Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 202302 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 602 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area Overnight then move east Saturday. A weak cold front will cross the region Saturday night. New high pressure will build north of the region Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will then intensify along the mid Atlantic coast Monday and will move north toward the area on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 545 PM Update: Minor chgs were made to fcst hrly temps, dwpts, winds, wind gusts and cld cvr thru the ovrngt based on latest trends from sfc obs and sat imagery. No chgs were made to fcst ovrngt lows attm due to a lack of a definitive trend attm. Lastly, with a weak upper lvl disturbance movg SE from Cntrl QB toward Nrn New Brunswick late tngt into Sat morn, we added sct sn flurries to Nrn ptns of the FA durg this tm pd while utilizing cld cvr as a starting proxy for PoPs and assigning flurries to >9 percent. Orgnl Disc: Weak high pressure will remain over the area tonight and then dissipate on Saturday as a new high rebuilds to our north. Tranquil weather will continue tonight and Saturday with the greatest forecast challenge being cloud cover. A mid level layer of stratus remains across the area and will likely persist tonight into Saturday thinning a bit at times. Temperatures will run nearly 15 degrees above normal tonight and Saturday with lows tonight in the 20s across the area and highs Saturday above freezing across the region. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Above Normal temps expected for this term and for the longer term w/a blocking pattern in place. A quiet weekend in store w/teh exception of some flurries or snow showers Saturday evening into Sunday an upper disturbance swings across the region. Temps on Sunday will run at least 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late January. Colder air is expected to slide down into the region Sunday night into Monday a high pres slides across se Canada. Overnight lows Sunday night are forecast to around 10F or so across the north and west while central and downeast should see upper teens to lower 20s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Things will get interesting come Tuesday into Wednesday as low pres moves up the coast. Discrepancy still holds w/the track of low and temperatures. The 12Z run of the Canadian Global & ECMWF remain colder w/tracking the low across Gulf of Maine and near the Bay of Fundy. This would mean frozen/freezing precip going to all rain across central and downeast areas while northern and western areas remain in frozen/freezing precip. The operational run of the GFS continued to be warmer w/its 06z & 12z runs bringing the low across eastern Maine and the potential for rain all the way to the Crown of Maine. Interestingly enough, the the GFS Ensemble is cooler w/a track of the low across Nova Scotia somewhat similar to the ECMWF & Canadian solutions. One thing to note is that the 12z run of the ECMWF did trend warmer but still keeps northern Maine colder. There does appear to be a consensus however that there will be a decent warm layer near 850-700 mbs. This layer overriding the colder air in the blyr would lend support for sleet and possible a prolonged period of it across the north and west after some snow and freezing rain. Further s into central and downeast, snow to freezing precip and then rain. Attm, decided to play it along this route but still not confident how far the warmer air will intrude. Still some uncertainty in the track and temperature profile. Confidence is high on the precip chances and that there could be a heavy dose of QPF. Used a blended solution for this forecast cycle to illustrate the freezing precip potential. At any rate, Tuesday into Wednesday looks to be messy to say the least. The other concern will be strong winds right along the coast w/splashover possible at the time of high tide. There is still plenty of time to assess this event. All the model guidance in agreement that the storm is expected to lift across the Maritimes Wednesday night into Thursday w/some colder air draining back into the region. Temps however are still forecast to remain above the norms for late January. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Conditions will vary between MVFR and VFR across the north tonight and Saturday. Mainly VFR conditions are expected Downeast tonight and Saturday but occasional MVFR conditions are possible at times. SHORT TERM: MVFR cigs hold Saturday night into Sunday w/some IFR for the northern terminals for Sunday. KBGR and KBHB should see VFR taking hold on Sunday. VFR Sunday night for the northern terminals. MVFR early Monday for KBGR and KBHB w/an ene flow developing and then an improvement to VFR looks in order. The northern terminals look like they will hold at VFR. Conditions are expected to drop to MVFR and then IFR for all terminals w/a mixed bag of precip possible. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA tonight and Saturday as high pressure remains across the waters. SHORT TERM: No headlines through Sunday. Conditions are forecast to deteriorate to SCA levels later Sunday night into Monday 20-25 kt. The potential is there for Gales later Monday into Tuesday w/ese winds increasing to 30-35 kt as the low lifts up along the coast. Seas are forecast to build to a range of 10 to 15 kt by Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...VJN/Hewitt Marine...VJN/Hewitt

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