Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 311434
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1034 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH OF MAINE. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NEARER
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DOWNEAST WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHOWERS WILL COME TO A QUICK
END DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES BY EVENING. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE 50S, WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS
POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA INTO THE LATE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
BUILDING HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER
TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE...MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT WILL RESULT IN A FEW NEAR AVG TEMPS DAYS
AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP
ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES. AHEAD OF EACH S/WV WILL BE A NOMINAL
CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS.

TUE LOOKS TO BE AN IDEAL SUNNY...DRY DAY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC
DWPTS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVR NRN AND E CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG. AFT COMFORTABLE EVE
CONDITIONS...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FA FROM THE WSW AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE
NGT INTO ERLY WED MORN.

THEN A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ARRIVES INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY WED
AFTN...BRINGING LIKELY THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS
WEEK TO MSLY THE NRN HLF OF THE FA WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY
CONSIDERING SFC DWPTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S BY WED AFTN...
RESULTING IN PROJECTED MAX SBCAPES OF 900 TO 1300 J/KG. WITH WEAK
TO MDT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR...MDTLY HIGH FZLS...AND A BURST OF MDTLY
HI PWATS OF 1.30 TO 1.60 INCHES...A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT A LITTLE TO SOON TO MENTION THESE POSSIBLE ENHANCED
ELEMENTS IN FCST WORDING ATTM. WE WENT WITH A NARROW BAND OF MAX
LOW LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR N AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA DURG
THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS ON WED...USING A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER
DTMNSTC 00Z GFS AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF FOR TMG.

OTHERWISE...WHATS LEFT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVR
CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA WED EVE WITH THE LOSS
OF HTG AS THE INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SWRD INTO THE FA WED
NGT. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME MCLR LATE WED NGT.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWRD OVR THE FA BEGINNING THU
MORN ACROSS THE N...REACHING DOWNEAST AREAS THU AFTN. FOR MOST
LCTNS...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY...BUT AND ISOLD SHWR OR TSTM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVR WRN DOWNEAST AREAS MID TO LATE THU AFTN. BEHIND
THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SFC DWPTS WILL DROP AGAIN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S OVR THE FA. AFTR UNCERTAINTY OVR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO AGREE THAT THIS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL LAST OVR THE FA THRU FRI...WITH HI TEMPS STILL
AOA AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON UNDER MSLY SKIES AND LGT WINDS.

SAT APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY BACK TO WARMER AND SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS SFC WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WSW...BUT
STILL UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS THE CNTR OF THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
MOVES E OVR CNTRL NEW ENG. THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE FAIR AND WARM TO VERY WARM WITH HI TEMPS POTENTIALLY WELL
INTO THE 80S (XCPT COOLER ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HI MTN TRRN)
AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVR NEW ENG...WITH A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON LABOR DAY AS A MDTLY STRONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
CAN BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW WE HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANY POPS TO THE REGION ON LABOR DAY.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING THEN WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR FOR THE TAF SITES THRU THESE PTNS
OF THE FCST...XCPT POSSIBLY A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWR WED AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...SPCLY ACROSS
NRN TAF SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE SEAS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 3
FEET. THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THESE PTNS OF THE
FCST...WITH WV HTS OVR OUTER MZ WATERS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT AND ALG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST 1 TO 2 FT. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE FOR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
NEAR SHORE WATERS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN


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