Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 040257 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 957 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region late tonight through Sunday. A weak trough of low pressure will cross the region Monday into Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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935 PM Update: Latest radar ref imagery shows that most sn shwr activity that was ovr E Cntrl ptns of the region has diminished. In fact...initially skies became ptly cldy as far N as Caribou, but bkn-ovc SC has filled back in from the St Lawrence seaway. Latest HRRR sim model radar ref does not show much in the way of additional sn shwr activity for the ovrngt, but does hint at lgt St Lawrence seaway sn streamers, particularly for the NW where we keep a mention of low chc sn shwr PoPs. Elsewhere across the N, we keep a mention of isold sn shwrs. Any sn amounts from narrow sn streamer bands should be lgt in the order of a half inch or less, with most lctns receiving a dusting or less. Over E Cntrl and Downeast ptns of the region, enough llvl drying with downslope NW winds has allowed for some clrg, where we xpct to hold thru the ovrngt. Otherwise, fcst hrly temps and dwpts have been updated based on trends seen in latest mid eve sfc obs. At one point, we thought we needed to lower fcst ovrngt lows, but with additional low SC cld cvr movg back into Nrn ptns of the region, temps have acutually rebounded by a deg or two F ovr the last hr or two. Lastly, we made adjustments to hi trrn temps and winds for the ovrngt into Sun. Orgnl Disc: An upper level disturbance will move east of the region tonight, with surface high pressure starting to build toward the region late. Skies will remain mostly cloudy across the forecast area tonight. Scattered snow showers will occur across the north and mountains early tonight, with isolated snow showers late. Isolated to scattered snow showers will occur across the Bangor and Downeast areas early tonight. Any snow accumulations tonight are expected to be less than an inch. High pressure builds across the region Sunday. Mostly cloudy skies along with isolated snow showers are expected across the north and mountains early Sunday, with decreasing clouds during the afternoon. Across the remainder of the forecast area expect partly/mostly cloudy skies early Sunday with decreasing clouds during the afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 20 to the lower 20s north, to the mid to upper 20s Downeast. High temperatures Sunday will range from the mid to upper 20s north, to the mid 30s Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Much colder weather is on the way for our new week. High pressure cresting over the area Sunday night will bring clear and calm conditions resulting in the coldest night so far this season. Temperatures will range from the single digits north to the mid 20s Downeast. A very weak trough of low pressure will then approach on Monday bringing a mostly cloudy sky and just a slight chance for some snow showers Downeast. High pressure will return on Tuesday with sunny and cold conditions followed by a clear to partly cloudy and very cold night Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak trough crossing the area on Wednesday will bring some clouds, but will likely be too weak for anything more than flurries. A more vigorous trough of low pressure will approach Wednesday night thickening clouds across the area and bringing a chance of light snow by Thursday morning. Forecast guidance has been quite variable on the outlook for Thursday with the latest GFS now forming a strong low in the Gulf of Maine on Thursday and spreading significant snow across the central and northern part of the region Thursday into Thursday night with rain Downeast. The new ECMWF, however, has a much more open trough and produces a weak system suggesting only light snow late Thursday into Thursday night. Either way, Cold air and breezy conditions will follow through the end of the week Friday into Saturday. With many of the lakes and rivers still open and releasing water vapor into the air, the chances for flurries and snow showers will likely persist following the system through at least Saturday. High pressure should return to the area on Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are expected across the north and mountains tonight, with local IFR conditions also possible early. Occasional MVFR conditions are expected across the Bangor and Downeast regions early tonight, with VFR conditions developing overnight. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains though early Sunday afternoon, with VFR conditions later Sunday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected across the the Bangor and Downeast regions Sunday. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions in high pressure are expected Sunday night into Monday. Conditions may lower to MVFR Downeast Monday afternoon. Generally VFR conditions are expected in high pressure Monday night through Tuesday night. VFR to MVFR conditions are likely on Wednesday, with MVFR/IFR conditions possible Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters, tonight through Sunday afternoon. However, the intracoastal waters might need to be included in the Small Craft Advisory. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA Sunday night through Wednesday night. An SCA or Gale is possible late Thursday or Thursday night depending on the development of a coastal low late in the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/Bloomer Marine...VJN/Bloomer

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