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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 260836
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
336 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS OF A LARGE AND STRONG ARCTIC HI PRES SYSTEM FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL PERSIST TDY THRU FRI. MEANWHILE...SOME MID AND
UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM LOW PRES EXITING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST
COULD REACH AS FAR N AS DOWNEAST AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA LATER
TDY AND CONTG INTO THIS EVE...WITH CI POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR N
AS NRN ME. CLDS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE TNGT INTO ERLY FRI MORN AS
THE LOW MOVES WELL OE INTO THE OPEN ATLC. WITH MDTLY COLD ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE...AFTN HI TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL TDY AND
AGAIN ON FRI. THE W-E AXIS OF THE SFC RIDGE OVR OUR FA IS FAIRLY
FAVORABLE FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE THIS EVE AND FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIG ARCTIC SFC BASE INVSN OVR SPCLY BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS. HI
CLDNSS MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TNGT EVEN
OVR NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT DESPITE THIS...OVRNGT LOWS THU NGT WILL
STILL BE WELL BLO ZERO AT MST LCTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE EXTENT OF NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
DECOUPLING VERSUS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE HIGH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER SOLUTIONS
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW 30S ON
THE COAST. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY SKIES...HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ENERGIZE
A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AND INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND FOLLOW THE RECENT
PATTERN OF HIGHER TOTALS DOWN EAST AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM IS A FAST-MOVER AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN SOUTHERN ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT AND CREATE ANOTHER
TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR NOW. THE HIGH WILL
PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COLD DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING RAPIDLY OUT OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND GENERATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT AND COULD
PROVIDE SOME MIXED PRECIP IN SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD ACROSS THE TAF SITES TDY THRU FRI WITH
A BRIEF INTERVAL OR TWO OF MVFR SC CLGS WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE
UNTIL ERLY AFTN TDY AT NRN MOST TAF SITES.

SHORT TERM: VFR UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT IFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING DUE TO SNOW. VLIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA NW WIND GUSTS WILL CONT TIL ABOUT 6-7 AM THIS MORN.
AFTERWARDS...MDT FZGSPY WILL CONT ACROSS THE WATERS FOR MOST OF
TDY AND AGAIN OVRNGT TNGT INTO FRI MORN...WITH A BREAK TO LGT
FZGSPY POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. GIVEN THE SHORT
NATURE OF THIS BREAK...IT JUST MADE SENSE TO CONT THE CURRENT
FZGSPY ADV TIL 10 AM FRI. BLENDED CURRENT BUOY OBSVD WV
HTS...WHICH WERE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WW3 WV GUIDANCE
...TO WW3 BY THIS EVE...AND CONT WITH WW3 WV GUIDANCE TNGT THRU
FRI.

SHORT TERM: NO CLEAR CUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL
MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW