Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 270405
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
BUILD NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND
HUMID FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1205 AM UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE AS THE LINE OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY CROSSING NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY IS NOT
DISSIPATING AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
HAS BROUGHT WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO
MORE PERSISTENT SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S...MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

MODIFIED POPS/WX GRIDS FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...LOADED A BLEND OF
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR HRLY T/TD/WNDS. BUMPED DOWN WINDS ABOUT
3 KTS OVER COASTAL WATERS...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A COUPLE FEET AND ABOUT 5
KTS BELOW WHAT GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED...THEREFORE USED LOCAL WAVE
GUIDANCE FOR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 6Z...MODIFIED NAWAVE 4 FOR 6Z
THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE PRIMARY THREATS
CONTINUING FROM THE AFTERNOON WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS BEING LARGE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE. THAT SAID...CAPE IS NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST
AND BULK SHEAR LOOKS A BIT LOW. IT HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY`S
OUTLOOK. CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAVY DOWNPOUR PART OF THE EQUATION HAS
INCREASED. HIGH PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES...A DEEP WARM LAYER...DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S...AND A LOW LEVEL JET WITH ALL BE IN PLACE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING FOR
HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A
THERMAL RIDGE AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT APPROACHING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. THIS WILL ONLY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL COVER WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
WILL ADVECT A MARINE LAYER WITH SOME DRIZZLE. RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE ANTICIPATED. THE FRONT CREEPS
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE FROM MORNING READINGS IN THE 60S
TOWARDS THE MID 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE COASTAL HANCOCK AND THE
PENOBSCOT BAY AREA WHERE FOG AND STRATUS MAY LINGER MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FORECAST
AREA IN CONCERT WITH MAX HEATING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
AND CREATE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH MORE CAPE AND SHEAR
THAN WEDNESDAY. THUS...THE FOCUS MAY SHIFT MORE TO WINDS AND HAIL
MORE THAN JUST THE HEAVY RAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNLIKE
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER JET
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION. THE FRONT WILL LEAVE COASTAL REGIONS
DURING THE EVENING AND GET RID OF ANY RESIDUAL FOG. A DRIER AND
COOLER CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE SEVENTIES WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY AND SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO THE LOWER 80S AND
IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT UPPER 80S OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE CROWN OF
MAINE LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENTRY TIME INTO THE
STATE AND THE FACT IT IS A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS OVER THE PAST DAYS THAT THE
SURFACE FRONT MAY CROSS FIRST AND STABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
COULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT AND MAXIMIZE THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN AND SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS ZONE AND THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DEPART THE DOWN EAST
COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS ECMWF/GEMS
TIMING OVER THE PAST DAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MARK THE
RETURN TO A CANADIAN AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY THROUGH MONDAY. FROST IS A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED UNTIL MID-MORNING BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF
MVFR SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 15Z AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS. THINK BEST CHC FOR THUNDER EXISTS BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z
AT FVE, CAR, PQI AND HUL AND HAVE ADDED IN TEMPO GROUP. FURTHER
SOUTH, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF TAF VALID TIME, THO
BHB MAY SEE MVFR VSBYS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. IFR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS UP OVER 5 FEET THIS EVENING DUE TO SWRLY FLOW, THO
WINDS REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. HAVE ISSUED SCA FROM
00Z WED THROUGH 09Z THURSDAY AS IT LOOKS AS THO A LONG PERIOD OF
5+ FEET WAVES EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM WITH 5
FOOT SEAS EXPECTED IN SW FLOW. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING
FROPA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOG WILL BE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...HASTINGS/NORTON/MCW
MARINE...HASTINGS/NORTON/MCW



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