Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 212226
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
626 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this evening. High pressure
will cross the region Thursday. A warm front then lifts across
the region Friday, followed by another cold front Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
625 pm update...
What`s left of the shower activity across far northern Maine is
quickly diminishing early this evening and skies have become
partly cloudy across most of the area attm. The cold front was
approaching the western Maine/QB border and will slide across
the region overnight with cooler and drier continuing to
overspread the region.

Only minor changes made to lower pops a bit quicker through
early evening. Otherwise, adjusted hrly temps and dew points
based on observed conditions. No changes made to forecast low
temps. On the coastal waters, seas continue to decrease and have
cancelled the small craft advisory.

previous discussion
The band of showers and thunderstorms that crossed the region
today, producing gusty winds and small hail, will move into New
Brunswick by this evening. The cold front still lies across
eastern Quebec, as evidenced by the dewpoint gradient, and this
will slide by overnight. A few showers will be possible during
the early evening hours, mainly across the North Woods, until
this front moves through; any lingering precipitation will come
to an end thereafter as drier air works in behind the front.
Lows will range from the upper 40s across the upper St John
Valley to the mid 50s Downeast.

Thursday will be dry with plenty of sunshine. Highs will range from
the lower 70s across the Allagash region to the upper 70s in
interior Downeast. Winds will be a bit breezy out of the west with
gusts 20-25 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Concern for potentially heavy rain Friday into Friday night.
System approaching from the west appears to tap into some
moisture from Cindy. Believe that best shot at heavier rain will
be in north/northwest portions of the forecast area due to
better dynamics, but still a good amount of uncertainty as to
how things evolve. Good news is that the heavy rain threat
doesn`t last any more than 12 to 18 hours as a cold front moves
through late Friday night or Saturday morning, shunting the
deeper moisture off to our southeast. Could be isolated to
scattered showers leftover for Saturday, but won`t be an all-day washout
by any means. Behind the front for Saturday, temperatures still
look fairly warm with highs in the 70s to low 80s, but it will
be less muggy than Friday and Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Looking at a trough stretching from the Great Lakes into New
England through early next week. This will keep things fairly
unsettled with temperatures close to average. Too hard to
pinpoint timing of exact systems, but it appears most days
Sunday through Wednesday will feature a chance of showers, with
the better shot at precipitation being in afternoon/evening
hours.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Local MVFR conditions will be possible through 22z
Wednesday in scattered showers, especially at the northern
terminals. Otherwise, VFR will prevail as a cold front will
cross the region tonight, ushering in drier air and clearing
skies.


SHORT TERM: Likelihood of a period of IFR conditions with the
next weather system Friday into Friday night. Then improving to
mainly VFR for the weekend, although any afternoon/evening
showers could bring lower conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will generally remain below small craft
advisory levels through Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Looks like a period of small craft conditions late
Friday into Friday night with the next weather system. Over the
weekend after the flow switches from onshore to parallel or
slightly offshore, expect conditions to be just below small
craft levels.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/Hastings
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Duda/Hastings/Foisy
Marine...Duda/Hastings/Foisy



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