Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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537 FXUS61 KCAR 072137 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 437 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC BUILDS TONIGHT WITH RIDGING INTO NORTHERN ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO SUBZERO READINGS. THE ALLAGASH COULD SEE -10 TO -20F WHILE THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ZONES WILL FALL INTO THE ZERO TO MINUS 10 RANGE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW AND THE HIGH WILL GENERATE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN ZONES. THESE WINDS AND INCREASING CIRRUS FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MONDAY AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH. THIS COOL FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY ADVECT FROM THE EAST BY LATER IN THE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT TOWARDS THE COAST TOWARDS MIDDAY AND REACH BANGOR BY MID-AFTERNOON...CAUSING SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. BY EVENING...UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN BANGOR WHILE THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY SEE THREE TO FOUR INCHES. WILL ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AND ALLOW MORE TIME TO ASSESS FOR NORTHERN ZONES AS SNOWFALL IN NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MAIN TOPIC THIS TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING IN LINE MORE INCLUDING THE GFS W/SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS TERM. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING POPS UP TO 70% MONDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO TUESDAY. INTENSE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT WELL E OF NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THIS TAKES PLACE, THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LIFT NORTHWARD. LLVL CONVERGENCE COMBINED W/THE UPPER FRONT WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW FOR AN OF SNOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND THEN LIFT NORTH ON TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO BUILDING THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY RANGE. CONTINUED W/A CONSENSUS APCH ATTM AND LEANED W/A SNOWFALL TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER A 24 TO 30 HR PERIOD. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/THE BULK OF THE FORCING LIFTING INTO CANADA. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON AND OFF FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC LIFTS NE. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER GREAT LAKES BEGINS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROF JUST OFFSHORE OF DOWNEAST COAST IS ENHANCED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS MAINE. MOST MODELS AGREE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF WASHINGTON COUNTY ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES BY 6-12 HOURS FROM MODEL TO MODEL. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG DOWNEAST COAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. SOME CLEARING ON FRIDAY IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AS UPPER LOW IN TROF DRIVES SOUTHEAST BRINGING STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE TROF LINGERS ALONG DOWNEAST COAST FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THURSDAY`S HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. WITH ARCTIC SURGE BEGINNING FRIDAY...HIGHS DROP TO 5-10 DEGREES NORTH AND MID TEENS SOUTH THEN LOW SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO 10-15 BELOW ZERO NORTH AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW SOUTH ON SATURDAY. OPTED TO BUMP WINDS/GUSTS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SUPERBLEND. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT FROM THE EAST. BHB...BGR AND OTHER SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL BECOME IFR IN SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS OF MVFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL QUICKLY GO TO IFR MONDAY NIGHT W/IFR CONTINUING FOR KBGR AND KBHB. IFR CONTINUING FOR ALL TERMINALS ON TUESDAY. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FOR KBGR AND KBHB LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HANG ONTO IFR ABOUT 6 HRS LONGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECTED FOR KBGR AND KBHB WHILE NORTHERN TERMINALS COULD HANG ON TO MVFR A WHILE LONGER. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE A GALE WARNING IN PLACE FOR MONDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY EVEN EXCEED GALE FORCE TO NEARLY 50 KTS LATER MONDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 10 FT. SHORT TERM: GALE WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHOULD TRANSITION TO A SCA FOR TUESDAY. WINDS OF 30-35 KTS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO 20-25 KT BY TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8-12 FT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DROP BACK DOWN TO 6-8 FT FOR TUESDAY. A SWELL COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP W/IN SCA RANGE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...PJR AVIATION...MCW/HEWITT MARINE...MCW/HEWITT

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