Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211446 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 946 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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945 AM UPDATE...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROF SLIDING SE ACROSS THE STATE. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED LIGHT RETURNS W/THE OBS INDICATING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS(IE.KFVE). 12Z CAR RAOB SHOWED AN UNSTABLE SOUNDING W/SB CAPE AROUND 60 AND FAIRLY STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE FOR EARLY WINTER. LAPS SOUNDINGS MATCH THE CAR RAOB AND SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE. THE 12KM WRF INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE HUL AN MLT REGION BACK ACROSS MT. KATAHDIN THROUGH 2 PM W/NW FLOW COMING OFF OPEN ST. LAWRENCE INDICATING THE STREAMER POTENTIAL. ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL W/A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. STAYED W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW`S ASSESSMENT OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THANKS TO THE LLVL LAPSE RATES. ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850 MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE`S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3- HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY, WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN REACHES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR HITS THE WATER TODAY. THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY MOST OF THE NIGHT. SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/HASTINGS MARINE...CB/HEWITT/HASTINGS

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