Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 200131 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 931 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A moist airmass will remain across the region tonight with areas of fog once again developing. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday followed by drier and cooler air by mid week. Even cooler air is expected for the first full weekend of Autumn. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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9:20 PM Update...No major changes were made this update. Did tweak initial POPs and temps based on current conditions and trends. Left POPs after midnight unchanged, as it seems like isolated light shower activity could continue for much of the night, as noted in the previous update. The very moist low levels have brought low stratus across the entire CWA, and all TAF sites currently have IFR CIGs. Fog also seems likely to develop across parts of the CWA given the moist low levels and light SE-S`ly flow. Most TAF sites have already been reporting occasional lower visibilities, but only Bar Harbor has reported consistent fog. Dense Fog Advisory currently in place for coastal Downeast, but will need to monitor closely for a need to expand that. Previous discussion... A moist airmass will remain in place across the region tonight as high pressure anchored off the western atlantic keeps a light southerly flow across the region. Expect stratus and areas of fog to once again develop overnight. Fog may become dense in spots again tonight and will have to monitor for the potential of needing a dense fog advisory late tonight. It will be another mild and muggy night. Lows will once again only bottom out around 60 degrees in most areas with a few upper 50s possible across the north. Tuesday will begin with low stratus and areas fog across the area but low clouds should then begin to mix out in advance of an approaching cold front from the west by mid morning. The front will cross the region later Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers are possible with the front, mainly north of the Katahdin region. As referenced by the the mid crew last night, the nam looks to be overdoing its cape forecast, thus leaned with the much more stable gfs. As such, decided against mentioning any thunder with the front on Tuesday. Despite the abundant shear profile, lapse rates not all that impressive. Also, dry air entrainment from aloft may also help to mitigate any development. That being said, couldn`t rule out a brief gusty shower with the front across the north. Highs on Tuesday will range from the low to mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upr lvl wave currently lifting north of the Great Lks into Ontario wl continuing heading northeast twd Newfoundland at the start of the short term. At the sfc a weakening front wl be acrs the CWA by 00z Wed with vry minimal in the way of showers expected. Wed wl be a pleasant fall day with main storm track rmng to the north and zonal H5 flow acrs the CWA, featuring sunny skies and contd abv normal temperatures. High pressure wl build out of Canada during the day Thur with nw flow supplying lower H8 temps thru the end of the pd. Maxes for the day wl be 3-8 degrees cooler than Wed and more normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Sfc ridge axis progged by med range guidance to rmn in place by the start of the extndd pd. What affect this has on low riding along stalled frontal bndry rmns to be seen as latest 12z guidance brings low acrs Downeast zones at some point drg the day on Fri. EC is quickest with wv with GFS being slowest and GEM the compromise. Hv gone with Superblend for pops which holds showers in acrs the south thru Sat mrng. One thing looks for certain, with this low exiting twd the Maritimes an airmass change wl be taking place ovr the weekend. All guidance indicating H8 temps drop to nr 0c on Sat and blo 0c for Sun. Chilly nw flow continues thru the end of the long term. Hv lowered maxes ovr the weekend fm prior fcst by svrl degrees. Coldest day wl lkly be Sunday with highs in the l50s acrs the north to m50s ovr the south. With upr trof still expected to swing thru Sat night, isold showers rmn possible Sun mrng and with temps expected to drop into the lwr 30s ovr far nw Aroostook cannot rule out a brief pd of snow mixing in with showers. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are once again expected to develop tonight in low clouds and areas of fog. IFR/LIFR can be expected early Tuesday morning in lower clouds and areas of fog before improving to VFR Tuesday afternoon. SHORT TERM: IFR expected at southern terminals Wed afternoon. Remaining terminals should be VFR with BGR possibly improving to VFR late in the afternoon. Might see IFR restrictions lingering at BHB into the overnight hours but confidence is very low. VFR expected through Thursday before conditions lower to MVFR and eventually IFR on Friday morning as system moves across the state. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Wind/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels through Tuesday. Visibility will be reduced to 1 NM or less in areas of fog tonight into Tuesday afternoon. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through the period. Southerly swell on Friday does not appear that it will approach 5 feet at this time. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.
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