Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 300225 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will slowly move off the coast tonight. Low pressure tracking along the front will pass south of the Gulf of Maine late tonight. High pressure will build across the region over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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1030 PM Update: Latest analysis showed cold front aligned right along the coast. Areas of dense fog have set up along the coast w/a light se wind. Fog looks like it will persist overnight into the morning hrs w/the dense fog along the coast. Carried areas of fog for downeast including Bangor, Bar Harbor into Machias. Will monitor this region of possible Advisory if conditions continue to deteriorate. Elsewhere, patchy fog w/skies starting to clear out. It will cooler and drier n & w of the downeast and coast. Adjusted the temps/dewpoints to the current conditions. Collaborated w/the NERFC to pull back QPF as showers across Washington County have moved out of that area. Previous Discussion... A weak s/wv trof alf from SE QB will cross the region this eve. Sct shwrs and tstms ovr msly Downeast ME ahead of this system will will weaken and move E into NB prov this eve. Until then, we keep enhanced small hail and hvy rnfl wording til 6 pm. Otherwise, clrg skies will work NW to SE across the FA ovrngt as fair NW sfc pres grad works even into Downeast ptns of the region. We kept the mention of patchy vly fog for ptns of the region, but there may be enough llvl dry advcn to negate any fog, spcly nrn ptns of the FA. Aft slightly abv avg low temps, Sat should be pleasant, drier, and a little cooler across the all of the region as Can sfc hi pres ridges toward the region, with near normal hi temps.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will build in from the northwest Saturday Night into Sunday then move to the east of the region late Sunday into Monday. Showers are possible, especially in southwestern areas, later Monday as high pressure weakens allowing moisture to move up from the south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will strengthen over the northeast Tuesday Night into Wednesday while at the same time a cold front will approach Northern Maine. This will result in drying conditions across the south while daytime showers are possible across the northern portion of the State. Showers are expected to persist across the Northern portion of Maine from Wednesday through Friday. A cold front will then approach the State from the west later Friday. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR tonight and Saturday, exceptions being brief MVFR vsbys with tstms and heavier shwrs erly this eve ovr downeast sites and patchy fog late tngt into erly Sat morn ovr low rvr vly or bay TAF sites, spcly KBHB SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Sunday. MVFR conditions are possible Monday. MVFR conditions are possible KBGR and KBHB Monday Night. MVFR conditions are possible KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, and KHUL Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain well below SCA thresholds tngt and Sat. Primary short 5 sec pd wvs late this aftn transition to longer 8 to 9 sec swell this eve as sfc winds become off shore behind a weak cold front, then shorten to 7 sec by late Sat aftn as winds become lgt and vrbl and even slightly on shore. Kept within 80 to 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts. SHORT TERM: Will use the NAM12 for sustained winds Saturday Night through Tuesday then transition to the Super Blend Winds. For Waves: Have initialized the grids with the Near Shore Wave Model (NWPS) through Tuesday then transition to the Wave Watch III. With light winds (under 10 knots) expected through Wednesday, the primary wave system will be long period swell. Since NWPS boundary conditions conditions (Wave Watch III), continue to exhibit a slightly high bias will lower combined wave heights by one foot through Wednesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt Short Term... Long Term... Aviation...Hewitt/ Marine...Hewitt/

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