Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 150050 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 750 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will cross the region early tonight. Low pressure will begin to approach from the west overnight then redevelop south of the Gulf of Maine on Wednesday. The low will then curve north and track across the Maritimes late Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Update... High pressure will cross the region early tonight. Low pressure will then begin to approach from the west overnight. Generally expect partly cloudy skies across the region early tonight, with increasing clouds overnight. Could also have a chance of snow late tonight across mostly western portions of the forecast area with snow accumulations less than an inch. Overnight low temperatures will range from around 5 below zero to 5 above zero north, ranging through the single digits Bangor and interior Downeast with around 10 through the teens along the Downeast coast. Have slowed the arrival time of the snow later tonight with this update. Have also updated to adjust for current conditions along with overnight temperatures and clouds. Previous Discussion... Tonight will be tranquil with high pressure cresting over the area this evening. Our attention then turns to a large clipper low diving down from central Canada and approaching the area late tonight. As the low slides east from the eastern Great Lakes early Wednesday morning it will begin to phase with a fast moving southern branch shortwave racing east across the southern states. As the two combine, the new low will redevelop south of the Gulf of Maine late Wednesday. Some snow will spread into our area, mainly western spots, on Wednesday as the Canadian low dives southeast. Energy will then shift offshore to the redeveloping low late Wednesday into Wednesday night. The large secondary low will focus snow mostly Downeast Wednesday night into Thursday with lighter snow across the north as it rounds the bottom of the trough then begins to lift northeast into the Maritimes. Snow will gradually diminish to snow showers Thursday as the new low lifts north across the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Winter storm warnings will be issued across central and Downeast locations with watches remaining in affect across the northern highlands where it remains less certain if warning criteria will be met. Northern Aroostook county currently has no headlines but may need an advisory.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A more quieter wx pattern expected by the end of this term. Intense low pres that brought more snow to the region will be exiting through the Maritimes. A cooler nw flow coming off the St. Lawrence River will lead to some streamers or snow shower activity right into Friday evening before things shut down. GFS soundings show rh >90% through 700 mbs and 925-850 layer winds of 35-40 kts that will support this activity. Decided to go above the guidance on pops w/around 40% across northern Maine. Some areas across northern Maine could see an inch of snow. Further s, nw flow/downslope flow will allow for partly cloudy conditions. The flow is forecast to weaken Friday night and continue into Saturday as high pres ridges in from the sw. This will lead to clearing and lighter winds allowing for a cooler night Friday night. All the long range guidance including the ECMWF/GFS and Canadian Global support this high pres ridging across the region w/sunshine expected. Temps are expected to be at or slightly above normal for daytime highs and around average for the low temps. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The rather quiet wx pattern is expected to continue through Tuesday w/the exception of a series of disturbances set to bring some snow showers to region Sunday and again on Monday. Nothing dramatics w/these disturbances except some snow showers. The disturbance on Monday in the form of a cold front that is forecast to move across the region could set off a few robust snow showers or perhaps snow squalls. A decent temperature change looks to accompany this front which would be a factor in the snow squall potential. Still plenty of time to assess this setup. High pres is expected to slide across the region Monday night into Tuesday w/moderating temps. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region tonight, though occasional MVFR conditions could begin to develop across western areas later tonight. Conditions are expected to lower to MVFR levels across northern areas Wednesday morning, with MVFR/IFR conditions developing Bangor and Downeast. IFR/LIFR conditions are then expected across the entire region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. SHORT TERM: MVFR into Thursday evening and then conditions expected to improve to VFR overnight for KBGR and KBHB. The northern terminals will hang onto MVFR into Friday morning. The northern terminals will see MVFR on and off through Friday while KBGR and KBHB will see VFR. VFR expected for all the terminals on Saturday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Conditions will be below small craft advisory levels on the waters tonight. Winds will then increase to gale levels on much of the waters Wednesday. A Gale Warning is in effect for much of the waters from later Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night, with a Small Craft Advisory for the intracoastal waters. Small craft advisory level conditions are expected across all the waters Thursday. Visibilities will be reduced in snow and rain Wednesday into Thursday. SHORT TERM: Looks like a strong SCA Thursday night into Friday w/a strong nw flow. Decided on 25 kts sustained attm w/gust potential to 30 kt. Gusts to 35 kts are possible over the outer waters. Seas will be tampered down a bit due to the offshore flow. Consensus was to carry 5-8 for seas and then have them dropping off later Friday into Friday night. Conditions are expected to improve on Saturday as high pres is forecast to build across the waters.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday for MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon for MEZ003>006. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ052. Gale Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Norcross/Hewitt Marine...Norcross/Hewitt

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