Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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995 FXUS61 KCAR 242213 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 613 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will build down from central Canada Saturday into Saturday night and crest over the region on Sunday. Low pressure will approach from the west Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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6:13 PM Update...Light snow continues to fall across the southern half of the CWA from Greenville-Lincoln-Danforth south to the coast. From Millinocket north to the Saint John Valley there are lots of clouds, but generally nothing more than flurries. An inch or two of snow may accumulate across the southern half of the forecast area, and have issued a special weather statement for the potential of icy spots. Web cameras do show some slushy spots on the roads. Temperatures are in the upper 20s and low 30s, but as sunset approaches roads and walkways will become more susceptible to icing if left untreated. Only some minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast based mostly on the 6 PM observations and the latest radar and near term model trends. Previous discussion... 18Z sfc analysis showed warm front lift across the region w/radar showing activity filling back in across central and downeast areas. Activity was in the form of light snow w/very light accumulations(< 1 inch) due to melting. Some sites across northern Maine such as MLT and HUL seeing some light snow. Temps across the central and downeast areas were tempered down a bit today given the snow averaging the lower 30s. Temps should warm a bit was precip lightens up. Further n, temps rose into the upper 20s and lower 30s w/little or no snow. 12Z UA showed a nice jet streak in the 850-700 mb layer helping to ignite the first batch of snow. The 12Z run of the NAM and the latest HRRR show this batch well and pushing as the warm front lifts n. The next wave of snow will come this evening mainly affecting the Downeast and southern Maine region. Kept 60-80% across central and downeast areas this evening and then drop them off sharply by midnight w/the loss of mid level forcing. Total accumulations expected are in the 1-2 inch range w/highest amounts across interior Downeast. Partial clearing later tonight as the cold front pushes across the region. Overnight temps forecast to be in the upper 20s across the n and w while central and downeast will see low/mid 20s. High pres is expected to slide east from central Canada on Saturday. There should be a good deal of sunshine w/a nw breeze of 10-15 mph. Despite the breeze, daytime temps should respond to the March sunshine. Decided to go above the guidance on Saturday maxes showing well into the 30s across n and w and low to mid 40s central and downeast areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure building down from Canada will bring a starlit and cold night Saturday night followed by a mostly sunny morning Sunday morning. High pressure will crest over the region on Sunday bringing tranquil conditions. Skies will begin mostly sunny. Some high cloudiness streaming over the top of the ridge will dim sunshine a bit during the afternoon. Clouds will then increase Sunday night ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. Some light snow may begin to push into western and Downeast areas toward morning Monday morning. Light snow is likely across the area on Monday as a weak upper level shortwave and disorganized surface low moves through. Precipitation amount`s looks like with only an inch or two of snow expected over inland locations. With temperatures rising well into the 30s, road surfaces should just be wet during the midday and afternoon on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... One weak wave of low pressure will slide by to the east Monday night with any snow tapering off to flurries and skies remaining cloudy with low clouds lingering. Another weak upper level shortwave and surface low will approach on Tuesday. Another round of light snow is likely late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Boundary layer temperatures will be warmer with this second system and snow will likely change to rain across Downeast areas Tuesday night. Precipitation will end Downeast on Wednesday. However, snow may linger across the north into Wednesday afternoon. An inverted trough from developing low pressure south of Nova Scotia will likely extend across the north and combine with an upper low moving over the region to extend snow or a mix of snow and rain across the north. The low will continue east Wednesday night into Thursday as gusty northwest winds follow. Flurries and lingering clouds are likely north with some clearing Downeast. High pressure will build over the area Thursday night bringing clearing and lighter winds. Another weak shortwave may approach with clouds and some light precipitation on Friday. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR this evening for FVE, CAR, PQI, and HUL. IFR conditions in snow for BHB and BGR, changing to a mix of rain and snow then to rain as a cold front moves through the area. The front will move through the area by around midnight, conditions at all sites improving to VFR from north to south Starting at around 9 PM tonight FVE and CAR will become VFR, 11 PM PQI and HUL and around midnight BGR and BHB. Sites will remain VFR to the end of the period. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions in mostly clear skies are expected Saturday night through Sunday. Conditions may lower to MVFR Downeast late Sunday night and remain VFR across the north. Mainly IFR conditions in low clouds are then likely Monday into Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: An SCA remain in effect for the coastal waters. Winds and Seas will continue to build this evening. Winds will begin to subside late this evening falling below SCA by midnight. Seas will remain above 5 FT until around 8 AM tomorrow. Winds and Seas will continue to subside tomorrow as higher pressure builds across the waters. SHORT TERM: Winds will be below SCA Saturday night into Monday morning as high pressure crests over the waters. A SCA may be needed late Monday into Monday night for east southeast winds ahead of approaching low pressure. Winds may diminish a bit on Tuesday as weak low pressure south of Nova Scotia moves away and another small low begins to approach from the Appalachians. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norton Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...CB/Norton/Bloomer Marine...CB/Norton/Bloomer

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