Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241123 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 623 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THEN SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY AND TRACK INTO THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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620 AM UPDATE...WINDS HAVE FINALLY SUBSIDED THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP VERY QUICKLY OVER JUST THE PAST HOUR OR TWO; MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MAINE ARE -20F OR COLDER, WITH NEGATIVE TEENS BEING RECORDED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY SINCE THE WINDS ARE NOW BELOW CRITERIA, BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH THE AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IT`LL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY, BUT WINDS WON`T BE NEARLY AS BRISK AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. SKIES WILL START OUT SUNNY THIS MORNING, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE 0 TO 10 ABOVE IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE COASTAL AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO START FALLING ALONG OUR COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE EARLY, ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNEAST AREAS AS THEY WILL RISE TO NEARLY 30F BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATE TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN AREA OF DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH, SO WE EXPECT SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST LOCATIONS COULD GET A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO KEEP SNOW RATIOS ON THE LOWER SIDE. AS SUCH, DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO TO ACCUMULATE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SNFL TO AFFECT OUR FA WEN MORN INTO MIDDAY AS A SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NE FROM THE GULF OF ME INTO SE NB THRU THE BAY OF FUNDY. SIG...BUT COMPACT DYNAMIC LIFT OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM PARTICULARLY OVR DOWNEAST...E CNTRL AND NE PTNS OF THE REGION FROM WED MORN INTO ERLY AFTN BEFORE THE STEADY SN SHIELD MOVES NE OF THE REGION. WITH EVENT TOTAL QPF IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA...IT APPEARS WE WILL NEED WNTR WX ADVS FOR SN. WE WENT WITH MAX SN TO LIQ RATIOS OF 16 TO 17:1 INLAND FROM THE COAST...WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR FZG RIGHT ALG THE COAST DURING THE TM OF MAX LLVL WARM ADVCN REDUCING RATIOS TO 10:1 OR SO...OTHERWISE WE WOULD APCH WRNG CRITERIA SNFL HERE GIVEN THIS IS THE AREA WHERE THE MAX QPF IS XPCTD WITH THIS EVENT. IN FACT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN HR OR TWO OF MIXED RN/SN ALG THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS DURG THE MORN TO MIDDAY HRS. GIVEN OUR CURRENT WIND CHILL HDLNS...WE WILL HOLD OFF TIL LATER TO ISSUE WNTR WX ADVS FOR THIS EVENT...WITH ALL ZONES S AND E OF 1...3....4 AND 10 LIKELY TO BE INCLUDED IF THE CURRENT LOW TRACK HOLDS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A SHARP CUTOFF OVR THE NW PTN OF THE REGION...WITH NRN SOMERSET AND PTNS OF XTRM NW AROOSTOOK COUNTY RECEIVING LITTLE AND PERHAPS NO SNFL. SN WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF WED AFTN EVEN ACROSS NERN ME. MODELS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF BACKSIDE SFC PRES GRAD OVR OUR FA LATE WED AFTN INTO WED NGT... WITH THE 00Z GFS STRONGEST AND THE 00Z ECMWF WEAKEST. FOR NOW WE HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY BLSN...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A PD OF PATCHY BLSN FOLLOWING THE CONCLUSION OF FALLING SNFL. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM FOR WED NGT THRU FRI...ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS FOLLOWS...BUT THE CALIBER OF THIS AIRMASS IS NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE ONE THAT AFFECTED THE REGION YSTDY INTO ERLY THIS MORN. AFT THE ADVCN PD WED NGT...MODELS INDICATE A MDTLY GOOD POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THU NGT UNDER MSLY CLR SKIES... WITH A LONG SFC HI RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM THE WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE REGION...SUGGESTING THAT SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS COULD EXPERIENCE VERY COLD LOWS FRI MORN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... POTENTIALLY...ONE MORE VERY COLD NGT FRI NGT FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT MODIFYING...BUT STILL SIG BLO AVG HI TEMPS ON SAT UNDER MSLY CLR SKIES AS THE SFC HI PRES RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE FA. WITH THE CORE OF THE HI TRACKING EWRD OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST...LOW TEMPS SAT NGT WILL LIKELY BE HELD UP SOME BY A LGT WRLY BREEZE...EVEN OVR NRN BROAD VLY AREAS. SUN SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL REBOUND IN HI TEMPS...WITH INCREASING CLDNSS IN THE AFTN AS LOW PRES FROM THE SRN PLAINS BEGINS TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. LGT OVRRNG SNFL WILL BREAK OUT W TO E OVR THE REGION SUN NGT AND CONT INTO MON... ACCOMPANIED BY MILDER TEMPS BEFORE TAPERING TO SN SHWRS LATER MON AFTN INTO MON EVE. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LLVL WARMING FOR A RN/SN MIX ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST BY MON MORN AS SOUTH WINDS BRINGS MILDER ATLC AIR INTO THIS PTN OF THE FA. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SNOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNEAST THIS EVENING, 21Z-00Z, AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT IN NATURE, THOUGH KBGR AND KBHB COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN LIGHT SNOW, WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN HEAVIER SNOW AFTER 06Z. SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES WED MORN IN SNFL...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR AND VFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION WED AFTN AS SN TAPERS TO SCT SN SHWRS AND ENDS. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR THU THRU SAT...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR BKN-OVC SC AT NRN MOST TAF SITES THU. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GUSTS HAVE DROPPED TO 25 TO 30 KTS FOR THE MOST PART, WITH JUST A FEW UPWARDS OF 35 KT. HAVE THEREFORE DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THEM TO DROP BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS TO BELOW 5 FEET 8-9 AM. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SO LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA CONDITIONS XPCTD WED...PERHAPS INTO THU ACROSS OUR WATERS...THEN BELOW SCA WINDS/SEAS XPCTD THU NGT THRU SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT A PD OF MDT FZGSPY OVR OUR WATERS THU MORN AS COLDER ARCTIC AIR RETURNS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN

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