Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 261623
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1223 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach from the south this afternoon. The
low will dissipate while moving away to the east tonight and
Thursday. A cold front will approach on Friday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1220pm update....Rain and drizzle dominates today as the low
moves north. A heavier band with some instability aloft is
currently moving into southern Maine and will propagate through
this forecast area later in the afternoon into the evening. By
tonight, the rain moves east out of the area, but the saturated
low levels continue under a strengthening inversion. As a
result, will go with light rain and drizzle with areas of fog
tonight into Thursday morning. Lowered highs for today and
tomorrow while increasing lows tonight.

previous discussion
Weak low pressure along the mid atlantic coast will move
northeast to the southern New England coast late tonight. Rain
will continue across the region today as the low slowly moves
northeast. The heaviest rain is expected to be across central
and downeast portions of the region where one to one and one
half inches of qpf is expected. Across far northwest Maine and
the St John Valley, amounts are expected to be less, generally
ranging from one-third to one-half inch. High temperatures today
will generally be in the lower 50s regionwide.

The steady rain will begin to taper off this evening as the
surface and upper level lows continue to weaken. However,
abundant low level moisture will remain across the region
tonight as a light southeast flow will result in low clouds
along with areas of fog and drizzle, especially downeast. Lows
tonight will range from the upper 40s to around 50.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thu will feature an upper lvl ridge contaminated by a sig amt of
llvl moisture due to Srly llvl winds. This will mean that
patchy dz/fog will give way by late morn to mcldy skies and
isold shwrs for the remainder of the day. Brightening of the sky
by thin ptns or breaks in the ovc Thu aftn should help temps
recover to highs of lower to mid 60s across the region, xcpt alg
the Downeast coast where onshore winds will result in cooler hi
temps in the 50s.

Similar to erly morn Thu, late ngt patchy fog and dz will return
to the region late Thu ngt into Fri morn as llvl winds remain
from the S from the Gulf Maine with mild ovrngt lows. Weak
s/wvs from the Great Lks topping the mean upper ridge ovr the
region will bring msly aftn shwrs to the region Fri aft hi temps
msly in the 60s, with isold tstms possible ovr NW ptns of the
region with weak SBCAPE and/or elevated CAPE. Shwrs should move
E of the region and end across the region Fri eve behind a weak
cold front with partial clrg to region late Fri ngt and slightly
cooler ovrngt lows.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Msly unsettled conditions will cont thru the long term.

Models differ with regard to shwr potential for Sat, with the
00z opnl GFS indicating an upper lvl s/sw crossing the region by
Sat aftn from srn QB, resulting in shwrs, spcly for the N, while
the opnl ECMWF and CanGem models have less emphasis on this
system and msly dry conditions. The blend of these solutions
result in low chc msly aftn shwr PoPs across mainly Nrn ptns of
the region. After the passage of the s/wv E of our region Sat
eve, a secondary cold front will bring cooler ovrngt lows
Sat ngt and hi temps on Sun with msly fair skies with sfc hi
pres ridging behind the front from Cntrl Can.

Longer range models then fall back into the agreement for Sun
ngt in showing increasing cldnss for the region ahead of the
next low pres from the Srn Rockies and intermittent rn/shwrs
from the same system as it moves acoss the Great lks into QB
prov Mon and Tues. Temps will be on the cool side thru these
ptns of the fcst due to llvl damming of cool air as the warm
front becomes stationary just S of ME.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Widespread IFR/LIFR flight conditions are expected
through tonight in rain today and in low clouds, areas of fog
and drizzle tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Msly MVFR clgs/vsbys by day and IFR
clgs/vsbys by ngt and erly morn in patchy fog/dz from erly Thu
morn thru Fri across our TAF sites. Conditions should msly
improve to VFR Fri ngt and cont Sat and Sun.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will continue to increase to small craft
advisory levels today. Small craft advisory conditions, mainly
for seas are expected tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Msly SCA wv hts or marginal wind gusts will
prevail across our MZs thru these ptns of the fcst. Went with
about 90 percent of WW3 guidance for fcst wv hts this update.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The highest astronomical tides of the month are expected over
the next several days in conjunction with a new moon Thursday.
Meanwhile near shore wave heights are expected to build
Wednesday Night. At the current time the combination of waves
and astronomical tide do not appear sufficient to produce any
significant runup and overtopping, although some minor beach
erosion is possible. This is supported by experimental runup
guidance. In addition wind speeds over the next several days do
not appear strong enough to produce any coastal flooding.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

Near Term...Duda/MCW
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Duda/MCW/VJN
Marine...Duda/MCW/VJN
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Duda


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