Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 230329
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1129 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary across central maine this evening will
dissipate. high pressure will build across the region monday. low
pressure will lift north across the region tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
11:30 PM Update...Lowered temps a bit over the far northwest where
some drier, cooler air has intruded. Also, cut back on sky cover
in southwestern areas. Otherwise, no major changes this hour.

Orgnl Disc: A frontal boundary was situated across northern Maine
late this afternoon. The combination of weak convergence along the
front and diurnal instability has resulted in a few showers
developing in the vicinity of the boundary, mainly from the
Katahdin region north. There have been a few lightning strikes to
the east of the ME/NB border but none noted across our area attm.
Will continue to mention scattered showers and isolated tstms
through late afternoon north of the Katahdin region before any
activity diminishes quickly with the lose of heating early this
evening.

Elsewhere, a weak area of low pressure east of Cape Cod will continue
to weaken as it lifts northeast toward western Nova
Scotia. Downeast Maine could see a few showers through early
evening, especially the Eastport area. Otherwise, expect party to
mostly cloudy skies tonight with lows generally in the upper 40s
to around 50 degrees.

Monday is shaping up as a fine spring day as a weak area of
high pressure at the surface builds across and an upper level low
remains to our south. It will continue unseasonably warm for this
time of year with highs in the mid to upper 70s across the
region, except in the mid 60s to around 70 near the immediate
coast with an onshore flow expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
All of the models are in good agreement through the short term
period. A weak high pressure ridge will be retreating from out
area as a trough from a cold core low east of Delmarva moves into
the northern Gulf of Maine. A low west of James Bay with a cold
front extending south to western IA will work its way towards
Maine through the period. Tuesday morning the cold core Low will
track north to the coast of NY pushing the trough associated with
the low into southern Maine. Tuesday evening the cold core low
moves over Cape Cod, the trough moves into northern Maine. The
system over Canada continues to move east, with the front through
western Quebec, through the central Great Lakes, into IN.
Wednesday morning the cold core low moves into southeast
Maine/southwest New Brunswick. The Canadian front moves to central
Quebec, through the eastern Great Lakes, into western PA. By the
end of the period the cold core low moves into eastern New
Brunswick, the front moving across Quebec moves into northern
Maine.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the minor differences in the models.
The blend more closely follows the solution of the GFS. Loaded
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor
tool.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will cross the cwa Wednesday night with some
showers and the possibility of an evening thunderstorm. The front
will stall to the south of the area Thursday into Friday with
high pressure to the north of the area to settle into the
maritimes Friday as an upper level ridge builds across the area.
the weather pattern Friday into the weekend remains somewhat
uncertain. Thursday looks mainly dry, but some showers are
possible friday as a frontal boundary moves into the area. at
this time it looks like saturday may end up dry with another
chance of showers Sunday. Although there will be some on and off
again shower chances, much of the time will be rain free. The air
mass will support above average temperatures much of the time, but
if one of the days has enough cloud cover and shower activity
around temps could be closer to seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: There could be VCSH/VCTS KCAR/KPQI terminals through
22z today otherwise VFR all site through Monday.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions all sites at the start of the period, increasing
clouds and decreasing ceilings overnight becoming MVFR BHB and BGR
Tuesday morning. MVFR conditions will extend to HUL by early
afternoon then into CAR, PQI, and FVE early evening. MVFR with
scattered showers will persist Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning. IFR conditions early afternoon Wednesday FVE, spreading
to the other sites Wednesday evening as a cold front moves into
central Maine. MVFR conditions return early Thursday morning, the
VFR conditions all sites Thursday afternoon as the remnants of the
front move into New Brunswick. High pressure will build across
bringing VFR conditions to all sites Thursday night and will
remain through the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 845 PM Update: Not so sure about the onset of SCA wind
and wv conditions at 11PM ovr our waters...but WW3 wv guidance
does show a sharp increase in wv hts between 11PM-2AM. We will
cont to monitor...but there is uncertainty with the current fcst
perhaps a worst case fcst scenario of wv hts attm.

Orgnl Disc...An SCA is in effect starting 11 pm tonight and into
Mon afternoon, mainly for seas.

SHORT TERM: An SCA for seas may be required Wednesday afternoon as an upper
low tracks through the Gulf of Maine, otherwise winds and seas
below SCA criteria.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A Total of 4.8" of snow has been observed this May at Caribou.
This makes May 2016 the 4th snowiest on record. the all-time
record of 10.9" of snow was observed in 1967.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Norton
Long Term...CB
Aviation...VJN/Norton
Marine...VJN/Norton



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