Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 142214 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 614 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will push down from the north and stall across the area this evening. High pressure will be over the region on Friday. A cold front will approach from the north on Saturday and stall north of the area Saturday night into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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6 PM Update... The latest sfc analysis showed the cold front sliding s attm across northern Maine. Last visible satl frame confirmed this w/cumulus line. This line of cumulus was dissipated w/the loss of diurnal heating. Not much of a airmass change w/this boundary as it slides se. The real airmass change is still a ways back into Quebec. Adjusted the hrly temps/dewpoints to fit the current conditions.The RAP was doing well w/the placement of the front and the wind shift to the nw. The daycrew`s assessment looks good attm. Sky forecast matching up well w/the latest obs and satl imagery. The front looks like it will get hung up across the downeast region later tonight w/some moisture trying to pull up along the front from the s. No changes to the current package w/keeping things dry. Previous Discussion... The cold front is currently in northern Aroostook. It is not expected to bring any precipitation and little cloud cover, but it will generate important subtleties in the forecast. First, there will be higher dew points ahead of the front that will result in a more humid evening across the area. The sea breeze along the coast will weaken this evening, but set the stage for some patchy fog and low clouds tonight. The front stalls tonight towards the coast tonight. As a result, the humidity lingers there with lows in the upper 50s inland. Further north, there`s a different story with dew points dropping into the upper 40s by later tonight and lows north of Houlton in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Finally, moisture with the remnants of Irma will then ride south of the stalled front on Friday. Most guidance shows no precip in the forecast area...with the exception of the 14/12Z GFS. The GFS is over forecasting convection today and looks to have the same issue on Friday. Therefore, will leave pops out of the forecast. There will be a lot more cloud cover towards the coast on Friday and highs will be quite a bit cooler than today. Further inland, cooler H850 temps will result in highs about 5 degrees cooler than today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Warm high pressure and a strong upper level ridge will remain over the area Friday night into Saturday. Cool high pressure building into central Canada will push a cold front toward the area on Saturday. However, the front will stall to our north as strong ridging across the northeast keeps the region in a warm air mass. Far northern areas may have an increase in clouds ahead of the front on Saturday while the rest of the region remains mostly sunny. The front will remain to our north Saturday night into Sunday with far northern areas mostly cloudy and central and Downeast areas partly cloudy to mostly clear. There may be a few spotty showers with the front across the far north on Sunday. Elsewhere, skies will be partly sunny as the ridge keeps a warm airmass over the region and continues to hold the front to our north. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level ridging and high pressure will keep us in a warm pattern Sunday night into Monday with dry weather. The ridge will remain over the area on Tuesday. However, some moisture ahead of Hurricane Jose may result in more cloudiness, especially along the Downeast coast. The ECMWF and the latest GFS both have Hurricane Jose a couple hundred miles southeast of Cape Cod by midday Wednesday with the guidance taking it east northeast, south of Nova Scotia, Wednesday night into Thursday. It remains too early to tell if the hurricane will directly impact parts of our region. However, it is likely it will at least result in some high surface along the Downeast coast later Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: The predominant condition will be VFR except along the coast to include BHB. These locations will likely become IFR tonight with fog and low stratus clouds. Elsewhere, there is a slight chance of MVFR cigs towards HUL, PQI and CAR later tonight into Friday morning. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Friday night through Sunday with the possible localized exception of some patchy valley fog early Saturday morning and again early Sunday morning. VFR conditions are likely on Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Long period south swell continues with seas near 3 feet...and occasionally reaching nearly 4 feet. Winds will continue to be light and fog will likely form tonight and linger into Friday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA Friday night through Sunday. Swell from Hurricane Jose will likely build early next week possibly reaching over 5 ft on Tuesday and higher on Wednesday. The latest long range models are taking Jose southeast of our waters on Wednesday, but possibly close to to result in high surf and a strong northeast wind. It remains too early tell if the storm will have a direct impact on our area. However it is advised that anyone with marine interests closely monitor forecast updates this weekend into next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt/MCW Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Farrar Aviation...MCW/Bloomer Marine...MCW/Bloomer

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