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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 180751
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
351 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Great Lakes combined with high pressure
off to the east will produce a southerly flow of very humid air
through Monday. A slow moving front will bring showers and
thunderstorms across the area Monday into Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Not sure the dense fog adv will pan out alg the coast based on
many lctns not yet experiencing vsbys of a quarter mile or less,
but will keep the adv going in anticipation of the post dawn
vsby drop that often occurs. To the N, fog will be more patchy
til about 8 am. Otherwise, more in the way of low cld break-up
and at least ptly sunny skies are xpcted across NE, Cntrl, and
spcly NW ptns of the FA late this morn into erly aftn. It looks
like NW vly lctns will reach the warmest hi temps of lower to
mid 80s accompanied by sfc dwpts of mid to upper 60s, with hi
temps declining as one traverses Swrd toward the coast where low
clds and fog will linger longest thru the day thx to a
saturated moisture llvl airmass moving Nwrd from the cold Gulf
of ME.

With the greatest htg ovr far Wrn areas of our Rgn by late aftn,
fcst soundings indicate potential SBCAPEs upwards to 1200J/KG
alg the QB border, so we do indicate a chc of shwrs/tstms here,
even reaching low likely max PoPs in this area durg the erly eve
hrs. Given fairly stable mid lvl lapse rates, for now we held
off on any enhanced element wording, spcly considering the
greater potential on Mon, but locally heavy rnfl is possible
near the QB border. Otherwise, fcst PoPs fall off pretty quickly
to S and E due to the stabilizing influence of a msly llvl Srly
component wind from the Gulf of ME.

Otherwise, low ST cldnss, patchy DZ and at least patchy fog cvrg
will advance back to the NW during the ovrngt hrs. With dwpts
remaining well in the 60s, ovrngt lows will only fall into the
mid to upper 60s by erly Mon morn, xcpt cooler alg the immediate
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A slow moving cold front will be approaching western areas Monday
morning as very humid air continues to surge north across the area
on warm southerly winds. The air will be very moist ahead of this
front with precipitable water close to 2 inches. Showers will push
across the area ahead of the front and some thunderstorms, possibly
with heavy downpours and gusty winds, will be likely, especially
during the afternoon. The front will approach eastern areas late in
the day, then a small wave lifting up along the front will likely
increase bands of heavy rain Monday night. Flash flooding may be a
concern in some areas. The front will push east on Tuesday. However,
the air will remain humid behind the front and some scattered
showers will continue to be possible. Humid air over the colder
waters will likely produce fog and mist along the coast Monday into
early Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some drier air will begin to infiltrate the area from the southwest
Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure lifts north of the area
and winds become southwesterly. We will then be in a zonal flow
aloft going into the latter part of the week. Thursday will turn out
partly sunny and warm. Lingering moisture over the area may result
in some spotty showers or thunderstorms. A wave of low pressure
sliding east of the Great Lakes may enhance shower and thunderstorm
activity late Thursday into Thursday night. Drier weather should
then return on Friday with high pressure sliding into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR to VLIFR clg/vsby conditions erly this morn in
fog and drizzle will improve quickly mid to late morn ovr Nrn
and Cntrl ptns of the Rgn to MVFR and then to low VFR in the
aftn. VLIFR and LIFR conditions will linger longer ovr Downeast
areas with some improvement to IFR/low MVFR in the afternoon
inland from the immediate coast before lowering again tngt. Nrn
TAF sites will lower back to MVFR late this eve and IFR again
late tngt as ST/fog moves back to the NW.

SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds and rain and fog are
likely Monday through Monday night. Conditions should improve to
MVFR on Tuesday, and possibly VFR late in the day. Mainly VFR
conditions are likely Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Warm/moist advcn marine fog will cont to be a
problem tdy thru tngt, lmtg vsbys below a half mile frequently.
Otherwise, winds and seas will begin to rise again this aftn,
reaching SCA thresholds by this eve and then contg thru tngt. We
went with about 80 percent of WW3 wv guidance, which came down
a couple of feet for these pds compared to ystdy attm. This
yields max wv hts of 7 ft ovr our outer MZs durg the SCA pd,
with wv pds arnd 7 sec.

SHORT TERM: Wind gusts may approach 20 kt Monday into Tuesday
in persistent south winds and seas may build up to 6 to 8 ft in
response to the south winds. Dense fog is likely over the
waters Monday into early Tuesday in the humid air.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...Flash Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
     morning for MEZ001>006-010-011-015-031-032.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ050>052.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...VJN/Bloomer
Marine...VJN/Bloomer