Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290828 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 328 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVES EAST. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND RE-DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HIGH PRES COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH THE ENERGY TO TRANSFER TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z FRI. TODAY WILL START SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHALLOW INVERSIONS WILL BREAK AND ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS TO REBOUND 30-40 DEGREES FROM THE EARLY MORNING LOWS. BY AFTERNOON EXPECT JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE CWA TO BE AOA 20F. TEMPS DOWN EAST WILL GET WELL INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP AND GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT. ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RECORDED EARLY (00-02Z). THERE WILL BE MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO DROP IN THE EAST WHERE LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE OBSERVED BETWEEN 04-06Z. TEMPERATURES IN ALL AREAS WILL SLOWLY RISE AFTER 06Z. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN IT DID LAST NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES TO THE REGION. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW WILL CROSS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA WITH ITS UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW, RESULTING IN A SWATH OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE SNOW WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN AN AREA OF STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY AS THEY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER COASTAL AREAS. WHILE A BIT OF RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN`T BE RULED OUT, EXPECT THE SNOWFALL RATES IN THE HEAVIER BANDS TO BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. AS THE SURFACE LOW SPINS INTO NOVA SCOTIA, THE INVERTED TROUGH AND ITS FORCING WILL PINWHEEL NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN MAINE. SNOWFALL RATES ALONG THIS DEFORMATION BAND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES OWING TO HIGH SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING THE SNOW TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING LOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE SNOW THAT FALLS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY IN NATURE, EXPECT THERE WILL BE A AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BITTERLY COLD ARTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH NORTHERN AREAS LIKELY NOT GETTING TO ZERO ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE -10 TO -20 IN THE NORTH AND -5 TO -15 SOUTH. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH MODEL TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES IN TRACK. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ITS SURFACE LOW TREK ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WOULD HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY 12Z FRI AS -SN SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW. THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: GALE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GULF OF MAINE AND MOVING INTO NOVA SCOTIA. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL A BIT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT, HAVE OPTED TO ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AND ISSUE HEADLINES AT A LATER POINT.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS MARINE...CB/HASTINGS

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