Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241315 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 915 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE 9:05 AM: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERAURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... VERY DRY AND COOL AIR IS THE STORY FOR TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND GUSTY NW WINDS. EVEN WITH GOOD HEATING...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH. THE DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL GENERATE SOME GUSTS THAT WILL REACH 30 MPH. THE WINDS WILL START WITH THE FIRST HEATING OF THE DAY. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX...THE MIXED LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND HELP SUSTAIN WINDS. THE COLD FRONT CROSSING TONIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT WILL FEATURE A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND TEND TO FALL APART BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WEAK SFC BNDRY WL WORK THRU THE REGION ON MON BUT WL HV NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS DRY CANADIAN HIPRES BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF JAMES BAY. EXPECT NRN ZONES TO SEE MOCLDY SKIES DRG THE MRNG HRS BFR GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE AFT 18Z. CLDS WL KEEP TEMPS IN THE L/M 40S OVR THE FAR NORTH AS COMPARED TO M50S FOR DOWNEAST ZONES. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WL KEEP NW WINDS INTO AFTN. UPR LVL SYSTEM MVG THRU THE ROCKIES WL EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS BY MON MRNG AND RIDE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. EXACTLY WHAT IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WL HV ON AREA RMNS UP IN THE AIR. 00Z NAM IS NOW BRINGING QPF INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST DRG THE AFTN WHILE GFS/EC AND CMC KEEP BULK OF PCPN OFFSHORE. HV RETAINED LOCHC POPS FOR COASTAL ZONES TUE MRNG BUT ONLY ANTICIPATING 0.10 INCHES OF LIQUID QPF AT MOST. THIS MAY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT AND MAY END UP WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW ON GRASSY SFCS BY MRNG. EXPECT NRN ZONES TO DIP INTO THE TEENS MON NIGHT UNDER MOCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS. TEMPS WL QUICKLY REBOUND ON TUE UNDER MOSUNNY CONDS ACRS THE NORTH THO EXPECT MAXES TO RMN BLO NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SYSTEM MVS OUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WITH CWA BEING INFLUENCED BY CUTOFF LOW OVR NEWFOUNDLAND CONTINUALLY SUPPLYING NW FLOW. UPR TROFFINESS WL RMN THRU NEXT WEEKEND BUT TEMPS WL MODIFY TO ARND NORMAL BY THE END OF THE EXTNDD PD. MAY OCCASIONALLY SEE CLDS AND SLGT CHCS FOR PCPN IN NW FLOW BUT VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PCPN FOR THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: NO CIGS AND EXCELLENT VIS TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW WINDS REACHING 30 MPH. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS FVE AND CAR TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY. SHORT TERM: VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL MAINTAIN THE MARGINAL SCA INTO THIS MORNING. BUOYS HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED GUSTS CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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UPDATE 9:05 AM: HAVE ADDED COASTAL ZONES TO RED FLAG WARNING. WILL CONVERT THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE SAME ZONES IN A VERY EASY CALL. THE NW ZONES ARE EXCLUDED DUE TO SNOW COVER...OR SNOW COVER UNTIL RECENT DAYS. THE COASTAL ZONES MAY WARRANT ANOTHER LOOK DURING THE MORNING...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO EXCLUDE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE WETTING RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE RH VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DEEP MIXED LAYER THAT WILL TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE MIXING WILL GENERATE GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL REACH 30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN IDEAL...THIS HAS NOT PRECLUDED THE FIRE ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS WITH THE FREEZE- DRIED FINE FUELS AND LACK OF RAIN. COORDINATION WITH MAINE FOREST SERVICE ON THIS EVENT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND WILL TOUCH BASE AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING. COLLABORATION WITH NWS GRAY CONFIRMED THE DECISION TO CONVERT TO THE WARNING.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-005- 006-010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050- 051.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

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