Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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211 FXUS61 KCAR 030438 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1238 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TUESDAY. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH OVERNIGHT/... 1230 AM UPDATE... AREA OF RAIN IS QUICKLY MOVING NE PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. MOST AREAS TO THE SW HAVE BEGUN TO DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN AS WELL. SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR 3KM MODEL DOING WELL W/THE SETUP. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA. AS IT DOES SO, TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE N AND W AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE LOW 30S. ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TO THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRATIFORM RAIN HAS FINALLY REACHED THE STATE AS OF AN HR AGO. PATCHY RAIN CONTS ACRS THE NORTH ALONG SFC TROF. EXPECT STEADY RAIN WL MV INTO CWA SHORTLY AND WL OVERSPREAD AREA INTO THE EVNG HRS AHD OF POTENT S/WV LIFTING INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD LO-LVL MOISTURE WL CONTINUE AS PCPN PULLS EAST INTO CANADA LVG PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG PRESENT DRG THE OVRNGT. QPF AMNTS THRU MRNG WL RANGE FM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER IN DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE PW VALUES INCREASE TO NR 1.00 INCH AND 25-30KT LLJ WL BE PRESENT THRU EARLY EVNG. MAY SEE A VRY BRIEF TIMEFRAME FOR LGT SNOW TO MIX IN, MAINLY ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW AROOSTOOK. MIN TEMPS WL BE ARND 33F ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BRDR SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING. EXPECT TO SEE LOW CLDS AND FOG LINGERING THRU TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE PCPN RMNG. MAXES ON TUE WL LKLY APPCH NORMAL VALUES WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLD AIR BEING PULLED IN ON NRLY FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... OVERALL, NOT TOO BAD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN WEDGED BACK INTO MAINE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, EJECTING SHORTWAVES INTO THE NORTHEAST AS IT DOES SO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME DECIDING EXACTLY WHAT WILL BECOME OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THE 02/12Z NAM AND 02/00Z ECMWF TAKE THE SURFACE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO PERHAPS JUST BRUSH COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, THE 02Z/12Z GFS AND GEM BRING THE SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO SHORE, SPREADING A DECENT SWATH OF RAIN INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE DIFFERENCES, WHICH LEAD TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A MATURE LOW OVER DELMARVA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING NE THROUGH NRN MAINE...WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW WILL VERTICALLY STACK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REMAIN STATIONARY OVER DELMARVA/NJ THROUGH EARLY SAT MRNG...THEN START DRIFTING OUT TO SEA. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE JAMES BAY REGION...AND MOVE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY SUN MRNG...AND EAST OF MAINE SUN AFTERNOON. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...THEY ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WINDGUST BY FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL BE IFR-MVFR NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR KHUL NORTH TO KFVE WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE IFR OVERNIGHT IN -DZ AND FOG BEFORE RISING TO LOW MVFR BY MID MORNING. FURTHER IMPROVMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES, WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO BELOW 3000 FT WITH VISIBILITIES HOVERING IN THE MVFR RANGE IN ANY PRECIPITATION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 4-5 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. EXPECT WAVES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS THRU 09Z. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY OFFSHORE. AT THIS TIME, A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT LOOK POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. IF ANY HEADLINES ARE NEEDED, IT WOULD BE A LOW-END SCA. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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