Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280115 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 915 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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915 PM UPDATE...A DEEP LOW FOR LATE JUNE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE VCNTY OF KCLE AS OF 9 PM. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT WITH A SECONDARY LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NJ COAST EARLY SUN MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING. ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THE DIURNAL CU HAS DISSIPATED AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS SOME OF THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NOT MANY CHGS TO THE NEAR TERM FCST FROM LAST NGT. AFT FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVE...RN FROM THE OH VLY SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO WRN DOWNEAST AREAS OF OUR FA BY DAYBREAK AND THEN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NNE THRU THE REST OF THE FA...REACHING THE ST JOHN VLY BY LATE AFTN. MODELS CONT TO SHOW THE LION SHARE OF RNFL OVR DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH WILL HAVE THE BEST LOW TO MID LVL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON SUN...WITH NRN AREAS GETTING INTO BETTER RNFL WITH THE 700-500 MB LOW PASSAGE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. RNFL TOTALS PRIOR TO THE STEADY RNFL WINDING DOWN FROM SW TO NE LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN ARE XPCTD TO RANGE FROM LESS THAN A HLF INCH OVR THE FAR NE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVR XTRM SW HANCOCK COUNTY. ERLY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE WINDY SUN...SPCLY SUN AFTN AND ERLY EVE ALONG THE COAST AS SECONDARY SFC LOW PRES FORMS OVR THE GULF OF ME. OTHERWISE...AFT MILDER OVRNGT LOWS TNGT...HI TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...WITH ONLY FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA WHERE RNFL WILL BE DELAYED LATEST IN THE AFTN SUN AFT PERHAPS A PD OF PRTL SUNSHINE INTO MID MORN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. HAVE USED THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITONS XPCTD THRU MOST OF TNGT...THEN CLGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR IN RN FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING PREDAWN OVR DOWNEAST SITES...THEN REACHING FAR NRN TAF SITES BY LATE AFTN. IFR SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES BY LATE SUN NGT. SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY THEN IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER IN THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT GLW OVR MZ051 AND STRONG SCA FOR MZS050-051 SUN MORN INTO EVE. AN ADDITIONAL PD OF SCA WINDS AND SPCLY SEAS XPCTD INTO LATE SUN NGT SPCLY OVR THE OUTER WATERS. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS LATE TUESDAY. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM THE STORM SYSTEM SYSTEM PREVIOUS DAY. EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO SUBSIDE FROM AROUND 6 FEET/9 SECONDS EARLY MONDAY TO AROUND 4 FEET/10-11 SECONDS LATER TUESDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL USE 27TH/1200Z RUN OF THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM OUR LOCAL NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL IS INDICATING THAT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ALONG COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY. NO COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...BUT HIGH SURF WILL PRODUCE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS THIS JUNE WILL END UP AS THE 4TH COOLEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND TIED FOR THE 9TH COOLEST ON RECORD AT CARIBOU.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ029. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050- 052. GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ051. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/VJN SHORT TERM...BLOOMER/MIGNONE LONG TERM...BLOOMER/MIGNONE AVIATION...CB/VJN/BLOOMER/MIGNONE MARINE...CB/VJN/BLOOMER/MIGNONE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CB CLIMATE...CB

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