Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251029 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 629 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE...MENTIONED A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED CURRENT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK. BY 00Z THU THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND OFF THE EASTERN BOARD ALL THE WAY NORTH TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF BOUNDARIES THAT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY TO END EARLY-MID MORNING. THE AIR MASS WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 925H TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 6C AND TO 18-22C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS WELL INTO 80S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S. TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THE WARM AIR MASS COMBINED WITH THE COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG OVER THE WATER THAT MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NW OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TURN STRONG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THU NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISLD TSTMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED. SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY TUE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. MOSTLY VFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TUE NIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR WED INTO FRI...BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO THU. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY. SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. THE COLD WATER TEMPS WILL LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. THE WARM AIR MASS WITH COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY COMBINE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES. && .FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED...THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN DRY FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...DUDA/CB MARINE...DUDA/CB FIRE WEATHER...

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