Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251436 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1036 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHERN AREAS. WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPECT THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND TO GENERALLY BE DRY. HOWEVER, A WEAK NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, DRAGGING AN OCCLUDED FRONT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY, THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL FALL. GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY AROUND (CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE 300-900 J/KG) SO INTRODUCED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR SATURDAY AS HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS OWING TO SOME SUNSHINE. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL A BIT MUGGY AS MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SET UP RESIDENCE ACROSS QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AND CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE FEATURES ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO TIME, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THOUGH A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: EXPECT TO START OUT VFR AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD SUNDAY, ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF RAIN LOOK LIKELY RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, SO EXPECT MVFR TO PREVAIL. LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 25 KT, SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE ANY HEADLINES WOULD NEED TO BE FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ONLY.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...NORCROSS/HASTINGS MARINE...NORCROSS/HASTINGS

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