Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 152154
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
554 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds tonight. A cold front will approach from
the north on Saturday and stall over the area by Saturday
evening. This front will lift back north as a warm front across
northern Maine on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
550 PM Update...
Not much change to the current forecast except for some
tweaking of the light rain showers moving n onto the coast and
into central Hancock and Washington Counties. These showers were
shown on radar and appeared to be drying up and they pushed n
hitting much drier air. Satl imagery showed disturbance(leftover
Irma) opening up and looking more diffuse. This trend looks
like it will continue into the late evening. Stratus and fog
over the coastal waters trying edge its way onto the coast. Some
sites such as Vinalhaven and Acadia. Daycrew has a nice
assessment of bringing the stratus and fog further n into Bar
Harbor and other coastal areas overnight. Clouds streaming
across Quebec look to remain n of the border into late evening.

Updated the hrly temps/dewpoint to reflect the latest
conditions.

Daycrew collaborated w/the USCG on Beach Hazard Statment as
water temp in the upper 50s.

Previous Discussion...
An upper level low that is the remnants of Irma is passing
south of forecast area in the Gulf of Maine. Most of the shower
activity will stay south this evening and some mid-level clouds
towards Hancock and Washington counties will move out. A stalled
frontal boundary near the coast marks the boundary between
humid air and much drier air to the north. There is a large area
of fog and low clouds just off the coast on the south side of
the boundary. The fog and low clouds will advect northward in a
southerly flow tonight. Have specified areas of fog and drizzle
towards the coast tonight into the morning. Patchy fog and low
clouds will likely be pulled northward towards the Moosehead
Lake and Katahdin regions by late tonight...and potentially
towards Presque Isle. These thin clouds will burn off and
retreat back towards the coast in the morning. Meanwhile,
another dry cold front will enter northern Aroostook County in
the morning and slowly sweep southward towards a line from
southern Piscataquis County towards northern Washington County.
However, the more humid air that was drawn northward overnight
will tend to linger during Saturday with dew point at or above
60F for most of the area. The drier air behind the cold front
won`t arrive until Saturday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stalled frontal bndry wl begin lifting back to the north as a wmfnt
Sat night with isold showers expected acrs the north. Expect areas
of fog and patchy drizzle along the immediate coast late Sat night
in humid airmass. Muggy day expected on Sunday with area in the warm
sector. May see an isold shower for the north drg the day as bndry
lurks nearby. Temps wl be slightly abv normal for maxes on Sun with
u60s in the north to l/m 70s in the south, cooler closer to the
coast.

Areas of fog are expected Sun night thru the entire area as airmass
rmns humid. Mins wl be well abv normal Sun night, rmng in the m/u
50s. Wx wl be similar to Sun with isold showers ovr the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
All eyes will be focused on Jose for the long term portion of
the forecast. Models continue to differ significantly on his
track after Sunday. Latest GFS brushes Cape Cod Wed mrng bfr
steering it right and south of Nova Scotia. CMC does the same
thing albeit it about 12-18 hrs sooner. Latest EC is much slower
and essentially hits a brick wall Wed night, thus Jose spins
aimlessly (once again). Any potential impacts wl likely not be
clear with Jose until later this weekend (at the earliest). Hwvr
after Jose decides to go wherever he ends up high pressure wl
lkly control our wx thru the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR will likely affect BHB and coastal terminals
tonight. The fog and low clouds will likely spread towards BGR
and HUL as the night progresses. There is a slight chance a
brief period of low clouds could hit around CAR and PQI towards
sunrise, but confidence too low to include in TAFs based on
stronger/dry SW winds in that region.

SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR expected at southern terminals Sat night,
possibly improving to MVFR Sun afternoon. IFR at northern
terminals Sun morning improving to VFR. LIFR/IFR quickly sets
in again Sun night in areas of low clouds and fog before
improving during the day. Conditions will be variable by mid-
week depending on the track of Jose.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Fog will be the main feature this evening into
Saturday morning. Drizzle is also possible. The fog will likely
thin out by Saturday afternoon. Long period south swell near 3
feet continues during the period.

SHORT TERM: Areas of fog along with patchy drizzle can be
expected over the waters this weekend. Srly swell ahead of Jose
will begin to move in this weekend with seas increasing above 8
feet Tue morning with 10-14 second periods. Surf will likely be
high along with an increased risk for rip currents through the
middle of the week depending on the track of Jose.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt/MCW
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...MCW/Farrar/Hewitt
Marine...MCW/Farrar/Hewitt



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