Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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049
FXUS61 KCAR 100927
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
427 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH A RE-ENFORCING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH LEFT OVR LLVL MOISTURE AND WEAK S/WV ENERGY PROPAGATING WSW
TO ENE ACROSS THE FA...WE KEEP CLD AND SCT FLURRIES MENTION THRU
THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SIG S/WV ENERGY APCHS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...BRINGING HIGHER POPS OF
MEASURABLE SNFL SPCLY TO SRN PTNS OF THE REGION WHERE WE WENT WITH
LIKELY SN SHWR POPS AND SNFL AROUND AND INCH...WITH CHC POPS N AND
LESSER SN AMOUNTS. THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS CROSSES THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK THU...WITH THE SECOND ARCTIC FRONT APCHG THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VLY OF ERN QB ATTM. HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH ONE LAST RELATIVELY MILD
NGT FOR OVRNGT LOWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY AND
SNOW TAPERING OFF IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND SOME VERY LOW
TOP SNOW SHOWERS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE
PRESSURE FIELDS BUT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE H925 TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST WIND CHILL ADVISORY OF THE SEASON DURING
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN -10F IN THE
ALLAGASH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10F ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST WHERE SINGLE DIGITS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUBZERO
READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE. A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TWO BIG STORIES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NORLUN ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST AND THE INTRODUCTION OF THE
SEASON`S COLDEST AIR. THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THE BIGGEST
NORLUN ALONG THE COAST IN MANY YEARS DUE TO THIS COLD AIR. THE KEY
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH...BUT TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. ALL AREAS
WILL SEE SUBZERO READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINUS 20 POSSIBLE IN
THE ALLAGASH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND
LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
WIND CHILL HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL GENERATE HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND INTENSIFY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE A VERY
SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH
FROM THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH
THE RESULTANT P-TYPE DEPENDENT ON THIS TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LIKE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND WILL GO WITH SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CLGS WITH BRIEF VFR INTERVALS CAN BE XPCTD FOR THE
TAF SITES TODAY INTO TNGT. MVFR VSBYS AND EVEN BRIEF IFR VSBYS CAN
BE XPCTD WITH SN SHWRS ATTMS...SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES DURG THE
EVE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THURSDAY WITH
TEMPORARY IFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MVFR CIGS WITH
TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF
A PREDOMINANT CONDITION TOWARDS BHB AND MACHIAS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE HAVE OPTD TO HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA HDLNS GIVEN THAT
4-5FT WVS ARE LONG PD SWELL. WITH LARGER WVS XPCTD BY LATE TNGT...
THE DAY CREW CAN ISSUE AN SCA IN A LATER FCST UPDATE. KEPT CLOSE
TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. A GALE IS MORE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW



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