Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251440 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1040 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM NORTHEAST. THE 12Z KCAR RAOB SHOWED PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH ABOUT THE 700 MB LEVEL. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A FEW SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DOWN EAST. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST SINCE IT STILL LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER TONIGHT. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DOWNEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH...TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS WITH SHOWERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE BLENDED THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. THE SUPERBLEND WAS USED FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE USED THE SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 INTO MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT AN EQUAL BLEND OF SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WAVE AND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 2 FEET. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS INTO MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE

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