Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 230801
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
401 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this afternoon and will be
followed by high pressure for Sunday into Monday morning. Another
cold front will cross the area Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Models are a little further S with the track of the next s/wv movg
ESE from QB into Cntrl and Srn ME. Subsequently, the potential of
re-newed shwrs and tstms for our FA this aftn into erly eve will
be greatest ovr the middle and srn two thirds of the FA where we
go with likely PoPs, and lesser chc PoP across the N and even only
slgt chc across the St John Vly. With lower fzls and low 0-6km
bulk shears, the primary enhanced tstms element threats will be
hail and heavy rn. Hi temps this aftn will be cooler than ystdy by
5 to 10 deg F, with cnvctv initiation being helped by cooling
Alf. Max aftn SBCAPES will range from about 300 J/kg ovr the St
John Vly to about 1200 J/kg ovr the far SW ptns of our FA.

Shwrs and tstms should diminish and/or move E of the FA aft mid
eve with the passage of the upper trof E of the region and the
loss of dytm htg, with at least prtly clrg late tngt. Ovrngt lows
Sat ngt should be cooler then this current ngt by about 5 deg F,
with enough NW grad wind to prevent patchy late ngt fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will build into the region Sunday with dry weather
and a partly to mostly sunny sky. The humidity levels will be
moderate by mid to late July standards. Highs will range from the
upper 70s in the north to the mid 80s in the Greater Bangor
Region. Dry and comfortable Sun night with lows in the 50s north
to around 60 Downeast. Low pressure will move into western Quebec
Monday and a pre-frontal trough will move into western Maine
during the afternoon with the chance of showers and thunderstorms.
It will become a little more humid with highs in the low 80s
north to the mid-upper 80s Downeast. A sea breeze will keep
temperatures cooler along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front associated with the low in Qubec will cross the
area Monday night with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
front is expected to push off the Downeast coast Tuesday morning
with any showers ending. A mid to upper level trough could touch
off an isolated shower through mid afternoon across the Crown of
maine. Dry and relatively comfortable humidity levels for the
middle of the week. The next cold front will approach Thursday
with an increase in humidity and the chance of an afternoon shower
or thunderstorm. There are timing differences between the models
and model ensembles with the passage of the cold front late week
and it remains uncertain as to whether it pushes through Thu
night or Friday. There will be the chance of showers and storms,
but if the front can push through Thu night, Friday could be
mainly dry and turn less humid.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: msly VFR xpctd at the TAF sites tdy and tngt. xcptns
will be brief MVFR and IFR erly this morn in patchy fog and tstms
and heavier shwrs this aftn into erly eve.

SHORT TERM: VFR Sun into Monday with MVFR or short duration IFR in
showers and storms Mon night into early Tue. VFR expected Tue
into Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Will let the SCA for haz seas for our outer waters cont
thru this update, but xpct to end it by the next update prior to
7am, with buoy obs from Jonesport and Ern ME shelf already
showing obsvd wv hts subsiding to arnd 5 ft. Aftwrds, winds and
seas will remain below SCA thresholds thru the remainder of tdy
and thru tngt. Again, we only went with about 75 percent of WW3
guidance for fcst wv hts thru the near term.

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through the middle of next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT this
     morning for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...VJN/CB
Marine...VJN/CB



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