Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KCAR 230232
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016
A cold front will move east into the Maritimes this tonight. High
pressure will build across the region Tuesday into Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Clouds are breaking up as drier air aloft keeps working its way
across the CWA. Showers have ended. Leaned toward clearing skies
overnight w/light winds. NW winds look like they will stay up
enough around 6 mph or so to keep the blyr mixed. Therefore, not
looking for fog tonight except maybe some patchy ground fog
especially in the valleys around sunrise. Temps were adjusted to
fit the latest obs. Still looking for some sites across the north
adn west to drop into the upper 40s by Tuesday morning.
Previous Discussion.... High pressure will build in from the west
tonight resulting in mostly clear skies in all areas. The strong
high pressure system will then track to the south of New England
during the day Tuesday. At the same time a cold front will drift
down from the north. The front is expected to produce some clouds
in northern areas however the high pressure system will bring
mostly sunny conditions to the south.
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Relatively quiet period of weather with surface high pressure in
control. There will be a fast moving 500mb shortwave trough moving
across the Gaspe Peninsula Tuesday night, which could fire off an
isolated rain shower across the Crown of Maine, but the remainder
of the forecast area will remain dry. Warm front pushes north of
the state of Maine during the day on Wednesday with a light shower
possible across the Crow of Maine again, besides that warm
conditions expected on southwest flow with mostly clear skies
across Downeast and the Penobscot/Bangor region.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday another fast moving 500mb shortwave trough will override
the large 500mb ridge anchored across the Mid-Atlantic region.
This will bring the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms
across interior and northern Maine. Instability looks marginal at
this point, so looking like general thunder at this point. Another
round of showers and isolated thunderstorms possible on Friday as
as stronger trough and associated cold front is progged to swing
through the state. Overall good model consistency at this point
with the time of these disturbances. Looks like general thunder
potential again on Friday, with no significant weather impacts
expected. Weather looks nice on the weekend with high pressure
firmly in control at this point. Temps will run above average for
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR Conditions tonight and Tuesday.
SHORT TERM: High pressure in control, no impacts to aviation
operations expected for this period. An isolated rain showers
could be possible at KCAR/KFVE Tuesday night / Wednesday morning.
NEAR TERM: For sustained winds will populate with the NAM12 then
reduce the model wind speeds by 10 percent to account for boundary
conditions resulting from cold sea surface temperature. For waves:
The primary wave system through Tuesday is expected to be from
local wind wave (2-3 feet/4-5 seconds. There continues to be a
secondary wave group composed of long period swell coming in from
the southeast (1 foot/14 seconds). Will use the Near Shore Wave
Model for wave heights. There appears to be a slight high bias in
boundary conditions, however this appears to be well under a foot
so will not make any adjustments to model wave heights.
SHORT TERM: Seas and winds will be on the increase Thursday
through Friday as high pressure is centered to the east of the
Gulf of Maine. This will bring a prolonged period of sw winds over
the coastal waters. SCA could be possible for waves and winds
Thursday afternoon through Friday.