Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCAR 271952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
352 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR
THE FRONT PASSAGE HAS BEEN DRY BUT EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BECOME
ACTIVE AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. LIKE CONSISTENCY OF GFS AND
ECMWF LAST FEW DAYS SO HAVE USED THESE TWO MODELS FOR MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY COVER. BASED ON OFFICE
VERIFICATION NUMBERS WILL USE THE BIAS CONSENSUS ALL FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE BIAS CONSENSUS RAW WAS USED
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ALSO BASED ON VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND
WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. NORTHWEST MAINE HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF COOL TEMPS AS THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN THERE FIRST. WINDS
IN MOST CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE WITH TEMPS
NOT GETTING AS COOL AS THEY OTHERWISE COULD BE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST MAINE TO LOW 50S DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A
CRISP, CLEAR DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND VERY DRY AIR/LOW DEW
POINTS.

THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER, MUGGIER SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING.
SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING GENERALLY UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER,
TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOTS OF PRECIPITATION STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN AS DISTURBANCES RIDE EAST ALONG A VERY SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST PLACES WILL GET A WETTING RAIN AT SOME
POINT FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT JUST WHERE AND WHEN
THAT HAPPENS IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. IT APPEARS THE BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTH EARLY ON (LATE SATURDAY TO
EARLY SUNDAY), WITH THE BETTER SHOT OF RAIN SHIFTING SOUTH WITH
THE FRONT TO DOWNEAST LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, IT
APPEARS AN UNSETTLED AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.


SHORT TERM: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY
EVENING, WITH VFR EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. MVFR AND IFR EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WIND HAVE INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH
NAM12. WILL LOWER SPEED BY 10 PERCENT BASED ON EXPECTED STRENGTH
OF INVERSION LAYER. FOR WAVES: EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE FRONT FROM
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO ARRIVE IN LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS EVENING
AND BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FEET/14-15 SECONDS BY MID DAY THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM CRISTOBALWILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL FINALLY DROP TO
BELOW 5 FEET AROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SOUTH WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SEAS
GOING BACK UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET LATE SUNDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO
     2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...MIGNONE/FOISY
MARINE...MIGNONE/FOISY








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.