Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 020232 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1032 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY STALL OUT ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1030 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ON THURSDAY. THE RAP SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY W/MUCAPES APCHG 300-400 JOULES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA W/THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. 0-6KM SHEAR 30+ KTS W/700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT W/A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE. DECIDED TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CARRIED FOG FOR EVERYWHERE ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST AND THE COAST WHERE VSBYS ARE ALREADY AOB 1 MILE. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... DRY AND WARM HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION FRI MAKING FOR A NICE DAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTH...BUT EVEN ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE IT SHOULD BE A P/SUNNY DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DOWN EAST. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE M/U 70S INLAND...BUT A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW/SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST KEEPING TEMPS COOLER AT THE SHORELINE. HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ON THE 4TH AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. A LATE DAY OR EVENING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW AREAS...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPS THAT MAY TOP 80 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR DOWN EAST MAINE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND MAY STALL OUT ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE SUN. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE DAY SUN ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS. THE FRONT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON DOWN EAST. HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION MON AND TUE WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WED WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR/VFR AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES TO AS LOW AS IFR/LIFR IN LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG AT KBGR AND KBHB. VFR THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT EVE. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN SHOWERS. VFR MON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG THIS EVENING ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .CLIMATE... THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR ENDED AS THE COLDEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND TIED FOR THE 7TH COLDEST AT CARIBOU. JUNE WAS A COOL MONTH AND RANKED AS THE 5TH COOLEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND 12TH COOLEST AT CARIBOU. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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