Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 190603 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 203 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATE... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE LATE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SUNDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ONTO THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A CHILLY WESTERLY BREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. MONDAY WILL BEGIN SUNNY AND COLD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM WITH STEEP RIDGING IN CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF MAINE THAT WILL BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST...A LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE COAST. BY WED MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO SE OF CAPE COD...BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL HAVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND IT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL BE STACKED JUST WEST OF THE SFC LOW OVER NJ. BY WED EVNG...THE GFS STACKS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SFC LOW OVER CAPE COD. THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE SFC LOW. BY THURS MRNG THE ECMWF CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS...MOVING THE CENTER TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER TO A SIMILAR LOCATION...THE GEM REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH EAST OF DELMARVA. FROM HERE THROUGH SAT AFTN...THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BOTH KEEP MAINE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE BROUGHT BACK INTO NRN AND CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF SUNDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR DOWNEAST ON TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS FROM A SOUTH SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE WATERS.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...NORCROSS/BLOOMER MARINE...NORCROSS/BLOOMER

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