Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
FXUS61 KCAR 151632
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1232 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
High pressure will move east tonight with another cold front
approaching the area by late Sunday. This front will bring some
light rain showers to the region by Sunday night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1235 PM update...Patchy high clouds continue to stream into the
region this afternoon, resulting in partly to mostly sunny skies
across much of the area. Thicker clouds can be seen just to our
north and west, which should be enough to call skies mostly cloudy
in the St John Valley. Have made the appropriate adjustments to
sky cover. Also made some tweaks to temperatures; most spots are
in the mid and upper 40s at this hour and expect temperatures will
only rise a few more degrees through the afternoon, particularly
in the north where cloud cover will be most persistent. For the
most part, any changes made were minor.
A bit warmer today.
Frost/freeze looks on target right to the coast as temps continue
to drop through the 20s as far s as the Hancock and Washington
County coast. This will end the rest of the growing season. Will
let the Freeze Warning continue through sunrise and will drop it
w/the next update around 6 am. IR Satl imagery showed high clouds
moving across portions of northern Maine keeping temps up just a
bit, but latest scan showed clearing which will allow readings to
drop some more by sunrise. Temps will rebound today w/a decent
amount of sunshine to start the day. Mid and high cloudiness will
start to move into the region this afternoon as a disturbance seen
on the 00Z UA and water vapor imagery moves across the region.
This feature is picked up well by the mesoscale guidance.
Afternoon high temps are forecast to reach into the low and mid
50s which is right around normal for mid October.
Tonight will not be as cool as Friday night due to a light return
flow from the s. Still expecting temps to drop into the 30s for
most locales. There is some concern for patchy fog especially in
the river valleys. Model soundings including the NAM and GFS are
not too impressive with this setup as the llvls look to remain
dry. Therefore, decided to leave it out for now.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will continue to move off the New England coast
on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. A southwest
return flow around the high will result in milder afternoon
temperatures on Sunday with high temperatures climbing to around
60 degrees across the north and the lower 60s downeast. Along
with the milder air will come the chance for showers, especially
during Sunday afternoon. The cold front will move off shore Sunday
night ending the showers and giving way to partial clearing
overnight. Despite the passage of the front it will remain rather
mild Sunday night with lows only in the low to mid 40s across much
of the area. Monday is shaping up as a mainly sunny and
unseasonably mild day with high ranging from the mid to upper 50s
north and low to mid 60s downeast.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front will lift northeast toward the region Monday night
with increasing clouds and the chance for showers. Shower chances
will persist Tuesday night and Wednesday with the passage of the
cold front. The medium range guidance continues to differ with
the timing of the front with the EC bringing the front through
Wednesday morning and the GFS Wednesday afternoon. Have loaded
the superblend model guidance as the basis of the forecast which
keeps unsettled weather through mid to late week. Temperatures
through much of the period will continue above normal for this
time of year.
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through tonight for all terminals.
SHORT TERM: Variable conditions between VFR and MVFR are expected
in any showers with the passage of the cold front Sunday. High
pressure brings a return to VFR conditions on Monday. MVFR
conditions in showers are expected Tuesday into Wednesday.
NEAR TERM: Winds averaging 10-15 kts attm and expected to drop off
to less than 10 kts and turn to the sse today. Seas will average
2-3 ft at best and this will be out over the outer zones.