Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201048 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 548 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the northwest today and this evening and crest over the region late tonight into Tuesday morning. After the high moves east Tuesday afternoon...A weak occluded front will cross the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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545 AM Update: A little less cloudiness and milder early morning temps were the biggest chgs this update, with the xcptn the xtrm NW which actually had morn lows sig colder than fcst. For most of the FA, a milder start resulted in nudging the fcst hi temps by 2 to 3 deg warmer than the last update, with intervening fcst hrly temps adjusted to bridge the gap. Orgnl Disc: Latest radar ref has shown sn shwr cvrg trending downward sharply ovr the last 3 hours, so we plan on just mentioning sct flurries across Nrn and Ern ptns of the region tdy with cld cvr only slowly giving way to clrg late tdy as an upper lvl low ovr the Can Maritimes slowly moves E toward the open N Atlc. With mdt llvl cold advcn...about 25 kt of winds alf in the 925-850mb layer and steep llvl lapse rates, tdy will be brisk with little recovery of hi temps to near seasonal norms this aftn from this erly morn`s lows. Winds will then subside this eve, becoming lgt and variable ovr broad vly regions late tngt as the sfc hi becomes ovrhd by erly Tue morn. Given this and a very dry hydro-lapse rate from the sfc to 850mb and cont`d clr skies, conditions will be ideal for a strong sfc base invsn ovr broad vly areas...spcly across the N. So despite modest late 925mb temps in the upper single digits below zero by late tngt, sfc base invsn strengths of 15 to 20 deg ovr spcly Nrn vlys will result in lows of 10 below to 15 below across these valleys with coldest lctns across the NW St John vly reaching as low as 15 below to 20 below.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure cresting over the region Tuesday morning will bring a sunny, tranquil start to the day on Tuesday. Sunshine will give way to some increasing high clouds Tuesday afternoon as temperatures rapidly recover to near normal after the dissipation of the morn invsn. Low pressure tracking through central Canada will pull a weak occluded front across the area Tuesday night. Some patchy light snow, or perhaps sleet in central areas, will move through late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures behind the front on Wednesday will then rise above freezing across the area reaching the upper 30s north to low 40s Downeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Later in the week, a small area of low pressure tracking to our north on Thursday will pull even warmer air across the region and bring a chance for some rain showers to the area. Highs may get close to 40 north and low to mid 40s Downeast. High pressure will then bring some clearing on Friday with the air still rather mild. Our focus going into the weekend will be on yet another low tracking to north. This may bring some snow or sleet across the north initially Friday night into Saturday morning as a warm front lifts across the area. Temperatures by Saturday afternoon should become warm enough for rain across the region as the low center lifts to our northwest. Colder air will follow on Sunday with a chance for snow showers as the low slides into eastern Quebec. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mostly low VFR clgs will prevail across the region tdy...bcmg unlmtd VFR tngt with intervals of MVFR clgs with flurries this morn spcly Nrn TAF sites. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected in high pressure on Tuesday. Conditions will likely lower to MVFR later Tuesday night in lower clouds as an occluded front moves through. A return to VFR conditions is likely Wednesday with some MVFR conditions possibly lingering across the north. MVFR conditions are likely Wednesday night into Thursday with occasional IFR conditions possible over the north on Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Will cont with the SCA for our outer MZs thru late tngt, with lgt fzg spy for all of our waters late tngt. Stayed pretty close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts thru the near term. SHORT TERM: High pressure across the waters on Tuesday will bring tranquil conditions over the ocean. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA through Wednesday and Thursday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/Bloomer Marine...VJN/Bloomer

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