Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 171042 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 642 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary across central ptns of the region will slowly lift north as a warm front tonight into Monday. A warm ridge of high pressure will be over the area Tuesday as hurricane Jose approaches southeast New England. Jose will turn eastward, tracking south of the Gulf of Maine on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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630 AM Update: We dropped the dense fog adv for Downeast coast with just a few lctns only ocnly reporting vsbys at or below a quarter mile. We did leave areas of fog alg the coast tapering to patchy fog late this morn ending by midday. Otherwise, N of the coast fog is much more patchy or not present at all, so where we had areas of fog we reduced to patchy fog for the next couple of hrs. Otherwise, fcst hrly temps/dwpts were updated into the aftn based on current temps and newly projected low temps. With less in the way of fog inland from the coast, we raised hi temps a deg or two thinking that breaks in low cldnss may occur sooner allowing for earlier sunshine. Orgnl Disc: Will cont with the dense fog adv alg the coast, albeit that fog as been intermittent for some lctns up to this point in time. Both fog and ST should lift ovr Downeast areas late this morn and erly aftn, resulting in ptly sunny skies. Elsewhere across the N and Cntrl, low and mid cldnss behind a stationary front will cont thru the morn before breaking up this afternoon with cldnss lingering longest ovr the NE. Isold shwrs and patchy lgt dz will cont til late morn spcly across the far N. Hi temps this aftn will be 5 to 10 deg cooler across the N and about 5 deg F cooler across Cntrl and Downeast areas than ystdy aftn...but even so..still abv avg for this tm of season. Ovrngt lows will again be mild tngt due the return of low ST cld cvr and fog from S to N across the FA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will be over the area on Monday bringing a partly sunny, warm and humid day across the area. This will be followed by a mild night Monday night. Some fog is possible again, especially Downeast. Tuesday will remain warm and humid as our focus turns to the approach of the northern edge of hurricane Jose. The day will become mostly cloudy and remain humid. Some bands of rain well north of the storm will likely begin to move north across the Downeast region Tuesday afternoon with showers possible across the north. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Hurricane Jose, which may be weakening to a tropical storm Tuesday night, is expected to move to a position a couple hundred miles southeast of Cape Cod and from there begin tracking to the east, south of the Gulf of Maine. Bands of rain north of the system will likely affect Downeast areas Tuesday night with showers further north. The storm is expected to exit to the east on Wednesday as a large high pressure system sliding down from the north pushes drier air into our region. This will bring partial clearing with a mild afternoon. Wind impacts from Jose are expected to be minimal. However, surf form the storm may build up to 10-12 ft bringing the potential for some splashover along coastal roads at the times of high tide Tuesday night into Wednesday. A strong ridge of high pressure will bring mostly sunny and warm weather Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR clgs at Nrn TAF sites and IFR clgs/vsbys with fog at Downeast sites will improve to VFR this aftn and cont so til erly eve, then lower to IFR ovrngt tngt for all of our TAF sites in ST cld cvr/fog. SHORT TERM: Conditions may begin IFR in fog, especially Downeast, early Monday morning but should improve to VFR, first up north, then Downeast on Monday. VFR conditions Monday night may lower to IFR in fog and low clouds, especially Downeast. IFR conditions Downeast in low clouds and MVFR conditions across the north are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. Conditions should improve to VFR across the area on Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No immediate hdlns attm. Long distance low ht swell will cont to radiate Nwrd toward our waters from Jose currently located well E of the N florida coast. Swell ht will only slowly build between now and tngt to 2 to 4 ft ovr the near shore/inner bay-harbor waters from 3 to 5 ft ovr the outer waters as Jose initially moves Nwrd. Wv pds will range from 11 to 14 sec. Rip current potential on area beaches will be mdt thru this ptn of the fcst. SHORT TERM: Winds are expected to remain below SCA Monday into Monday night but seas will rise to around 5 ft from swell ahead of hurricane Jose. Swell will build to around 7 ft on Tuesday and up to 10 or 12 feet on Wednesday...with the potential of coastal flooding due to wv run up at the time of high tides. Winds will likely reach SCA and possibly Gale Tuesday night into Wednesday as the storm center passes well south of the waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...None.
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