Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 221407 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1007 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Storm Jose will remain southeast of Cape Cod and will slowly weaken through this weekend while High pressure both at the surface and upper atmosphere builds across the region from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 10:05 AM: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew point. No other changes. Previous Discussion... High pres will ridge down across the region from the ne providing mostly sunny conditions while Jose continues to spin and very slowly drifting s. Frontal boundary Further s, high clouds will remain the most prominent across the Downeast region w/lower clouds right along the immediate coast. These clouds will cut down on daytime temps a bit. From Bangor on north, afternoon temps will shoot well into the 70s. Radar imagery showed a line of showers showing up just offshore and moving to the ssw edging ever so closer to the coast. The GFS looked like it was doing well w/the alignment of showers but appears to be a bit overdone w/bringing measurable rainfall up 0.05" to the coast. The RAP is drier and keeps the rain shield off the coast. Surface analysis showed some weak llvl convergence setting up along the coast. This could be enough to allow a few showers to make it to the coast. Decided to keep showers off the coast w/dry air in place. The north wind of 10 to 20 mph will keep things cooler along the coast. A High Surf Advisory remains in place through the afternoon w/long period swells and large waves hitting the coastline. More on this in Tides/Coastal Flooding section below. Mostly clear tonight w/the exception of the coast as clouds will hang on but slowly erode w/time. Looking to see patchy fog develop again overnight mainly in the valley locations and along the rivers. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than they were this morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure dominates Saturday with temperatures and dew points increasing over Friday`s reading. Dew points are expected to move back into the upper 50s by later in the day. A warm front will cross Saturday night and introduce even more warm and humid air for Sunday. There is a threat of patchy fog south of Millinocket and Houlton later Saturday night into Sunday morning. Further north, increasing SW winds will be too strong for fog. Record highs are expected for Caribou and Houlton on Sunday as the previous records are 80F and 81F respectively. Bangor will also be close to the record high of 85F. Dew points will rise to the mid 60s. A weak cold front will enter northern Aroostook later in the afternoon and continue moving south Sunday night, but no real temperature relief is expected as Sunday night as lows will be near 60F and some fog can be expected with dew points near 60F too. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Monday brings another day with near record highs and continued high humidity. A cold front will arrive later in the day and sink southward Monday night. This front will bring some relief as Monday lows drop back into the 50s and Tuesday`s highs are at least 10 degrees cooler with more cloud cover as the front is expected to remain stalled over the area on Tuesday. The front returns north for Wednesday, but a moist maritime flow will maintain cloudiness on Wednesday and highs mostly in the upper 60s to near 70F. On Thursday, a cold front is expected to arrive from the northwest and bring some needed rain while Maria passes well to the southeast of the forecast area. This cold front will finally bring more fall-like dew points. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR for the most part w/the usual patchy fog that was occurring this morning. This fog was bringing vsbys down to MVFR/IFR at times across some of the northern terminals this morning. A similar setup is expected across the northern terminals tonight w/patchy fog. KBGR and KBHB will stay VFR SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail most of the period. Shallow fog is possible towards sunrise on Sunday morning south of HUL. Shallow fog will also be a possible threat later Sunday night into Monday morning. MVFR cigs with a cold front are expected Monday night into Tuesday...mostly north of HUL. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA remains in place. Winds were 20-25 kts w/seas of 6-9 ft. Long period swells of 10-11 seconds were still in place. Hazardous seas will be the main threat later today into tonight as winds drop off below 20 kts. Seas will subside some but are expected to be in the range of 5-7 ft. SHORT TERM: Swell from Jose will diminish Saturday before 5 feet. Fog will become an issue on Saturday as more humid air moves over the waters. This will continue into Monday. Swell from Maria is expected to increase Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Long period swell from Jose which is running at 11 seconds/7-9 feet continues to enter the Gulf of Maine. Waves are expected to to slowly subside into the afternoon. Have extended the High Surf Advisory into Friday afternoon. Concern is that long period waves high impact in the surf zone, can run up much higher on the shore than shorter period waves. This could result in the danger of spectators being washed into the ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents are also expected. Some minor beach erosion is possible. However, runup, splashover, flooding due to storm surge are not expected. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Mignone

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