Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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580 FXUS61 KCAR 222220 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 620 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift across the region Friday, followed by a cold front Friday night into Saturday. A series of upper disturbances will cross the region through the weekend, keeping the weather unsettled. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 620 pm update... Very pleasant evening continues across all of northern and down east Maine this hour. Clouds will be on the increase late this evening in association with approaching warm front from the southwest. Current forecast is in good shape and see no reason to make any significant adjustments with this update. previous discussion The potential for heavy rain on Friday is the main concern for the near term. Low pressure is currently spinning over the Great Lakes will shift eastward across Quebec tonight and Friday. Meanwhile, the warm front that extends southeast from this low will lift north over the Northeast CONUS. Southwest flow out ahead of the Quebec low will draw moisture northward from the remnants of Tropical Depression Cindy, and this moisture will interact with the warm front to produce a swath of rain across the region. Precipitation will approach our western sections late tonight, but should begin in earnest during the mid to late morning hours on Friday. With PWATs of 1.5 to 2.0 inches and warm-cloud depths of 11-13 kft, expect we`ll see efficient rainfall processes. The highest amounts will occur across the North Woods up through the Saint John Valley, accompanying the strongest warm advection. These areas could pick up three-quarters of an inch or more through daylight hours on Friday. Have therefore continued to mention heavy rain in the forecast for these locations. Central and Downeast areas will mainly see a half inch or less, with only a tenth or so along the coast. Have also continued the chance of thunder for Friday afternoon. The amount of instability is in question owing to plentiful cloud cover, but there should be enough, especially over western areas, to allow for a few embedded thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Widespread rain, possibly with some embedded thunderstorms, will be ongoing Friday evening as a front approaches from the west, and it may be heavy up north. As the front swings through the CWA overnight into early Saturday, anticipate a shift to more showery precip, and decreasing POPs in general. Some low stratus and patchy fog is also possible before the front moves through. A weak upper-level disturbance and associated vorticity max may kick of a few showers up north Sat afternoon. A more robust shortwave may then pass through Sat night into early Sun AM, which the GFS and Canadian both show bringing a few showers to central and Downeast areas. However, for both shortwave features, kept any POPs low-end chance at best. As a broader trough approaches from the west Sunday afternoon and evening, a broader area of showers is possible across most of the CWA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The active upper-level pattern will keep weather fairly unsettled through the long term. A cold front expected to push through Monday morning will bring further showers to the area Sun night into Mon AM. Given the active weather pattern with multiple shortwaves, it`s not surprising that disagreements between models on timing and placement of features develops in the long term, thus POPs were generally kept under 50 percent during the period. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will persist through 12z Friday. Then MVFR conditions will become more likely, especially at the northern terminals, as an area of rain spreads across the state. The rain may be heavy at times Friday afternoon, possibly reducing visibility and dropping ceilings to IFR levels, mainly at the northern sites. SHORT TERM: Would expect IFR conditions to continue Fri night into early Sat AM in heavy rain and possible patchy fog. Improvement to MVFR and VFR then expected Sat PM into Sun, except for patchy IFR possible around any showers. Some more widespread IFR conditions possible Sun night into Mon AM, and again during the day Tue, in scattered shower activity. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for late Friday afternoon through Friday night. Winds and seas will both build through the day as a warm front lifts across the waters. Gusts to 25 kt and seas of 3-6 feet are expected by Friday evening. SHORT TERM: Winds will continue to gust to near 25kts Fri night, and seas will build to 4-7ft overnight into Sat AM, thus the SCA was continued into Sat AM. Winds and seas are both expected to decrease Sat PM, and seas will continue to decrease into Sun as winds remain offshore. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Duda/Hastings Short Term...Kredensor Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...Duda/Hastings/Kredensor Marine...Duda/Hastings/Kredensor

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