Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 262236 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 636 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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615 PM UPDATE: 22Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES MOVING NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE W/THE STEADIEST PRECIP SHIELD FROM HOULTON-MILLINOCKET ON SOUTH TO THE COAST. ADJUSTED THE 70-80% POPS A BIT FURTHER S TO COVER TEH AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP, THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND WNW AREAS COULD STAY DRY. ATTM, DECIDED TO LOWER THE POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE(20%). TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD AS THEY ARE NOT FALLING BACK AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY TO THE E AND S. BACK ACROSS THE W AND NW, READINGS ARE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SWRD WITH THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WV OF SFC LOW PRES MOVG E FROM CNTRL NEW ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. WHAT THIS IMPLIES IS THE DYNAMICS DO NOT LAST VERY LONG THIS EVE ACROSS PTNS OF THE FA THAT WOULD BECOME COOL ENOUGH FOR SN EARLIEST DUE EVAPORATIVE AND DYNAMIC COOLING...NAMELY THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE HIGH TERRAIN IN AND ARND BAXTER ST PARK. THIS RESULTED IN US LOWERING SNFL ACROSS THIS PTN OF THE FA IN PARTICULAR. ANOTHER REASON IS THAT TEMPS OVR THIS AREA THIS AFTN WERE ABOUT 5 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO BL TEMPS WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF MORE HRS LONGER TO COOL TO SUPPORT ALL SN. ACROSS THE N...IT IS NOW UNCERTAIN WHETHER STEADY PRECIP WILL REACH EXTREME NRN PTNS OF THE FA...SO POPS WERE LOWERED TO CHC OR LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH NOT ENOUGH QPF FOR RN TO CHG TO ANY SN OF SIGNIFICANCE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS LATE TNGT. DOWNEAST AREAS MAY SEE RN CHG TO SN LATE TNGT BEFORE PRECIP THERE ENDS ARND DAYBREAK. THE GREATEST QPF OF ARND A HALF INCH WILL BE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. OTHERWISE...SFC HI PRES FROM CNTRL CAN WILL PUSH CLDS AND PRECIP NOT MUCH FURTHER S THAN THE GULF OF ME FRI INTO FRI NGT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF HANGS BACK OVR THE GREAT LKS AND N CNTRL APLCHNS. COLDER SEMI-ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE FA FROM QB BEGINNING VERY LATE TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI NGT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE...WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY SUN EVNG...THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST SOUTH OF ERN NOVA SCOTIA WITH REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE...HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NW MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MON MRNG. LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR HRLY T/DP/WNDS/SKY/POP GRIDS...LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR QPF. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. ADDED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A NEW LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH ERN NY. MON MRNG THE BY MON MRNG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE....AND BY TUE AFTERNOON A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS...BEFORE A NEW LOW MOVES INTO CAPE COD REGION...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT INTO SRN MAINE BY EARLY WED MRNG. WED MRNG THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION AND MOVE MVMNT OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS MOVES THE LOW EAST ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MAINE...WITH OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND INTO CNTRL MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES TO LOW OVER CAPE COD WRAPPING THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO SW MAINE. WED EVNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA... THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW SOUTH OF SW NOVA SCOTIA WITH THE OCCLUSION WRAPPED INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FOR WED NGT AND THURS. THURS NGT TWO LOWS ONE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THE OTHER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE INTO MAINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 35 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MOST TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO IFR BY EVE AS RN AND RN CHGNG TO SN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NRN MOST TAF SITES MAY ONLY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOW VFR DUE TO VERY LGT PRECIP. OTHERWISE AFT THE PRECIP MOVES ESE OF THE FA...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO VFR FRI MORN AND CONT SO THRU FRI NGT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SAT AND SUN INCREASING CLOUDS BCMG MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CURRENTLY WVS JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER...WW3 WV GUIDANCE INDICATES SWELLS FROM LOW PRES OVR THE OPEN ATLC MOVG INTO OUR OUTER MZS AFT MDNGT TNGT AND CONTG THRU FRI...SO WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR THESE MZS. AFTWRDS...WIND GUSTS MAY REACH OR EXCEED 25 KTS FRI NGT...SO WE MAY NEED TO TRANSITION TO A GENERIC SCA BY TOMORROW`S AFTN FCST UPDATE. WE WENT CLOSE TO WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WNDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN SHORT TERM...NORTON LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/NORTON MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/NORTON

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