Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 182317 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 617 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will approach from northern Quebec this evening and track just north of the area tonight. A cold front will cross the region later Sunday. High pressure will build across the region later Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 6:20 PM Update...A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor satellite pictures across western Quebec early this evening with a sfc low to track across the Saint John Valley overnight. As the low moves east of the area a cold front will slip south into northern Maine Sunday afternoon, and will push off the Downeast coast Sun eve. Snow showers have moved east of the CWA early this evening. A warm front will lift across the area tonight with lower clouds and the chance of a few snow showers across the western mountains and far northern Maine. As the day shift pointed out there is the potential for some spotty freezing drizzle north of KMLT, but confidence in freezing drizzle remains low. The main update was to lower the Pops during the 00-03Z time frame based on the latest radar and near term model trends. Previous discussion... The warm frontal passage tonight brings a concern about patchy freezing drizzle north of Millinocket and Houlton. Forecast soundings show increasing moisture under H8 this evening with the warm front and temperatures in the moist layer well above -10C. No accumulating ice is forecast and will not issue any advisories. Temperatures will tend to remain steady or even warm up through the night. With morning readings in the lower 30s, temperatures will be able to climb into the mid 30s towards northern Aroostook and mid 40s for the Bangor area. This will be the warmest day of the month so far. As the low moves into the Canadian Maritimes, there won`t be much time in the warm sector for northern Aroostook as a cold front will start pushing southward across the state in the morning and reach the coast by evening. Good convergence along the front, a shortwave aloft, and low level instability will generate some pretty good shower activity on Sunday. It appears that the stronger showers will set up from northern Piscataquis County towards southern Aroostook by midday and sink southeastward later in the afternoon. Although temperatures will be above freezing, the shallow boundary layer warmth should mean any heavier showers with the front will transition to snow. Depending on exactly how the upper level shortwave and cold front line up in the afternoon, it`s possible that a few locations could pick up a quick inch of snow as the front moves through. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper level trof will cross the region Sunday night with mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers across the north and mountains. Mostly/partly cloudy skies are expected across the remainder of the region early Sunday night, with decreasing clouds overnight. High pressure will build toward the region Monday with decreasing clouds across northern areas, with partly/mostly sunny skies across the remainder of the forecast area. High pressure then crosses the forecast area Monday night/Tuesday with mostly clear skies. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly above normal, levels Monday/Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... An occluded front will move east across the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday. Expect increasing clouds early Tuesday night, with a chance of light snow later Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Timing differences then develop regarding another low moving east from the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday. Uncertainty exists regarding whether the low crosses the region Wednesday night into Thursday or later Thursday into Thursday night. The low should bring light snow or snow/rain showers to northern areas, with light rain/snow or snow/rain showers across the remainder of the region. A more significant low will intensify across the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. The exact timing and track of the low Friday into Saturday is also uncertain which will impact how rapidly precipitation is able to expand across the region. The low should track northwest of the region Saturday into Sunday though whether the track is closer to the Saint Lawrence River Valley or more westward across western Quebec province is still to be determined. Either track would draw warmer air northward across the region. Expect snow to transition to a snow/rain mix across northern areas, with a snow/rain mix transitioning to mostly rain across the remainder of the region. Precipitation amounts will be dependent on the eventual track of the low. Temperatures are expected to be at above normal levels Wednesday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will gradually deteriorate to MVFR and potentially IFR cigs later this evening north of HUL. There will be patchy freezing drizzle tonight north of MLT and HUL...mostly late evening. The IFR cigs will go away after a warm crosses late tonight. After the warm frontal passage, the prevailing condition will be MVFR cigs with scattered snow showers...mostly for GNR, MLT and HUL by late afternoon with a cold front. SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north/mountains Sunday night. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across the region Sunday night into Tuesday. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Tuesday night into early Wednesday, with VFR/MVFR conditions later Wednesday. Occasional MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Thursday dependent on the timing of low pressure moving east across the region. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind is increasing and approaching 25 knots early this evening on the coastal waters, and expect some SCA- level wind gusts to develop this evening. The end time for the posted SCA looks good for early Sunday morning...but wind gusts will likely still remain above 20 kts with seas near 5 ft in a south swell. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level conditions are expected Sunday night into Monday night, with conditions below small craft advisory levels Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB/MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...CB/MCW/Norcross Marine...CB/MCW/Norcross

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