Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 301315 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 915 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will cross the region today. A cold front will move across the area tonight and will be followed by another cold front during the day Tuesday. High pressure builds across the area Wednesday into Thursday. Another weather system will cross northern New England Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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905 AM update...The warm front is lifting across the state this morning, and its associated band of showers will continue to cross the region as well. Once this first batch of precipitation moves through, our focus becomes the potential for convection this afternoon, particularly in the North Woods down toward the Moosehead region. There`s plenty of shear availble for organized storms, with 0-6km Bulk Shear progged to be around 40 kt. The question will be one of instability, which will depend heavily on how much sunshine is able to break through the cloud cover. There is clearing seen to our west on visible satellite, and with dewpoints rising into the lower to mid 60s on the other side of the front, would expect to see storms pop up by mid afternoon where solar heating is able to take place. Have adjusted pops to match current radar trends, but kept the mention of gusty winds and small hail in the forecast. Any SBCAPE would be modest, maxing out around 800 J/kg, but given the amount of shear, would not be surprised to see a few strong to possibly severe storms develop this afternoon, mainly in the far northwest. The latest SPC Day 1 outlook matches this thinking, keeping areas north and west of a Houlton to Augusta line in a Marginal Risk. Previous discussion...A warm front will lift north across the region today. A few showers can be expected ahead of the front this morning. The concern later today will be with regard to the convective potential, which will be dependent on how much clearing we see this afternoon. Looks like the best chance for thunderstorms will be across the northern Maine woods and Piscataquis county which stands the best chance of seeing breaks in the clouds. The nam continues to be more robust with its surface based cape forecast of 500-1000J. The GFS is much more conservative,generally less than 500J. The 0-6 km shear is about 40 kt, so if storms develop there could be some organization. Decided to mention enhanced wording for gusty winds and small hail across the western zones this afternoon. Noted that the Storm Prediction Center does have much of northern Maine in a marginal risk for severe today. A weak cold front will move across the region this evening but the air mass is only slightly drier behind the front. There could be a few lingering showers or isolated thunderstorms across northern areas early this evening, otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight along with patchy fog. Lows tonight will remain on the mild side with temperatures generally in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper trough digging into central Quebec at 12Z Tuesday will move across Maine Tuesday afternoon, and will push a cold front across the region. This will produce a few showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Drier air follows Tue night and Wed as a sfc high builds into the region and crests over Maine Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures Wed will be seasonable for the start of June with highs in the mid to upper 60s in far northern Maine to the lower 70s for interior Downeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term starts dry and pleasant, and becomes increasingly unsettled as the weekend approaches. High pressure slowly moves east of the area Thursday as low pressure and an upper trough approach from the west. As the flow turns onshore Thu night into Fri expect there will be some marine stratus that will be advected north. As a weather system moves in from the west later Thu night and Fri the threat of showers will be on the increase. A positive PNS/Negative NAO pattern expected by next weekend with strong western Conus ridging and a downstream trough across the Great lakes and Northeast U.S. This will produce an unsettled pattern with more clouds than sun next weekend, and the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely be seasonable, but highly depended on the amount of cloud cover. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Widespread MVFR and IFR conditions can be expected across the area this morning in low ceilings and patchy fog. LIFR can be expected KBGR/KBHB early this morning in areas of fog. Expect conditions to improve to improve to VFR this afternoon all terminals, but marine stratus may hold at KBHB most of the day with IFR conditions possible into the afternoon. An isolated tstm cant be ruled out late this afternoon at the northern terminals, but confidence is low so will not mention in the TAF yet. Expect VFR/MVFR conditions tonight across the north and IFR in developing fog/stratus at KBGR/KBHB. SHORT TERM: mvfr with brief ifr in Scattered showers and thunderstorms at the terminals Tuesday afternoon. VFR expected to return to the terminals Tuesday night and continue into Thursday evening. IFR ceilings may develop Thursday night or Friday morning as the flow turns onshore and stratus develops, especially at the DownEast terminals. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Expect visibility to be reduced to 10 to 3nm in fog and showers through tonight. SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels for the most part Tuesday through Friday. The seas on the coastal waters may approach 5 feet Tuesday. Areas of fog are likely on the waters later Thursday night and Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda/Hastings Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Duda/Hastings/CB Marine...Duda/Hastings/CB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.