Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCAR 191307
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
907 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKYCON AND HRLY TEMPS
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE DOWNEAST TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO AROUND 50 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE
LOWER 30S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE STATE LATE MONDAY THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF VERY
SIMILAR WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PASSING TO SOUTH. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BLEND BOTH MODELS
50/50. WILL USE THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE WITH CHANGE IN AIR
MASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY. AT THE SAME TIME EXPECT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR CAPE COD DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS KBGR AND KBHB...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTH.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE MOSG25 WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY
WAVE GROUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOCAL SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE
(2-3 FEET/4-5 SECONDS) WITH SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM 2
FEET/9-10 SECONDS. AS OCEAN LOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE (10-12 FEET/8 SECONDS) THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM (6 FEET/9 SECONDS) ALSO GENERATED
BY THE OCEAN LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORTON/MIGNONE






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.