Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 210139 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 939 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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920 PM UPDATE: FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED FROM OBSVD 8 AND 9 PM OBS TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS POSTED AT 6 AM MON. LARGEST DIFFERENCES WERE OVR COASTAL DOWNEAST AREAS WERE TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S WHERE LOWER TO MID 40S WERE ANTICIPATED AT THESE HRS. NO CHGS WERE MADE TO FCST LOWS OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH LATEST THINKING BEING THAT TEMPS OVR COASTAL DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LVL OFF FOR THE REST OF THE NGT GIVEN THAT DWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S. HIGHER DWPTS WILL SLOWLY WORK NWRD INTO THE REST OF THE FA LATE TNGT. ORGNL DISC: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT CURRENTLY SPANS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL DRAG A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AREA WIDE. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS QUEBEC ON MONDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS, BUT CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER OR TWO OVER NORTHERN MAINE AS THE LOW PASSES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FORM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE 50S, WITH 60S POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN BEGIN TO DRAW THE FRONT NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY WHILE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST LATER WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT LATER WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. A STEADY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE...FROM WEST TO EAST...LATER WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY EVENING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN OR DRIZZLE AROUND. THE LOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THE DAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MAY BECOME PARTLY SUNNY LATE AS RIDGING PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS AROUND THE MARITIMES LOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BREEZY ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD DAY ON FRIDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AOA 4000 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS LATE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, BUT GUSTS SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW 25 KT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... THE WORST OF THE ICE JAM ALONG THE SAINT JOHN IN THE VICINITY OF GRAND ISLE AND HAMLIN RELEASED EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN DROPPING ON THE SAINT JOHN..AND INDEED ALL THE MAINSTEM RIVERS...THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN STREAMS WILL STAY HIGH AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES IN EARNEST. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER NEAR MATTAWAMKEAG REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THIS RIVER IS HISTORICALLY VERY SLOW TO RECEDE, SO IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. ANY IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS HYDROLOGY...

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