Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 291318 AAA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
918 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
--916AM UPDATE--
HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF
STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN MAINE THAT IS GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST AROUND BUBBLE HIGH THAT CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. LATEST HRRR/NAM SUGGESTS THIS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE BAR
HARBOR REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED CLOUD COVER
SOME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

6 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING AND A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY AHEAD. LOWERED EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN NW SPOTS JUST A BIT. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES THIS HOUR.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND
WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY SO WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
EXPECT A STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN TOTALS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY
THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STEADIER
RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSSIBLE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../


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