-14 inches acrs the Allagash and 8-12 further to the east. Advisory accums of 4-8 inches expected along a Dover-Houlton line with potential for sleet possibly mixing in. Hv expanded Winter Storm Watch into northern Somerset and Piscataquis counties with winter wx advisories likely need further to the south at some point today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will continue to move to the northeast into the Maritimes Thursday Night. A trough of low pressure will remain over the region and keep skies mostly cloudy, especially in the north. Snow showers are also possible in the north through Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Snow showers are possible Friday Night into the day Saturday as cyclonic flow persist over the region behind low pressure over the Maritimes. Weak surface high pressure will build in from the west during the day Sunday and into Monday as cyclonic flow persist aloft. Strong high pressure will build in from the west Tuesday and crest over the region Wednesday. The high will then move off to the east into the Atlantic Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR over northern terminals in -sn shud improve to MVFR by 14z-15z this morning. Next storm will bring IFR restrictions back into terminals after 05z tonight. IFR expected at BGR and BHB through 15z in low cigs with restrictions rising briefly to MVFR. IFR will once again move in around 00z tonight with brief -rasn at BGR and -ra at BHB. SHORT TERM: VFR Conditions are expected Thursday Night into Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA will expire at 12z for the intracoastal waters. With expiration of gale warning have issued SCA for the outer waters through 00z tonight. Winds may approach gale force late tonight into Thur morning. SHORT TERM: Will use a blend of the NAM, GFS and WCMWF for sustained wind speed through Friday then transition to Super Blend winds. For Waves: Expect southerly swell 8 feet/9 seconds Thursday Night, subsiding to 4 feet/9 seconds by late Friday. This wave system will continue to subside Friday Night into Saturday as a secondary northeasterly wind wave develops Saturday. North to Northwest wind wave (2 feet/4 seconds) will dominate Sunday. Will use the Near Shore Wave Model Thursday Night and Friday then transition to the Wave Watch III. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Storm Watch from 1 AM EST Thursday through Thursday afternoon for MEZ001>004. MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...VJN/Mignone Marine...VJN/Mignone

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