Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 282344 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 644 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND CREST OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 630 PM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST RADAR REF AND SAT IR IMAGERY... WE ADVCG SN SHWR EXIT AND CLRG ABOUT 2 TO 3 HRS FASTER THIS EVE THAN THE PREV FCST UPDATE. ALSO...MODIFIED FCST LOWS TNGT FOR COLDER VLY TEMPS...LOWERING WINDS TO NEAR CALM LATE TNGT AS SFC HI PRES FROM QB APCHS. FCST HRLY TEMPS HAD TO BE MODIFIED FROM OBSVD 6 PM OBS...TO NEW POSTED LOWS AT 7 AM...AND TO POSTED FCST HI TEMPS ON THU. ORGNL DISC: ANY REMNANT BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM OUR DEPARTING STORM WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. WITH DEEP FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM LATE TONIGHT, WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS WHERE SOME SPOTS MAY REACH 10 BELOW. THURSDAY WILL THEN BRING A TRANQUIL AND DRY DAY BETWEEN STORMS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE AREA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD RANGING FROM THE MID 20S DOWNEAST TO THE LOW 20S OVER THE NORTH. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR RISING AFTER AN INITIAL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS MIGHT BE A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST IF THE CIRRUS IS NOT TOO THICK DURING THE EVENING. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR WESTERN ZONES AS A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EAST COAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SHARPEN WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING EAST OF CAPE COD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MAINE AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL START FEEDING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW RATIOS COULD BE QUITE HIGH ALONG THIS INVERTED TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW DURING FRIDAY EVENING. A STRONG JET IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HELP ENSURE A CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS AND ENSURE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CUT-OFF WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM THE CAPE COD AREA FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS FRIDAY NIGHT ON ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA...THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER MAINE WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A TROWAL STRUCTURE WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS LIKELY IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. BOTH FRIDAY`S SNOW RATIOS AND BANDING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING COULD CAUSE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE INCREASED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST LATE TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SHORT TERM: VFR THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL ROLL IN LATE NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING. IFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT AS NORTH WINDS CONTINUE GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO GALE ON SATURDAY. A LIKELY SEQUENCE OF HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE A GALE WATCH FOLLOWED BY A GALE WARNING RATHER THAN ISSUING AN SCA ON FRIDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW

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