Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 231624
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1124 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND TRACK TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1120 EST: HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
ADJUST WEATHER GRIDS TO INCREASE AREAS WITH SNOW. ALSO INCREASED
QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

A STRATUS DECK PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO THE MARITIMES. SOME SPOTTY FLURRIES
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE WELL
AHEAD OF A LARGE STORM COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL
THICKEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SRPEAD INTO
DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TODAY AND SOME FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE REGION LATE TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT BUT RISE ABOVE
FREEZING DOWNEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLAIN RAIN DOWNEAST AND
SOME FREEZING RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTH. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH CENTRAL AREAS BEGINNING
THIS EVENING AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT. FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO PLAIN
RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, BUT POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVER THE FAR NORTH INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN
MAINE, AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY.
ALL AREAS SHOULD TOP THE FREEZING MARK BY THE END OF THE DAY AS
EXTREMELY MILD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN CONTINUING. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, EXPECT RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING WITH EXTREMELY MILD TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS AT RECORD LEVELS, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
MID 50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ON CHRISTMAS DAY FROM THE
SOUTH OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THIS POINT,
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DAMAGE FROM THE WINDS, THOUGH ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE WIND MAINLY DOWNEAST. FOR MORE
ON POSSIBLE RECORD TEMPS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HYDROLOGY ISSUES,
SEE OTHER SECTIONS OF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES FALL THURSDAY NIGHT AT LAST AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH. THE SNOWPACK WILL HAVE TAKEN A SERIOUS BEATING.
EVEN NORTHERN MAINE WILL ONLY BE LEFT WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW, IF THAT.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS ISN`T EVEN REMOTELY A COLD HIGH
PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE. THE
NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A COLD FRONT FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
SUNDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME. THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MINOR
SYSTEM...ONLY WENT WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY IN NORTHERN
SITES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE AN ISSUE AT MOST TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AT NORTHERN TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH ALL SITES BECOMING RAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS WILL BUILD TO AN SCA LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AND A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BUILD CLOSE TO GALE LEVELS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND COUPLED WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT, THIS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW
SIGNIFICANT THE ISSUES WILL BE. THERE IS GENERALLY TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF WATER IN THE SNOWPACK OVER NORTH/CENTRAL AREAS, MUCH OF
WHICH COULD MELT DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES, ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINTS, AND SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY
WINDS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
ARE SOME REMAINING ICE JAMS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THAW, MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. ONE JAM IS JUST DOWNRIVER OF FORT FAIRFIELD. ANY
JAMS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED ISSUES DURING THE UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING FROM THE
UPCOMING STORM, THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR OVERTOPPING ISSUES. THE
TWO HIGH TIDES OF CONCERN ARE THE MIDDAY THURSDAY HIGH TIDE AND
THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR CARIBOU, WE ARE FORECASTING 49, AND THE
RECORD IS 48. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR BANGOR, WE ARE FORECASTING 55,
AND THE RECORD HIGH IS 51.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ001-002.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ003>006-010.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE



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