Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 032319 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 619 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 615 PM UPDATE...A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SNOW BREAKS OUT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 02-05Z THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW...WITH THE PRECIPITATION TO WIND DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY EARLY WED MORNING. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE STARTING TIME OF THE SNOW BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. WOULD EXPECT THAT THE ADVISORIES THAT RUN OUT INTO WED MORNING WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY...BUT AS THE SNOW HAS NOT YET STARTED WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORIES. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER WITH ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA BY AROUND 10-11Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A ROUND OF SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AND TEMPERATURES. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES RIDGE SLIDING OFF TO THE E W/MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING ENE PER THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES DID WARM QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED W/SOME NORTHERN AREAS HITTING THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S AND CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS HITTING THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. CLOUDINESS IS THIN ATTM AND EXPECTATION IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY W/A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SPREADING ACROSS NYS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIP WAS IN ASSOCIATION W/A STRONG JETLET FROM 850-700MBS OF 50-60 KTS AND WAA. THE NAM WAS HANDLING THIS SET UP WELL. THE 12Z GFS INITIALIZED WELL BUT WAS TOO FAST ON BRINGING THE PRECIP SHIELD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CANADIAN GEM WHICH TENDS TO DO WELL W/WAA EVENTS SUCH AS THIS ONE, WAS IN LINE W/THE NAM. ALL THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER WAS TOO COLD PER THE LAST 3HR TRENDS. THIS COULD MAKE IT A CHALLENGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP POSSIBLY ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL FIRST SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST THIS EVENING AND LIFT QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT DO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT(ABOUT 2 HRS) AT THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. THIS IS W/THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING(1000-700MB). IT WILL BE A FAST EVENT AND THE BEST DYNAMICS LIFT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING W/DRY SLOTTING PUSHING INTO THE REGION SHUTTING DOWN THE PRECIP. SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED W/HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN MAINE. FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE COULD BE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE DOWNEAST ESPECIALLY THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. A MILD DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 32F ALL THE WAY TO THE CROWN OF MAINE W/LOWER 40S EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOWEAST(BANGOR) AND THE COAST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO A WSW DIRECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND W/DEWPOINTS INT THE TEENS AND 20S, IT APPEARS MORE IN THE WAY OF EVAPORATION AND TRUE MELTING WILL OCCUR W/COMPACTION AND SETTLING OF SNOW. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLDER THAN AVERAGE AND GENERALLY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY, THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS IS TOUGH THIS FAR OUT. AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MOST MODELS DEVELOP A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SOME MODELS PUSH THE WARM AIR EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE OTHERS HOLD ONTO THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH CONSIDERING WE HAVE BEEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR SO LONG. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR WILL DROP TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN QUICKLY TO IFR W/SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT IFR INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY FOR KBGR AND KBHB BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY TO VFR. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR BY MID MORNING W/VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS. EXPECTED WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATER TONIHGT AND GUSTS COULD HIT 35 KTS FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO A 45-50 KT LLVL JET. DECIDED TO USE THE NAM12/GFS40 BLEND FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. WAVES AREA FOREAST TO BUILD ACCORDINGLY W/THE SSW FETCH. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S SETUP OF 8 TO 10 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SWELL COMPONENT LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP WITH WAVE GENERATION. SHORT TERM: OFFSHORE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 TO 7 FEET WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN, WE WILL BE LOOKING AT LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ002>006-010-011-031-032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FOISY MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FOISY

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