Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 160509 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1209 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A small area of low pressure will track north of the area tonight. A cold front will cross the region on Friday. High pressure will approach Friday night and pass south of the state on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Update 12:00 AM: Have adjusted winds, dew point, and temperature grids. No other changes. Previous discussion... Low pressure tracking through Quebec will bring a mild night tonight with lows in the low 30s across most of the region. A few spotty rain showers are possible across the north. Otherwise, the sky will remain mostly cloudy. A cold front will approach early Friday and push across the area around midday. Forecast guidance has been consistent in showing a band of snow showers setting up across the central highlands extending from northern Piscataquis county east southeast through northern Penobscot and southeastern Aroostook counties as the front pushes into those regions. Went a bit above guidance in pops and QPF in this area as guidance often under forecasts precipitation in these mesoscale bands. Some isolated spots may see an inch or two of snow in this band. Otherwise, snow showers Friday should give a dusting to a half inch over the north. Colder air will rush in across the region on gusty northwest winds Friday afternoon with some clearing late in the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cold advection can be expected in the wake of the cold front Friday night. Winds will tend to diminish toward Saturday morning as the high builds across. Mainly clear skies could result in radiational cooling especially after midnight. Lows will range from 5 below to 10 below across the far north and zero to 10 above central and down east. Saturday will feature abundant sunshine as extensive high pressure builds to our south. Highs Saturday will be below normal with mid to upper teens north and low to mid 20s down east. The high slides east Saturday night and then the attention turns to a weak wave of low pressure that will be sliding off the mid atlantic coast Saturday night and to the south of the gulf of Maine Sunday. The system still looks like it will pass too far south to bring anything more than some light snow, mainly to the down east coast which may pick up an inch or two of snow through Sunday morning. The system moves quickly away from the area Sunday afternoon with decreasing clouds. Highs Sunday afternoon will range from the lower 30s north and mid to upper 30s down east. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A Moderating temperature trend is expected during the long term as an upper ridge builds off of the coast of the southeast united states. There still our some differences in the longer range with regard to the extent of the upper ridging across our area through mid week. The EC is stronger with the upper ridging and warmer, where as the GFS is a bit flatter with the ridging across our area. This will have implications as to just where the boundary sets up separating colder air across southeastern Canada and warmer air associated with the southeastern ridge. Also, there will be implications as to just how much moisture will make it into the area. Will have to monitor hydro conditions during the mid week period as well. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Highly variable conditions tonight into Friday morning ranging from LIFR in patchy low clouds and fog to VFR. Conditions may improve to VFR late Friday at the northern terminals as colder air advects into the region. Snow showers are expected Friday afternoon from the central highlands and into southeast Aroostook County with local LIFR and gusty wind. SHORT TERM: VFR weather conditions expected Friday night through Saturday. A weak area of low pressure will move east of the mid atlantic region Saturday night and then south of the gulf of Maine early Sunday. Some light snow could make it into the area after midnight Saturday through early Sunday morning. Best chances for any flight restrictions will be KBGR/KBHB where we could see IFR developing in any snow. VFR weather conditions return for Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA tonight into Friday morning. Gusty northwest winds will increase late Friday following a cold frontal passage, likely reaching SCA by the end of the day. SHORT TERM: Strong cold advection is expected Friday night across the waters with frequent wind gusts reaching up to 35 kt. Thus, a gale warning has been issued Friday evening through early Saturday morning. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Mignone

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