Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 250229 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1029 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain to the south through Thursday. A cold front will cross the region Friday. High pressure builds Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1035 PM update... Added fog to the northern areas overnight due to the rainfall that occurred last night and early morning hours. Also, added fog for the coast due to s flow in place. Patchy fog already showing up on some buoys in the Gulf of Maine. Adjusted the sky conditions to account for cirrus moving into the region. Most of the cirrus was thin but is forecast to thicken up overnight. Hrly temps/dewpoints were adjusted to match up better w/the latest trends. Previous Discussion... It will remain mild overnight, thanks to S-SW`ly winds keeping dewpts elevated and allowing for warm advection, as well. A weak disturbance in the form of a very shallow 500mb trof moving thru the ridge will cross the CWA Thurs afternoon. This will bring the risk for some shwrs and perhaps a stray t-storm to the northern areas, mainly north of a Greenville-Houlton line. Kept POPs limited to Chance and kept QPF fairly low due to the likely isolated nature of the precip and the continuing wide spread in model solutions for QPF Thurs PM. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday night will be warm with a thermal ridge along and a southwest surface flow. Have gone above guidance for lows in the mid to upper 60s and high humidity. With an approaching frontal system and the potential instability on Thursday night, have gone with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms for much of the forecast area. Patchy fog and low clouds will tend to develop later in the night with an onshore flow and continue into early morning. The fog and low clouds will persist longer on Friday along the coast. Will continue the chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday with the approaching cold front. The chances of any stronger thunderstorms remains in question due to the timing of the surface front and the upper level shortwave ejecting from the Great Lakes region. Shear is impressive, but CAPE is not. The best combination of CAPE and shear currently appears to be in northeast Aroostook County in the afternoon with the cold frontal passage, but confidence is not high enough to add enhanced wording at this time. Once the front is through, high pressure builds Friday night and Saturday with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure centered over the area will produce a relatively chilly Saturday night. Can`t rule out readings near 40F in the Allagash. Most the forecast area will have lows in the 40s except Bangor and the Down East region where low 50s are anticipated. Pleasant highs in the 70s with low humidity continues Sunday. A frontal system crosses Sunday night into Monday with timing still uncertain. Due to the timing uncertainties, did not specify thunderstorms for Monday afternoon. Regardless of the model, high pressure is expected to return Monday night into Tuesday night. Another front is possible towards Wednesday with a chance of showers towards the Crown of Maine. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect mainly VFR conditions thru Thurs, with two exceptions. One will be the possibility for patchy fog in northern areas tonight (KHUL thru KFVE) - however confidence in this occurring wasn`t high enough to include it in grids or TAFs. The second possible reduction in category will be around any possible shwrs, again mainly a risk for northern terminals. SHORT TERM: Most of the period will be VFR. The exceptions will be later Thursday night into Friday morning when IFR cigs are possible. These IFR cigs may persist much of the day towards BHB. Thunderstorms are another concern Thursday night and Friday. Patchy valley fog is possible towards sunrise on Sunday morning. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will both remain below SCA thresholds for tonight into early Thurs. However, wind gusts and seas are both forecast to build close to SCA levels Thurs afternoon and evening, but at this time it is borderline, so will leave it to later shifts to make a call on an advisory. Onshore winds could lead to some patchy fog later tonight, which could hang on through the day Thurs. SHORT TERM: Fog will develop Thursday night and continue Friday. Winds will be near 20kts on Thursday night with seas in the 4 to 5 ft range...but decrease Friday into Saturday. A thunderstorm or two is possible Friday afternoon. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...Kredensor/Norton/MCW Marine...Kredensor/Norton/MCW

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