Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 230942 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 542 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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545AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS DOWN EAST THIS MORNING AND DECREASED CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT DOWN EAST...THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMP TREND BASED ON THE COLD FRONT LOCATION. THE FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH GREENVILLE...MILLINOCKET AND HOULTON AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE IS FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS CAUSING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE DOWN EAST REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT H925-H850 MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY AND IT WILL BECOME WINDIER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. SOME GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL VARY FROM NEAR 50F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE TO NEAR 60F ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SFC HIPRES WL BE BUILDING IN ON SUN WITH SUNNY SKIES ACRS THE REGION BFR WK FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATE IN THE AFTN. LATEST BUFKIT SNDGS SHOWING AN EXTRMLY DRY AIRMASS DRG THE DAY AND HV SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT MOS DWPT VALUES IN THE AFTN. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FM THE M40S ACRS THE NORTH TO LOW 50S IN THE SOUTH. FRONTAL BNDRY DROPS THRU SUN NIGHT WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG IT, IF THAT. BLYR RMNS EXTREMELY DRY SO HV GONE WITH LESS THAN 10 POPS DRG THE OVRNGT. WEAK CLD ADVECTION WL OCCUR THRU MON MRNG WITH MINS JUST SLIGHTLY CLDR THAN SUN MRNG. WV NOW WORKING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WL EJECT EAST THRU THE PD. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WL STALL OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST MON MRNG WITH WV RIDING ALONG BNDRY. MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CHC FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST MON NGT AND HV CAPPED POPS AT LOCHC ACRS COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON THRU 12Z TUE. LATEST 00Z NAM APPEARS MORE REASONABLE THAN RMNG MED RANGE GUIDANCE GIVEN HOW DRY AIRMASS HAS BEEN LATELY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXTNDD PD WL FEATURE QUIET AND DRY WX THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. UPR LOW WL CUTOFF OVR THE WEEKEND AND RMN PARKED OVR ERN CANADA THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM PER EURO. SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH LATEST GFS AS LOW KICKS OUT BY THUR. 00Z EURO SUGGESTING MINIMAL POPS THRU THE LONG TERM WHILE GFS BRINGS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IN FOR FRI. HV GONE WITH SUPERBLEND POPS SHOWING ISOLD AND LOCHC POPS ACRS CWA LATE IN THE PD. TEMPS LOOK TO MODERATE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEEKS END. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIFTING TO VFR. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR THRU THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH SUN NIGHT MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO NORTHERN TERMINALS THRU EARLY MON MRNG. MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MAY BRING BGR AND BHB DOWN TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. VFR RETURNS THRU THE END OF THE PD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL PROBABLY NEED AN SCA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED/SUSTAINED PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS IS NOT HIGH AND WILL NOT ISSUE RIGHT NOW. SHORT TERM: EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO RMN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE PD. && .FIRE WEATHER... CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MITIGATE THE RISK TODAY...BUT SUNDAY COULD BE INTERESTING WITH RH DROPPING UNDER 20 PERCENT AND 30 MPH WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN IDEAL...FINE FUELS HAVE SUPPORTED NUMEROUS WILDFIRES IN THE PAST WEEK AND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED OVERNIGHT DID NOT BRING A WETTING RAIN TO MANY LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...FARRAR AVIATION...MCW/FARRAR MARINE...MCW/FARRAR FIRE WEATHER...MCW

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