Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 301012 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 612 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT. A TROF WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT FROM LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH...TO THE MID 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST. LOWER TO MID 50S ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FROM OF RAIN...WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RE-DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY A SOAKING RAIN WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXCEPT FOR SOME SNOW MIXED IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN HIGHER TERRAIN...ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FROM OF RAIN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURES MOVES ALONG THE COAST THEN TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: LOCALLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR...COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 TO POPULATE WIND GRIDS THEN TRANSITION TO SUPERBLEND WINDS LATE MONDAY. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER MONDAY. EXPECT LARGEST WAVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES AND SHORTER PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY WIND WAVE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...AN ONSHORE WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE FIRE WEATHER...NORCROSS

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