Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 221540
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1140 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will be across north central areas today
while low pressure near the Mid Atlantic coast tracks south of
the Gulf of Maine. High pressure will build across the region
Monday. Low pressure will lift north across the region Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...Based on latest observations, needed to raise this
afternoon`s high temperatures about 2 to 3 degrees in all areas
north of the immediate coast. Lowered pop through early this
afternoon and removed mention of thunder this afternoon.

previous discussion
Convergence along a weak frontal boundary
across north central areas will provide focus for some showers and
spotty thunderstorms today. Capes are up to 300 J/KG over the
north. Moisture will be feeding into the front from the moist
trough of low pressure hanging back in the Mid-Atlantic region.
Surface low pressure will track southeast of Cape Cod and south of
the Gulf of Maine today. The northern edge of this system may
bring some light rain to coastal areas. Weak surface ridging will
then be over interior Downeast locations between the offshore low
and the frontal boundary to the north, and will likely keep
interior Downeast areas mostly dry today. Otherwise, today will be
mostly cloudy and warm across the region. Any showers along the
northern front will taper off at the end of the day. Tonight will
then bring some clearing over northern areas while Downeast
remains mostly cloudy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
High pressure will ridge south across the region Monday with
partly/mostly sunny skies across northern and central portions of
the forecast area, with partly/mostly cloudy skies Downeast.
Surface/upper level low pressure will begin to lift north from the
Mid Atlantic region Monday night. Partly cloudy/mostly clear
skies are expected across central and northern portions of the
forecast area Monday night. Cloud cover will increase Downeast
with a chance of showers late. The surface/upper low will lift
across the region Tuesday through Tuesday night with mostly
cloudy skies and showers. The warmest temperatures Monday/Tuesday
are generally expected across northern portions of the forecast
area where the most sun will occur, with cooler temperatures
Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will cross the region Wednesday with a chance of
showers and possible thunderstorms. The front will stall south of
the region Thursday...then begin to lift back north Friday into
Saturday. However...uncertainty exists regarding the exact
location of the front Friday into Saturday. Expect unsettled
conditions across the region Friday/Saturday with showers or
possibly a steadier rain dependent on the location of the front.
Temperatures will be at slightly above normal levels
Wednesday/Thursday. Temperatures are generally expected to be at
near normal levels Friday/Saturday, though temperatures will be
dependent on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area today and
tonight. The possible exception may be some thundershowers over
the north today or patchy lower clouds Downeast late tonight.

SHORT TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region
Monday. However, occasional MVFR conditions are possible Downeast
early Monday then again later Monday night. MVFR to LIFR conditions
will expand north across the region Tuesday. Occasional MVFR
conditions are possible across the region Wednesday. Generally
expect VFR conditions across the region Thursday, though MVFR to
IFR conditions could begin to develop Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA today. An
sca will be needed for winds gusting up to 25 kt and seas up to 7
ft tonight in response to the offshore storm tracking south of the
Gulf of Maine.

SHORT TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for much of the
waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters, into Monday
afternoon. Conditions are then expected to be below Small Craft
Advisory levels Monday night into Tuesday night. Visibilities
will be reduced in showers later Monday night into Tuesday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/Duda
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Bloomer/Duda/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/Duda/Norcross



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