Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 130502 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 102 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cross the area tonight then move east of the region Friday. A cold front will approach from the northwest Friday night and move into the area on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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110 AM Update... Added some fog into the forecast for the overnight period as conditions look to be favorable for some radiation fog to develop. Frost wording kept in the forecast as temps already down in the upper 20s across sites across northern Maine. Hrly temps were adjusted to fit the current conditions. Satl IR imagery showed some high clouds spilling across the region but very thin w/no hindrance for temps to drop further overnight. Expecting many areas seeing readings below 32F by sunrise. Previous Discussion... The high will move to the east into the Atlantic tomorrow and keep clear skies over the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main concern for the weekend is windy and showery conditions on Sunday, with a few showers around on Saturday. A weak warm front will lift northward across the state Friday night, along with scattered showers. Increasing moisture and southwest flow will keep temperatures in the 40s overnight, likely rising toward daybreak. The warm front lifts to our north on Saturday and while a few rain showers can`t be ruled out, expect most areas will remain dry with temperatures in the 60s. The warm front will then slip back south Saturday night as a cold front. It`ll make it down into central areas, ushering in some drier air, but the front will then lift back north early Sunday as low pressure slides up to our west. Hence there should be a wide range in low temps Saturday night, ranging from around 40 in the north to the mid 50s Downeast. For Sunday...the aforementioned low will lift to our west, deepening as it does so. Meanwhile, the attendant cold front will cross the Great Lakes and approach northwestern Maine by late in the day. More widespread showers are expected, especially across the north. However, the bigger concern is a strong low level jet which will develop out ahead of the cold front. These winds will lie just off the ground and could well mix down to the surface, especially if we see much sunshine. Have stayed with max gusts around 30 mph for now, but would not be surprised to see gusts in the 40 mph range, particularly right ahead of the front. Highs on Sunday will be in the 60s, warmest for the Bangor area which will approach 70. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The cold front will push across the region Sunday night, followed by a much cooler and drier airmass. Showers will come to an end by Monday morning. Dry conditions will then continue through the middle of the week as high pressure build over the area. The only exception will be the chance for a few showers on Tuesday and Tuesday night with an upper trough swinging through. Monday and Tuesday will be the coldest days of the week with highs ranging from the upper 40s in the Saint John Valley to the mid 50s Downeast while lows are in the 30s. Then we`ll see a gradual warming trend Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region overnight through Friday. SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions are likely through the weekend as a series of frontal passages keep showers around, especially on Sunday. Sunday will likely be breezy with gusts to 30 kt possible. The showers come to an end by 12z Monday with a cold frontal passage. VFR will prevail thereafter, with just some local IFR in patchy valley fog possible early each morning. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels overnight through Friday. Have used the NAM for surface winds Friday. For Waves: Expect northeasterly wind wave to be the primary wave system (2 feet/5 seconds) tonight and Friday with a secondary long period swell group from the southeast (1 foot/9-10 seconds). Will use the Nearshore wave prediction system for waves. SHORT TERM: A Small Craft Advisory Saturday night but better chances exist later Sunday and Sunday night. South winds will increase to around 20 kt Saturday night as a warm front lifts north of the waters, and seas will build to around 4 feet. Marginal SCA conditions are possible. However, a strengthening low pressure will lift west of the waters, increasing winds to 25-30 kt and building seas to 7 to 10 ft Sunday afternoon and night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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