Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 141526
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1126 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM
CENTRAL CANADA WILL CROSS ALL OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE LATE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:30 AM UPDATE...BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES TODAY WITH
CLOUD COVER KEEP CONDITIONS COOL. MADE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS
TO CLOUD COVER DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH INTO NEW BRUNSWICK
AROUND DAYBREAK. SHOWERS WILL WANE THROUGH DAYBREAK AS WELL AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT
DECENT MIXING TO OCCUR ONCE WE START TO GET DAYTIME HEATING,
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 20-25 MPH, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE
MIXING ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH, THOUGH
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY ONE AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND. FROST WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY IN THE NORTH, ESPECIALLY
IN SHELTERED OUTLYING VALLEYS IN OUR FAR NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING, WE CONSIDER
THE GROWING SEASON OVER IN THESE LOCATIONS, SO NO ADVISORIES WILL
BE ISSUED. FOR SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK, NORTHERN PENOBSCOT, AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES, THE FROST WILL ONLY BE
PATCHY IN NATURE. SOUTH OF THESE AREAS, LITTLE TO NO FROST IS
EXPECTED AS LOWS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM BEGINS FAIR ON MON AS SFC HI PRES MOVES E OF THE FA
INTO THE CAN MARITIMES. ANOTHER FAST...OPEN S/WV ALF FROM THE
GREAT LKS STATES WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CLDNSS FROM W TO E
ACROSS THE REGION MON AFTN AND EVE...WITH SHWRS FOLLOWING
BEGINNING LATE TNGT OVR FAR WRN PTNS OF THE FA AND TUE MORN ALG
THE NB BORDER. MODELS ARE A TAD SLOWER BRINGING THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SHWRS EWRD OUT OF THE FA TUE AFTN...SO WE HANG ON TO A MENTION
OF SHWRS TIL ABOUT ERLY TUE EVE OVR FAR ERN PTNS OF THE FA. WITH
TOTAL FCST QPF GENERALLY IN THE 0.10 TO 0.20 INCH RANGE...WE
BROUGHT MAX POPS WITH THIS EVEN TO ABOUT 80 PERCENT...MSLY CNTRD
IN THE MID MORN TO MIDDAY TM FRAME ON TUE. TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK SFC RIDGE OF HI PRES WILL PROVIDE A TRANQUIL TUE NGT. MEANWHILE...
BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GETTING IN BETTER
CONSENSUS REGARDING THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MDTLY STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVG SEWRD FROM NRN/CNTRL CAN ON WED. THE GFS IS STILL
FASTER...BRINGING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION WED MORN...WHILE THE
ECMWF PREFERS A LATER AFTN/ERLY EVE PASSAGE THRU OUR FA. OUR FCST
GRIDS ARE SET UP FOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO TIMINGS...AND
WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ANY SHWRS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE ISOLD IN CVRG AT BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
A FOLLOW-UP UPPER JET STREAK S/WV FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS CROSSING
OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WITH SOME LIFT LATER WED NGT...BUT WITH
LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE...ANY RN FROM SHWRS PRODUCED BY THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY REACHING THE GROUND BEFORE EVAPORATING...SO
FOR NOW WE WENT WITH SLGT CHC POPS THIS PD.

MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN WILL BRING SIG BLO AVG HI TEMPS THU
AND FRI. LOW TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE CHILLY WED NGT...MAY BE NEAR
RECORD COLD THU NGT AS THE SFC HI SETTLES OVR MUCH OF THE FA BY
ERLY FRI MORN...ALLOWING FOR SLACKENING WINDS LATE THU NGT AND
A PD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ACCOMPANY FROST POINT TEMPS AS
LOW AS LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA AND UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS E CNTRL/DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. THIS COULD
RESULTING IN FROST/FREEZES AS FAR S AS INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE
ERLY FRI MORN...WITH A POTENTIAL KILLING FROST/FREEZE ACROSS THE
N. WE WENT A LITTLE BLO FCST GUIDANCE FOR THU NGT LOWS...SPCLY
OVR BROAD VLY AREAS...BUT EVEN THESE LOWS MAY BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER WELL INTO THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 DEG ON FRI DESPITE A VERY COLD START FOR THIS TM OF
SEASON. WITH THE SFC HI ONLY SLOWLY MOVG E OF THE FA FRI NGT...
ERLY MORN LOW TEMPS SAT WILL ALSO BE QUITE CHILLY...BUT MILDER
OVRNGT 925MB TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEG C SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM REACHING
QUITE AS COLD AS ERLY FRI MORN. SAT SHOULD BEGIN MSLY SUNNY THEN
BECOME PTLY CLDY SAT AFTN AS A WARM FRONT WITH SW RETURN FLOW
APCHS THE FA FROM THE WSW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THIS
MORNING, THEN EXPECT CLOUDS TO QUICKLY LIFT AND THIN, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK REMAIN AT 2500-3500 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
ALL SITES TO BE BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z, WITH VFR TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES XPCTD MON THRU
MON EVE...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR LATE MON NGT WITH CLG HT...THEN
LOW MVFR OR IFR IN BOTH CLG HT AND VSBYS ON TUE IN RN SHWRS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE NGT THEN CONT VFR THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN EAST OF
THE WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND
BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS COLDER AIR
WRAPS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT THEY WILL ONLY BE OCCASIONAL AND ONLY FOR A FEW
HOURS, SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT,
ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE. WAVES WILL REMAIN 2 TO 4 FEET.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED ATTM...WITH WV HTS
BUILDING TO NEAR NEAR MINIMAL SCA CRITERIA OVR THE OUTER MZS
LATER WED INTO ERLY THU WITH INCREASED WNW WINDS BEHIND A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT. WENT WITH ABOUT 85 PERCENT OF FCST WW3 WV GUIDANCE
THIS UPDATE FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN






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