Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 132321 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 621 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracking off the Mid-Atlantic coast will pass well south of the area tonight. High pressure will push down from the north Tuesday into Wednesday as a weak upper low moves across. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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6:21 pm update...Canadian high pressure settles to the north of the region tonight as a weak wave of low pressure passes well to the southeast of the region. Some light precipitation in the form of snow or mixed snow and rain may fall along parts of the Downeast coast this evening with little or no accumulation. Clouds have settled across northern Maine. The main updates are to significantly increase the cloud cover this evening across northern areas, and to make some tweaks to the PoPs and precipitation type along and near the Downeast coast this evening. Previous discussion... The model guidance is in good agreement through the near term period of the forecast. A high pressure ridge over the area at the start of the period will retreat into the Canadian Maritimes as a low move east across the North Atlantic south of the Gulf of Maine. A trof will also be moving south across Central Quebec. The warm front associated with the low over the Atlantic will extend into the Downeast Coast of Maine bringing some light rain to the area this evening. This low will move east of the area by early tomorrow morning, the trof moving across Quebec will reach Northern Maine by early morning then slowly work through the state through the day. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used GFS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure will build over the area Tuesday night as a weak upper low slides across the Downeast region. This will bring a mostly cloudy sky Downeast with partial cloudiness across the north. Wednesday will becoming mostly clear as surface high pressure remains over the region and weak upper level ridging moves in. Clouds will increase Wed night from weak warm advection ahead low pressure moving into Quebec. Some spotty light snow across the north and rain showers Downeast are likely late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. A coating to an inch of snow is possible over the far north and higher elevations of central areas with no snow accumulation expected over the south. Showers may be enhanced a bit late Thursday as an upper level shortwave and weak surface low move into the area.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure will intensify and move east through the Maritimes Thursday night as high pressure begins to push down from northern Quebec. This will bring an increasing northwest wind. Rain showers may end as snow showers late Thursday night into early Friday morning then Friday should bring partial clearing. Winds will quickly diminish Friday evening as high pressure begins to crest over the area under clear skies. Strong low pressure lifting north of the Great Lakes will bring increasing clouds Saturday with an increasing southeast wind. Snow north and rain Downeast are likely late Saturday into Saturday evening. Snow across the north will change to rain Saturday night with a couple inches possible across the far north before the changeover. The GFS has been consistent in carrying the colder solution with several inches of snow possible over the far north before the changeover. The ECMWF, however, has surged the warmer air in much faster with little or no snow before warmer southeast winds change precipitation over to rain. Right now looks like best chance for any amounts of snow would be over the far north before the warmer air moves in. Precipitation will taper off to drizzle then end overnight Saturday night as drier air aloft pulls up from the south. Sunday into Monday will be mostly cloudy and cold as the upper low lifts across the area and colder air filters in from the west. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected through the period at all sites. BHB and BGR may receive some light rain this evening, but ceilings and visibilities are expected to remain above 3kft and 5sm. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday night. Conditions may lower to MVFR late Wednesday night then be MVFR or IFR on Thursday in lower clouds with some rain and snow showers. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds gusts will build tomorrow into the low 20s kts, however winds and seas will remain below SCA through the period. SHORT TERM: A SCA may be needed for the offshore waters for northeast winds gusting up to 25kt early Tuesday night. A SCA or Gale may be needed again late Thursday night or Friday for strong gusty northwest winds. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norton Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...CB/Norton/Bloomer Marine...CB/Norton/Bloomer

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