Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 171548 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1148 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will slide by just to our north this morning as high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will crest over the area tonight. A warm front will approach on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Noon Update...Forecast remains on track. Some stratucumulus is limiting sunshine in the far northeast due to cool air pooled aloft. Otherwise, skies are sunny over the remainder of the region with a gusty breeze. Previous discussion...A dry and breezy day on tap across the region. Surface high pressure will build across southern New England through the day. Meanwhile, an upper low currently positioned south of James Bay will slide eastward. Clouds associated with the latter feature will spread into far northern areas this morning and gradually sink south through the afternoon, thinning out as they do so. As such, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies north and east, while southeastern/coastal areas see lots of sunshine. Clouds will dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Colder air aloft along with a decent jet will result in gusty northwest winds today; gusts around 30 mph are expected. Highs will range from around 70 in the North Woods and much of Aroostook County to the upper 70s for interior Downeast. For tonight...both the surface high and upper low will move east of the region while low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing high clouds. Overnight lows will mainly be in the lower to mid 50s, though some 40s are possible in the more sheltered northern valleys.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Friday begins with a ridge of high pressure overhead. The ridge moves off to the east during the day as low pressure across the Great lakes lifts to James Bay by 12Z Sat. Fri will start dry with sunshine and just some high clouds. Clouds will increase during the day with the chance of a late day shower across mainly the central highlands in advance of a warm front. Unsettled weather is then expected Fri night and Sat with onshore flow increasing the stratus and also likely some fog too. Fri night will feature low clouds, fog, and some showers. A warm front will slowly work across the region Sat making for a cloudy day with a few more showers. The clouds may try to break a bit in the afternoon, mainly across the western zones ahead of an approaching cold front. Depending on how much clearing takes place scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop later in the day across the western zones. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will cross the area Sat night with scattered showers and the chance of an evening thunderstorm. Somewhat drier/less humid air begins to filter into the region Sun, but with an upper trough to swing through during the day it will likely lead to varying amounts of cloud cover in the north and across the western mountains with a stray shower. It will likely be at least partly sunny across the Downeast Region. High pressure builds to the south of the area Sun night and Mon with dry weather along with seasonable temperatures. Return flow sets up Tue bringing warmer and more humid air back into the area. There will be the chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm across northwest Maine in association with a pre-frontal trough ahead of a cold front. Mild and muggy conditions are likely Tue night ahead of the cold front with patchy fog and a few showers. A better chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms Wed as the cold front pushes into the area. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered to broken low clouds are expected to spread over the northern sites through the morning hours, with ceilings hovering 3000-4000 ft. As such, occasional MVFR will be possible 14z-23z Thursday, especially at FVE and CAR. SHORT TERM: VFR Fri with conditions to lower to IFR Fri night in areas of low stratus and fog along with showers. IFR likely to persist into Sat morning with predominately MVFR by Sat afternoon at the northern terminals, but low IFR may persist all day at the Downeast terminals. Variable conditions expected Sat night, but mostly IFR to MVFR ceilings are expected. Conditons should improve to predominately VFR Sun, although some MVFR ceilings are still possible at the northern terminals. VFR expected on Mon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas remains in effect through much of today due to long-period south swell from Hurricane Gert. Seas have finally come up early this morning and are expected to remain at 4-6 ft into this evening. NW winds will increase through the morning hours as well, with a few gusts in excess of 20 kt possible. Conditions will improve this evening and overnight as Gert`s influence weakens and high pressure builds over the waters. SHORT TERM: The seas will build late Fri night and Sat ahead of an approaching cold front and a small craft advisory for hazardous seas might be required, especially Sat and Sat night. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Long period swell of around 13 seconds will affect the Downeast coast of Maine from this evening through much of the day today. The seas will remain 4 to 6 ft through this afternoon with the largest component of the seas being long period swell from Gert. High surf will affect the beaches producing rip currents and localized beach erosion. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hastings Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Hastings/CB Marine...Hastings/CB Tides/Coastal Flooding...

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