Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
979 FXUS61 KCAR 280345 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1145 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will intensify along the New England coast overnight, then cross the Gulf of Maine Friday. Significant snowfall is expected over especially higher elevations of northwest and central Maine mountain peaks. Precipitation moves out briefly Friday night before mostly rain showers return later Saturday into Sunday with another weaker low crossing the region. High pressure with drier conditions then builds over the region Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Update... An area of low pressure will weaken across western New England overnight while a secondary low intensifies along the New England coast and high pressure exits across the maritimes. Precipitation will expand northeast across the forecast area overnight, though retreating high pressure will slow the advance of precipitation across northeast areas. Across northern areas precipitation will be in the form of snow, with a snow/rain mix across central portions of the forecast area. Across Downeast areas expect precipitation mostly in the form of rain, though snow could mix with the rain at times. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible across mostly northern Somerset and northern/central Piscataquis counties overnight particularly across higher terrain areas. Snow accumulations across the remainder of northern Maine are expected to be an inch or less overnight. Little or no snow accumulation is expected Downeast. All Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect. Winds will also increase along the Downeast coast overnight where a Wind Advisory remains in effect. Overnight low temperatures will generally range from the upper 20s to around 30 north, with readings ranging through the 30s to around 40 Downeast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with overnight cover and precipitation chances/types. Previous Discussion... The potential of accumulating snfl decreases Fri aftn with decreasing precip rates and warming sfc-blyr temps which should allow for a transition to msly rn ovr trrn less than 2000 ft abv msl. Far Nrn areas will experience less snfl due to less fcst liquid equivalent with a the sfc ow tracking toward srn Nova Scotia, while Downeast areas experience mainly rain. Precip should then wind down to sct shwrs Fri eve and then briefly end late Fri ngt. With the sfc low intensifying ovr the Srn Gulf of Maine, ENE to NE winds will be an issue Fri ovr Downeast areas, especially alog the coast where we have issued a wind adv. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Two weak s/wvs will bring msly sct rn shwrs to the region Sat aftn and Sat eve, and to msly Downeast ptns of the FA Sun and Sun eve. Temps will be milder this pd. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mon and Tue look to be drier, and potentially more sunny barring any left ovr SC cld cvr across the N. The next chc of showers will be with a weak cold front slated to arrive Tuesday night...crossing the region by Wed morn. Temps look to be mild behind this front for Wed aftn into Thu, followed by another...stronger cold front Thu ngt. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across northern areas later tonight. Conditions will lower to MVFR/IFR levels Downeast overnight. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across northern areas Friday, with IFR/LIFR conditions Downeast. Low-level wind shear is also possible Downeast Friday. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions improve late Friday night and into Saturday but will likely return as another system approaches Saturday night and into Sunday. VFR conditions are expected Monday/Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the waters late tonight into Friday evening, with a few storm force wind gusts possible Friday morning thru midday. Winds then subside to SCA late Friday night. Visibilities will be reduced in rain overnight into Friday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas aob marginal SCA thresholds. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Friday for MEZ003-004-010. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM EDT Friday for MEZ005-006. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/VJN Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Norcross/VJN Marine...Norcross/VJN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.