Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 180030
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
730 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7:30 PM UPDATE...LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STORM TRACK JUST A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH AN AXES OF HEAVIEST SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST
AROOSTOOK AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE CUT BACK A BIT ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES
INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW
MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING
TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A
WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS
IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND
KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>005-
     010-011-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ006-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MCB
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES
MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES



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