Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241003 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 603 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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555 AM UPDATE... UPDATED TO INCREASE SKY COVER FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO, GOT RID OF FOG IN NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK EXISTS. AT 6 AM, MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK EXISTS FROM HOULTON NORTH, AND IS MOVING SOUTHWEST. NO MODELS HAD A HANDLE ON THIS CLOUD DECK EARLIER TONIGHT. RAP AND NAM NOW HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE CLOUD DECK AND USED A BLEND OF THEM FOR THE DAY, WHICH MAKES FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING FROM ROUGHLY MILLINOCKET NORTHEAST. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH. THE INCREASED CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT, BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THEM AS IS FOR NOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ANOTHER QUIET DAY TODAY WITH JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST TO AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE THERE IS THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THERE IS ACTUALLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE TO WORK WITH, BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND STRONG INVERSION AROUND 700 MB, IT`S GOING TO BE TOUGH TO REALIZE MUCH CONVECTION. FELT ISOLATED SHOWERS WAS THE BEST COMPROMISE APPROACH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. WITH THE FAIRLY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSTANTIAL HEATING OF THE LAND, EXPECT A DECENT SEA BREEZE, WHICH IS RESOLVED IN THE WIND GRIDS AND TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH TEMPS FALLING LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RADIATION FOG, AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL WIND THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WHICH COULD KEEP FOG AWAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE AREA WEATHER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP TO AROUND 60F AND TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL SHOOT UP TO THE UPPER 80S WITH AN UPTICK IN HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT WILL EASE SOUTHWARD THROUGH QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TOWARDS THE ST JOHN VALLEY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEDNESDAY WILL THE DAY THAT THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE TIMING OF ITS CROSSING PRESENTS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG STORMS SOUTH OF HOULTON. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST SURFACE-BASED CAPE WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F. DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ADD MORE FUEL. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD REACH 35K TO 40K FT IF THEY CAN OVERCOME THE CAP NEAR H700. THE MOST LIKELY RISK WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HAVE ADDED GUSTY WIND ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW. FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK...THE FRONT WILL CROSS TOO EARLY IN THE DAY AND APPEARS TO MITIGATE THE SEVERE RISK. HIGHS THERE WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR BANGOR AND THE DOWN EAST REGION AND COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS REACHING AROUND 80F DOWN EAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW. FURTHER NORTH IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 70F WITH WIDESPREAD CUMULUS LIMITING SUNSHINE AND A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NW FLOW. A PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT APPEARS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW HUMIDITY. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE STATE NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE REMOVED MORNING FOG FROM TAFS WHICH HAD IT IN EITHER PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUP (KHUL, KPQI, AND KCAR), AS MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS KILLED MOST OF THE RADIATION FOG OR PREVENTED ITS FORMATION. SHORT TERM: VFR EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT FVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND OTHER TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT A SEA BREEZE UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTSIDE OF INCREASING SOUTH SWELL TOWARDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SWELL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED REACH JUST OVER 4 FT. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY HAVE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE WATER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...FOISY/MCW MARINE...FOISY/MCW

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