Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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706 FXUS61 KCAR 110011 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 711 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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715 PM UPDATE... SNOW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ACRS THE SRN PART OF THE STATE AND JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER INTO CWA FM THE WEST. WK SFC TROF WL BE SLIDING ACRS AREA TONIGHT AND ENUF LOW-LVL MOISTURE EXISTS TO WRING OUT LGT -SHSN AT ANY POINT DRG THE NIGHT. UPDATED HRLY T/TD VALUES BUT THEY ARE NOT FAR OFF AND NOT PLANNING ON ANY CHGS TO FCST WITH THIS UPDATE. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH LESSER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A COUPLE WEAK LOWS APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. ONE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL JUMP INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A NORLUN EVENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIO FLUFFY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING COASTAL WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE MARITIMES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE NORLUN TYPE FEATURE WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ALLAGASH TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS DOWN EAST. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND 5 TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME, CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PTYPE THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES A LOW OFF TO OUR WEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MOST OF THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS COME TO PASS, WE CAN EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO A HEAVY WINDSWEPT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK. BOTTOM LINE IS WE TOOK A MODEL BLENDED APPROACH THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTED IN KEEPING PTYPE MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SNOW AND RAIN DOWN EAST. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT ALL PLAYS OUT NEXT WEEK AND IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: GNRLY MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NEXT 24 HOURS THO AN OCNL IFR -SHSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS LGT/VRB THIS EVNG, WL BECOME LGT FM NW THE TWD 09Z THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AT NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY THEN BE MVFR TOO OCCASIONALLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON SATURDAY. IFR IN LINGERING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB, SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A LINGERING SOUTH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY AGAIN REACH SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR/NORCROSS SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER MARINE...FARRAR/NORCROSS/BLOOMER

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