Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 281129 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 629 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the area this afternoon and tonight. Low pressure will move across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another area of low pressure will move through Wednesday night into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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630 am update... Clds continue to play havoc with fcst this mrng. They hv kept temps up by svrl degrees acrs entire fa and hv updated temps thru the mrng to account for this. Expect sunny skies ovr Downeast to spread north thru the aftn as stratus begins to dissipate as low departs into extrm ern Canada. No other chgs needed at this time. Prev discussion blo... Flurries wl continue acrs the far north for another few hrs as vort is flung at the area fm H5 low working up into Newfoundland. Expect winds wl rmn gusty out of the nw tda as pressure gradient wl not relax until close to 00z. Hipres builds in tonight with clrg skies and lgt nw winds. With dwpts dipping into the teens expect mins wl lkly be in the teens tonight acrs the far north and l20s expected elsewhere. Upr lvl ridging wl mv in twd daybreak just ahd of next system which wl be mvg acrs the nrn Plains tda.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The short term will be very active, with one system passing thru the CWA Tue and Tue night, and the next system moving in right on its heels late Wed and Wed night. The first system will occur as a weak shortwave moves into a narrow upper ridge moving across the area, accompanied by a sfc occlusion and cold front. Most models show cyclogenesis across the Gulf of Maine Tue night, with this new triple point low then moving into the Canadian Maritimes. Clouds will quickly build on Tue and precip will move into the western CWA by early aftn. Expect initially to have snow for northern and central areas, rain in coastal Downeast, and a mixing zone between southern Penobscot and central Washington. However, expect SE-S`ly flow to push the rain/snow line gradually northward toward Millinocket and srn Aroostook even into the early overnight hrs. Also did put in a strip of Chc ZR along and just north of the mixing zone to reflect the depiction in some models of a modestly warm layer aloft. There will barely be a break between the exit of that system Wed AM and the arrival of the next system Wed night. This second system is associated with a deep upper low currently over the nrn Plains that will shift eastward Tue and Wed. before crossing the area Thu & Fri. Precip builds in from the SW by around 00z Thu, with categorical pops overnight. Currently expecting an initial rain/snow setup similar to the Tue event during the Wed overnight hours. The strength of the inland low and how quickly it gets overpowered by the developing coastal low will have a lot to say in the way the precip types evolve. Overall, models are in reasonably good agreement on these two systems, with minor differences for timing and low placement. The second system seems likely to be the more significant system, as it is associated with a much more substantial upper-level feature and appears like it may be better able to tap into some Gulf of Mexico moisture. Both systems will have the potential to produce at least advisory level snow totals north of the Katahdin region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rain and snow will be ongoing across the CWA Thu into early Thu night as the second system from the short term gets wrapped up across teh Gulf of Maine and Nova Scotia. While the main system will depart to the east later Thu night, a broad upper low is forecast to remain over eastern Canada with several shortwave features possibly rotating around it and across our area. As such, did keep chance POPs for much of the CWA into Sat. Models begin to diverge significantly from Sun onward. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR will be off and on north of HUL through 15z before becoming VFR as stratus wanes. Expect just bkn-ovc mid and high level clouds next 24 hours. Winds will be gusty out of the nw this afternoon. SHORT TERM: Clear skies will quickly cloud over with mid and upper level clouds Tue morning. As precip spreads in from the west, CIGs will quickly deteriorate to MVFR and then IFR for all sites Tue aftn into Tue night. Vis will also quickly drop to MVFR or IFR for KBGR and KBHB in areas of rain Tue into Tue night, with the 4 northern sites expected to have IFR or LIFR vis in snow. May have brief improvement to MVFR or even briefly VFR across the area Wed AM into early Wed aftn. However, expect a drop back to MVFR and IFR CIGs and vis for later Wed aftn into Thu in periods of rain and snow. KBHB and KBGR are likely to see some improving CIGs and VIS Thu night into Fri, but lingering clouds and psbl snow for KHUL to KFVE could keep those sites at IFR thru Fri, at least intermittently.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Extended SCA for ANZ050 as winds will remain at or just above 25kts through 15z this morning. High pressure builds across the waters tonight with winds and seas well below SCA criteria. SHORT TERM: Will need to watch for psbl SCA wind gusts and seas Tue night as low pressure develops over the Gulf, but at this time it appears marginal, at least for winds, so will hold off on any advisory product. Same situation for Wed night as the next low approaches and strengthens. Wind gusts will approach SCA levels, and seas are quite possible to exceed the criteria.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ050.
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&& $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term...Kredensor Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...Farrar/Kredensor Marine...Farrar/Kredensor

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