Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211956 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 356 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ONE LAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... LATEST SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE DEEPEST CU OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA AS OF MID THIS AFTN...SO WE WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLD SHWRS OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE...BUT SHWRS AND DEEP CU CLDS SHOULD MSLY DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET...LEAVING MCLR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF THE FA OVRNGT. WITH FCST LOWS XPCTD TO REACH OR EVEN FALL BLO CURRENT OBSVD DWPTS OVR VLY LCTNS LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MORN...WE CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY VLY FOG DURG THESE HRS..WHICH WE MENTIONED. OTHERWISE...TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY AND WARMER AS 500 MB HTS CONT TO RISE WITH A BUILDING S/WV RIDGE OVR NEW ENG. WITH A WSW SFC WIND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 3 DEG C WRMG OF 925MB TEMPS AND A CORRESPONDING 5 DEG F INCREASE IN HI TEMPS TUE AFTN OVR THIS AFTN. LCTNS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUE AFTN... WITH WINDS BCMG MORE SRLY WITH A SHALLOW AND LMTD INLAND SEA BREEZE BY MID TO LATE AFTN. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALS RIGHT ALONG WITH COAST AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG DOWNEAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE WARM, MUGGY AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER WATER THEN INTO THE COASTAL ZONES. WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN FAIR WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND REACHING THE COAST BY EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS FORECAST GUIDANCE DEPICTS SB CAPES IN THE 1000-2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS...CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN ROTATION. SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CAN ALSO BE NOTED IN THE FORECAST PROFILES AS WELL. FINALLY, DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS IN, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY STEEP. THUS, ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE BIGGEST THREAT ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH CAPES AND PWATS. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND ALSO DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE COAST AND THIS COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER ALONG THE COAST. ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING WITH OTHERWISE FAIR AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND OVERALL MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE LONG RANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE EAST. FAIR AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ANY SHOWERS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY SHOWERS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PERSISTING TROUGH ALOFT. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD THRU TUE...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF MVFR OR IFR VSBYS LATE TNGT IN PATCHY VLY FOG SPCLY KPQI...KHUL AND KBGR. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO COASTAL FOG WITH THE NORTHERN SITES REMAINING VFR.WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THESE SHOWER/STORMS. MVFR/IFR MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH WVS SLOWLY BUILDING TOWARD 4 FT OVR OUTERMOST WATERS WITH AN INCREASING SSW WIND FETCH BY LATE TUE AFTN. SHORT TERM: EXPECT SOME FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST AIR MOVES IN OVER THE COOLER WATER. OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SEAS HITTING 4-6 FT AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS

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