Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191950 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 350 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LOPRES LOCATED IN CNTRL QUEBEC AND WL HEAD EAST OVRNGT. QUESTION CONTINUES TO CNTR AROUND THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTN/EVNG. AS OF 19Z BEST INSTABILITY (AROUND 1000 J/KG) STILL EXISTS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND IN AREAS WHERE SKIES WERE ABLE TO CLR THIS MRNG. CHCS ARE WANING FOR THUNDER TDA AND HV BACKED OFF ON MENTION IN GRIDS UNTIL CLOSER TO 22Z BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. GUT FEELING IS THAT AS THIS LINE OF STORMS PUSHES EAST IT WL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR. THUS HV KEPT JUST A MENTION OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS NORTH AND WEST OF A GREENVILLE TO FORT KENT LINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CURRENTLY AT CLAYTON LAKE, TEMPS HV SHOT UP TO 68F WITH A DWPT OF 60F. IN CONTRAST FRENCHVILLE SITS AT 56/54. CDFNT BISECTS STATE 06Z AND SLIDES EAST FM THERE. LINE OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES BNDRY THRU THE CWA THRU DAYBREAK WITH JUST MINIMAL QPF EXPECTED AS LINE WEAKENS. EXPECT CAA TO MV IN FOLLOWING FROPA ACRS THE NORTH BUT TEMPS RMN IN THE L50S FOR DOWNEAST SXNS. MAIN H5 S/WV WL SKIRT NORTH OF THE STATE DRG THE DAY TOMORROW WITH MAIN COLD POOL NORTH OF CWA. EXPECT AN ISOLD SHOWER TO EXIST ACRS THE FAR NORTH DRG THE MRNG HRS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, USHERING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AS SUCH, EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IT`LL BE CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, THOUGH SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOTE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT, BUT GIVEN THE DRY AT THE SURFACE, FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 60 ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT DOWNEAST AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS A BIT WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT IT`LL BE COOL ON FRIDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE CHILLY, WITH SATURDAY`S HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. IT`LL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WARMER AND DRY FOR THE MOST PART ON MEMORIAL DAY, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL THREATEN ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MARCHES ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AT TERMINALS. POTENTIAL FOR VCTS AT FVE BTWN 22Z AND 02Z WITH -SHRA AT CAR AFTER 00Z. REMAINDER OF TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE TONIGHT. AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND COLD FRONT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25KTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET AND WITH JUST MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEING MET HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY, BUT DON`T EXPECT OPTIMAL MIXING DUE TO THE COLD WATERS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL AND HELP KEEP SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS

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