Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 280423
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1223 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WITH IT COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0020 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WIND AND DEWPOINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOSTLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER. THERE WAS A WEAK WAVE THAT MOVED NORTH OF
THE REGION AND BROUGHT A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA.
THIS BROUGHT MORE OF A NW FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
AND KEPT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. TONIGHT
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCES OF FOG WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FA WHERE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE
A WARM DAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES DOMINATE AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ACROSS QUEBEC. THAT SAID TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WHICH WILL PUT SOME OF THE
CURRENT RECORD HIGHS FOR TOMORROW IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING A
SCREECHING HALT TO THE RECENT RUN OF MILD WEATHER. THE FRONT WILL
BE MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT THE NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A
STEEP LOW LEVEL WEDGE OF RELATIVELY COLD AIR. THIS MEANS THAT
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT`S
LOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY DROP MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
CHILLY TEMPS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S IN NORTHERN ZONES AND REACH THE LOWER 60S AROUND BANGOR
BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS REPRESENTS A DROP OF
OVER 20 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY`S HIGHS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING MONDAY AND SPREAD OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
COLD LOW LEVEL WEDGE. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY IN
NORTHERN ZONES AND LAST FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE ALLAGASH
TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH IN PRESQUE ISLE. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS
BANGOR...ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.

LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S
ELSEWHERE. AFTER THE RAIN ENDS EARLY TUESDAY...THE CLOUDS AND COLD
WEDGE WILL PERSIST...PRODUCING ANOTHER CHILLY DAY. HIGHS NORTH
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MID 50S
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE...BUT FROST WILL BE A THREAT EACH NIGHT
IN NORTHERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
NIGHTTIME READINGS FALLING INTO THE 30S NORTH. LOWS FOR DOWN EAST
WILL BE CLOSER TO AROUND 40F.. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AND WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS
LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TOWARDS THE COAST AS THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS. MOIST EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COAST BY
FRIDAY WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. THESE LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SATURDAY WITH RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS. RIGHT NOW BEST CHANCES OF SEEING MVFR/IFR ARE AT THE
SOUTHERN MOST TAF SITES.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF HUL LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTH TO BHB DURING MONDAY MORNING. THESE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANT INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALL SITES
EXCEPT SOME PERIODS OF IFR CIG/VIS NORTH OF HUL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TUESDAY EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR
OUTSIDE OF SHALLOW FOG AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH WINDS AND SEAS
STAYING BELOW CRITERIA.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEARLY 30 KTS AT TIMES WITH SEAS
REACHING AROUND 7 FEET. THIS SCA WILL END LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
NO FURTHER ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/






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