Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 080915 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 415 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level trof will approach the region from the west today and cross the area tonight. Much colder air is expected to overspread the region on Friday and remain through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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An upper level low near James Bay will move east through Quebec Province today. Short wave energy in advance of the upper trof will bring the chance of a snow shower to northern and central areas today and rain or snow showers to downeast areas. Otherwise expect mainly cloudy skies today. It will be a bit milder with highs ranging from around 30 degrees across the north and low to mid 30s across central and downeast. The upper trof will slide east across the forecast area tonight. Colder air will begin to move into the region tonight. As it does so, a few snow showers will be possible especially across northern and central areas. There could be a few heavier snow showers across northern Aroostook late tonight with the colder air coming across the open St. Lawrence. Couldn`t rule out some localized snow accumulations overnight across the north in any heavier snow showers. Lows tonight will range from the upper teens to near 20 degrees across the north and lower 20s downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Models still in relative agreement regarding the potential of sn shwrs/sqls across msly the N hlf of the FA with the arrival of colder arctic air with St Lawrence seaway sn band streamers likely contg ovr the N into Fri ngt. Colder drier arctic air should then shut down sn shwrs to sct flurries across the N by Sat. During both Fri and Sat, winds will be brisk with below zero wind chills spcly across the N and Cntrl ptns of the FA and spcly Fri ngt into Sat morn. Hi temps Sat will be sig below seasonal avgs. Winds should diminish late Sat ngt and with some clrg spcly ovr NW vlys, some lctns here could fall below zero with single digits abv zero further SE and 10 to 15 alg the Downeast coast by erly Sun morn. Sun will begin fair, with increasing cldnss by aftn as low pres from the Midwest begins to apch. Hi temps Sun should return to similar values as Sat, but with much less wind.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Models are neither in run to run or model to model comparison agreement with the low pres system xpctd to track from the Midwest toward the Srn Gulf of ME or open N Atlc Sun ngt and Mon. Of the latest 00z dtmnstc model suite of models, the CanGem was the furthest N and most intense with the low Mon into Mon ngt, suggesting sn adv or even wntr stm wrng snfl criteria and even enough llvl warm air to mix or chg sn to rn alg the immediate coast durg the height of the event Mon aftn into Mon eve. Unfortunately, the 00z ECMWF run was opposed to it`s prior 12z run, and is much further s with the track of the sfc low. Similar to most recent prior model runs, the 00z GFS run is again relatively weak with a srn track with alg with the ECMWF, would only graze or even miss far Nrn ptns of the FA with any snfl. Even the 00z GFS ensm was further S than the 12z ensm track of the sfc low, but did imply some snfl for even far Nrn ptns of the FA. This scenario was also mirrored by the 00z CFS model output. So for now, we will keep hi chc pops of sn for Nrn Me cntrd on Mon and likely PoPs for Cntrl and Downeast ptns of the region and will wait for more model consensus before committing either way with PoPs and implied liq equiv precip/snfl for the region. Aftwrds, there is even more uncertainty, with some models like the GFS, GFS ensm, and CFS bringing a potential sig precip event to the region midweek ahead of potentially the coldest outbreak of arctic air to our region slated for late next week, while the ECMWF just brings sn shwrs ahead of the arctic front. Given track uncertainties with Mon`s event, needless to say there is even more uncertainty for any event for mid next week. Temps Sun thru Wed looks to be msly below avg, but not as cold as this weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Variable flight conditions are expected this morning with mainly VFR conditions but local MVFR/IFR in patchy freezing fog and low ceilings. Scattered snow showers are possible across the northern terminals today and rain/snow showers downeast with lcl MVFR conditions expected. Expect MVFR in sct snow showers across the north tonight with VFR downeast. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR clgs xpctd across the N and low VFR clgs Cntrl Downeast thru Fri eve, then VFR all sites late Fri ngt thru Sun eve. Vsbys briefly IFR attms across the N Fri and Fri eve and MVFR late Fri ngt in sn shwrs/sn sqls and MVFR Cntrl and Downeast Fri into Fri eve. All sites then VFR Sat and Sun. Clgs and vsbys gradually lower to MVFR from SW to NE ovrngt Sun and then to IFR on Mon in sn.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through early afternoon but then begin to increase in advance of the approaching trof from the west. Winds/seas are expected to increase to small craft advisory levels this evening and continue overnight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Will cont with SCA/gale watch Fri into erly Sat morn for cold advcn NW winds...with SCA`s likely to be needed again late Sat morn into Sat ngt. After a break Sun into Sun ngt, the next chc for marine wind hdlns will be Mon into Tue depending on the track of low pres into the Srn Gulf of ME or the open N Atlc. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts thru these ptns of the fcst.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for ANZ050-051. Small Craft advisory from 7 pm tonight through Friday afternoon for ANZ050-051-052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/VJN Marine...Duda/VJN

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