Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 021800 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OFF TO THE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1245 PM UPDATE...MADE AREAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS USING THE RADAR & THE LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOWING AN AREA SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES W/DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS. FORECAST CAPE HAS INCREASE TO 100+ JOULES SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. A QUICK INCH OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE W/WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH & VBSY INSTABILITY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS MEANS NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 20S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD HIT OR TOP 30F. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS. TOPS ON THESE SQUALLS WILL LIKELY EXCEED H700. THE SQUALLS MAY DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WITH QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. THIS WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TOWARDS PRESQUE ISLE AND CARIBOU LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE SQUALLS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE SOUTH OF HOULTON. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THESE WINDS HAVE PROMPTED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING TO 25 BELOW. THE SUBZERO WIND CHILLS WILL SPREAD ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST LATER IN THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING THEN CREST OVER THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. EXPECT OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ALSO EXPECT MOST PRECIPITATION TO BE IN FORM OF SNOW... ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR QPF.. SKY AND POPS. HAVE USED OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. MOSG25 WAS USED FOR WINDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND CREST OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. HAVE USED THE MOSG25 TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR NORTH OF HUL EARLY THIS MORNING IN SNOW...THEN PREDOMINATELY MVFR DUE TO SNOW AND CIGS THROUGH MIDDAY FOR ALL SITES. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SQUALLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR PQI...CAR AND FVE. THESE SQUALLS COULD BE HEAVY WITH 1/4 MI VIS AND 35 MPH GUSTS. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE TWO EXTRA HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND ADDED AN FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASED GUSTS WITH THE GALE TO 45 KNOTS THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12 INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>004. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE

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