Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 220418 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1218 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATE: CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH WESTERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY DRAWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH...TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S INTERIOR DOWNEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO START TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THE NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS MAINE. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS MAINE. MEANWHILE...A NEW LOW FORMS IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE NEW LOW TO QUICKLY DEEPEN. PRECIPITATION COULD BE FAIRLY HEAVY WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RUNNING LONGITUDINALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO A CLOSED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY AS A MINIMUM. OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE PROPORTIONAL TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. RIVERS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH WITH SNOW MELT AND THERE IS MUCH MORE SNOW TO BE MELTED. UNFORTUNATELY...THE HIGHEST RISK OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK REMAINS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND RATHER THAN ANY PARTICULAR DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS CUT-OFF LOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING FOR FRIDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 IN THE NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES IN AND LOOKS TO PARK ITSELF OVER THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIP FOR EACH DAY ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS LEAD TIME, EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE TO FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS AS EACH DAY WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING DOWNEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION. MVFR/IFR IMPROVES TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BY SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TUESDAY. SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THESE CONDITIONS DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT AND ALREADY ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS WILL CREATE RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS BY WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS AVIATION...DUDA/MCW MARINE...DUDA/MCW HYDROLOGY...

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