Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181146 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 646 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moving to the south of the state this morning will bring light snow to the area into the mid morning hours. High pressure builds in tonight. A warm front will lift north of the region Monday then sink back south and stall Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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645 am update... Sfc low currently south of Nova Scotia as of 11z. Inverted trof set up shop 2 hours earlier than anticipated with most of the activity acrs the border in GYX`s area but hv gotten reports of 3-4 inches just to the east of srn Penobscot and Hancock, thus hv opted to upgrade to winter wx advisories for these zones thru 15z. Another band of snow currently mvg along the I-95 corridor in conjunction with strong vort max zipping into Maine. This band is dumping approx 1 in/hr amnts. Expect this wl be out of the CWA in the next 1-2 hrs and therefore only expecting a total of 2-4 inches either side of a line from Medway to Houlton. Hv covered this snowband with a special wx statement thru 1330z this mrng. Only minor tweaks to rmndr of fcst with this update. Prev discussion blo... Sfc low is south of Cape Cod as of 08z and heading ene with time drg the ovrngt hrs. Snow has blossomed ovr most of New England with srn areas for the past 2-3 hrs. Expect this wl continue to expand with time and eventually move into nrn zones in the next hour or two. Snow wl lkly be vry brief acrs the north with only arnd 1 inch expected to fall thru the early morning. Srn zones wl lkly see snow blossom along inverted trof fm now thru 12z with heaviest axis shifting thru the mrng. This wl be assoc with left exit region of upr lvl jet streak as it conts to dive south arnd base of s/wv trof zipping thru Great Lks at this time. Hires models continue to advertise enhanced snowfall occurring mainly ovr Washington County as trof clrs the state btwn 15z-18z. Hv bumped total snow amnts up just a tad mainly to the north of Penobscot Bay up thru the Dover-Foxcroft area. May see around 3-4 inches in these locations. Wl continue with winter wx advisory for coastal Hancock but wl not make any chgs to headlines at this time.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will exit to the east Monday while a warm front lifts north of the region. Mostly cloudy/partly sunny skies are expected across northern areas Monday, with mostly/partly sunny skies Downeast. High pressure builds north of Maine Monday night which will allow the frontal boundary to sink back across the forecast area and stall, though where the front stalls is still uncertain. A disturbance will cross the region Monday night with an area of precipitation. South of the frontal boundary expect precipitation in the form of rain, with snow or a wintry mix in the colder air north of the front. The front remains stalled across the forecast area Tuesday. Precipitation will remain in the form of rain south of the front. To the north of the front, expect snow or a wintry mix in the morning possibly changing to rain during the afternoon. Low pressure tracks northwest of the region Tuesday night drawing the boundary back north in the form of a warm front. Generally expect rain across the forecast area Tuesday night, though a wintry mix is possible early across northern areas. Fog is also expected across the forecast area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Monday/Tuesday though temperatures will be dependent on the location of the front. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The low tracks north of Maine Wednesday, drawing a cold front across the region later Wednesday. Rain showers are expected in advance of the front Wednesday. Rain showers will end Downeast in the wake of the cold front Wednesday night, with rain showers tapering to snow showers across the north and mountains. High pressure then builds across the region Thursday into Friday. Uncertainty exists Friday night into Saturday regarding the timing of possible low pressure. Temperatures will be at much above normal levels Wednesday. Temperatures Thursday through Saturday will be at near normal, to slightly above normal, levels. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR across all terminals next 2 hours as -sn exits to the east. BGR and BHB will see LIFR conditions for the next hour or two before improving to IFR. Expect MVFR restrictions through bulk of the morning before improving to VFR. SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across northern areas Monday, with generally VFR conditions across the remainder of the region. MVFR to LIFR conditions will develop Monday night then persist into Tuesday. IFR/LIFR conditions are then expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday, with VFR/MVFR conditions later Wednesday. VFR conditions are expected Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Wind gusts remain just below SCA levels this morning before dropping further through tonight. Seas will remain around 3-4 feet through the end of the period. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected Monday through Tuesday night. Visibilities will be reduced in rain and fog Monday night into Tuesday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MEZ015-016-029. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Farrar/Norcross Marine...Farrar/Norcross

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