Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 171928 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 328 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A humid air mass will remain in place across the region into early next week. A frontal boundary will produce showers and thunderstorms by Monday afternoon and Monday night with the potential for very heavy rain. Cooler and less humid weather for the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A broad area of low pressure across Ontario and the Great Lakes tonight will deepen and move into western Quebec by late in the day Sunday. A moist south flow tonight will produce a lot of low clouds along with areas of fog and drizzle Downeast and at least some patchy fog and drizzle in the north. The warmer/moist air mass will keep lows mostly near 60F, but cooler along the immediate coast with the flow off the colder waters. Sunday will start with low clouds and some fog, but will give way to some sunny intervals during the late morning and afternoon, especially across the northern and western portions of the CWA. It will be much warmer with highs likely topping 80 degrees across the western zones. Onshore flow will keep it cooler along and especially right along the coast. An isolated shower is possible, but most of the day will be rain-free. It will be very muggy as dew points soar into the uncomfortable 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Synoptic pattern in the short term will consist of the region being sandwiched between a sprawling Bermuda High to the east and a deep trough across the Great Lakes. Deep and consistent tropical moisture will continue advect across the region through this period. Humid night Sunday night for interior areas, but marine layer will keep it cooler along the coast. Monday looks to be interesting day with extremely anomalous airmass across the region with PWAT values reaching close to +3 standard deviations. In addition dewpoint temps will reach 70, with warm cloud depth layers around 12000ft. Strong moisture flux will continue with a strong low level jet of 30 to 40 kts. All these ingredients will line up with an approaching pre-frontal trough across the western areas on Monday afternoon. This will lead to localized heavy rain in a line of storms that will likely develop. In addition to the extreme rainfall rates for this region of the state, small hail, and gusty winds will also be possible with the storms. Training of storms look to be possible to do unidirectional wind profile which could lead to a flash flood threat, especially over the hilly terrain areas. This threat will need to be watched over the next 24hrs with the potential for a Flash Flood Watch being issued. Frontal boundary will slowly move east during the overnight hours, with the potential for heavy rain showers and thunderstorms continuing through the night as a 500mb vort max could rotate across the region. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move further east on Tuesday, but daytime heating will be limited which will decrease the potential for stronger thunderstorms to develop, still a very moist airmass in place, but flood threat will be limited compared to Monday and Monday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Cooler and slightly less humid weather is expected by mid-week. Pattern will become progressive with numerous 500mb shortwave troughs progged to swing through the region in the extended. Some difference in timing of the waves and strength, but good chance for afternoon showers to develop almost every afternoon at this time. Best way to summarize the remainder of the week will be periods of rain during the afternoon, with westerly offshore winds. Overall, much better weather for coastal Maine with no fog and much lower humidity for interior sections. Seasonal temperatures expected.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR early this evening will lower to IFR and even LIFR from KBGR north to KFVE later this evening and will continue to into Sunday morning before conditions improve to MVFR and possibly VFR by Sunday afternoon from KHUL north to KFVE. LIFR expected tonight into Sunday morning at KBHB with improvement to low end MVFR during the afternoon. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions are expected to continue at KBHB Monday into Tuesday morning with a strong marine layer in place. Same is most likely for KBGR, but ceilings could rise to MVFR conditions during the afternoon hours on Monday under heating. Northern TAF sites could break out of the low stratus deck by midday on Monday, with storms possible by late afternoon and early evening. Showers and isolated thunderstorms with heavy rain possible Monday night through Tuesday. Drier weather is expected by Wednesday as the cold front swings through.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Areas of fog are expected with locally very poor visibility over the waters as a warm/moist air mass gets transported across the cold ocean waters. South flow will increase over the waters Sunday and a small craft advisory has been issued starting at 5 PM/21Z Sunday. SHORT TERM: Strong southwest flow expected over the waters Monday into Tuesday. Fog will be the norm across the waters with a building swell due to a prolonged southwest wind fetch across the waters. SCA conditions are expected with waves getting up to 8 feet during the day on Monday. A cold front will push off the waters on Tuesday bringing the chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for Anz050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Dumont Long Term...Dumont Aviation...CB/Dumont Marine...CB/Dumont

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