Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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268 FXUS61 KCAR 221308 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 908 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move into southern Maine this morning and then lift northward across the state into Quebec by this evening. After additional rainfall today into tonight, this low will bring unsettled and cooler conditions through the early and mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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850 AM Update... Adjusted the wind and QPF to match up with the latest conditions. Latest sfc analysis showed low pres moving n toward the coast. Satl IR imagery showed enhanced cloud tops se of the Gulf of Maine moving to the n indicating some heavy precip. Attm, heaviest rainfall n & e of the CWA w/yet a heavier batch across NYS. Still expecting another round of rainfall to move on to the coast later this morning and then lift northward. Added areas of fog for the forecast to downeast and coast. Previous discussion... Expect the rain will fill back in this afternoon as lift increases with the low`s passage. PWATs will remain high into this evening as well as moisture continues to wrap into the state around the low. Therefore, expect we`ll continue to see areas of fog through the day. Once the low moves to our north this evening, winds will shift more to the west and southwest, ushering in drier air. The rain will taper to showers again overnight Downeast, but northern areas will continue to see widespread showers as they will remain close to the low and favorable upslope flow. Overall, expect northern areas could see an additional inch of rainfall today and tonight, while Downeast, including the Bangor region, should get a half inch or less. See the Hydrology section below for additional details. Temperatures will hold steady or rise a bit through the day, so highs are expected to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. For tonight...cold air will begin to wrap in behind the low so the higher terrain could see some snow mix in late. The other concern for tonight will be gusty winds; the pressure gradient will tighten overnight as the low deepens over Quebec. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible, with higher gusts expected along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the mid and upper 30s over the far northwest, while the remainder of the region will remain in the lower to mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... lighter Stratiform rnfl will transitions to sct shwrs from S to N during the day Sun behind the cold front, with shwrs winding down across much of the region Sun ngt only to return to the region Mon, msly across the N hlf of the FA and contg thru Tue, before slowly diminishing on Wed as the upper low ovr ern QB wobbles before exiting as an E-W upper trof on Wed. Late ngt/erly morn sfc temps will be cold enough for sn shwrs across the high trrn of the N Sun ngt/Mon morn and spcly Mon ngt/Tue morn, with a rn/sn shwrs mixed for lower trrn Mon ngt/Tue morn with little or no accumulation xpctd attm. High temps will be much cooler Sun than tdy and even cooler Mon-Wed and sig below avg has the llvl core of cold air with and just behind the upper low tracks ovr the FA. Ovrngt lows, however, will be only a little below avg, being held up by cld cvr and winds. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Sfc hi pres from cntrl Can will finally bring clrg skies to the region Wed ngt with diminishing winds, allowing perhaps the coldest ngt of the Fall season so far. Aft a fair and milder Thu, the opnl 00z GFS and ECMWF are about as opposed as can be possible for Thu ngt and Fri, with the GFS indicating a continuation of fair and milder conditions with a building upper ridge ovr New Eng, and thew ECMWF showing a fairly vigorous s/wv and sfc low movg toward the region from the great lks. Looking for help to make a better determination as to what model is correct, referencing the GFS ensm indicates a much weaker, flat s/wv apchg the FA from the great lks durg this tm with lgt precip, albeit the the ensm looks to be a blend of widely dvrgnt solutions. The 00Z CanGem is much more in line with the GFS. For now, we accept blended guidance for Thu ngt and Fri, which brings a chc of precip, which we call shwrs for now. We capped max PoPs just abv 40 percent for now, and allow a brief start as sn late Thu ngt before chgng to rn by Fri morn. But given the the degree of dvrgnt model solutions, we cannot say there is any fcst confidence with this ptn of the fcst. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: LIFR/VLIFR will prevail through the period at all terminals. Low pressure lifting northward across the state will keep widespread rain and fog around through this evening. Conditions will gradually improve at the southern terminals after 00z Sunday as winds turn to the west and southwest and the rain tapers to showers. Northern sites will remain LIFR/VLIFR in widespread showers through 12z Sun. LLWS will be possible overnight as winds increase in response to the deepening low. SHORT TERM: MVFR clgs xpctd across nrn TAF sites with ocnl rn shwrs and late ngt/erly morn rn/sn shwrs. Downeast sites will be msly low VFR clgs with SC during this tm. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning for the outer waters, while the inner waters are now under a Small Craft for this evening and overnight. Winds are expected to remain under 25 kts through the day today. The outer waters will see building waves of 5 to 7 ft, but expect the inner waters will remain below 5 ft through a majority of the day. Then conditions deteriorate overnight as low pressure deepens to the north, allowing southwest winds to increase to 20-25 kt with gusts of 35-40 kt. Seas will build to 11- 14 ft. SHORT TERM: GLW conditions will cont ovr our outer MZs050-051 thru Sun into Sun eve with SCA conditions xpctd ovr the inner bay/harbor MZ052. An additional SCA pd will be needed ovr the outer MZs from late Sun ngt into Mon before all waters become free of hdlns mon ngt. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for this fcst update, with initial combined stm wv pds near 10 sec Sun morn...diminishing to a primary wind pd of 6 sec, with secondary swell pd near 12 sec by Mon ngt. && .HYDROLOGY... Although there will be a bit of a break across portions of the area this morning, overall expect widespread rain to continue through the day today into tonight. Additional rainfall from early this morning through tonight will be 0.50 to 1.5 inches with the highest amounts across the North Woods. The main concern will be nuisance-type flooding, particularly in any poor drainage areas where culverts may become clogged from fallen leaves. But no widespread flooding is anticipated and mainstem rivers should remain well within their banks. Smaller streams will show rises but are not expected to flood. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT Sunday night for ANZ052. Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT Sunday night for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Hastings/Hewitt Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Hastings/Hewitt/VJN Marine...Hastings/Hewitt/VJN Hydrology...Hastings is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.