Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 291151 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 651 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track across the region Tonight into Wednesday. Another area of low pressure will move through Wednesday night into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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645 am update... Other than to ingest current obs and increase low-lvl stratus acrs nrn zones for the next few hrs, no chgs needed at this time. Prev discussion blo... Next system on track to affect CWA is currently affecting the Plains and the Midwest. Sfc low is sitting in the vicinity of Fargo ND with occluded bndry extending sewd into the Great Lks states. Pcpn is occurring along bndry fm UP of MI twd the mid- Atlantic. Regional echoes showing up in srn New England but only pcpn being recorded by sfc obs is well back to the west in NY state. Thus, hv delayed pops by an hr or two this aftn as airmass takes awhile to saturate down. Once pcpn mvs in it wl quickly ovrsprd region as warm advection spills acrs the state with 35-50kt llj punching in fm the sw. Latest GFS initialized aloft too warm by a degree or two acrs the Plains whereas NAM was closer to reality. Therefore am leaning more twd cooler NAM wrt ptype for tda with a little wiggle room for GFS soln. NAM BUFKIT sndgs show all snow from HUL to Clayton Lake line north thru the entire event, though may see some sleet briefly mix in at times along this line. Along a MLT-GNR line expect snow to start approx 20z with perhaps a snow, sleet or rain mix aft 06z depending on sfc temps. Aft 06z, begin to see drying in the dendrite zone but it is possible seeder-feeder mechanism wl kick in to add ice crystals fm aloft. If not, expect that rain/fzra may occur thru daybreak bfr pcpn winds down. Further south, the cooler NAM is showing all liquid south of Bangor down to the coast therefore hv opted not to expand advisory further south. Storm total snow is similar to what prior shift issued with 6-8 inches acrs nrn zones with perhaps a slight nudge to the south by approx 20 miles or so. May see a trace of frzg rain at some point drg the night as warm air works in aloft, hwvr sndgs are indicating vry little in the way of a warm lyr and warming isothermally down to the sfc.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure is expected to move eastward out of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday Morning as weak high pressure builds across the state. Another area of low pressure will approach from the west Wednesday evening. This system is expected to redevelop in the gulf of Maine late Wednesday Night into Thursday. The new low will move off to the northeast into the Maritimes late in the day Thursday. Since warmer air is forced in ahead of this system as it approaches from the west, significant snow will be confined to northern and northwestern areas on Thursday. Will use a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM for all girds. Snow amounts from snow ratios and QPF amounts. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The low pressure system will continue to move away to the Northeast Thursday Night into the weekend but cyclonic circulation behind the low will cause snow and rain showers to persist across the region into the weekend. Strong high pressure is then expected to build in from the west Sunday into Monday. The high is then expected to crest over the region Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR at FVE through 15z this morning as low-level stratus remains. Expect cigs to rise to MVFR by this time. MVFR stratus has dissipated at CAR, PQI and HUL with MVFR expected to move in by 21z this afternoon. MVFR restrictions expected at BGR and BHB between 19z and 22z in -ra (BHB) and -rasn (BGR). Expect all terminals to be IFR tonight through end of TAF valid time. SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday. MVFR/VFR conditions are expected Friday and Saturday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will gust abv 25kts this aftn as seas come up abv 5ft in srly swell. SCA for intracoastal this aftn with Gale Warning for outer waters fm 00z to 07z tonight with winds gusting ovr 35kts. Will likely need to re-issue SCA for outer waters once winds diminish blo gale levels. SHORT TERM: Will use a blend of the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF for sustained winds: For waves: A southerly fetch develops from the Gulf of Maine southward early Wednesday with waves building to 4-5 feet/9 seconds. This will be accompanied by a secondary northeasterly wind wave across the gulf of Maine Thursday as a northeasterly flow develops. Will use the Near Shore Wave Model to populate wave grids. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ002-005-006. Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ001-003-004-010. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ011-031-032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ052. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Farrar/Mignone Marine...Farrar/Mignone

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