Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180751 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 351 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the Great Lakes combined with high pressure off to the east will produce a southerly flow of very humid air through Monday. A slow moving front will bring showers and thunderstorms across the area Monday into Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Not sure the dense fog adv will pan out alg the coast based on many lctns not yet experiencing vsbys of a quarter mile or less, but will keep the adv going in anticipation of the post dawn vsby drop that often occurs. To the N, fog will be more patchy til about 8 am. Otherwise, more in the way of low cld break-up and at least ptly sunny skies are xpcted across NE, Cntrl, and spcly NW ptns of the FA late this morn into erly aftn. It looks like NW vly lctns will reach the warmest hi temps of lower to mid 80s accompanied by sfc dwpts of mid to upper 60s, with hi temps declining as one traverses Swrd toward the coast where low clds and fog will linger longest thru the day thx to a saturated moisture llvl airmass moving Nwrd from the cold Gulf of ME. With the greatest htg ovr far Wrn areas of our Rgn by late aftn, fcst soundings indicate potential SBCAPEs upwards to 1200J/KG alg the QB border, so we do indicate a chc of shwrs/tstms here, even reaching low likely max PoPs in this area durg the erly eve hrs. Given fairly stable mid lvl lapse rates, for now we held off on any enhanced element wording, spcly considering the greater potential on Mon, but locally heavy rnfl is possible near the QB border. Otherwise, fcst PoPs fall off pretty quickly to S and E due to the stabilizing influence of a msly llvl Srly component wind from the Gulf of ME. Otherwise, low ST cldnss, patchy DZ and at least patchy fog cvrg will advance back to the NW during the ovrngt hrs. With dwpts remaining well in the 60s, ovrngt lows will only fall into the mid to upper 60s by erly Mon morn, xcpt cooler alg the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A slow moving cold front will be approaching western areas Monday morning as very humid air continues to surge north across the area on warm southerly winds. The air will be very moist ahead of this front with precipitable water close to 2 inches. Showers will push across the area ahead of the front and some thunderstorms, possibly with heavy downpours and gusty winds, will be likely, especially during the afternoon. The front will approach eastern areas late in the day, then a small wave lifting up along the front will likely increase bands of heavy rain Monday night. Flash flooding may be a concern in some areas. The front will push east on Tuesday. However, the air will remain humid behind the front and some scattered showers will continue to be possible. Humid air over the colder waters will likely produce fog and mist along the coast Monday into early Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Some drier air will begin to infiltrate the area from the southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure lifts north of the area and winds become southwesterly. We will then be in a zonal flow aloft going into the latter part of the week. Thursday will turn out partly sunny and warm. Lingering moisture over the area may result in some spotty showers or thunderstorms. A wave of low pressure sliding east of the Great Lakes may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity late Thursday into Thursday night. Drier weather should then return on Friday with high pressure sliding into the area. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR to VLIFR clg/vsby conditions erly this morn in fog and drizzle will improve quickly mid to late morn ovr Nrn and Cntrl ptns of the Rgn to MVFR and then to low VFR in the aftn. VLIFR and LIFR conditions will linger longer ovr Downeast areas with some improvement to IFR/low MVFR in the afternoon inland from the immediate coast before lowering again tngt. Nrn TAF sites will lower back to MVFR late this eve and IFR again late tngt as ST/fog moves back to the NW. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds and rain and fog are likely Monday through Monday night. Conditions should improve to MVFR on Tuesday, and possibly VFR late in the day. Mainly VFR conditions are likely Wednesday and Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Warm/moist advcn marine fog will cont to be a problem tdy thru tngt, lmtg vsbys below a half mile frequently. Otherwise, winds and seas will begin to rise again this aftn, reaching SCA thresholds by this eve and then contg thru tngt. We went with about 80 percent of WW3 wv guidance, which came down a couple of feet for these pds compared to ystdy attm. This yields max wv hts of 7 ft ovr our outer MZs durg the SCA pd, with wv pds arnd 7 sec. SHORT TERM: Wind gusts may approach 20 kt Monday into Tuesday in persistent south winds and seas may build up to 6 to 8 ft in response to the south winds. Dense fog is likely over the waters Monday into early Tuesday in the humid air. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Flash Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for MEZ001>006-010-011-015-031-032. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052.
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