Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 250423 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1223 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT WITH THIS UPDATE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EXCEPT IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE NORTHERN MAINE WITH FAIR AND VERY WARM WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS AND EC MODELS...WHICH WOULD INDICATE A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. WILL GO WITH THE FASTER SOLUTION WHICH FOCUSES THE THREAT ON DOWNEAST MAINE. PW LEVELS ARE AT MOST 1.5 INCHES AND GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY HYDRO ISSUES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO NORTHEAST U.S. FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL. LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS MAY BE IN THE 30S IN COLDER VALLEYS IN THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: COULD HAVE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM: THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL WILL DETERMINE THE HEIGHT OF THE SWELL IMPACTING THE GULF OF MAINE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/OKULSKI MARINE...DUDA/MCW/OKULSKI

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