Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251315 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 915 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build down from central Canada today into tonight and crest over the region on Sunday. Low pressure will approach from the west Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 9:15 AM: Minor adjustment to hrly temps, otherwise previous forecast remains on track. Strong high pressure is currently building in from the northwest and will approach the region from the through today bring partly to mostly sunny conditions to the State today and clear skies tonight. The high will crest over the region during the early afternoon Sunday then move off to the east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Hipres wl be cresting ovr the CWA on Sunday with sunny skies and just a tad cooler than normal temps expected. Next system wl appch fm the southwest Sun night with pcpn beginning to enter into CWA aft 06z Mon. Ptype looks to start off as snow at onset with cold air damming scenario lkly drg the mrng into the aftn hrs. Warm advection aloft expected with swrly H8 flow bringing H8 temps to btwn +2 and +4C acrs swrn zones Mon aftn per latest NAM. Rmng med range guidance is cooler with H8 temps and wl lkly keep all snow thru the day. Unfortunately NAM tends to do the best in mixed precip scenarios and hv sided more twd this soln with some wiggle room with mention of sleet included as well drg the mrng as cold lyr looks to be approx 3- 4kft thick blo warm nose. Wl hv time to refine fcst as we appch event but all in all looks like mixed precip for the coast starting Mon morning and all snow acrs the St. John Vly at the same time. Wintry mix wl transition fm south to north throughout the day. Maxes for the day expected to range fm the lwr 30s acrs the north back thru the Central Highlands to arnd 40 along the coast. Wk wv wl track thru the Gulf of Maine Mon night with cold air damming lkly continuing thru the end of the short term. Thus, mixed pcpn wl lkly continue thru Tue mrng and possibly into Tue aftn as well. Appears that winter wx advisories wl be needed beginning Mon mrng thru Tue mrng for parts of the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Expect pcpn to continue thru the day Tue ahd of sfc bndry mvg acrs nrn zones. Med range guidance begin to differ significantly on Wed with EC and CMC weaker and further north and east with H5 trof as compared to GFS. For the time being hv dropped pops blo Superblend for Tue night into Thur and based on this think that Thur night and Fri wl be mainly dry under upr lvl ridge axis. Temps thru the end of the week wl be near normal with no major cooldowns in site. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions through tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR expected on Sunday, eventually lowering to MVFR late Sun night at BHB and BGR. Northern terminals will lower to MVFR before daybreak Mon morning with all sites IFR into Tue in mixed precipitation. Some improvement expected Wed afternoon for southern terminals. && .MARINE... Update 6:40 AM: Wave heights at 44034 and 44027 have now fallen below small craft advisory criteria, so the SCA has been cancelled. NEAR TERM: The NAM was used to populate the wind grids. For waves: currently wave heights are running 6 and 7 feet with a period of 8 seconds. The current wave system was generated in a southerly fetch across the Gulf of Maine during the last 24 hours. Since this fetch was confined to the Gulf of Maine wave height should subside rapidly this morning. A new northerly wind wave system will develop over the waters today and persist into tonight as high pressure passes to the north. Wave heights in this fetch will be a function of fetch distance off-shore. Will use the Near Shore Prediction System for waves which will work well with an off-shore wave system. SHORT TERM: Expect seas and winds to remain below SCA levels thru Monday before a southeasterly swell brings waves above 5 feet ahead of low pressure moving through the Gulf of Maine Mon night into Tue morning. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norton Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Norton/Farrar Marine...Norton/Farrar

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