Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251322 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 922 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE 0920 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT TO BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATES AREA WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BREAK RECORDS...ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN SITES SUCH AS CARIBOU. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN REASONABLE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO JUST OVER 60F. FAIR SKIES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ALLOW ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL COVER A LARGE AREA FROM THE SOUTH- CENTRAL U.S. TO NEW ENGLAND TUE. THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE AUGUST TUE WITH AN 850 MB TEMP AROUND +16C AND A 925 MB TEMP OF AROUND +23C. WSW-SW FLOW AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVELS TO MIX OUT AND SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE M/U 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH A COUPLE OF 90 DEGREE READINGS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG THROUGH QUEBEC WED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE DURING THE MORNING AND WORK TOWARD THE DOWNEAST REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EARLY DAY FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. A BETTER CHANCE THAT THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT DOWNEAST WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY SOAR WELL BACK INTO THE 80S...AND THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WIND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WED EVENING WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA THU WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. IF THE GRADIENT CAN RELAX ENOUGH ACROSS FAR NW MAINE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEK AND SHOULD PASS TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA BY WED. ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...ENSEMBLES...AND HURRICANE MODELS STEER THE STORM BETWEEN A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE STORM ABOUT 700 MILES SE OF THE MAINE COAST THU. THE ONLY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LONG PERIOD SWELL. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR SHORT TERM: VFR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. LOCAL MVFR AND SHORT PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN/NEAR T-STORMS WED PM. MOSTLY MVFR IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THU AND VFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS. VFR ALL TAF SITES THU NIGHT AND FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND LATER TONIGHT...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OVER THE WATERS. SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WED THAT A SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM CHRISTOBAL SHOULD REACH THE COASTAL WATERS SOMETIME THU AND A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME. THE WIND AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS FRI. && .CLIMATE... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY AT CARIBOU OF 88F BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR AUG 24TH OF 86F SET IN 1980. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR DAY (AUG 25TH) AT CARIBOU IS ALSO 86F...SET IN 1999. THE RECORD HIGH TODAY AT BANGOR IS 95F AND IS WELL OUT OF REACH. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...MIGNONE/ MARINE...MIGNONE/ CLIMATE...

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