Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 250540 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1240 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1220 AM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP LN OF SHWRS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING NE AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. WE NEEDED TO INCREASE POPS OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHGS WERE MADE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NGT BASED ON TRENDS NOTED FROM OBSVD 11 PM AND MDNGT TEMPS. PREV DISC: HRLY TEMPS NEEDED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD AS READINGS ARE WELL INTO THE 50S ALL THE WAY TO THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINING UP OVER QUEBEC AND SLOWLY MOVING E. THERE IS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, BUT INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT THIS COOLER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE TIL SUNRISE TUESDAY. THEREFORE, OVERNIGHT MINS WERE ADJUSTED UP BY AT LEAST 3 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. DECIDED TO REMOVE THE FOG AS WELL. ANOTHER ITEM TO POINT OUT IS THAT THE RADAR LOOP INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS W/THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT AND A BOWING SEGMENT NOTED. THIS BOWING IS INDICATIVE OF SOME STRONGER WINDS WHICH MIX DOWN TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES E. THEREFORE, INCREASED THE WINDS GUSTS TO 40- MPH FOR NOW AS THE SOUNDINGS POINT TO THIS POTENTIAL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD ALSO STILL HAVE AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... COOLER AIR FILTERS IN ON WESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING. ALL EYES THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM. HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTH/EAST OF A HOULTON, MILLINOCKET, GREENVILLE LINE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES, MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH. ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE THE FURTHER WEST TRACK AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS, WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR QPF AND SNOW TOTALS. CURRENT TRACK WOULD MEAN MOSTLY SNOW EXCEPT FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX RIGHT ALONG THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE ONSET WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DUE TO LOW DEWPOINTS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING. WIND DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TOO BIG OF A DEAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND FOR A BIT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH, BUT WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS WITH THE STORM BACK AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH. SOMETHING WE EMPHASIZED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND WILL EMPHASIZE HERE: IF YOUR TRAVEL PLANS ARE FLEXIBLE AT ALL, GO EARLY! PRECIPITATION DOESN`T BEGIN IN NORTHERN/EASTERN MAINE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TO BE SAFE, IF YOUR DESTINATION IS IN NORTHERN/EASTERN MAINE, AIM TO ARRIVE BY MID AFTERNOON. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING TO POINTS SOUTHWEST OF BANGOR, YOU NEED TO TRY TO ARRIVE EARLIER. THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY FOR POINTS FURTHER SOUTHWEST IN NEW ENGLAND. IF YOUR DESTINATION IS SOUTHWEST OF MAINE, TRAVELING TUESDAY INSTEAD OF WEDNESDAY MAY BE WISE. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT, IT COULD APPROACH ZERO IN SOME AREAS IF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP JUST RIGHT. THEN THE AIRMASS QUICKLY WARMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN, SNOW, AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT STORM, HOWEVER. THEN DRYING OUT AND COOLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY. SHORT AND LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR TUESDAY NIGHT TO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WINTER STORM. PRECIPITATION, MAINLY FALLING AS SNOW, WILL BRING MOST AREAS TO IFR OR WORSE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY WITH VFR RETURNING LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. NEXT SHOT AT IFR COMES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM...DECIDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS ARE DOWN TO 25 KTS W/SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS. SEAS ARE UP TO 14 FT W/11 SECOND PERIOD. ADJUSTED THE WAVE HEIGHTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SHORT AND LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SEAS OVER 5 FEET TUESDAY EVENING WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS THEN COME BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT STORM. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...VJN/FOISY MARINE...VJN/FOISY

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