Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 061745 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1245 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will cross the area this morning. High pressure will build south of the region tonight into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1245 PM Update: Temps not falling back as quickly as advertised per the latest obs especially across the eastern areas. Adjustments were made to edge temps up a few degrees as significant colder air still back across western Quebec. Visible satl imagery showed main line of clouds associated w/the cold front across eastern sections w/sct-bkn conditions across northern and central areas. WSW winds continue to blow 10-20 mph and slight adjustments were made to account for this. Radar showed rain east of the CWA w/some scattered activity in Quebec. This activity was drying up as it moved east. Any activity that makes it into the western and northern areas will be weak and mainly in the form of snow showers or flurries. The RAP and HRRR were showing this trend well. Previous Discussion... A strong cold front continues to approach the region from the west. This system has been producing strong gusty winds and heavy rain. As the front moves through this morning the rain will briefly change to snow showers before ending and colder air will move in from the west behind the cold front. Skies are expected to clear tonight as drier and colder air moves into the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upr lvl trof wl be the main wx-maker thru the end of the week. This wl lkly give way to a few flurries in orographic lift acrs the nw on Thur. Highs on Thur will lkly top out just abv normal with lwr 30s in the north and arnd 40 for Downeast due to a persistent sw flow. Pattern wl rmn pretty stagnant thru the end of the pd with troffing resulting in sw flow with an ocnl weak s/wv zipping acrs. This wl lkly keep flurries/isold snow showers in acrs the nw in the higher terrain with vry minimal in the way of any accums. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Med range guidance is trending farther offshore with system expected ovr the weekend. CMC is furthest north and west with lopres, possibly giving srn zones a glancing blow of pcpn late Fri night whereas EC, and especially the GFS, wl lkly only bring an increase in clds for the coastal with the exception of Eastport area. Given the variation in models over the past svrl days of runs am not confident enuf to rmv pcpn for srn areas Fri night into Sat but wl go with just low chc for snow/rain thru the day. With vry little in the way of cold and/or warm air intrusions thru the first half of the weekend expect temps to continue to run nr/slightly abv normal. Flow wl turn twd the northwest on Sunday in wake of system mvg east into Canada with a brief ridge of high pressure expected on Monday. Next system wl dig south into the Great Lks on Tue with guidance indicating potential for trof to take on negative tilt by mid-week. Although details differ regarding timing, mid-week system looks to be significant at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM:Expect IFR/MVFR conditions to improve to VFR conditions later this afternoon and tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR expected Thu through Fri with perhaps an outside chance of MVFR cigs across far northern terminals in stratus thru the end of the week. Cannot rule out MVFR late Fri night into Sat morning, mainly at BHB as low pressure tracks well south of the area. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: SCA in place attm as wind were 15-20 kts w/ gusts to 25 kts. Waves: A strong southeasterly fetch across the Gulf of Maine is producing large waves. The fetch will be broken up later this morning by a wind shift into the southwest and decreasing wind speeds. Wave heights are expected to reach a maximum height of around 16 feet/8-9 seconds this morning before conditions begin to subside. Due to the limited fetch length, waves are expected to subside quickly later today and tonight with heights falling to around 5-6 feet by day break Thursday. Have used the Nearshore Wave Prediction System to initialize the wave grids. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will be at marginal SCA levels on Thursday into Friday morning mainly for the offshore waters. Conditions will drop below SCA criteria Sat into Sat night.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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