Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 301807 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 207 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 2 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE POPS TO ACCOUNT A LATER TIMING TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS BUT KEPT THE ENHANCED WORDING IN TSTMS. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING OUT IN THE WESTERN AREAS W/SOME STORMS FIRING OVER QUEBEC AND PUSHING E AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SB CAPES IN THIS AREA AT 1500 JOULES. FURTHER E, SUNSHINE HAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP W/THE DOWNEAST AND COAST SEEING ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING LLVLS STABLE. ORGNL DISC: WE DO XPCT MORNG FOG OVER CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TO LIFT LATER THIS MORN...WITH A POSSIBLE XCPTN ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST. OTHERWISE...SPC UPGRADED THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE FOR THE NW AND FAR NE TO A SLGT RISK. WE ARE ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH ML CAPES...WHICH MAX OUT TO ABOUT 600 J/KG TO LCLY AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTN...WITH WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES POTENTIALLY PUTTING A BREAK ON UPDRAFT SPEEDS EVEN OVR THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS OF THE FAR NW. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WINDS NOT TO FAR ALF...HEAVIER RNFL FROM ANY TSTMS THAT DO GET GOING WILL BE ABLE TO DRAG THIS MOMENTUM TO THE SFC IN THE FORM OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE WHATS LEFT OF THE MAX CAPE AXIS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 200J/KG AFT 00Z...SO WE DROP ENHANCED TSTM WORDING AFT 00Z AND GO WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF GENERAL STRATIFORM RNFL AFT MDNGT WITH THE COLD FRONT TAKING MORE OF AN ANA-FRONT APPEARANCE. THE CNTR OF THE MAIN RNFL BAND WILL THEN TRANSITION SWRD FROM NRN ME DURG THE OVRNGT HRS TO CNTRL AND DOWNEAST ME BY ERLY SUN MORN. FCST AFTN 925-850MB TEMPS STILL SUPPORT LOWER TO EVE A FEW MID 80S FOR HI TEMPS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE N AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SW SFC WIND...TO COOLER 70S OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS...TO ONLY 60S ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST...WHERE THE LLVL AIR MASS IS MODIFIED BY WINDS ADVECTING OFF THE GULF OF ME. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE COOLER OVR THE N WHERE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES...BUT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM OVR DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH WILL BE ALG OR EVEN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY 12Z SUN. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ON SUNDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST BY EVENING. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAINY DAY FOR BANGOR AND COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DOWN EAST WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE FRONTAL INVERSION ARRIVES AND DROPS TEMPERATURES. FURTHER NORTH...BEHIND THE FRONT...THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEND TO PERSIST. THIS WILL NET A RELATIVELY COOL...CLOUDY AND DRY DAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO BANGOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH THE COAST. THE FRONT STALLS SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL MITIGATE THE FROST RISK...BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER A FRONTAL INVERSION WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH STEADIER OVERRUNNING RAIN FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. A COOL EAST WIND WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE...RAINFALL MAY BE MORE SPORADIC AND ALLOW HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING MONDAY AND KEEPS THE PROLONGED OVERRUNNING EVENT GOING MONDAY NIGHT. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL ALSO TEND TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FORM IN THE AREA OF THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING TUESDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY WITH HIGHS JUST IN THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE CONTINUING FRONTAL INVERSION. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE STEADIER RAINS WILL END. ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND IT WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER FRIDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN ST AND FOG AT MOST TAF SITES ERLY THIS MORN WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORN...WITH KBHB TAKING LONGEST TO IMPROVE. CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER NW TO SE TO IFR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SHWRS AND GENERAL RNFL...WITH MORE MARINE FOG FOR DOWNEAST SITES LOWERING CLGS/VSBYS TO LIFR. SHORT TERM: FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR NORTH OF HUL. DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD SOUTH OF HUL...IT WILL BE MOSTLY IFR SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE DAY. IFR RETURNS MONDAY AND WILL BE A PREDOMINANT CONDITION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF HUL. ALL AREAS WILL BE VFR WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO CHGS TO CURRENT SCA TO GO IN EFFECT LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION TO WINDS AND SEAS...MARINE FOG REDUCING VSBYS BLO A MILE ATTMS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...SPCLY TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED...BUT SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO THE 5 FOOT CRITERIA DURING SUNDAY. FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE SUNDAY MORNING AND RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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