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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 211024
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS... NO OTHER CHANGES.


LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH TODAY THEN
CLEARING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HAVE BLENDED THE
NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR WIND HAVE USED
THE MOSG25. MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FROM THE BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THIS TERM W/CONVECTION A
GOOD POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRES IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY W/THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WARMING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A CAPPING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND ESSENTIALLY SHUTTING OFF
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE AT THE SURFACE AND W/A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS
EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS A SSW WIND WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES BEING COOLED FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY
DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
START OUT W/SOME SUNSHINE BY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WARM ALOFT TO START OUT THE DAY W/A CAP IN PLACE,
BUT AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND THE FRONT APPROACHES, THIS CAP
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE BROKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CUMULUS TO BUILD
AND CONVECTION TO START FIRING. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
CONVECTION ARE THE BIG QUESTIONS ATTM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE
STILL THE FASTEST OF THE GUIDANCE IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES IT COURSE OF
BEING ABOUT 3 HRS SLOWER. GIVEN HOW THE UPPER FLOW ALIGNS W/THE
FRONT, DECIDED TO SLOW THINGS UP A BIT AND ALLOWING FOR MORE
HEATING W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HITTING UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1200-2000 J/KG W/LIS
-3 TO -5. THERE IS HEALTHY SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER OF 35+ KTS
W/SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. DEPENDING ON THE GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE,
0-3KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-300 M2/S2 WHICH
POINTS TO SOME ROTATION OF STORMS. PWATS FORECAST TO BE IN 1.5+
INCHES. LLVL LAPSE RATES(0-3KM) ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 7-8
C/KM WHILE THE 85-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER W/AROUND 6.0 C/KM.
THIS COULD BE OFFSET HOWEVER BY THE LLVL HEATING IF IT HANGS ON
LONG ENOUGH. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP ENHANCED WORDING THE FORECAST
W/HEAVY RAIN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HAIL MIGHT BE
HARD TO COME BY W/FREEZING LEVELS AT 14K FT. WINDS & HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT. DAY3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY SE TOWARD THE MAINE
COAST W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT AS COOLING SETS IN THROUGH THE COLUMN. A WAVE OF LOW PRES
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
HALT THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE, THE DOWNEAST
REGION WILL HANG ON TO SOME SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
W/COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING DOWN INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SWING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP BOTH DAYS W/THE RISK OF A SHOWER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COOL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S
RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY W/THE EXCEPTION
OF KBGR AND KBHB AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP W/A
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TSTMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR FOR KBGR
AND KBHB FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHILE THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECT PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TO BE LONG PERIOD
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/8 SECONDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. A SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY W/WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT AWAY FROM THE
INTRA-COASTAL ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HITTING 4-5 FT AND ONCE AGAIN AWAY FROM
THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. SSW WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT