Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 162041 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 341 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A TOUGH FORECAST UPCOMING FOR A WINTER EVENT. THIS EVENT WILL BE DRAWN OUT OVER 36 HR GOING INTO THURSDAY W/2 WAVES OF PRECIP. LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND TRACKS NE. WAA ALOFT IS UNDERWAY ATTM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S. FURTHER N. TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO WARM THANKS IN PART TO SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING W/HIGH PRES TO THE NE. THIS WILL PLAY TO HOW THINGS SETUP OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAD BROKEN EARLY TODAY W/SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THE MOST PROMINENT AND SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP WILL SET UP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING QUITE WELL W/ITS TEMPERATURES IN THE BLYR AND SYNOPTIC SETUP W/KEEPING COLDER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH W/THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND COAST, LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET GOING TO PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN TO JUST RAIN BY LATE NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 30S. ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS, FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP WILL HANG ON RIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY W/WAA EXPECTED TO REACH THE HOULTON-MILLINOCKET REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/RAIN. ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES, FROM CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE, MIXED SNOW/SLEET GOING TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET INTO MID AFTERNOON W/SOME SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION. AS THE LOW TRAVELS ACROSS THE COAST OF MAINE TOWARD THE BAY OF FUNDY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, CAA WILL WRAP BACK IN TO ALLOW PRECIP TO GO TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET W/SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 INCHES BY EARLY EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE TRICKY AS SLEET TRANSITION COULD BE QUICKER CUTTING DOWN ON THE ICING. ATTM, ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 0.10-0.20 ACROSS THE PRESQUE ISLE- HOULTON-SHERMAN AREA. THEREFORE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE HOULTON-MILLINOCKET AND GREENVILLE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ICING POTENTIAL. ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS FROM CARIBOU- PRESQUE ISLE NORTH TO THE ST. JOHN VALLEY, THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR A COMBINATION OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 6-10 INCHES AND LIGHT ICING. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SUCH AS THE LINCOLN AND DOVER-FOXCROFT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS ANY PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME ICING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS LOW ATTM. THE MIDNIGHT CREW CAN ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL FURTHER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND BECOME THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FILLS. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND COLD AIR REMAINS NEAR THE SURFACE. AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW FILLS AND THE GULF OF MAINE LOW BECOMES THE PRIMARY SYSTEM EXPECT THE WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS TO BE CUT OFF AND COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE W/MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING THEN END LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY AS RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED THE PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO INITIALIZE GRIDS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR LIFTING TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND THEN A RETURN BACK TO IFR FOR ALL THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME ICING POTENTIAL IS THERE ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL START PICKING UP ON WEDNESDAY W/SEAS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. A 40 KT LLVL JET FROM SSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CROSSING OF THE WINDS IS THERE AS SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE ENE. SOME GUST POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR UP TO 30 KTS ESPECIALLY OUT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/A SCA FOR WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND SEAS APCHG 6 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS SOUTHEASTERLY WAVES DEVELOPING IN FETCH AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE THEN TRANSITION TO OFF-SHORE WIND WAVES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ003>006-010. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE

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