Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 210119
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
919 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east into the Maritimes tonight into
Sunday. A strong cold front will approach Sunday night and cross
the area Monday morning. High pressure will follow on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9:19 PM Update...A pleasant late summer evening. Areas of low
clouds are showing up offshore on the 11u-3.9u satellite product.
Expect the low cloud and fog will move across the Down East region
overnight as a low level moist return flow continues around a
departing sfc high. The low cloud and fog may get advected north
into parts of eastern Aroostook County by daybreak, but confidence
is not as high across northern areas. Only minor tweaks to the
ongoing forecast based on the latest observations, satellite
pictures, and near term model trends.

Previous discussion...
Another round of low clouds and fog will set up across the region
later tonight into early Sunday morning.

SSE winds around high pres sitting in the Bay of Fundy will bring
llvl moisture into the region tonight. Cloud will advect into the
downeast and coast early tonight and then overspread the rest of
the region overnight into Sunday morning. Temperatures will drop
back into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Decided to carry areas of
fog w/some areas seeing dense fog w/vsbys dropping AOB 1/2 of a
mile.

Low clouds and fog will linger into Sunday morning but forecast
soundings show good mixing of the southerly winds and sunshine
setting up. This will allow for the low clouds and fog to lift
and burn off. High pres pushing further e during the day will
allow for the south winds to increase to 10 to 15 mph which will
allow for an increase in the dewpoints. This in turn will lead to
increase in humidity. A cold front apchg from Quebec will bring
increasing clouds into the region by the afternoon w/some light
rain coming into western areas by late in the day. Used a blend of
of the guidance for the pops showing 30-40% for the aforementioned
areas by late afternoon. Afternoon temps will be tempered a bit
due to the south wind and increasing clouds. Afternoon maxes are
forecast to reach mid to upper 70s w/low 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong high pressure over the Maritimes will continue to move away
to the east as intense low pressure moves north through Quebec
Province. A cold front will move across the State Sunday Night.
Expect showers across all areas and some thunder south as the
front moves through. Strong high pressure is then expected to move
in from the west Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong high pressure will pass to the south of New England Tuesday
Night as a weak cold front approaches from the north. The strong
high to the south is expected to dominate into early Thursday. A
cold front will approach from the west during the day Thursday.
This is expected to result in showers Thursday Night into the day
Friday as the front moves across the region. Strong high pressure
will then move in from the west Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR late this evening w/MVFR and IFR due to low clouds
and fog expected later tonight into Sunday morning, especially so
at the Down East terminals. Conditions are forecast to improve to
VFR by mid morning as s winds increase.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions are expected Monday. VFR conditions
are expected Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No headlines expected into Sunday. Kept s winds around
10 kts w/seas averaging 2-3 ft away from the intra coastal zone.

SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM12 to initialize the wind grids.
Will reduce the model winds by 10 percent to account for boundary
conditions. For Waves: Wind wave is expected to dominate through
this period with wave heights running around 2 feet. Currently
some very long period swell showing up in spectral at 44027 (1
foot/13-15 seconds). Believe this is coming from Fiona. Long
period swell is expected to persist through Tuesday, however wave
heights from long period swell should stay at or below 1 foot.
Have used the Near Shore Wave model to populate the wave grids.
Boundary conditions look good so will not make and adjustments to
wave heights.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Hewitt
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...CB/Hewitt/Mignone
Marine...CB/Hewitt/Mignone



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