Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 200517
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
117 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region tonight through
Saturday then move east Sunday. A cold front will cross the
region Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 am update...
Quick update to hrly t/td values and to lwr mins this mrng by a
degree or two. Hv added in patchy fog to more of the area where
dwpt depressions are < 3C and bumped timing of fog dvlpmnt up to
now. Still vry patchy at this time but expect it to dvlp more as
the mrng wears on. Hv kept sky cvr acrs the far northeast the same
as low clds mv in fm NB and cirrus streaming in fm the west. No
major chgs needed with this update.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure will remain in place producing dry conditions
through the day Saturday. High temperatures Saturday will
generally range from the upper 70s to around 80 across the
forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Period will begin with broad southwest flow as the area is
sandwiched between North Atlantic high pressure and an
approaching surface cold front from the Ohio valley. On-shore flow
to develop Saturday night, a marine layer could push into coastal
Downeast bringing fog and low stratus to the coast. The NAM is the
most aggressive with the low level moisture fetch, didn`t go
overboard but increased cloud cover and pushed morning fog further
inland for a short period Sunday morning. Marine layer should burn
off on Sunday morning, with high and mid-level clouds streaming in
as a surface cold associated with a 500mb shortwave trough pushes
in from the Ohio River valley Sunday night.

Timing looks good with most model guidance for the rain to start
out in the Northwoods by late evening and will push through the
state from west to east through the night. A brief period of heavy
rain and a rumble of thunder could be possible along the surface
frontal boundary. Models have trended down on the QPF over the
last 24 hours, but still looks like a good soaking with a general
.75-1.00 inches of rain. Front will push out of the area across
Downeast on Monday morning, with a few lingering showers across
the North, but clearing elsewhere. It will be a cool day with
highs in the 70s with NW flow across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Relatively quiet weather expected Tuesday through Thursday as
surface high pressure looks to build across the region, with broad
ridging off the Atlantic seaboard. Expect a warming trend after
the quick cool down on Monday and Tuesday. Warm SW flow becomes
re-established by Tuesday night with above average temperatures
expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Next chance for rain looks to
be on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR expected at FVE, BGR and BHB next 24 hours. CAR,
PQI and HUL will see ocnl MVFR/IFR restrictions in fog through
12z this morning. Low clouds moving in from New Brunswick may
bring MVFR cigs to these terminals and have included tempo group
to account for this. After 12z expect VFR remainder of taf valid
time.

SHORT TERM: LIFR conditions possible Saturday night at KBHB/KBGR
with a marine layer bringing low stratus and coastal fog.
Conditions should improve as the fog burns off Sunday morning. A
surface cold front will bring IFR conditions to all TAF terminals
Sunday night into Monday morning with brief periods of moderate to
heavy rain expected. Conditions will improve Monday afternoon as
clearing is expected behind the cold front. VFR conditions are
expected Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels tonight through Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Southerly moist flow expected on Saturday night
through Sunday ahead of an approaching surface cold front. Fog and
low visibilities possible over the waters. Southerly winds could
increase up to 20kts during the day on Sunday. Front will push
across the waters late Sunday night through Monday morning. Seas
and winds are expected to stay below SCA conditions at this time.
High pressure will build over the waters Monday afternoon.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar/Mignone
Short Term...Dumont
Long Term...Dumont
Aviation...Farrar/Mignone/Dumont
Marine...Farrar/Mignone/Dumont



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