Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 112317 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 617 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach tonight and track to our west on Thursday. A cold front will cross the state Thursday night. Arctic high pressure will approach on Friday and build over the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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615pm Update... Only change was to raise temperatures a touch next few hours. Still expect increasing clouds and increasing temperatures as the after mid-evening. Previous Discussion... Another round of rain expected for the region late tonight and Thursday. Weak high pressure will briefly build over the region this evening, allowing clearing to continue. However, expect lingering low-level moisture from this morning`s rain to become trapped under the subsidence inversion, particularly Downeast. Hence, expect a stratus deck to develop late this evening and lift northward overnight as south flow becomes re-established ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Meanwhile, mid and high clouds will also spread over the region late tonight as the low lifts to our northwest. This all points to a bit of a complex temperature forecast; clearing will allow for some cooling early but then temperatures will likely rise through much of the night. Precipitation associated with the aforementioned low will begin to move into our southwestern sections after midnight and into far northeastern Aroostook County around daybreak. This precipitation will fall as rain for the Bangor region and Downeast, but can`t rule out some light freezing rain across the northern Maine and the Central Highlands. However, any ice accumulation will be minimal; it`ll take a while for the column to moisten up enough to allow precipitation to reach the ground, which should allow temperatures to rise near or above freezing in all but the most sheltered valleys before the bulk of the rain arrives. Low pressure will slide to our northwest on Thursday, keeping steady rain across the region through the day. Temperatures will be mild once again; the Saint John Valley will approach 40F while the coast will flirt with 50F. Winds won`t be nearly as strong tomorrow as what we saw today, though coastal areas may see some gusts to 30 mph.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday evening will begin warm with showers and fog as low pressure tracking through the St. lawrence valley lifts up to our north. A strong cold front will follow the low Thursday night as rain showers end, possibly as some snow showers over northern and western spots. Friday will then be sunny to partly cloudy. Strong cold advection and high winds aloft will result in very gusty winds Friday as low pressure continues moving away to the north and Arctic high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures Friday will plunge into the teens up north and the 20s Downeast. This will give way to a mostly clear and very cold night Friday night. Arctic high pressure will build just south of the region on Saturday. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy over the far north as a shortwave slides through Quebec. Downeast will be mostly sunny. Temperatures Saturday will be well below normal, in the single digits north and teens Downeast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Benign but chilly weather appears likely for the start of next week. A few snow showers can`t be ruled out Sunday as the base of a 500mb trof slides across the state, but for now kept it out of the forecast. As the high slides off to the southeast and winds turn SW`ly, a warming trend is expected from later Mon onward. The GFS and ECMWF are closer in timing for the next system compared to 24 hours ago, but still have 6-12 hours of difference. however, now it is the ECMWF being faster, whereas yesterday it was more than 24 hours slower than the GFS and CMC. Regardless, have gone around 50 POPs for Wed due to the better timing. it could be another snow-to-rain event, as there will be no `fresh` cold air in place and the low will pass to our northwest. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected through 03z Thursday. Then ceilings will lower to below 1000 ft from south to north overnight as a stratus deck becomes established. This deck will reach Houlton by 12z Thursday, and Frenchville by 16z Thursday. Rain will spread from southwest to northeast overnight into Thursday morning, with some pockets of light freezing rain at KFVE, KCAR, and KPQI 08z-11z. LLWS will once again be a concern overnight for the northern terminals. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds, rain and fog Thursday evening will improve to MVFR late in the evening then VFR overnight. VFR conditions are then expected Friday through Saturday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Extended small craft until the gale watch Thursday evening. Winds are falling below small craft levels now but seas remain at small craft levels. Tomorrow during the day winds will bump back up to small craft levels. Opted not to get cute and just issued a generic small craft for the whole period. SHORT TERM: A gale watch is up for Thursday evening for winds gusting up to 35 kt across the offshore waters. Gales will likely be needed again on Friday for strong gusty westerly winds as Arctic air returns.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ050>052. Gale Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday night for ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ Near Term...Foisy/Hastings Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...Foisy/Hastings/Bloomer Marine...Foisy/Hastings/Bloomer

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