Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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726 FXUS61 KCAR 252210 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 610 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region this evening. High pressure builds tonight into Thursday. A warm front will lift north across the area Friday and a cold front moves through Saturday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 610 pm update...A broken line of showers and thunderstorms stretches across eastern aroostook county. a couple of the storms late this afternoon likely turned severe in portions of northern and central penobscot county and east central piscataquis county. the storms have weakened over the past hour with reports of mostly pea sized hail under the heavier radar returns. The last of the storms will move east of the cwa into new brunswick by around 7:30 pm. will remove any enhanced wording with the storms after 23z with this update, and will make some tweaks to the pop/wx grids based on the latest radar trends. Previous discussion... A shortwave upper trough and associated cold front will cross the area late this afternoon into the early evening. The timing of the frontal passage coincides well with max daytime heating and destabilization. Surface-based CAPE will reach values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg ahead of the front with decent low level lapse rates and diffluence aloft.. The LFQ of an upper jet entering Maine at this time is also enhancing activity. All of this will support max CB tops to 35k ft and the potential for some heavy downpours with PWATs up to 1.5 inches and back building cells ahead of the front. Still expect a narrow sliver of dew points nearing 60F just ahead of the front. The low freezing levels...but relatively skinny CAPE could generate up to quarter-sized hail. Shear is unimpressive. An inverted V and decent lapse rates could produce locally strong wind gusts with the strongest cells as they collapse. The primary threat will be in the northern half of the forecast area. Much of Washington and Hancock counties will be affected by the stabilizing onshore flow and northward spread of fog and stratus this evening until the front passes. Precipitation will end later this evening with total QPF ranging from a half inch in northeast Aroostook County to less than a tenth of an inch for Bangor and Down East. After frontal passage, clearing will move into the western portions of the forecast area with weak cold air advection. Lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 40s north and low to mid 50s for Bangor and interior Down East. The onshore flow near the coast will lower temperatures to the upper 40s. Clouds will tend to linger along the eastern border of the state tonight into Thursday with a moist H925-H850 layer. The combination of the offshore flow...weak cold air advection and increased sunshine will lift Thursday`s highs to the upper 70s to near 80F for Bangor and the Down East region. It will be significantly warmer along the coast with the offshore flow. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1025MB sfc high will be making a last ditch effort to hold on acrs ern Maine at the start of the short term. Sfc winds veer around to the southeast arnd midnight. Wk s/wv traversing nrn periphery of upr lvl ridge wl lkly result in sfc low south of James Bay by 06z Fri. Overrunning expected late Thur night ahd of approaching wmfnt leading to showers working in fm the west aft 06z. Wmfnt wl mv thru on Fri leading to sctd showers mainly acrs nrn zones in area of maximum convergence. Skies wl lkly be mocldy which wl lead to temps near normal ovr the area in the 60s. Isold thunder possible Fri aftn/evng in area of elevated instability. Cdfnt wl lkly go thru sometime Sat mrng per GFS, EC and CMC with Nam being about 6 hrs too fast. Depending on timing of fropa may need to add in thunder for srn zones Sat aftn but models diverge by this point. Timing of cdfnt wl also play big role in max temps for Sat. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Expect mainly unsettled weather through next week. High pressure will bring a brief period of dry weather on Sunday, but there will be waves of showers and possible thunderstorms each day thereafter as shortwaves trek through the zonal flow aloft. The long range guidance differs on the handling of these waves and their associated precipitation especially timing and placement. The result is at least a slight chance of showers every day through the extended after Sunday. There may be a cold-frontal passage on Wednesday, leading to cooler temperatures, but overall the period looks to be mild with near to warmer-than-normal conditions. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Thunderstorms up to FL350 are the primary threat into this evening...mostly for HUL northward. These storms could feature hail and strong gusts. Tempo IFR conditions are possible with these storms. Chances are much less for BGR and BHB. Otherwise, the MVFR cigs will affect terminals north of HUL this evening into Thursday morning. All sites will be VFR by later tomorrow morning. SHORT TERM: VFR expected Thur afternoon and evening before lowering to MVFR in -shra. Expect occasional MVFR conditions at terminals in warm sector Fri into Sat. VFR Sat afternoon following fropa into Sunday. Restrictions expected again Mon in -shra. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Fog is the primary concern until later tonight when a cold front will pass the waters. SHORT TERM: Seas and winds will remain below SCA criteria through the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/MCW Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Hastings Aviation...CB/MCW/Farrar Marine...CB/MCW/Farrar

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