Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 262218
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
618 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MID
WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
618 PM UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON IS PULLING AWAY, AND CLOUDS HAVE
NOW CLEARED OUT JUST ABOUT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. IT WILL BE A
CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS MORE TYPICAL OF MARCH THAN
LATE APRIL, AND LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND IN THE BROAD VALLEYS OF THE NORTH WOODS MAY
DROP INTO THE TEENS. MADE SOME CHANGE TO THE SKY GRIDS AND REMOVED
POPS/QPF BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL ZONES INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SNOW WILL CHANGE BACK TO OCCASIONAL RAIN AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES
LIGHTER EARLY THIS EVENING....EVENTUALLY ENDING. WILL BASE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE AS AIR ALOFT IS VERY
COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC AND A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKERS FOR MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH NRN MAINE BRINGING THE CHANGE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WINDGUST
BY FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERSISTENT DEEP UPPER LOW WHICH PLAGUED NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK
WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND.  THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE TROUGHING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE 12Z GFS BRINGS SOME MOISTURE/LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...HOWEVER THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP PROBABILITIES BELOW MENTION IN DAYS 6 AND 7
OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS KBHB INTO EARLY EVENING...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
SITES...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL BRING TROUGHS
THROUGH NRN MAINE BRINGING WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWER ACROSS
FVE...CAR...AND PQI. DURING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR DURING SN SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR WAVES: CURRENTLY PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS FROM EAST
NORTHEASTERLY WIND WAVE WITH A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELL GROUP. EXPECT WIND WAVE TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER IN DAY WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW.


SHORT TERM: AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WINDS WILL BE NEAR SCA
CRITERIA...HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE A SCA. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/MIGNONE/NORTON
MARINE...CB/MIGNONE/NORTON


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