Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211024 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 624 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE 0625 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS... NO OTHER CHANGES. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH TODAY THEN CLEARING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR WIND HAVE USED THE MOSG25. MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THIS TERM W/CONVECTION A GOOD POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRES IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY W/THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WARMING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CAPPING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND ESSENTIALLY SHUTTING OFF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AT THE SURFACE AND W/A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS A SSW WIND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BEING COOLED FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL START OUT W/SOME SUNSHINE BY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WARM ALOFT TO START OUT THE DAY W/A CAP IN PLACE, BUT AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND THE FRONT APPROACHES, THIS CAP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE BROKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CUMULUS TO BUILD AND CONVECTION TO START FIRING. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION ARE THE BIG QUESTIONS ATTM. THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE STILL THE FASTEST OF THE GUIDANCE IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES IT COURSE OF BEING ABOUT 3 HRS SLOWER. GIVEN HOW THE UPPER FLOW ALIGNS W/THE FRONT, DECIDED TO SLOW THINGS UP A BIT AND ALLOWING FOR MORE HEATING W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HITTING UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1200-2000 J/KG W/LIS -3 TO -5. THERE IS HEALTHY SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER OF 35+ KTS W/SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. DEPENDING ON THE GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE, 0-3KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 150-300 M2/S2 WHICH POINTS TO SOME ROTATION OF STORMS. PWATS FORECAST TO BE IN 1.5+ INCHES. LLVL LAPSE RATES(0-3KM) ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 7-8 C/KM WHILE THE 85-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER W/AROUND 6.0 C/KM. THIS COULD BE OFFSET HOWEVER BY THE LLVL HEATING IF IT HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP ENHANCED WORDING THE FORECAST W/HEAVY RAIN, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HAIL MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY W/FREEZING LEVELS AT 14K FT. WINDS & HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT. DAY3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY SE TOWARD THE MAINE COAST W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT AS COOLING SETS IN THROUGH THE COLUMN. A WAVE OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL HALT THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE, THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL HANG ON TO SOME SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY W/COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING DOWN INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SWING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BOTH DAYS W/THE RISK OF A SHOWER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBGR AND KBHB AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP W/A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTMS AND LLWS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECT PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TO BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 2 FEET/8 SECONDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. A SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY W/WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HITTING 4-5 FT AND ONCE AGAIN AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. SSW WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWER AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT

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