Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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346 FXUS61 KCAR 191008 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 608 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A moist air mass will remain across the region today and tonight. A slow moving frontal system will cross the area tonight. High pressure will build south of the area Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6:08 am Update...Most of the shower activity has moved out of the CWA with just a few showers along the coast of Washington County and in southern Aroostook County. There are plenty of low clouds across the cwa with patchy fog and drizzle. The main update was to lower the PoPs across much of the area this morning and to add in some spotty drizzle. Otherwise, only minor tweaks based on the latest observations. Previous discussion... The region will be in a moist air mass today. The 00z KCAR sounding was nearly saturated from 850-500H with a precipitable H20 of 1.43", and little change in the air mass is expected today. A weak wave of low pressure along the coast will continue to produce some showers across southeast portions of the CWA through early this morning, but the heavy rain has remained offshore. An occluded front will approach from the west this afternoon and may provide the focus for a few showers across the western zones, especially late in the day. The clouds may thin out a bit during the afternoon across the western zones, which could lead to just enough instability for an isolated thunderstorm. The front comes through tonight with a partly to mostly cloudy sky and a few scattered showers.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Any lingering showers Sunday morning will quickly diminish by midday as the departing short waves exits east into the maritimes. Expect skies to become partly to mostly sunny by afternoon as an area of high pressure builds east toward the region. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 70s north to around 80 down east. Expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies Sunday night with lows ranging from the mid to upper 50s across the region. Monday is shaping up as a very warm warm day as high pressure slided to our south. H925 temperatures are forecast to climb to around 22c across portions of northern and central Maine on a west wind. This will result in afternoon high temperatures reaching well above normal levels for this time of year. Highs on Monday are expected to be in the low to mid 80s across much of the region under mainly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front will slowly approach the region from the northwest Monday night through Tuesday. Expect the chance for showers across northern areas later Monday night and Tuesday in advance of the approaching front. There will also be a slight chance of thunderstorms. A wave of low pressure is expected to move northeast along the approaching front Tuesday night into Wednesday with showers likely along with the chance for thunderstorms. The front will slowly cross the region Wednesday night with the chance for showers. High pressure will build toward the region Thursday through Friday with mainly dry weather expected, although with upper level low pressure remaining to our north couldn`t rule out an isolated shower. High temperatures are expected to be above normal Tuesday and Wednesday and then fall to near, or even a bit below normal by Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: LIFR to IFR ceilings this morning in low stratus and patchy fog. Conditons will improve a bit this afternoon to low end MVFR, but will likely lower back to IFR again tonight. SHORT TERM: Mainly VFR conditions Sunday through Monday. A slow moving cold front approaching from the west Tuesday through Wednesday will result in the chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday with possible MVFR conditions. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: The small craft advisory was transitioned to a small craft advisory for hazardous seas for the coastal waters only as the wind has diminished early this morning. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels Sunday through Monday. Seas may build to around 6 feet by mid week.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>051.
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&& $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...CB/Duda Marine...CB/Duda

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