Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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202 FXUS61 KCAR 230159 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 959 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east of the region this evening. An occluded front will cross the region later tonight. Weak high pressure will then return across the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest later Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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10 pm update... Showers hv pretty much pushed out of wrn zones as fast as they`ve moved in. Updated grids to reflect thin line of showers racing thru the area tonight. Other than that all else looks to be on track. Hv added patchy fog into swrn sxns of CWA thru most of the ovrngt bfr dissipating shortly aft daybreak as sw winds kick in. Prev discussion blo... An amplifying upper ridge that kept the area dry today will slide east this evening and a weak occluded front will enter the area with shower activity. Most of the showers will cross the region before 2am and precipitation will become light rain and drizzle as the occlusion draws closer late tonight. Overall precipitation amounts will generally be near a tenth of an inch. There had been some expectation that coastal areas could see up to a quarter inch with a low pressure system developing along the front, but that low is now expected to pass much further south of the state during Tuesday...and is no longer a factor in the forecast. There is some marginal upper level instability towards the Saint John Valley after midnight, but not strong enough to prompt mention of isolated thunderstorms at this point. A drying southwest wind will follow the occlusion tomorrow morning. This will lift low clouds fairly quickly tomorrow and allow highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Some afternoon sunshine is probable with just some fair weather cumulus. Even areas closer to the coast should warm up...and have used bias- corrected guidance to compensate for models keeping it too cool along the coast. The upper low associated with the occlusion is expected to fill quickly and ride well north of the area. With the resultant weak ridging aloft and at the surface, did not feel compelled to include any afternoon showers.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models` slowing trend continues regarding rain onset for next event. Looks like rain will hold off until late Thursday at least, probably beginning Thursday night. Weak ridging aloft Tuesday night to Thursday, with a gradual shift from low level offshore to low level onshore flow. Temperatures near average. Generally partly cloudy, becoming mostly cloudy Thursday as moisture begins to increase from the southwest ahead of next system. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Likelihood of rain Thursday night to Friday as a decent upper level low moves through with a likely surface low in the Gulf of Maine. Enough models and ensembles have the rain that opted to bump up precip chances some for the event, with 80 percent PoPs from central to Downeast. Event has the potential to produce in the neighborhood of an inch of rain. No threat of snow. Also, any threat of thunderstorms looks minimal. Cooler air moving in behind the system Friday night, although there`s a fair amount of uncertainty in how cool the airmass is behind the system. If the colder range of possibilities transpires and everything works out just right, can`t rule out frost Saturday night. Weekend looking mostly dry. Next rain chance is around Monday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR at BGR and BHB before lowering to IFR after 02z. VFR across the north through about 03z tonight before lowering to MVFR as -ra moves in from the west. Conditions will lower to IFR between 04 and 06z and persist until after daybreak when weak front goes through. VFR returns to all terminals late morning with exception of BHB. SHORT TERM: VFR Tuesday night through Thursday inland. From Bangor to Coastal Downeast, potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings from marine layer late Wednesday night into Thursday. Widespread IFR likely Thursday night into Friday with the next rain event. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The only two issues of note will be some fog rolling in later tonight through Tuesday morning and a gradually increasing south swell that could reach near 3 ft by late Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions possible Thursday and Friday with the next system. Before then, below small craft. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/MCW Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...Farrar/MCW/Foisy Marine...Farrar/MCW/Foisy

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