Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 092309 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 609 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will southeast of Cape Cod today and track south of Nova Scotia late tonight. A cold front will approach late Sunday and cross the region Sunday evening as weak low pres crosses south of the region on Monday. After weak high pres ridges across the region Monday night...another low pressure from the great lakes will approach Tue. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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550 PM Update...Brought snowfall amounts up some along the coast especially in Washington County w/some reports coming in around and inch and snowing steadily. Bands of snow per the latest radar loop setting up across the Central Highlands and from Bangor down into Hancock and Washington Counties. Snow has pushed further n and reached into northern areas including Aroostook and northern Somerset counties. Sfc analysis showed low se of Long Island moving ne. Interesting feature showing up across northern Maine w/inverted trof in place. This is acting as a convergence zone w/the radar showing a band trying to form across ne Aroostook County. Will continue to monitor this features for snow to fill in more. Headlines remain in place for now, but thinking here is that coastal Washington County may need to be put in the Winter Weather Advisory. Temps have cooled down there and is snowing steadily. This will be looked into further this evening. Previous Discussion... Latest radar imagery is showing the leading edge of snfl movg Nwrd now apchg Cntrl ptns of the FA, xpctg to eclipse the St John vly by erly to mid eve. Models have stabilized with the 12z run not showing any additional ewrd slippage of the max QPF axis, so we feel fairly confident with the total snfl fcst we show with this update attm. Amts are still xpctd drop off fairly quickly across the NW west of the Cntrl ridges. Greatest snfl totals by Sun morn will likely occur from E Cntrl/NE Washington county into adjacent SE Aroostook county areas where local amts arnd 7 inches is possible. Total amts will likely be lower ovr SE coastal Washington County where milder maritime BL temps will result in mixed sn/rn, lowering SLRs in this area, but there is some uncertainty in how long any rn will last into the ovrngt ovr this area, so we will need to monitor for the possibility of xtndg the wntr wx adv here as well. Otherwise...steady snow will taper to sct sn shwrs first ovr SW ptns of the FA very late tngt working NE to far NE ptns late Sun morn. Ovrngt lows will be mild across the Rgn due to ovrrng snfl, with little recovery in fcst hi temps on Sun with an initially continental Canadian polar air air mass prior to any arctic air after this tm frame.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A 500MB trof will remain to our north through Monday. Short wave energy will rotate through the trof and cross the region later Sunday night and Monday. This results in a slight to low chance for snow showers late Sunday night through Monday, mainly across the north and mountains. It does turn colder on Monday behind this system with highs on Monday only in the mid to upper teens across the St. John Valley and lower 20s across the remainder of far northern Maine. Across down east areas, highs on Monday will be in the lower 30s. High pressure will builds across the top of the state Monday night with light winds. Depending on how quickly high and mid cloud moves in advance of the next system we could see a few sub zero readings by morning across the north. The high quickly retreats across the Canadian maritimes early Tuesday On Tuesday, short wave energy will slide out of central Canada on the backside of an upper trof, helping to amplify the trof across the eastern half of the nation. Surface low is expected to move east from the great lakes region in response to the energy rounding the upper trof, then re-develop across the gulf of Maine during Tuesday. There still is quite a bit of forecast uncertainty regarding the exact track and evolution of this system. Across the far north it appears precipitation would be all snow, with snow or rain down east, depending on the exact track of the low. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The surface low will slowly track north of the region Tuesday night and Wednesday with an upper low crossing the region, with lingering snow showers expected. Thursday should be a mainly dry day before another low bring another chance for some snow by Friday. This will be followed by high pressure and dry weather Saturday. Temperatures through the extended period will average below seasonal normals for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR to LIFR clgs/vsbys ovr Downeast TAF sites will progress Nwrd to Nrn TAF sites late this aftn and erly eve as the leading edge of snfl eclipses the ST John vly. Aftwrds, all TAF sites will remain IFR/LIFR ovrngt, with recovery to MVFR conditions at Downeast TAF sites erly Sun morn as sn is first to taper to sct sn shwrs. Conditions continue to improve to VFR Downeast sites by Sun aftn as sn shwrs there end and to MVFR to Nrn TAF sites Sun aftn as steady sn tapers to sct sn shwrs. SHORT TERM: Mainly VFR expected Sunday night. We could see briefly lower conditions in a few snow showers late Sunday night through early Monday. This would be mainly across the northern TAF sites. Tuesday looks like we will see IFR regionwide in developing snow north and snow/rain down east. Expect these conditions to persist into Tuesday night. MVFR in sct snow showers Wednesday, mainly north. VFR looks likely on Thursday as high pressure build in. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Will cont with the SCA for all of our waters as NE/N winds cont to increase ovrngt as an open Atlc sfc low tracks S and E of the waters ovrngt. Max wv hts will occur Sun morn, then slowly diminish Sun aftn as winds become NW Sun aftn. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level conditions are likely most of the extended period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for MEZ002- 004>006-010-011-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for MEZ015>017- 029. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST Sunday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Hewitt/VJN Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...Hewitt/VJN/Duda Marine...Hewitt/VJN/Duda

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