Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 132010 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 310 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A upper disturbance will move across the region this afternoon with gusty west to northwest winds. High pressure will then build across the region tonight through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Snow squalls/showers will be ending this afternoon w/winds dropping back. Much colder air settling in. Snow squalls and snow showers moving across ene Aroostook attm and will be exiting into NB w/in the next hr or so. Upper trof responsible for setting off this activity was moving through the region. WNW winds gusted to 45 mph in some spots this afternoon especially across higher terrain and open areas. Reports of some power outages and whiteout for northern areas today. Things will relax this evening w/winds gradually dropping off. Visible satl imagery showed clouds streaming off the St. Lawrence River w/teh cold air moving over the open water. Clouds will hang on a bit for northern and western areas this evening while central and downeast areas will clear out. It will be a very cold night as temps drop back below zero across the northern and central areas w/single numbers for downeast. We are talking almost a 40 degree difference from overnight temps last night. Winds will be staying up overnight w/the strongest winds across the northern 1/2 of the CWA which covers central Piscataquis County(Greenville). This will lead to wind chills dropping to AOB -20 F. Therefore, stayed w/the midnight crew`s assessment of a Wind Chill Advisory for overnight into Saturday morning for northern Maine including the Greenville and Millinocket region. Saturday will be a dry day but cold. Less wind as high pres ridges in from sw. Daytime temps will be in the single numbers to around 10F across the northern 1/2 of the CWA while central and downeast areas will see mid to upper teens.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Cold weather continues for the latter half of the weekend. Some snow showers will be possible over northern areas Saturday night as an upper shortwave trough pushes across northern Maine. Little snow accumulation expected, though. High pressure will build in on Sunday with cold and partly to mostly sunny conditions expected. Highs will range from around 10 above in the Saint John Valley to the mid 20s Downeast. The high will begin to shift east of our area on Monday while a weak wave dives down across Quebec. This may produce a few snow showers over the Saint John Valley, but most will remain dry. Monday will be warmer than Sunday, especially over the north where highs will be around 20. Southern sites will top out around 30.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure resumes its hold Monday night and Tuesday, keeping the weather fair. Then we`ll see another shot of milder air as our next system makes its approach from the southwest. Low pressure will move northward across the Great Lakes Tuesday night, lifting a warm front and its associated precipitation into New England Tuesday night and Wednesday. As is usual, the GFS and ECMWF don`t agree on the details with this system; the GFS brings the upper low across the Northeast US Wednesday, developing a surface low over Maine in the process. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is slower and weaker with the upper trough, bringing it through on Thursday. It also develops the surface feature further south, along the Maine coast. This all has impacts on precipitation type, placement, and timing. Have stayed close to a blend to account for the discrepancies. This gives snow changing over to rain for much of our region both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, with snow during the overnights. It does look like the bulk of any precipitation will exit by Friday with high pressure briefly building over the area.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Looking for VFR tonight into Saturday. The exception to this will be across KFVE as vsbys and cigs will dip to MVFR for a time this afternoon in snow. Things there should improve by 7 pm(00z). SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions are likely Saturday night, with IFR possible in scattered snow showers at FVE, CAR, and PQI. VFR will prevail Sunday through Tuesday with scattered to broken ceilings AOA 3500 ft. However, a brief period of MVFR ceilings will be possible at FVE and possibly CAR with isolated snow showers 06z- 18z Mon.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Gale Warning remains in place for winds picking up this evening w/gust to 35 kts. Winds will be dropping off after 03z or so w/the Gale most likely being downgraded to a SCA. The evening crew can assess tonight. The combination of the colder air, winds and water temps down to 44-45F will lead to the potential for some freezing spray. This will most evident for the intra- coastal zone. Decided to issue a Freezing Spray Advisory for early Saturday morning w/moderate icing. Local nomogram supports this potential. Conditions will continue to improve on Saturday as high pres ridges across the waters w/winds dropping off to 10-15 kts and seas down to 4 ft. SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions are possible Sunday as northwest winds become gusty to around 25 kt. With offshore flow, seas will be 3 to 5 feet. Winds and seas will both subside during the evening and expect them to remain below SCA levels through early next week.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for MEZ001>006-010. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for ANZ051-052. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Hewitt Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...Hewitt/Hastings Marine...Hewitt/Hastings

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