Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 271950
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
350 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach tonight and stall across central areas
on Thursday. The front will slowly slide south Thursday night and
stall near the coast on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Still looking for some tstms later this afternoon into early
tonight w/the pre-frontal trof. Another round of activity expected
on Thursday w/the arrival of the cold front.

18z analysis showed the best potential for convective activity
back across the w and nw into the evening hrs where the best
dewpoints pooling will reside(65-70) and MU CAPES AROUND
1200-1500 joules. Plus the best convergence resides in this area
as well. There is aloft of convection back across QUEBEC per the
latest obs and lightning detection. As stated earlier, offsetting
organized convection are the meager Lapse rates above 850 mbs and
a large area of dry above 800mbs. The 12z ua supported this as
well. GFS was highly overdone w/its moisture and precip coverage.
The NAM12 looked more reasonable in line w/the Hi Res WRF. Kept
the highest pops(40%) across the northern and western border into
the evening. This area has best shot for seeing any organized
strong storms. Further e and s, decided to cut the pops back to
20%. Activity looks to get going much later and kept the mention
of tstms across the northern tier into the overnight period w/the
apch of the cold front. Will leave in the enhanced wording attm
for the gusty winds and hail but again this has been scaled back
to the wnw areas. Overnight temps will reside in the 60s except
for the far w and nw areas as they will drop back into the 50s
w/the frontal passage. Kept the mention of patchy fog as well.

For Thursday, the cold front is forecast to slowly slide s and
then stall across the downeast region Thursday afternoon. Activity
is forecast to set up again later in the morning right into the
afternoon, first across northern 1/2 of the CWA and then down
across the Central Highlands and Downeast region. Atmosphere
appears to be a bit more favorable especially for the central and
downeast areas. Instability increases dramatically w/CAPE values
hitting 2000+ joules and 0-6km shear around 20+ kts. Strong
convergence along the front will allow for organized cells w/some
becoming strong or even severe. 0-3km lapse rates are forecast to
be 7.5 c/km w/mid level lapse rates hitting 6.5 c/km which is
favorable for possible severe is cells can get going. Will go
ahead and add enhanced wording for heavy rainfall and strong wind
gusts. In the stronger cells, redevelopment of storms could lead
to a flash flood potential w/heavy rainfall rates. Again, the best
potential attm looks to be across the central and downeast areas
from Millinocket and Greenville into the Bangor- Calais region.
Afternoon temps will warm well into the 80s in these areas
w/dewpoints in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front is expected to stall across the outer Gulf of Maine
Friday Night. Low pressure is then expected to move northeast
along the front. Showers are expected in coastal areas from this
system. High pressure is then expected to build in from the west
Saturday with dry conditions. Dry weather is also expected Sunday
as the high pressure system moves across New England.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will move off-shore late Sunday. A cold front is
expected to approach from the north Monday with some showers
possible in northern areas Monday and Tuesday while the south will
remain dry. Another cold front will approach the region from the
northwest Wednesday with more showers possible later Wednesday and
Thursday as the front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR tonight w/some mvfr vsbys for patchy fog by early
Thursday morning. Could be seeing some MVFR by Thursday afternoon
w/showers and tstms.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Friday at KBGR and
KBHB while VFR conditions are expected in the north. VFR
conditions are expected all areas Sunday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No headlines are expected this forecast as the cold
front stalls n of the waters. Winds for the most part will
average around 10 kts w/seas around 2 ft. Tstms are expected Thursday
afternoon into the evening.

SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM12 for winds through Saturday then
transition to the Super Blend Winds. For Waves: Will use the Near
Shore Wave Model to initialize grids through Saturday then
transition to the Wave Watch III. WWIII continues to show a high
bias with boundary conditions feeding into the near shore so have
lowered wave heights by 1 foot through the period. Expect primary
wave system Friday into Saturday to be wind wave from low pressure
passing to the east. For the remainder of the period expect longer
period incoming swell to dominate as wind speeds remain below 10
knots.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Hewitt/Mignone
Marine...Hewitt/Mignone


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