Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 290945
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
545 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT
THEN MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE REGION, STRETCHING FROM ABOUT ALLAGASH DOWN THROUGH
GREENVILLE. THERE`S STILL A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEASTERN MAINE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY
EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IT
FOR RAIN TODAY, WITH PERHAPS JUST ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE
FAR NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER, POPS
AND WEATHER TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
ALONG BEHIND. THE WORST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED INTO CANADA, AND
JUST EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING IN BEHIND IT, EFFECTIVELY BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN
END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AREA WIDE, WHILE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE WOODS
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ANTECEDENT RAINS WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEPER TROP MOISTURE TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE FA THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST. INSTEAD...S/WVS ROTATING ARND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LVL VORTEX OVR E-CNTRL CAN WILL AFFECT
MSLY WRN/NRN PTNS OF THE FA. THE FIRST...WEAK S/WV WILL BRING
ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA.

AFT A BREAK LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN...WHICH WILL FEATURE
PATCHY FOG YIELDING TO PRTL SUNSHINE...A SECOND STRONGER S/WV APCH
FROM THE WSW WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS
THU AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...AGAIN MSLY ACROSS THE W AND N...BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING FURTHER S THAN WED...PERHAPS INTO E CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA. ANY REMAINING SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THU NGT
WITH MORE PATCHY LATE NGT FOG.

FRI LOOKS TO BE PTLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BEHIND THE SECOND
S/WV. TEMPS WILL CONT WITH NEAR NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS AND AT OR JUST
ABV NORMAL AFTN HI TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATEST 00Z OPNL ECMWF MODEL RUN NOW SEEMS TO BE IN BE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLC NWRD INTO THE FA BEGINNING LATE FRI NGT AND INTO SAT AND SUN.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE IN THE WAY OF POPS FOR OUR FA COMPARED
TO WHAT WE INTRODUCED YSTDY...SPCLY FOR SAT AND SUN AFTN/EVE WHERE
DIURNAL HTG/LLVL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IS LIKELY RELATED THE
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF RETROGRESSION OF
THE WRN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE NEW ENG COAST. DESPITE A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF MSLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS...PRTL SUNSHINE IN THE
MORN SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN DISAGREE FOR MON...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER S/WV ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE IN THE DAY. BLENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS FOR SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS MON AFTN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS WHAT WE SETTLED ON FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT LCLY MVFR/IFR IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WED NGT AND THU NGT AND IN ANY TSTM/HEAVIER SHWR
OVR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS HAVE FINALLY STARTED BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FEET
THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES
OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS XPCTD TO CONT TO SUBSIDE FROM THE NEAR TERM.
WENT WITH ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WV HTS FROM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN
CLIMATE...







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