Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 040257
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
957 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016
High pressure will build across the region late tonight through
Sunday. A weak trough of low pressure will cross the region Monday
into Monday night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --935 PM Update: Latest radar ref imagery shows that most sn shwr
activity that was ovr E Cntrl ptns of the region has diminished.
In fact...initially skies became ptly cldy as far N as Caribou,
but bkn-ovc SC has filled back in from the St Lawrence seaway.
Latest HRRR sim model radar ref does not show much in the way of
additional sn shwr activity for the ovrngt, but does hint at lgt
St Lawrence seaway sn streamers, particularly for the NW where we
keep a mention of low chc sn shwr PoPs. Elsewhere across the N, we
keep a mention of isold sn shwrs. Any sn amounts from narrow sn
streamer bands should be lgt in the order of a half inch or less,
with most lctns receiving a dusting or less. Over E Cntrl and
Downeast ptns of the region, enough llvl drying with downslope NW
winds has allowed for some clrg, where we xpct to hold thru the
Otherwise, fcst hrly temps and dwpts have been updated based on
trends seen in latest mid eve sfc obs. At one point, we thought we
needed to lower fcst ovrngt lows, but with additional low SC cld
cvr movg back into Nrn ptns of the region, temps have acutually
rebounded by a deg or two F ovr the last hr or two. Lastly, we
made adjustments to hi trrn temps and winds for the ovrngt into
Orgnl Disc: An upper level disturbance will move east of the
region tonight, with surface high pressure starting to build
toward the region late. Skies will remain mostly cloudy across the
forecast area tonight. Scattered snow showers will occur across
the north and mountains early tonight, with isolated snow showers
late. Isolated to scattered snow showers will occur across the
Bangor and Downeast areas early tonight. Any snow accumulations
tonight are expected to be less than an inch. High pressure builds
across the region Sunday. Mostly cloudy skies along with isolated
snow showers are expected across the north and mountains early
Sunday, with decreasing clouds during the afternoon. Across the
remainder of the forecast area expect partly/mostly cloudy skies
early Sunday with decreasing clouds during the afternoon. Low
temperatures tonight will range from around 20 to the lower 20s
north, to the mid to upper 20s Downeast. High temperatures Sunday
will range from the mid to upper 20s north, to the mid 30s
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Much colder weather is on the way for our new week. High pressure
cresting over the area Sunday night will bring clear and calm
conditions resulting in the coldest night so far this season.
Temperatures will range from the single digits north to the mid
20s Downeast. A very weak trough of low pressure will then
approach on Monday bringing a mostly cloudy sky and just a slight
chance for some snow showers Downeast. High pressure will return
on Tuesday with sunny and cold conditions followed by a clear to
partly cloudy and very cold night Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak trough crossing the area on Wednesday will bring some
clouds, but will likely be too weak for anything more than
flurries. A more vigorous trough of low pressure will approach
Wednesday night thickening clouds across the area and bringing a
chance of light snow by Thursday morning. Forecast guidance has
been quite variable on the outlook for Thursday with the latest
GFS now forming a strong low in the Gulf of Maine on Thursday and
spreading significant snow across the central and northern part of
the region Thursday into Thursday night with rain Downeast. The
new ECMWF, however, has a much more open trough and produces a
weak system suggesting only light snow late Thursday into Thursday
night. Either way, Cold air and breezy conditions will follow
through the end of the week Friday into Saturday. With many of
the lakes and rivers still open and releasing water vapor into the
air, the chances for flurries and snow showers will likely persist
following the system through at least Saturday. High pressure
should return to the area on Sunday.
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are expected across the
north and mountains tonight, with local IFR conditions also
possible early. Occasional MVFR conditions are expected across the
Bangor and Downeast regions early tonight, with VFR conditions
developing overnight. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible
across the north and mountains though early Sunday afternoon, with
VFR conditions later Sunday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected
across the the Bangor and Downeast regions Sunday.
SHORT TERM: VFR conditions in high pressure are expected Sunday
night into Monday. Conditions may lower to MVFR Downeast Monday
afternoon. Generally VFR conditions are expected in high pressure
Monday night through Tuesday night. VFR to MVFR conditions are
likely on Wednesday, with MVFR/IFR conditions possible Thursday.
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for much of the
waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters, tonight
through Sunday afternoon. However, the intracoastal waters might
need to be included in the Small Craft Advisory.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA Sunday night
through Wednesday night. An SCA or Gale is possible late Thursday
or Thursday night depending on the development of a coastal low
late in the week.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051.