Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 221136
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
636 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS SHOWING AN IMPROVEMENT AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING E AND THINNING OUT. FURTHER S
TO THE DOWNEAST REGION, HIGH CLOUDS HOLDING IN W/LOW PRES
PULLING AWAY. TEMPERATURES DID DROP BACK ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N
AND W AS SOME SITES ARE RUNNING NEAR -15F W/A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE. THE 12Z CAR RAOB SHOWS THIS STRONG INVERSION THIS MORNING.
THE INVERSION IS FORECAST TO HANG ON THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN
FINALLY BREAK W/TEMPERATURE EXPECTED TO WARM UP.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY W/READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE MID
TO UPPER 20S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED W/THE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES EARLY AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED AS A DISTURBANCE APCHS FROM THE W. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
SHOW THIS FEATURE W/SOME STRONG VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK WAA IN
THE LLVLS IS ALSO NOTED. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE W/BRINGING
SOME LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE
MOISTURE IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. THE CANADIAN GEM SUPPORTS THIS
FEATURE BUT KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE W OF MAINE-QUEBEC
BORDER. USED A CONSENSUS APCH AND DELAYED THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
TIL SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE, W/THIS SETUP, THINKING HERE IS
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE FAR N AND
W BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE 5
TO 10 DEGREES W/LESS CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN MAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS QUEBEC AND MAINE.
THE FORECAST FOCUS THEN SHIFTS SOUTH ON SATURDAY TO AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
START TO SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS OUR DOWNEAST ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH ALONG THE
COASTLINE TO RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST RAIN. HOWEVER ABOUT
10 MILES IN FROM THE COAST THE PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BASED ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS...EXCLUDING THE
GFS...ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM QUEBEC WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED CHILLY
TEMPERATURES TO THE CWA DURING THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. THE CAVEAT
TO THIS IS THAT A MVFR DECK COULD SET UP LATER TONIGHT AFTER 02Z
AS SOME MOISTURE COULD GET TRAPPED BELOW 2K FT. ATTM, DECIDED TO
CARRY SCT015 FROM KBGR NORTHWARD TO COVER FOR THIS POTENTIAL. THE
LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL FURTHER IF NEEDED.

SHORT TERM: LIGHT SNOW MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO OUR FCST
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY DOWNEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FOR THIS TERM. LOW PRES PASSING WELL S AND
E OF THE REGION WILL BRING SOME HIGHER WAVES INTO OUR WATERS BUT
BELOW 6 FT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL TOP OUT NEAR 20 KTS AND THIS
WILL BE ACROSS ZONE052 W/A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS EARLY TODAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT TO 10 KTS AND 3 FT RESPECTIVELY AS
HIGH PRES RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM
SYSTEM TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...HEWITT/BERDES
MARINE...HEWITT/BERDES



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