Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 171934 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 334 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEHIND AN EXITING SHORT WAVE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATER TONIGHT. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S DOWNEAST. A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF IS FORECASTED TO CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE REGION DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONE LAST UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MILD WEATHER IS COMING TO AN END LATE THIS WEEKEND AND SOME MUCH CHILLIER AIR IS COMING IN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH, ESPECIALLY UP IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. COOLER AIR WILL THEN BEGIN SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A WET SNOW SHOWER IS EVEN POSSIBLE IN WESTERN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1200 FT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL THEN BRING BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DIPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY SPOTS AND HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND NEAR 50 DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE, STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL KEEP NORTHERN AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE DOWNEAST REGION EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE. A LOW EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKE WILL MOVE TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. WED MRNG THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS HAS IT ALONG THE COAST OF NJ...ECMWF ALONG THE COAST OF DELMARVA WITH A SECONDARY LOW SE OF CAPE COD...THE GEM OFF THE ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW POSITIONS REFLECT THE DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPICTION OF THE EXTEND TO THE PRECIP BANDS. THE GFS BRINGS PCPN INTO THE PORTLAND AREA...THE ECMWF AND GEM INTO THE BAR HARBOR AREA. BY WED EVNG THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN WITH PCPN SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT THE CROWN OF MAINE. ALL THREE SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW...AS WELL AS A SUPPORTING CLOSE LOW AT 500 MB. ALL ARE SHOWING A SFC LOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO GO COLD CORE. THE TREND CONTINUES INTO FRI...COLD CORE LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...ACROSS MAINE. BY FRI EVNG THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE TOWARDS THE BAY OF FUNDY. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE COLD CORE LOW WILL BE OVER ERN NOVA SCOTIA. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN LCL BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IFR ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR TO VFR DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY ON MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WATERS LATER SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS GUSTY COLD WEST WINDS MOVE IN. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...DUDA/BLOOMER MARINE...DUDA/BLOOMER

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