Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 141429
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
929 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west today and crest just
north of the area tonight into Monday. High pressure will begin
to slide east of the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 am update...
Quick update to ingest temps and dwpts but no chgs needed at
this time as 1042mb sfc high builds in fm the west.

Prev discussion blo...
Some low stratus lingers across northern areas and parts of the
Penobscot valley early this morning and a few flurries can be
spotted on radar. High pressure building in from the west will
bring clearing today with a sunny and cold afternoon expected.
A clear sky is expected tonight as high pressure crests across
the northern part of the state. Calm air and clear skies will
allow temperatures to fall into the teens below over the north
and within a few degrees of zero Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Continued chilly w/daytime temps below normal for Monday. High
pres n of the state will continue to provide dry air to much of
the region. The exception will be along the coast as low pres
passing well e of the region will deliver a glancing shot of
snow to the immediate coast and outer islands. All the short
range guidance including the NAM/GFS and GEM support this
scenario as does the latest ECMWF. The NAM and ECMWF as most
aggressive if you want to call it that w/bringing a few
hundreths(0.03) to the aforementioned areas. The GFS and GEM
deliver trace amounts of QPF. The precip will be in the form of
snow. Attm, decided on 20-30% pops for the immediate coast and
eastern Washington County. Any accumulation expected to be
trace amounts.

The snow pulls away later Monday night w/skies becoming partly
cloudy. It will be a cold night as temps will most likely drop
below 0F across the northern and western areas w/5-10F
elsewhere. High pres will re-establish itself n of the state
providing some sunshine for at least part of the day. Daytime
temps will moderate to near normal readings for mid-January.
Clouds will increase across the region during the afternoon as
low pres apchs from the Great Lakes. More on this system in long
term section below.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some snow is expected for portions of the region Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

All the long range guidance now coming in line w/showing low
pres moving in from the Great Lakes and a second low developing
in the vicinity of Long Island. This low is then forecast to
lift nne Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The ECMWF and
GFS track the low across Nova Scotia. This track would bring a
decent snowfall to the Downeast and eastern 3rd of Maine. The
Canadian Global is further s and e and keeps the bulk of the
offshore. A number of the ensembles of the ECMWF and GFS
support their operational runs. Confidence is high enough to
boost pops to 60-80% for east-central areas which includes the
Bangor and Calais region. Further n, decided to bring high
chance(50%) pops as far n as Northern Aroostook County. Attm,
this event looks like it could bring 3-7 inches of snow to the
east-central areas w/the highest amounts across the Washington
County region. Further n and w, less snowfall. This appears to
be a fast moving system w/an open upper level wave. The low is
forecast to pull east of the area by Thursday morning w/high
pres ridging in from the southern states. The airmass behind the
system is not that cold w/daytime temps Thursday into Friday
averaging slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions in some patchy low stratus can be
expected across the north early this morning. Otherwise, high
pressure building in from the west is expected to bring VFR
conditions across the area today and tonight.

SHORT TERM: MVFR possible for KBHB and KHUL for Tuesday and the
potential for some light snow early. The rest of the region
looks to be VFR until later Tuesday night as clouds move into
the region and cigs drop to MVFR. Conditions look like they will
deteriorate to IFR by Wednesday morning and possibly LIFR w/snow
mainly from KHUL on s as low pres moves nne across the Gulf of
Maine. Further n, from KPQI to KFVE conditions are forecast to
be MVFR. This all hinges on a track of the low across Nova
Scotia as referenced above. A track further n and w would be
conditions down to IFR/LIFR all the way to KFVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA for north to northeast winds will have to be
extended through tonight for the offshore waters as high
pressure slides well north of the coast. A freezing spray
advisory for moderate freezing spray will be needed from late
this evening into Monday morning.

SHORT TERM: Conditions look like they will below SCA levels
w/winds 10-15 kts and seas 3-4 ft into Tuesday night. Conditions
look like they will deteriorate to SCA levels by Wednesday night
into Thursday w/low pres passing forecast to pass across Nova
Scotia. We are talking ne winds of 15-20 kts and gusts 25-30 kt
along w/seas building to 6-8 ft.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ050>052.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/Farrar
Short Term...Hewitt
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...Bloomer/Farrar/Hewitt
Marine...Bloomer/Farrar/Hewitt



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