Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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509 FXUS61 KCAR 210453 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1253 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build south of the area through Thursday. A cold front will approach Thursday night and cross the region Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1255 AM update...High pressure continues to build to our south early this morning. Other than a few high clouds, clear skies dominate, along with light winds. Overnight lows will be in the 50s in most locations. The forecast is in good shape, so just made minor tweaks to temps and winds to match current observations. No significant changes were needed. Previous Discussion... Another decent day heading our way Thursday w/warmer temperatures. Another disturbance in the upper levels is forecast by the short range guidance including the GFS20 and NAM to swing across the region early Thursday w/some high cloudiness. Sunshine will be prevalent throughout the day on Thursday w/temps warming well into the 80s. Interior Downeast regions could hit the upper 80s as the winds remain more of sw component of 230-240 which is more a land component. Even the coast has the shot to hit lower 80s until winds turn more ssw later in the afternoon. Dewpoints will be on the rise through the upper 50s to lower 60s. A pre-frontal trof is shown to apch the area from the w late in the afternoon. There appears to enough lift and instability to set off a shower or tstms along the Maine- Quebec border. SB/MU CAPES are forecast to reach 500-800 joules w/850-700mb lapse rates around 6.0 c/km. PWATS of 1.3 inches and 0-6km shear of 25 kts is enough to get convection going. Decided to lean w/bringing 20-30% in right across the wnw by later in the afternoon(21-00Z).
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure to our south combined with a cold front and surface trough of low pressure dropping in from the northwest will bring increasing humidity Thursday night. Some thunderstorms will likely form in the St. Lawrence valley to our west Thursday night as the low level jet feeds warm moist air north into that region ahead of the surface trough. Some of those storms may stray into northwestern areas late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Otherwise, Friday will be mostly cloudy and humid with a good chance for thunderstorms across the area as the cold front approaches. Capes are progged to be up to 1500 J/KG and some moderate shear is expected across the region so a few of the storms may be strong with gusty winds and hail. Storms will taper off Friday evening as the cold front pushes through. However, a surface trough will linger over the Downeast region. The combination of the lingering surface trough and cooler air moving in aloft will bring another chance for some thunderstorms on Saturday, but Saturday`s storms will likely be smaller and more spotty. The best chance for storms Saturday will be across central and Downeast areas in association with the trough in that region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will build in from the northwest Saturday night into Sunday as the front pushes off to the east. This should bring plenty of sunshine on Sunday followed by a clear night Sunday night. Monday should begin mostly sunny with high pressure still in control. Some clouds will increase late in the day ahead of the next trough of low pressure approaching from the west and some thunderstorms may stray into far western areas at the end of the day. Showers and some thunderstorms will be possible Monday night into Tuesday as the trough and surface cold front move through. This looks similar to recent thunderstorm events with warm, humid air pushing up from the southwest beneath relatively cooler air moving in aloft with the approaching upper level trough. Wednesday should bring clearing with dry weather expected on Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally VFR conditions are expected across the region overnight through Thursday. However, locally variable conditions could occur across northern areas Thursday afternoon with any showers or thunderstorms. SHORT TERM: Conditions will likely lower to MVFR Thursday night and be MVFR, but potentially quite variable on Friday in scattered showers and thunderstorms. MVFR conditions Saturday will improve to VFR late, but may remain MVFR Downeast into Saturday evening. VFR conditions are expected in high pressure Sunday and Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels overnight through Thursday. SHORT TERM: An SCA may be needed Friday into Friday evening for a strong southwesterly breeze ahead of a cold front. Conditions should then be below sca late Friday night through Monday with high pressure building over the area at the start of next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hastings/Hewitt Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Hastings/Hewitt/Bloomer Marine...Hastings/Hewitt/Bloomer

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