Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 232234 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 634 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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615 PM UPDATE: HI TRRN MAX/MINS...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE OVRNGT...SKY CVR...AND POPS TNGT INTO SUN WERE ALL MODIFIED SOMEWHAT THIS UPDATE. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLD CVR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM LAGGING BEHIND WHAT THE 18Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS...SO WE DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF CLD CVR AND AND ASSOCIATED SHWRS ABOUT 2 TO 3 HRS. WITH WINDS SLATED TO DIMINISH AND SFC RHS TO INCREASE AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVE HRS...WE OPTED TO CANX THE REMAINING PTN OF THE RED FLAG WRNG ABOUT 2 HRS ERLY. ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600. THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35 MPH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA. ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS. SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER

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