Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 230232 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1032 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SYNOPSIS A cold front will move east into the Maritimes this tonight. High pressure will build across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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1010 PM Update... Clouds are breaking up as drier air aloft keeps working its way across the CWA. Showers have ended. Leaned toward clearing skies overnight w/light winds. NW winds look like they will stay up enough around 6 mph or so to keep the blyr mixed. Therefore, not looking for fog tonight except maybe some patchy ground fog especially in the valleys around sunrise. Temps were adjusted to fit the latest obs. Still looking for some sites across the north adn west to drop into the upper 40s by Tuesday morning. Previous Discussion.... High pressure will build in from the west tonight resulting in mostly clear skies in all areas. The strong high pressure system will then track to the south of New England during the day Tuesday. At the same time a cold front will drift down from the north. The front is expected to produce some clouds in northern areas however the high pressure system will bring mostly sunny conditions to the south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Relatively quiet period of weather with surface high pressure in control. There will be a fast moving 500mb shortwave trough moving across the Gaspe Peninsula Tuesday night, which could fire off an isolated rain shower across the Crown of Maine, but the remainder of the forecast area will remain dry. Warm front pushes north of the state of Maine during the day on Wednesday with a light shower possible across the Crow of Maine again, besides that warm conditions expected on southwest flow with mostly clear skies across Downeast and the Penobscot/Bangor region. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Thursday another fast moving 500mb shortwave trough will override the large 500mb ridge anchored across the Mid-Atlantic region. This will bring the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms across interior and northern Maine. Instability looks marginal at this point, so looking like general thunder at this point. Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms possible on Friday as as stronger trough and associated cold front is progged to swing through the state. Overall good model consistency at this point with the time of these disturbances. Looks like general thunder potential again on Friday, with no significant weather impacts expected. Weather looks nice on the weekend with high pressure firmly in control at this point. Temps will run above average for this period. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR Conditions tonight and Tuesday. SHORT TERM: High pressure in control, no impacts to aviation operations expected for this period. An isolated rain showers could be possible at KCAR/KFVE Tuesday night / Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: For sustained winds will populate with the NAM12 then reduce the model wind speeds by 10 percent to account for boundary conditions resulting from cold sea surface temperature. For waves: The primary wave system through Tuesday is expected to be from local wind wave (2-3 feet/4-5 seconds. There continues to be a secondary wave group composed of long period swell coming in from the southeast (1 foot/14 seconds). Will use the Near Shore Wave Model for wave heights. There appears to be a slight high bias in boundary conditions, however this appears to be well under a foot so will not make any adjustments to model wave heights. SHORT TERM: Seas and winds will be on the increase Thursday through Friday as high pressure is centered to the east of the Gulf of Maine. This will bring a prolonged period of sw winds over the coastal waters. SCA could be possible for waves and winds Thursday afternoon through Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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