Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 111945 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 245 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will crest over the area tonight and Sunday then move east of the region Sunday night. A weak wave of low pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast will pass well south of the area Monday into Monday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Cold and very dry air will linger across the region tonight and Sunday as high pressure builds across the region. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave currently crossing northern MN will trek eastward overnight, and across the Pine Tree State on Sunday. The main focus for tonight will be cloud cover; mid and high level moisture will increase overnight and Sunday ahead of the aforementioned shortwave, resulting in thickening clouds. There is very dry air at the surface - dewpoints are in the single digits - and with high pressure building in and a weakening pressure gradient, would normally expect optimal radiational cooling tonight. However, the incoming clouds will limit cooling, making the temperature forecast for tonight a bit tricky. Have stayed close to the previous forecast, below much of the guidance, since temperatures should have several hours before the leading edge of any significant cloud cover arrives. This gives lows in the single digits across the north and 10-15 in the south. However, earlier increasing clouds would mean warmer temps, while a later increase in cloud cover would allow for colder temps. Subsequent shift will have to watch this closely and make adjustments as necessary. For Sunday...the aforementioned shortwave will cross the region, bringing plentiful clouds. Given the dry air at low levels, though, no precipitation is expected from this feature. Highs will range form the lower and mid 30s north to around 40 Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure across the area will bring another mostly clear, tranquil and cold night Sunday night with lows generally in the teens across the area. Some high clouds may begin to drift across Downeast areas from a weak shortwave approaching the Mid-Atlantic region. A weak low sliding off the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday into Monday night will brush the Downeast coast with clouds and possibly some very slight spotty rain which could mix with light wet snow at the start. The system will move away to the east Monday night as high pressure pushes down from the north. This will bring a seasonably cold and dry day on Tuesday with partial sunshine.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Another weak low will slide to our south off the Mid-Atlantic states on Wednesday as a strong blocking high sets up over Eastern Canada. This could bring some light spotty precipitation Downeast. Otherwise, dry weather should persist through mid-week. A trough of low pressure and cold front will move through on Thursday with some showers likely with the frontal passage. Cold high pressure pushing into Quebec will bring chilly gusty winds and colder weather Friday. Winds should quickly subside late in the day Friday as the high ridges over the region. Our focus next weekend then turns to a potentially significant storm system featuring one low in the Great Lakes with a secondary low forming over southern New England. This has the potential to bring significant snow and wind to parts of the area. Snow would likely quickly change over to rain Downeast, but could continue as snow for a longer period over the north where accumulations are possible on Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday. Mid and high clouds will increase late tonight and Sunday, but no precipitation is expected. Therefore, there will be no visibility restrictions nor low ceilings. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are likely Sunday night through Wednesday with conditions possibly dropping to MVFR briefly Downeast Monday evening and again early Wednesday morning.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: The Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. Winds are currently around 15 kt with gusts around 20 kt, and they will continue to drop through the evening as high pressure builds over the waters. Seas will subside as well. SHORT TERM: A few winds gusts out of the northeast may approach 25 kt across the o ffshore waters Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to be below SCA through Wednesday.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Hastings Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Hastings/Bloomer Marine...Hastings/Bloomer

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