Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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785 FXUS61 KCAR 250429 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1229 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure to our north will slowly move to the east tonight into Wednesday. High pressure will cross the region Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1210 AM Update: Based on latest radar imagery, sn shwrs appear to breaking out a little faster ovr Nrn and Ern ptns of ME this late ngt then prev fcst, so PoPs were raised ovr these areas for the late ngt. Not much in the way of sn accumulation xpctd attm. Fcst hrly temps and dwpts updated to msly unchgd fcst lows at 6-7am based on obsvd late eve trends. Lastly, prelim work was done on PoPs, sky and temps for Tue into Tue ngt. Orgnl Disc: Low pressure to our north will maintain a gusty, chilly westerly breeze across the area tonight with a mostly cloudy sky. Moisture will continue backing south around the low bringing scattered rain and snow showers to northern and central areas. The low will slowly move to the east on Tuesday as moisture continues to wrap south around the low. Showers of rain and snow will continue across the north with boundary layer thicknesses low enough to support mostly snow across the far north. Otherwise, Tuesday will be a breezy, cloudy and cool day similar to today across central and northern areas. The Downeast coast, which had some sunshine today, will be cloudier on Tuesday as deep moisture circulating south around departing low pressure pushes down across coastal areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... An upper level trof wil remain across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday, then move east Wednesday night. A surface trof also persists Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure builds across the region Wednesday night through early Thursday, then begins to move east later Thursday while low pressure tracks east across the eastern Great Lakes. Will have a chance of rain/snow showers across northern areas Tuesday night through Wednesday. Expect precipitation mostly in the form of snow showers from the evening through the early morning hours, with rain showers from late morning into the afternoon. Across Downeast areas, will have a slight chance/chance of rain or snow showers. Generally expect diurnal snow showers from the overnight through the early morning hours with rain showers during the morning and afternoon. Expect decreasing clouds Wednesday night. Cloud cover will then begin to increase later Thursday in advance of the approaching low. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Wednesday/Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Secondary low pressure will begin to develop along the New England coast Thursday night, while high pressure exits across the maritimes. Precipitation will begin to expand northeast across the forecast area Thursday night. Expect precipitation mostly in the form of light rain Downeast, with light snow across central and northern areas. The low moves east Friday, though uncertainty exists regarding the strength and track of the low along with the amount of cold air available which will influence precipitation types and totals. Have leaned toward a warmer solution which would allow a rain/snow mix to transition to rain across northern areas with rain Downeast Friday. However, if more cold air is available the transition to rain could be slowed across northern areas allowing for accumulating snow. Precipitation will diminish later Friday night. The low will exit across the maritimes Saturday, with another low approaching from the west late. Expect a chance of mostly rain showers across the region Saturday. Uncertainty then develops again Sunday into early Monday regarding the track of another low which could keep a chance of rain/snow showers across the region. High pressure should then begin to build east toward the region later Monday. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Friday, with near normal level temperatures expected Saturday through Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions are expected across the north tonight into Tuesday, possibly lowering to IFR at times in lower stratocumulus clouds over the far north. Mainly VFR conditions are expected Downeast tonight and Tuesday. Gusty west winds will continue tonight, becoming northwesterly on Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, particularly across the north and mountains. VFR conditions are expected Wednesday night through Thursday. Conditions will lower to MVFR levels Thursday night. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected Friday into Friday night though uncertainty exists regarding the track and intensity of low pressure. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: An SCA will continue tonight through Tuesday for the offshore waters for winds gusting to 25 kt. Winds will be mainly below SCA over the intracoastal waters. However, a few gusts to 25 kt will be possible overnight tonight. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels Thursday. Could also have a slight chance of rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...VJN/Norcross Marine...VJN/Norcross is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.