Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240000 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 757 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east of the region tonight. High pressure will cross the region Sunday. A warm front will cross the region Monday. A cold front then crosses the region Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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750 PM Update: Adjusted the pops to fit the latest radar loop showing a cluster of storms back across northern Piscataquis County and another area dropping sse across eastern Aroostook County. This activity was firing along an instability and moisture convergence axis. Heavy rainfall w/this action and gusty winds can be expected. Latest MRMS radar showed up to 1.00/hr of rainfall. This could lead to some minor flooding. Activity further s has dropped off as it ran into a more stable environment. Did receive reports of some lightning strikes in Machias and 1/4 inch hail. Action across the north will end by 11 pm. Some patchy fog can be expected by early Sunday morning and this was added to the forecast. Previous Discussion... High pressure will then build in from the west later tonight into Sunday bringing clearing skies from west to east. Sunday will be mostly sunny in western and Downeast areas and sunny to partly cloudy over the far northeast as the high builds in. Temps will still be warm but the humidity will be just a bit lower than today as slightly drier air moves in.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will cross the region Sunday night with mostly clear skies. A warm front will cross the region Monday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front then crosses the region Monday night keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. The cold front moves east of the region early Tuesday. However, an upper level disturbance will cross the region. Expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms across northern areas Tuesday, with partly sunny skies along with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Downeast. Temperatures will be at slightly above normal levels Monday/Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will build across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday night with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies. A cold front will approach the region Thursday with a chance of showers/thunderstorms in advance of the front. Uncertainty then develops Friday into Saturday regarding how rapidly the front moves through the area. The front could stall across the region Friday into Saturday which would keep the chance of showers across the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to be at slightly above normal levels Wednesday/Thursday, with near normal level temperatures Friday/Saturday. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Locally IFR or MVFR conditions are possible in any thundershowers early this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across the region tonight through Sunday. SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions Sunday night into early Monday. Variable conditions will then occur Monday afternoon through Monday night with showers and thunderstorms. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across mostly northern areas Tuesday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, with generally VFR conditions Downeast. VFR conditions are expected across the entire region Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A few thunderstorms may effect coastal areas early this evening. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to be below SCA tonight through Sunday. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels Sunday night through Tuesday. Could have a chance of showers/thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Visibilities will also be reduced in areas of fog Monday night into early Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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