Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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591 FXUS61 KCAR 220303 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1103 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure approaching from the Mid Atlantic States tonight will track east of the Gulf of Maine Sunday into Monday. High pressure from Central Canada will briefly ridge into the region Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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11 pm Update: Scaled back on the POPS to start out this evening intO the overnight period using the HRRR 3KM model and NAM12. Both guidance show upper support to weaken overnight w/some weak ridging offshore. IR Satellite imagery showed some clearing trying to make its way e into w and nw areas. Adjusted the SKY elements to show some partial clearing across the nnw by morning w/rest of the CWA staying mostly cloudy due to high clouds(cirrus). Previous Discussion... A weakening cold front associated with the QB shearing upper trof will slowly apch the FA from the NW late tngt and then move into N cntrl ME Sun morn before stalling in this area Sun aftn. This feature will likely provide the best focus of shwrs and isold tstms Sun aftn for Nrn and Cntrl ptns of the FA, with some htg Sun morn with breaks in cldnss allowing for lmtd SBCAPE durg this tm. With more cld cvr present across the region Sun, Hi temps will be cooler by some 10 to 15 deg F compared to this aftn. Any semi-organized shwr activity will begin to dissipate by Sun eve with the loss of dytm htg as stratiform rnfl from the offshore coastal low grazes Downeast areas late Sun aftn and eve. Clrg will then slowly begin to advance from NW to SE across the FA late Sun ngt as whats left of the cold front gets displaced to the SE by a weak ridge of Can hi pres, with sct shwrs become related to far SE ME.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper level low will be centered across the mid atlantic region on Monday and then move slowly north through Tuesday. Expect unseasonably warm weather to continue Monday and again on Tuesday with high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 70s across northern and central areas, and the low 70 across interior downeast. Highs along the coast both days will only be in the mid to upper 60s due to a persistent onshore flow. Outside of the chance of a few showers downeast by Tuesday afternoon expect dry weather to continue to start the work week. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Unseasonably warm weather is expected to continue much of the upcoming week. The upper level low will be near Cape cod at the start of the period and then move east of the Gulf of Maine by Thursday morning. Have leaned with the blend of the guidance through this period which suggests the chance for showers, however, it certainly not will be a wash out by any means. An upper ridge will briefly build across the region Thursday into Friday. A back door front will cross the region later Friday. This system will bring the potential for showers. Can`t rule out a thunderstorm, but will leave out now. A cooler and drier airmass will follow for Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR clgs xpctd tngt thru Sun ngt...with brief MVFR clgs/vsbys possible with heavier shwrs Sun aftn mainly from KHUL to KCAR. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions through most of the period. Scattered showers by midweek could result in lcl MVFR conditions. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No hdlns initially tngt and Sun...with winds and seas likely increasing to SCA range for spcly our outer MZ waters by Sun ngt. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas could continue at or near small craft levels Monday through Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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