Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 211610

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1210 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area today
and move east Monday. An occluded frontal system will cross the
region Monday night. Another low will approach from the
southwest on Wednesday.

1155 am update...Increased today`s highs towards the coast with
the offshore flow. Otherwise, high clouds are just starting to
reach the forecast area and will thicken this evening.

Previous discussion... High pressure will continue to build
across the region today. Abundant sunshine can once again be
expected today as the air mass is very dry. After a chilly
start, high temperatures are expected to rise into the mid to
upper 60s across the region.

Mainly clear skies can be expected this evening before mid and
high clouds increase in advance of the next system approaching
from the west. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 40s.

Models cont to slow the advc of lgt shwrs/rn into the Rgn Mon,
with any organized rnfl now looking to be exclusively Mon ngt as
a weakening occluded front crosses the Rgn. Any patchy fog
looks to be msly lmtd to near the Downeast coast late Mon ngt.
Following the passage of the front, there will be a break in
rnfl for the Rgn Tue and Tue ngt with ptly to msly cldy skies
and late ngt patchy fog for the Downeast Coast. Temps thru this
pd will not be far from avg for this tm of season.

Models are in reasonable agreement with bringing a lead sfc low
pres system NE from the mid Atlc states on Wed affecting msly
Downeast and Ern ptns of the Rgn late Wed into Wed ngt with max
low likely PoPs. Another sfc low pres system associated with an
upper lvl low will keep unsettled conditions across the region
for the late week with max PoPs well in the likely range with
potentially more organized rnfl. Temps will be near avg as a
whole, with below normal day tm hi temps balanced by at to abv
normal ovrngt lows.

NEAR TERM: VFR through tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR conditions all TAF sites xpctd on Mon
with Nrn TAF sites lowering to MVFR clgs/vsbys in shwrs/rn Mon
ngt and IFR for Downeast sites in rn/fog. All sites will rise to
VFR by Tue aftn...and remain so thru Wed with IFR clgs/vsbys
possible ovr Downeast sites Tue ngt. All sites lower to low MVFR
of IFR in rn Wed ngt and cont so into Thu.

NEAR TERM: Wind/seas will remain below small craft advisory
through tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No definable pd of SCA conditions, with wv
hts possibly increasing to arnd 5 ft ovr our outer MZs by late
week. Went with about 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv
hts thru these ptns of the fcst. Patchy marine fog will be
present at tms, spcly during the ngt and erly/mid morn hrs.


Near Term...Duda/MCW
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
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