Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 270810
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
410 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WITH IT COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE NORTH OF JAMES BAY LATER TODAY THEN MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC
PROVINCE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS LOW WILL APPROACH THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THIS TODAY OR
TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP POPS AT ZERO. FOR SKY CONDITIONS HAVE USED
MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLENDED THE GFS AND ECMWF. BASE ON
LATEST VERIFICATION WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT AND THE BIAS CONSENSUS MOS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ONE MORE WARM, NEAR RECORD SETTING DAY COMING UP FOR SUNDAY AND
THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY AND LASTING INTO
LATE WEEK.

HIGH PRES WILL BE SE OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND 925MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO REACH 18-20C WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AOA RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 28TH. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MAKE ITS APPROACH TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON W/INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT W/SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED W/THE FROPA. MOST OF THE QPF IS
SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS AND EVEN THE ECMWF TO BE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT W/DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY 40-50%
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE INTERESTING PART TO THIS FORECAST IS THAT THE SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE S ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY W/HIGH
PRES NOSING DOWN FROM CANADA. A DECENT AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IS
FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION & GOOD UPPER SUPPORT. DECIDED TO GO
W/HIGH CHANCE(50-60%) POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.
THE SETUP LOOKS TO BE AN OVERRUNNING EVENT W/ENE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND SSW ALOFT. THIS WILL MEAN SHOWERS/RAIN INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ATTM DECIDED TO KEEP QPF NO HIGHER THAN 0.10-0.20" AND LET
THE DAYCREW ASSESS FURTHER TODAY W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE LEAST 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THEY
HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE ENE WINDS ON MONDAY WILL ADD A
DAMP CHILL TO THE LATE SEPTEMBER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM QUEBEC
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL W/READINGS
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
WHILE DOWNEAST IS EXPECTED TO SEE LOWER 60S.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT UNFOLDS FROM THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND DRIFT NNE.
THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS SYSTEM BRINGING SOME
RAIN TO THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS IS STILL A
WAYS OUT AND DECIDED TO STAY W/LOW CHANCE POPS(20-30%). THERE IS PLENTY
OF TIME TO ASSESS THIS FURTHER AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE POSSIBLE EVENT.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SOUTH THIS MORING DUE TO PATCHY
FOG... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT


SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AND THEN EXPANDING DOWN ACROSS KBGR
AND KBHB BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS COULD SEE VFR
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE KBGR AND KBHB COULD HANG ON TO MVFR
RIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE DUE TO AN ENE FLOW
SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL USE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES: WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING EXPECT LIGHT WINDS SO WAVES DOMINATED BY
INCOMING LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP FROM SOUTH
1-2 FEET/ 7-8 SECONDS WITH SECONDARY GROUP FROM SOUTHEAST 1
FOOT/9-10 SECONDS.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE WATERS AND NE WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE
FRONT. DECIDED TO GO W/SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND GUSTS TO 25
KTS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD AS WELL TO NEAR SCA LEVELS. AFTER
COLLABORATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO BOOST THE SEAS UP TO 6 FT FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT








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