Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 141715 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1215 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west today and crest just north of the area tonight into Monday. High pressure will begin to slide east of the area on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1215 pm update... High pressure is bringing quiet but cold wx to the area tda. Full sun being felt pretty much everywhere outside of an isold area of stratus acrs the north streaming south twd the coast and a thin sliver of cirrus acrs Downeast. Prev discussion blo... Some low stratus lingers across northern areas and parts of the Penobscot valley early this morning and a few flurries can be spotted on radar. High pressure building in from the west will bring clearing today with a sunny and cold afternoon expected. A clear sky is expected tonight as high pressure crests across the northern part of the state. Calm air and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the teens below over the north and within a few degrees of zero Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Continued chilly w/daytime temps below normal for Monday. High pres n of the state will continue to provide dry air to much of the region. The exception will be along the coast as low pres passing well e of the region will deliver a glancing shot of snow to the immediate coast and outer islands. All the short range guidance including the NAM/GFS and GEM support this scenario as does the latest ECMWF. The NAM and ECMWF as most aggressive if you want to call it that w/bringing a few hundreths(0.03) to the aforementioned areas. The GFS and GEM deliver trace amounts of QPF. The precip will be in the form of snow. Attm, decided on 20-30% pops for the immediate coast and eastern Washington County. Any accumulation expected to be trace amounts. The snow pulls away later Monday night w/skies becoming partly cloudy. It will be a cold night as temps will most likely drop below 0F across the northern and western areas w/5-10F elsewhere. High pres will re-establish itself n of the state providing some sunshine for at least part of the day. Daytime temps will moderate to near normal readings for mid-January. Clouds will increase across the region during the afternoon as low pres apchs from the Great Lakes. More on this system in long term section below. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Some snow is expected for portions of the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. All the long range guidance now coming in line w/showing low pres moving in from the Great Lakes and a second low developing in the vicinity of Long Island. This low is then forecast to lift nne Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The ECMWF and GFS track the low across Nova Scotia. This track would bring a decent snowfall to the Downeast and eastern 3rd of Maine. The Canadian Global is further s and e and keeps the bulk of the offshore. A number of the ensembles of the ECMWF and GFS support their operational runs. Confidence is high enough to boost pops to 60-80% for east-central areas which includes the Bangor and Calais region. Further n, decided to bring high chance(50%) pops as far n as Northern Aroostook County. Attm, this event looks like it could bring 3-7 inches of snow to the east-central areas w/the highest amounts across the Washington County region. Further n and w, less snowfall. This appears to be a fast moving system w/an open upper level wave. The low is forecast to pull east of the area by Thursday morning w/high pres ridging in from the southern states. The airmass behind the system is not that cold w/daytime temps Thursday into Friday averaging slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours with only thin high clouds expected. SHORT TERM: MVFR possible for KBHB and KHUL for Tuesday and the potential for some light snow early. The rest of the region looks to be VFR until later Tuesday night as clouds move into the region and cigs drop to MVFR. Conditions look like they will deteriorate to IFR by Wednesday morning and possibly LIFR w/snow mainly from KHUL on s as low pres moves nne across the Gulf of Maine. Further n, from KPQI to KFVE conditions are forecast to be MVFR. This all hinges on a track of the low across Nova Scotia as referenced above. A track further n and w would be conditions down to IFR/LIFR all the way to KFVE.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SCA for north to northeast winds will have to be extended through tonight for the offshore waters as high pressure slides well north of the coast. A freezing spray advisory for moderate freezing spray will be needed from late this evening into Monday morning. SHORT TERM: Conditions look like they will below SCA levels w/winds 10-15 kts and seas 3-4 ft into Tuesday night. Conditions look like they will deteriorate to SCA levels by Wednesday night into Thursday w/low pres passing forecast to pass across Nova Scotia. We are talking ne winds of 15-20 kts and gusts 25-30 kt along w/seas building to 6-8 ft. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/Farrar Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Bloomer/Farrar/Hewitt Marine...Bloomer/Farrar/Hewitt

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