Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 130704 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 304 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO QUEBEC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED TODAY AS A SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THE PRECIPITABLE H20 WHICH WAS 0.81" ON THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING LAST EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER 1.5" BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE UNCOMFORTABLE 60S. A LEAD SHORTWAVE SEEN ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS. PARTS OF DOWNEAST MAINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE A DRY DAY AS SHOWERS MAY ONLY BEGIN TO ENTER FAR WESTERN MAINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MAINE. ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/ISO T-STORMS MAY CONTAIN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TON AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND SOMEWHAT DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. TONIGHT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE PATTERN EARLY THIS WEEK IS COMPLEX WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SPOKES OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH TO BRING US SHOWERS ON OCCASION. ON MONDAY WE MAY BE IN A CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER BETWEEN A BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. SOME MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTHERN MOISTURE MAY THEN BRING US A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK CAPE INDICATING SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND LIKELY SOME FOG ALONG THE COAST WHERE HUMID AIR IS MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST BUT PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING YET ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH AND LIFTING NORTH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COAST. THIS MAY BRING SOME RAIN ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE NORTHERN AREAS REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. THE TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT LATER THURSDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN WITH SOME DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR IN PATCHY LOW STRATUS/FOG ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS PM. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TONIGHT IN PATCHY FOG. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST ARE LIKELY MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR MONDAY NIGHT IN LOWERING CLOUDS AND REMAIN IFR ON TUESDAY. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE WW3 WV GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO HIGH IN THE NEAR TERM. SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND 1 FOOT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE THE SSW FLOW INCREASES THE SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. HUMID AIR OVER THE COOLER WATERS WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER MARINE...CB/BLOOMER

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