Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 210713 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 313 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area today and move east Monday. An occluded frontal system will cross the region Monday night. Another low will approach from the southwest on Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure will continue to build across the region today. Abundant sunshine can once again be expected today as the air mass is very dry. After a chilly start, high temperatures are expected to rise into the mid to upper 60s across the region. Mainly clear skies can be expected this evening before mid and high clouds increase in advance of the next system approaching from the west. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Models cont to slow the advc of lgt shwrs/rn into the Rgn Mon, with any organized rnfl now looking to be exclusively Mon ngt as a weakening occluded front crosses the Rgn. Any patchy fog looks to be msly lmtd to near the Downeast coast late Mon ngt. Following the passage of the front, there will be a break in rnfl for the Rgn Tue and Tue ngt with ptly to msly cldy skies and late ngt patchy fog for the Downeast Coast. Temps thru this pd will not be far from avg for this tm of season.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Models are in reasonable agreement with bringing a lead sfc low pres system NE from the mid Atlc states on Wed affecting msly Downeast and Ern ptns of the Rgn late Wed into Wed ngt with max low likely PoPs. Another sfc low pres system associated with an upper lvl low will keep unsettled conditions across the region for the late week with max PoPs well in the likely range with potentially more organized rnfl. Temps will be near avg as a whole, with below normal day tm hi temps balanced by at to abv normal ovrngt lows.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR through tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR conditions all TAF sites xpctd on Mon with Nrn TAF sites lowering to MVFR clgs/vsbys in shwrs/rn Mon ngt and IFR for Downeast sites in rn/fog. All sites will rise to VFR by Tue aftn...and remain so thru Wed with IFR clgs/vsbys possible ovr Downeast sites Tue ngt. All sites lower to low MVFR of IFR in rn Wed ngt and cont so into Thu.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Wind/seas will remain below small craft advisory through tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No definable pd of SCA conditions, with wv hts possibly increasing to arnd 5 ft ovr our outer MZs by late week. Went with about 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts thru these ptns of the fcst. Patchy marine fog will be present at tms, spcly during the ngt and erly/mid morn hrs.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MEZ002-005-006- 010-011-031-032. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/VJN Marine...Duda/VJN

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