Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 171641 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1241 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will continue to move away through Eastern Canada today. High pressure will build in from the west tonight and crest over the area on Saturday. Low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 12:40 PM: Have adjusted wind, temperatures, and dew points. No other changes. Low pressure over Labrador combined with high pressure moving in from the west will continue to produce a northwesterly flow today and keep skies mostly cloudy. Some light snow showers are possible across northern and central areas with soundings showing some instability below 5K ft. However, moisture is considerably less deep than yesterday and any snow showers or flurries should be light. Skies will gradually clear tonight as the low continues to move away and high pressure builds in from the west. Lows across the area will range from the single digits north to teens Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Temps will continue to run slightly below normal for Saturday but high pres moving across the region will lead to plenty of sunshine and light winds. Sunday will feature a decent day to start out w/some patchy fog possible in the morning. Daytime temps are expected to be near normal w/some sunshine and light winds. Clouds will be on the increase during the day across the Downeast region due to low pres developing off the mid Atlc coast. Focus turns to the low pres developing off the mid Atlc coast and then lifting nne during the day. The latest runs of the long range model guidance aligning close to having the low pass well s of Nova Scotia Sunday night keeping the bulk of precipitation offshore. There is still some differences in the handling of the QPF and snowfall. The 00Z run of the GFS and ECMWF bring some light amounts of QPF and snowfall to the coast and eastern sections of the state and keep the rest of the region dry. The latest run of the Canadian Global keeps all precip offshore. The GFS Ensemble Mean is more generous w/the QPF in the form of snow w/a few inches possible to the coast and eastern sections. It even suggests some light amounts up into ne Maine. Thinking is that this is overdone given the southern position of the upper low. Therefore, continued w/a consensus of the guidance and kept highest pops(>/= 60%) offshore and have 40-50% along the coast. Pops drop off significantly as one travels n and w. Winds will pick up later Sunday into Sunday night w/gusts of 25-30 mph possible across the Downeast and eastern sections of the state. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pres is expected to quickly pull away from the region on Monday w/a pleasant day and normal temps for March. Attention then turns to the Arctic front that is shown by the long range guidance to move across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Snow/rain showers possible w/a pre frontal trof ahead of the front during the early part of the day w/temps rising into the 30s and low 40s. As the front moves in during the afternoon, snow squalls are possible as colder air starts funneling into the region. Colder air and increasing winds possilbe Tuesday night into Wednesday w/more snow showers and perhaps a few squalls. One thing to point out is the potential for dangerously cold winds chills later in the week w/this Arctic airmass. This airmass is expected to continue right through the end of the week w/temps forecast to be some 15 to 20 degrees below normal for March. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Conditions across the north will range from VFR to MVFR today then become VFR tonight. VFR conditions are expected Downeast today and tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR for all terminals Saturday into Saturday evening. MVFR and possibly IFR conditions could set up early Sunday morning w/a strong inversion setting up. Conditions look like they improve to VFR by the afternoon for the northern terminals while KBGR and KBHB could stay in MVFR. MVFR and possibly IFR Sunday night into Monday for KBGR and KBHB w/some light snow possible. Continued VFR for most of the northern terminals. The outlier here is KHUL as some MVFR cigs could develop. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A SCA for seas will remain up today across the offshore waters. Winds will gradually diminish as high pressure begins to push in from the west. SHORT TERM: SCA conditions expected to develop on Sunday into Monday as nne winds increase to 25 to 30 kts as low pres passing to the s. There could be a brief period of gusts hitting 35 kts, meaning minimal Gale Force criteria. Seas are expected to respond accordingly w/a range of 7-9 ft at the height of the event. Conditions look like they will drop off Monday night into Tuesday and then ramp back up to headline criteria on Wednesday w/the passage of an Arctic front.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term... Long Term... Aviation...Mignone/ Marine...Mignone/

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