Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271922 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 322 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY. COULDN`T RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW IN A FEW SPOTS, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE REST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON THURSDAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS AN UPR TROF MOVES AWAY TOWARD GREENLAND, SKIES WILL CLEAR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT TERM AS THE SFC HIGH AND A SHALLOW UPR RIDGE CONTROL THE WEATHER. THU NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER THE BUILDING HIGH AND CLEAR SKIES, WITH PARTS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS GETTING BELOW 15F. HIGHS BELOW NRML ON FRI WILL MOVE CLOSE TO NRML ON SAT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FORECAST BECOMES SOMEWHAT MESSY AND UNCERTAIN IN THE LONG TERM. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPR TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT THRU TUE. HOWEVER, THE EXACT TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES APPEARS QUITE UNCERTAIN, WITH SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE AMONG GUIDANCE. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM A LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA TO A LOW PASSING RIGHT OVER THE CWA WITH AMPLE RAIN, AND SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW AN INVERTED TROF FROM SRN NEW ENG TO THE ST. LAWR VLY WHILE OTHERS DON`T. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AND LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY, GENERALLY TOOK SUPERBLEND POPS AND JUST TONED THEM DOWN A BIT AND MADE MINOR OTHER TWEAKS. ALL POPS STAY AT 50 PCT OR LESS FOR NOW, UNTIL MORE CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS. TEMPS FOR NOW ARE FCST TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO CLIMATE NORMS, BUT THIS WILL LKLY CHANGE AS THE OTHER ASPECTS OF THE FCST EVOLVE.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, THOUGH CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG ON CALM, CLEAR NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: CURRENTLY FCST ENTIRE SHORT TERM TO HAVE CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA, BUT WILL MONITOR BORDERLINE N-NE WIND GUSTS THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...KREDENSOR LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...DUDA/KREDENSOR MARINE...DUDA/KREDENSOR

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