Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 232000 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 400 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A COLD CLEAR NIGHT. COOL AND BRISK ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL DOWNEAST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A DRY CANADIAN CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS PUSHES INTO MAINE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY DROP TONIGHT...AS CLEAR SKIES COMBINE WITH THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST AREAS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE A NICE DAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL FEEL QUITE BRISK FOR THE LATER HALF OF APRIL. VERY COOL ALOFT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -8C. THE STRONG APRIL SUN WILL HAVE TO WORK HARD TO WARM UP THE REGION UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. DEEP MIXING UP TO 800MB WILL TAP INTO SOME WINDS SO WILL BE WINDY TOMORROW WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO 30 MPH. WON`T TAKE US LONG TO MIX OUT...MAYBE AROUND 9 THE GUSTS SHOULD START TO KICK UP.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SFC HIPRES WL BE BUILDING IN ON SUN WITH SUNNY SKIES ACRS THE REGION BFR WK FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATE IN THE AFTN. LATEST BUFKIT SNDGS SHOWING AN EXTRMLY DRY AIRMASS DRG THE DAY AND HV SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT MOS DWPT VALUES IN THE AFTN. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FM THE M40S ACRS THE NORTH TO LOW 50S IN THE SOUTH. FRONTAL BNDRY DROPS THRU SUN NIGHT WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG IT, IF THAT. BLYR RMNS EXTREMELY DRY SO HV GONE WITH LESS THAN 10 POPS DRG THE OVRNGT. WEAK CLD ADVECTION WL OCCUR THRU MON MRNG WITH MINS JUST SLIGHTLY CLDR THAN SUN MRNG. WV NOW WORKING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WL EJECT EAST THRU THE PD. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WL STALL OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST MON MRNG WITH WV RIDING ALONG BNDRY. MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CHC FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST MON NGT AND HV CAPPED POPS AT LOCHC ACRS COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON THRU 12Z TUE. LATEST 00Z NAM APPEARS MORE REASONABLE THAN RMNG MED RANGE GUIDANCE GIVEN HOW DRY AIRMASS HAS BEEN LATELY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... EXTNDD PD WL FEATURE QUIET AND DRY WX THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. UPR LOW WL CUTOFF OVR THE WEEKEND AND RMN PARKED OVR ERN CANADA THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM PER EURO. SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH LATEST GFS AS LOW KICKS OUT BY THUR. 00Z EURO SUGGESTING MINIMAL POPS THRU THE LONG TERM WHILE GFS BRINGS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IN FOR FRI. HV GONE WITH SUPERBLEND POPS SHOWING ISOLD AND LOCHC POPS ACRS CWA LATE IN THE PD. TEMPS LOOK TO MODERATE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEEKS END. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TOMORROW. IT WILL BE GUSTY THOUGH OUT THE NORTHWEST WHICH COULD MAKE IT CHOPPY FOR GENERAL AVIATION. SHORT TERM: TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM:HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND. WIND SPEEDS COULD GET UP TO 20 KTS...BUT FEEL WITH STAY JUST BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING DID NOT BRING A WETTING RAIN TO MANY LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS COASTAL DOWNEAST WHERE MOST AREAS RECEIVED .10" OR GREATER. NOT THE CASE FURTHER INLAND WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING A TRACE TO .05". ANOTHER DRY AND BLUSTERY DAY ON TAP WITH A VERY COOL/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PUSHING INTO THE STATE ONCE AGAIN. COORDINATED WITH THE MFS ON A RFW WATCH FOR SUNDAY. DECISION WAS BASED OFF THE AREAS THAT DIDN`T RECEIVE WETTING RAINS...SNOW COVER AND EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. NIGHT SHIFT WILL EVALUATE IF A WARNING IS NEEDED OR NOT BASED OFF LATEST GUIDANCE.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MEZ002-005-006-010-011-015>017-031-032. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DUMONT SHORT TERM...KREDENSOR LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...DUMONT/KREDENSOR MARINE...DUMONT/KREDENSOR FIRE WEATHER...

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