Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 171145
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
645 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track into the Canadian Maritimes today. High
pressure builds in on Saturday ahead of the next low pressure
that will track along the international border on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 am update...
Low pressure has already made it to Moncton NB as of 11z with
snow lightening up acrs ern zones this mrng. Expect this wl
continue to pull away as the morning wears on. Snowfall at CAR
at 11z was 0.6 inches and probably looking at another 1/2 inch
before it comes to an end by 16z. Van Buren has reported 2
inches attm.

Winds hv already kicked up and now gusting to nr 25kts acrs the
east and expect this to just increase drg the aftn as winds
just abv the sfc increase thru the day. Only chg to fcst was to
indicate more snow acrs the north rather than a mix as 12z sndg
from CAR is all blo 0C with the exception of the first 1000 ft.
No other chgs needed at this time.

Prev discussion blo...
991mb low currently located in vicinity of St. John NB as of
08z and tracking east and eventually twd the Maritimes tda. H5
low is right ont its heels as it spins thru the Downeast coast
tonight. Pcpn conts to wrap arnd lopres center with heaviest
echoes from CBW confined to New Brunswick. Northern Aroostook
cnty has gone over to all snow as of about 30min ago but areas
near Houlton rmn rain. Echoes continue to weaken ovr the past hr
with main frontogenesis shifting east in Canada. Expect this
trend to continue this mrng with lkly- categorical pops thru 12z
this mrng acrs far ern Aroostook bfr winding down to snow
showers aft this time.

Given isothermal profile thru the bulk of the overnight hrs and
rain lasting 2-3 hrs longer than anticipated hv cancelled winter
wx advisory for nw Aroostook with highest terrain possibly
picking up 3-4 inches by mrng. Elsewhere, snow amnts shud rmn
arnd 1-2 inches.

Temps expected to rmn fairly steady this mrng bfr beginning to
fall shortly aft noon. Cold advection wl allow strong winds to
mix down this aftn with potential for 30-40 mph wind gusts from
the northwest until late afternoon.

Temps expected to dip into the uteens/nr 20 tonight as nw winds
continue to filter in cldr air. Clr skies wl allow temps to drop
tho winds wl lkly keep them fm reaching their lowest point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Another mixed precipitation event is expected over the weekend,
with snow, rain, and freezing rain possible.

Saturday will start off dry as high pressure crosses the region.
This will be followed by strengthening low pressure which will lift
to our west. Clouds will increase from west to east during the
day Saturday, and western areas may see some rain late as warm
air advection begins aloft. Highs will range from the mid 30s
north to the lower and mid 40s Downeast.

The warm advection begins in earnest Saturday night as the low treks
up the Saint Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will fall a bit early in
the evening, but expect them to rise through much of the overnight
hours as the warm air advection begins in earnest. Precipitation
will also move in overnight Saturday night and continue into Sunday
morning. Downeast areas will see mainly rain, but areas along and
north of a Danforth to Dover-Foxcroft line will start out as with a
mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain, and perhaps a little sleet, as
colder air at the surface will be slower to scour out there. As
temperatures rise overnight, mixed precipitation will gradually
change over to all rain from south to north. The exact timing of
this changeover is hard to pin down at this point, which means snow
and ice accumulations are still a bit uncertain. However, at this
time we`re expecting most areas will see an inch or less of snow,
with up to a tenth of an inch of ice, especially over portions of
the North Woods.

For Sunday...outside of the more sheltered locations in the
upper St John River valley which may still be near freezing, expect
all precipitation will have turned over to rain by 8 am or so with
temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Widespread steady rain
will continue through the morning hours, then it should taper to
showers from south to north during the afternoon as the low moves
north of the region. Winds will turn to the west late in the day,
ushering in colder air and changing any lingering rain showers back
over to snow by the evening. Sunday`s high temperatures will be in
the lower and mid 40s north, lower to mid 50s Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Wrap around snow showers will be possible over northern areas
Sunday night into Monday. High pressure briefly builds across
Monday night and Tuesday, leading to cool but dry weather.
Northern areas will see more chances for snow showers Tuesday
night through Thursday as low pressure moves just to the north
of the St John Valley. Temperatures will remain near to below
normal through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Northern terminals reporting IFR in -sn this morning,
likely continuing thru 15z before slowly improving to MVFR as
snow winds down. Expect MVFR to continue until late in TAF valid
time with low cigs in stratocumulus expected tonight.

Southern terminals will see VFR next 24 hours as skies clear
late this afternoon. NW winds will gust to near 30kts at times
this afternoon at all terminals.

SHORT TERM: All terminals will see prevailing VFR through 21z
Saturday. Then expect conditions to deteriorate thereafter as
precipitation spreads from west to east. Southern terminals will
remain rain through the night, but the northern sites will
likely be a mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain 00z-12z Sun.
IFR conditions are likely during that time frame, and may linger
until 18z Sunday at the northern sites. Conditions will improve
to MVFR from south to north after 18z Sunday as precipitation
winds down, though some rain and snow showers should linger at
FVE and CAR through Sunday night; IFR possible in any
precipitation. MVFR conditions north and VFR south expected 12z
Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale warning will start this morning and likely
continue into the evening as winds gust to aoa 35kts throughout
the day in wake of low pressure moving east into the Maritimes.
Seas will increase above 5 feet this morning before dropping
around midnight tonight.

SHORT TERM: Headlines will likely be needed over the weekend as
a strengthening low pressure lifts to the north of the waters.
This will result in increasing south winds late Saturday through
Sunday, becoming west Sunday night. Small Craft conditions will
be likely Saturday night right into early next week. Gales will
be possible Sunday afternoon and night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...Farrar/Hastings
Marine...Farrar/Hastings



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