Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 080851 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 351 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SATELLITE PICTURES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRES ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF HATTERAS, NC. LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING SOME STRIKES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG A STRONG OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW PASSING ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF HALIFAX, NS AT 06Z TONIGHT. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE STORM WILL LIFT EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT, BUT WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS MAINE TO ANOTHER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY TODAY AND WILL SPREAD NORTH TO THE GREATER BANGOR AREA AROUND 3 OR 4 PM. THE SNOW WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WILL WILL EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES NORTH, BUT WILL LEAVE THE FAR NORTHWEST (NW AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN SOMERSET) OUT OF THE ADVISORY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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STEADY SNFL TUE MORN WILL WIND DOWN FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA BY TUE AFTN...TAPERING TO LIGHTER SN SHWRS. ALTHOUGH WE DID XTND WNTR WX ADVS NWRD INTO N CNTRL AND FAR NE PTNS OF THE FA BASED ON NEARLY ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING EVENT TOTAL QPF REACHING OR EXCEEDING 0.30 INCHES...THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL TYPE OF A MAJOR SFC LOW TRACKING WELL S OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH SFC RIDGING XTNDG SWRD FROM LABRADOR INTO NW ME NOT MATCHING THIS MUCH FCST QPF. WE BELIEVE A WEAK E-W...SLOWLY NWRD LIFTING SFC-700 MB TROF ACROSS THE REGION IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS OF STEADY SNFL MON NGT THRU TUE MORN. SO CONFIDENCE OF SN TOTALS IS NOT HIGH. SAYING THIS OUR FCST SN TOTALS WITH THIS UPDATE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 50 PERCENT THRESHOLD OF ENSEMBLE BASED FCST SNFL ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS A FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE FCST GIVEN THAT WE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THIS EVENT FOR THE ISSUANCE OF WNTR WX ADV HDLNS. FOLLOWING STEADY SNFL...CLDY SKIES AND SCT SN SHWRS WILL CONT LATE TUE AFTN THRU THU AS OTHER UPPER TROFS FROM THE GREAT LKS CROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE MILDER TUE THRU THU MORN...THEN TURN COLDER THU AFTN FOLLOWING AN ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND THE LAST SIG UPPER TROF.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AFT A BRIEF BREAK THU NGT INTO FRI MORN...A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS LIKELY GOING TO MOVE INTO THE FA FOR LATER FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP MID LVL VORTEX MOVES FROM NRN CAN TOWARD THE CAN MARITIMES. THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH 925-850MB TEMPS (BY 5 TO 10 DEG C) THAN THE 00Z ECMWF DURING THIS PD...SUBSEQUENTLY...OUR FCST HI/LOW TEMPS BASED ON A BLEND OF MODELS IS NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS WOULD IMPLY BY ITSELF...AND ALSO KEEPING IN MIND...THAT WE HAVE HAD NOT HAD ANY HI RESIDENCE ARCTIC AIR MASSES FROM NRN CAN REACHING OUR LATITUDE SO FAR THIS WINTER. FOR NOW...WE ARE NOT EMPHASIZING THE SFC LOW THE 00Z ECMWF WINDS UP IN THE GULF OF ME ON SAT ATTM...BUT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR AND AT TIMES VLIFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING AND TO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES IN STEADY FALLING SN TUE MORN WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR IN SN SHWRS FROM S TO N TUE AFTN INTO EVE...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES WITH SCT FLURRIES WED AND CONT TIL FRI WHILE NRN TAF SITES CONT MVFR WITH SCT SN SHWRS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WHEN THE GALES COME DOWN TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: AT OR JUST BLO SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SEAS HIGHEST TUE MORN FOLLOWING THE ENDING OF THE GALE PD AS STRONG LOW PRES EXITS INTO THE OPEN N ATLC. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FZG SPY...WITH LGT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TUE MORN ACROSS THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052. HEAVIER FZG SPY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEEK INTO HE WEEKEND WHEN MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY CROSS THE WATERS.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, AND TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. THE STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY MINOR SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING, BUT BECAUSE THE PEAK STORM SURGE CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF LOW TIDE THERE ARE UNLIKELY TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ002-004>006-010. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...CB/VJN MARINE...CB/VJN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CB

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