Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 202337 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 737 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will develop to the west of the area and drag a warm front through Maine tonight. A secondary low will develop in the Gulf of Maine Friday night and will slowly lift across Maine Saturday. The low will slowly lift north of the area Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 735 pm update... Showers spreading into CWA fm the west this evng. Quick update to ingest hrly temps and dwpts with just vry minor chgs to pops this evng as fcst looks to be on track fm dayshift. Prev discussion blo... Clouds will continue to thicken tonight with temperatures dropping very little and dew points rising through the night. This will cause areas of fog by later tonight for Bangor and the Down East region. In terms of rain, most of the rain will be towards northwest Aroostook County before midnight. This rain will be associated with the warm front which will be northwest of the state by Friday morning. Behind the warm front, a very moist marine layer will advect northward under the frontal inversion. While a weak shortwave will cross the forecast area late tonight into Friday morning with a period of steady rain, the day will be more characterized by light rain and drizzle due to the very moist air. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 60s for Bangor and the Down East region, but will only reach the mid 50s towards Fort Kent and Madawaska. Fog will reform later Friday afternoon for the entire forecast area and thicken into the evening. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Rain will continue right into early Saturday. Low pres linking up w/a sub tropical system Friday night is forecast to lift n into the state by early Saturday. Upper level difluence coupled w/good llvl convergence will lend support to decent rainfall. Warm cloud processes combined w/a strong se inflow Friday night into Saturday morning will allow for some heavy rainfall. Lending support to the heavy rainfall will be PWATS above 1.75 inches and mid level lapse rates of 6.0 c/km. GFS soundings hinted at the potential for elevated convection but the 12Z NAM was not as supportive. Confidence attm is low for convection and therefore decided to leave out any mention of tstms for this forecast cycle. Midnight crew can assess this further w/the later model guidance. One thing for sure is that upslope favoredareas such as the Mt. Katahdin region back through western Piscataquis County into the North Maine will see at least 2 inches of rainfall over a 36-42 hr period. This could lead to some minor flooding issues. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts are forecast to 1 to 1.5 inches. Decided to carry areas of fog Friday night w/the ese inflow and mild air. Rain looks like it will transition to showers by later Saturday as the low lifts through western Maine. Colder air will arrive Saturday night into Sunday w/westerly winds picking w/the gradient tightening. This will lead to windy conditions for Sunday. Some snow could actually mix in w/the rain by early Sunday morning out in the western areas above 700 feet or so. Temperatures by Sunday morning are forecast to hit the mid to upper 30s in the west and northwest areas while further e, readings will be in the 40s. Cold and damp day on Sunday w/daytime temps only in the 40s throughout the CWA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unsettled and below normal into the mid week as it looks attm. Low pres will spin over the Gulf of the St. Lawrence right into Tuesday w/rain showers during the day and the potential for some rain/snow showers across the west and northwest at night. Daytime temps expected to be in the 40s and overnight lows in the 30s. The low pres system will move e on Wednesday w/high pres forecast to build toward the region from Canada on Thursday. This will mean drier by still colder air right into Wednesday. Daytime temps expected run below normal w/readings mainly in the 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: All terminals starting out VFR then quickly giving way to MVFR and eventually IFR after 12z for northern terminals and after 09z at BHB and BGR. Expect IFR restrictions to continue thru 00z Sat. Cannot rule out LLWS around 12z for BGR and BHB but confidence is not high enough to include in terminal forecasts at this time. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR Friday night into Saturday w/some llws possible. Some improvement possible for KBGR and KBHB to MVFR Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening w/even a period of VFR. Northern terminals will remain IFR through Saturday evening. Another band of showers or period rain on Sunday will allow for IFR/MVFR conditions throughout the region. There is the potential for improvement to VFR for KBGR and KBHB on Monday w/the wnw flow allowing for downsloping and drying. Further n, MVFR conditions. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The SCA will remain in place without change. Winds will pick up later tonight with gusts reaching 30 kts late tonight into early Friday morning. Seas will also increase to as much as 8 feet in the outer waters. Seas and winds will slowly decrease through Friday and the question will be whether to extend the SCA or go with a gale watch for Saturday night. SHORT TERM: SCA into Saturday w/winds gusting to 30 kts and waves building to 10 ft. There looks to be a good chance for things to transition to Gale Force as colder air and wnw winds take hold Saturday night into Sunday. Decided to carry wind gusts to near 40s kts especially for the outer zones into Sunday based on the gradient tightening up and the winds to mix down to the colder waters. && .HYDROLOGY... Heavy rainfall expected Friday into Saturday will lead to substantial rises on streams and rivers. Rainfall totals of 1-2+ inches of rainfall are expected w/2+ inches of rainfall across the Piscataquis basin and western branch of the Penobscot River to name a few. The Since streams and rivers are running below normal level, rainfall will be added benefit especially across the central and downeast areas. There is the risk of some nuisance issues such as clogged storm drains and ponding of water, especially in low lying areas. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/MCW Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Farrar/MCW/Hewitt Marine...Farrar/MCW/Hewitt Hydrology...Hewitt is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.