Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 202343 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 743 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm high pressure will build over through Saturday. Low pressure from the mid Atlantic states will approach Saturday night and track into the Gulf of Maine on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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720 pm Update: Adjusted the sky through 7 PM to show mainly clear skies. Some cirrus around but most of this thin, so clear skies overnight should do. Daycrew`s temps looked fine w/adjustments for the latest conditions w/a pleasant evening on tap. Previous Discussion... Skies will then remain mclr to clr ovrngt with mild ovrngt lows... with the coolest readings in the typical cool lctns of the Nrn broad rvr vlys. Sat will begin sunny to msly sunny...with increasing cldnss from the WSW later in the aftn as moisture alf from a s/wv movg Ewrd from the OH vly begins to arrive. This later arrival of clds will not have much impact on hi temps reaching near max potential across Nrn and Cntrl ptns of the region Sat aftn...with many low trrn lctns apchg 80 deg F as max aftn 925mb temps reach +17 deg C. A more Srly component geostrophic wind component by Sat aftn ovr the lower Penobscot vly and Downeast areas will allow for a greater advancement of the sea breeze durg this ptn of the day...lowering the max potential hi temps in these areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The GFS/ECMWF/NAM models are in good agreement through the short term period of the forecast, the GEM is about 24 hrs out of faze with the other models. A high pressure ridge will be moving east of the area as a weak cold front moves into the Saint Lawrence Seaway. A low pressure system along the coast of NJ with a frontal boundary wrapped around the low, then extending south into the Caribbean Sea. Sunday morning the cold front moves south into Maine, the low along the coast of NJ moves north to Cap Cod, its associated frontal system moves into the gulf of Maine. An upper level low will begin to form over PA/NY. As the system near Cape Cod continues its track across the Gulf of Maine the frontal system over Maine will stall, and become quasi-stationary over central Maine. Sunday afternoon the low will track east, to a position south of Bar Harbor and east of Cape Cod. By Sunday night it will move to the south central portions of the Gulf of Maine. The GFS/ECMWF show the upper low will be fully formed along the Delmarva. Monday morning the low will continue its slow track across the Gulf of Maine, becoming detached from the frontal system and starting to drift to the southwest towards the cold core low along the coast of VA. The low continues the track to the southwest towards the stationary cold core upper low. Higher pressure builds back across Maine. Loaded a blend to smooth out the minor differences in the models. The blend more closely follows the solution of the GFS. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper low will meander across the eastern U.S. much of next week, keeping the weather unsettled. As is the norm, the long- range models can`t agree on the exact details, but can`t rule out at least a slight chance of showers each day. Afternoon thunderstorms will be possible, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper low finally moves away Wednesday night. However, both the GFS and the ECMWF indicate fairly vigorous shortwaves moving through the upper zonal flow sometime during the Thursday/Friday timeframe. As such, the shower chances remain through the end of the week. Thankfully, we look to remain on the mild side through the week, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s most days and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions...msly unlmtd...will cont tngt thru Sat. SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions for BGR and BHB, VFR for the other sites at the start of the period. Increasing clouds and decreasing ceilings becoming MVFR in HUL around midnight. MVFR conditions in FVE,CAR,HUL and PQI Sun mrng, IFR BGR and BHB as the frontal systems move into srn Maine. Condition improve to MVFR early Mon mrng as the front moves east. Scatter shower will remain particularly in srn Maine may cause brief periods of IFR cig and VSBY conditions early Mon. IFR conditions will return to BHB and BGR Tue afternoon as an upper level low moves into srn Maine. MVFR conditions return Tue evng with scatter shower remaining a threat through the end of the period. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and wvs will remain below SCA criteria tngt thru Sat...although wv hts will increase to the 2 to 4 ft range ovr the outer MZs by Sat aftn due to a geostrophic SSW wind of 10 to 20 kt...being somewhat enhanced by the sea breeze crcltn. Kept close to WW3 guidance for fcst wv hts for this ptn of the fcst. SHORT TERM: An SCA may be require through much of the period. Winds are forecasted to be above 25 kts Sun afternoon to Sun evng. Seas will be above 5 ft from Sun afternoon through most of Mon as a low pressure system move into the Gulf of Maine Sun and remains through the remainder of the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt/VJN Short Term...Norton Long Term...Hastings Aviation...Hewitt/VJN/Norton Marine...Hewitt/VJN/Norton

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