Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCAR 261345
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
945 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MAINE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A VERY DYNAMIC AND FLUID SITUATION CONTINUES WITH THE
RISK OF HEAVY RAINS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. FLOODING
HAS BEEN REPORTED IN WASHINGTON COUNTY FROM HEAVY RAINS EARLIER
THIS MORNING. ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A VERY SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A STRONG UPPER JET IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED BY CURRENT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS INDICATED BY AIRCRAFT REPORTS. A STRONG
LLJ...PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES...A DEEP WARM LAYER...AND DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALL ADD UP TO A COMBUSTIBLE MIXTURE
FOR EASTERN MAINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE FOR THIS PACKAGE AS THE THREATS WERE IDENTIFIED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE TASK AT THIS POINT IS MONITORING
FLOODING SITUATIONS AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT TODAY. DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN ANY ISOLATED TSTMS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL ALSO
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 DOWN
EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
WITH NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR A FEW SPRINKLES DOWN
EAST. AS THE AIR MASS COOLS ALOFT THERE MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTH.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND A SFC HIGH
BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THE SKY WILL BECOME CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY.  IT WILL BE COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH TEMPS LIKELY
TO DROP INTO THE 40S IN THE NW VALLEYS WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY DOWN EAST WITH
SUNSHINE TO MIX WITH SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS IN THE NORTH. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN MAINE AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA MAINLY DRY WITH JUST THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE. THE GFS
PULLS MORE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH WITH A SFC WAVE IN THE
MIDWEST, AND HAS A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
AN UPPER RIDGE WITH HIGH HEIGHTS BECOME DOMINATE AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS WE CLOSE
OUT AUGUST AND START SEPTEMBER.

THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS FOR WEEK TWO FROM THE CPC...CFSV2...AND
HEMISPHERIC MODELS WOULD POINT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS IN
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN EARLY EVENING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTMS OTHERWISE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS WITH SOME POCKETS
OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN SCT -SHRA. VFR EXPECTED THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MVFR IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUN IF SHOWERS END UP
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR
LESS AT TIMES INTO THIS EVENING IN AREAS OF FOG. SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE AIR MASS TURNS
MORE HUMID AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WATERS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AUGUST ARE RUNNING 4.6 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE AT CARIBOU AND 2.9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT BANGOR.
THIS WILL BE ONLY THE 2ND MONTH THIS YEAR WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.