Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 060415 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1115 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure across the Gulf of Maine will move southeast overnight. High pressure will build in from the west on Tuesday and crest over the area Tuesday night. A weak area of low pressure will track to our northwest Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Update... Weak low pressure across the Gulf of Maine will move southeast overnight with a trof extending back toward the Downeast coast. Light snow will diminish through the early morning hours with any additional accumulations less than an inch. Otherwise, with lingering low level moisture, expect skies to remain mostly cloudy across the forecast area overnight. Overnight low temperatures will range from around 10 to the upper teens north, to the lower to mid 20s Downeast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with overnight temperatures, cloud cover and snow chances. Previous Discussion... Tuesday will remain mostly to partly cloudy over the north where low stratus is likely to linger. Downeast, however, skies should become mostly clear by late in the day on Tuesday as high pressure builds in. Winds will be light on Tuesday with high pressure building over the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Some moderation in the airmass expected this term with some snow showers or light snow. High pres is expected to slide to the e Tuesday night w/waa underway overnight w/some high cloudiness moving in. A setup such as this one being advertised can lead to some colder temps than what the guidance is touting especially in the low lying areas. Colder air in the blyr can get trapped beneath the developing llvl inversion. Therefore, decided to undercut overnight lows Tuesday night by a few degrees given this potential. Low pres moving across James Bay in Canada will bring a warm front across the region during the day on Wednesday. LLVL convergence combined w/some mid level forcing will lead to a period of light snow breaking out during the day. The best support will be across the w and nw region of the CWA. Any snow accumulation expected to be an inch or less w/this feature. The associated cold front is forecast to make its move toward the region from Canada later Wednesday night into Thursday. A pre-frontal trof is forecast to slide across the region in advance of the cold front on Thursday setting off some snow showers. The actual cold front is shown by the the NAM/GFS and ECMWF to bring a round of heavier snow showers or perhaps snow squalls w/caa. The NAM is most prominent w/the snow squall potential for late Thursday afternoon into the evening. Confidence on this potential is low and attm, decided to stay w/snow showers for the wx element an hold w/40% pops. AOA normal temps expected for Thursday before the caa kicks in. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Much colder air expected later this week into the weekend. A secondary cold front and its associated upper trof expected to slide across the region on Friday with some more snow showers and a decent nw wind. Something to be noted here is the cold nw flow coming off the open St. Lawrence on Friday which would lead to some streamers of snow especially across the nw and St. John Valley and Allagash region. Daytime temps will be near normal for early December w/readings dropping off by 4 pm. The weekend will be a cold one as a piece of very cold arctic air moves into the region from Canada. We are talking below normal temperatures right through Sunday w/daytime temps not getting out of the teems across the northern 1/2 of the CWA while central and downeast areas only see readings in the lower/mid 20s. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Variable conditions, ranging from VFR to IFR, will occur across the region overnight. VFR/MVFR ceilings are expected Tuesday morning, with VFR conditions Tuesday afternoon. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions expected later Tuesday night into Wednesday w/snow showers or light snow. A period of MVFR for all the terminals on Wednesday w/a continuation of snow showers or light snow. Conditions are forecast to drop back to IFR especially w/the cigs by Thursday morning w/a cold front set to move across the region. Some improvement to MVFR by later Thursday night across the northern terminals, but snow showers still a threat. KBGR and KBHB look to improve to VFR right into Friday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Wind/seas are generally expected to remain below small craft advisory levels overnight through Tuesday. However, a few wind gusts could approach small craft advisory levels late tonight into early Tuesday. Visibilities will be reduced in light rain/snow tonight. SHORT TERM: Pretty quiet into Thursday night w/sw winds of 10 kt or so becoming w. Wave heights will averaging 2-3 ft. Winds are expected to increase on Friday and become nw a cold front slide across the waters. Conditions have the potential to hit SCA criteria of a solid 25 kts w/gust potential to 30+ kts. Much colder air moving across the rather warm Gulf of Maine waters could allow for some freezing spray especially Friday night into Saturday morning. The offshore winds will keeps wave heights down to 3-4 ft.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Norcross/Hewitt Marine...Norcross/Hewitt

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