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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 132200
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
600 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west tonight then slide
south of the region Monday into Monday night. A cold front will
approach on Tuesday and cross the area Tuesday night. Canadian
high pressure will build in from the west Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
557 PM Update...
Visible satl imagery showed cumulus clouds dissipating w/the
loss of heating. Last bit of showers/tstms moving off the coast.
Had reports earlier on the Washington County coast of hail and
strong winds from some severe storms that went through portions
of the area. Daycrew`s trends look good and see no reason to
adjust the pops and things are winding down.Temps/dewpoints were
adjusted to account for the latest conditions w/the cooling
trend. Cooler night coming up and a bit drier. Will monitor
things for possible fog development overnight especially for
areas that received rainfall today.

Previous Discussion...
Any lingering convection across down east will quickly diminish
through late afternoon as the cold front continues to push
offshore of the down east Maine coast. This will set the stage
for a rather pleasant evening and overnight across the region,
as high pressure builds into the region behind the departing
front. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s
north and mid to upper 50s down east.

Monday is shaping up as a nice mid summer day across the region.
A weak warm front lifting up across the region will bring a bit
more in the way of clouds across northwest Maine and an isolated
shower clouldn`t be ruled out along the Maine/Quebec border
during the afternoon. Highs Monday afternoon will climb well up
into the 70s to near 80 degrees across the north and low 80s
across central and down east areas, which is actually a few
degrees above the normal highs for this time of year.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure moving off to our southeast combined with a trough of
low pressure approaching from the west will bring a return flow of
humid air Monday night into Tuesday. A strong cold front will
approach on Tuesday. A pre-frontal trough ahead of the front will
move across the area Tuesday afternoon providing some focus for
showers and thunderstorms. Capes are projected to be from 500-700
J/KJ supporting moderate storms but likely little or no severe
storms. Any showers or thunderstorms will likely move east of our
area into New Brunswick later Tuesday evening. However, some
isolated showers or thunderstorms may pop up in the far northwest
ahead of the main cold front later Tuesday night. The front will
cross the area overnight. A deep upper level trough of low pressure
well north across Quebec combined with high pressure building in
from the northwest will push some much cooler and drier air across
the area on Wednesday upon gusty northwest winds. The north will be
partly cloudy with a cumulus field over the north while Downeast has
a mostly sunny sky on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Wednesday night will be a mostly clear and chilly night as high
pressure continues to build in from the northwest. Thursday will
then feature plenty of sunshine with high pressure building over.
This will be followed by a mostly clear night Thursday night. High
pressure will slide to the east on Friday. The return flow behind
the high will bring a slight increase in humidity and clouds may
begin to increase ahead of a weak trough approaching from the Great
Lakes. Clouds will increase Friday night. Some showers and embedded
thunderstorms are then possible on Saturday as the trough moves in
and winds increase from the south ahead of the trough. Winds from
the south, off the ocean, my limit surface instability, especially
Downeast on Saturday. However, shear looks strong and an influx of
humid air in the boundary layer may support elevated convection
across the area. The best chance for surface based convective storms
will be in western and northwestern areas on Saturday. The trough
will move away on Sunday as skies partially clear. This will be
followed by dry weather to start the following week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected overnight through Monday.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Monday night with the
possible exception of some stratus reducing conditions to IFR
near the coast late at night. VFR conditions are expected on
Tuesday except in an thunderstorms. Conditions should be VFR
Tuesday night and remain VFR into Friday as high pressure builds
over.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels through Monday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
Monday night through Tuesday night. West, northwest winds will
be gusty Wednesday into Wednesday night possibly approaching SCA
in gusts. Winds should diminish Thursday into Thursday night
and be light on Friday under high pressure.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/Hewitt
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Duda/Hewitt/Bloomer
Marine...Duda/Hewitt/Bloomer