Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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555 FXUS61 KCAR 251740 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 140 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level disturbance will cross the region this afternoon into the evening. A cold front will begin to cross the region Monday.
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145 PM Update... Latest radar showed some widely scattered showers popping up across northern and western areas. The HRRR was doing ok per the radar. A slight adjustment was done to pops to account for the radar. Another adjustment was made to the temps/dewpoints to match up w/the latest obs. Dewpoints across the n and w down into the mid and upper 40s. Threat for convection in this region has been diminished. Still thinking the best chance convection still across central and downeast areas later this afternoon into the evening. Still expecting small hail and gusty winds. Previous Discussion... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist this evening. Another cold front will approach northern Maine late tonight which will keep a chance of showers across mostly northern areas overnight. High temperatures today will range from the lower to mid 70s north, to the upper 70s to around 80 interior Downeast with mid to upper 70s along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 50 to the lower 50s north, to the mid 50s Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front is expected to approach from the northwest Monday then become stationary across the region. Low pressure will develop and move northeast along the front later in the day Monday. This is expected to produce showers across the area Monday night and into Tuesday. Thunder is also possible Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper level trough is expected to move across the region Tuesday night resulting in more showers. A second upper level system will approach from the west and move across the area Wednesday with additional showers. More showers are then expected again on Thursday as a third area of weak low pressure moves across the state. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Locally variable conditions could occur with any patchy fog early this morning. Variable conditions will also occur with any showers or thunderstorms this afternoon into early tonight. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected today through much of tonight. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains later tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Monday. MVFR/VFR are expected Tuesday through Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have issued a Beach Hazard Statement for paddle craft risk. Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels today through tonight. Visibilities could be locally reduced in any showers or thunderstorms later this afternoon into early tonight. Patchy fog is then possible later tonight. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize sustained wind speed. Will lower model wind speed by 10 percent due to cold sea surface temperature. Will transition to super blend winds late Tuesday. For Waves: South to southwesterly wind wave is expected to be the primary wave system Monday through Thursday. A secondary long period swell system (1-2 feet/10-12 seconds) is possible Wednesday and Thursday. Will use the Nearshore Prediction System for wave heights Monday and Tuesday then transition to the Wave Watch III late Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.