Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 260016 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 716 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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710 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO SHOW PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS W/CLOUDS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BE COMING DOWN AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GUSTS TO CUT THEM BACK. SURFACEANALYSIS SHOWED A TROF W/COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT W/A SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR STILL RESIDING BACK ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BASED ON CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE DURING THE EVENING, BUT EVEN THEN, THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY INTENSE SYSTEM AND SNOWFALL RATES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR AT MOST. HOWEVER, IT IS HIGH IMPACT BECAUSE OF IT OCCURRING DURING SUCH A HEAVY TRAVEL TIME. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW RATIOS WON`T BE THAT GREAT THOUGH, RANGING FROM AROUND 8 TO 1 ALONG THE COAST TO 13 TO 1 FURTHER INLAND. PART OF THE REASON FOR THE POOR SNOW RATIOS IS FAIRLY WARM AIR ALOFT ALOFT. THE AIR SHOULDN`T BE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET PROBLEMS, BUT IT ALSO WON`T BE GREAT FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH IN THE AREAS WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (DOWNEAST). SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE END OF THE STORM JUST A TOUCH. TRAVEL MIDDAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY EASIER THAN THURSDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING INTO AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A NEW LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY SAT MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST TO NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST TO VT/NH. BY MID DAY SAT...THE GFS MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME...THE ECMWF SLOWS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT KEEPING IT OVER NH. BY SAT EVNG...THE GFS MOVES THE LOW JUST NW OF QUEBEC CITY AND THE WARM FRONT TO ERN ME...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY AND MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME. THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL REMAIN OUT OF FAZE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING 6 TO 12 HRS BEHIND THE GFS. EARLY SUN MRNG THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SUN MRNG THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW ME. BY MON MRNG BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUST OVER LAND 30 PERCENT FOR WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT AND LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER AREAWIDE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN DEVELOPING RAIN WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM: ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, AS WILL THE SEAS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORCROSS SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS/FOISY MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS/FOISY

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