Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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037 FXUS61 KCAR 300447 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1247 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION TO BRING AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE. CURRENT PATTERN: DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. HEADING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ENSURING A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS EAST COAST TROUGHING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING TO A LOCATION IN THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...DO EXPECT THAT WE/LL MAKE IT THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY DRY WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AND END...AS A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. INITIAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE /0.5-0.75"/ AND WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING INITIALLY ALSO NOT STRONG...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. CERTAINLY A MUCH WARMER NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO IT/S EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH /ECMWF STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/. FEEL THAT THIS IS THE BEST THREAT OF BONA-FIDE RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY FOR DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS. A MORE ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF SCENARIO /0.5-0.75"/...AND THE EC DOES HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST POPS FOR MONDAY /AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT/. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO /EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS/...BUT IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CLOSE WITH T8S BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE COAST. CERTAINLY A RAW/DAMP DAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IN THE FORM OF A REX BLOCK CENTERED CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS HELPING TO HALT ANY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS CURRENT THEME IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE FORECAST AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK WILL FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM AND POLAR AIRMASSES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY SPELLING A PERIOD WITH AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE: STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DISAGREEMENT QUICKLY ENSUES WITH REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL BE AND WHETHER IT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS DISPARITY ISN`T THAT SURPRISING IN POTENTIAL CUT OFF LOW SCENARIOS....BUT DOES SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...THE IDEA OF TROUGHING IN THE EAST IS WELL-AGREED UPON. THE DETAILS... LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ONLY WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. DETAILS ON SPECIFICS LIKE QPF ARE CERTAINLY NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BOOST POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WHEN THE AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST. CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES GREATLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY. CERTAINLY AN ABOVE-CLIMO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH TROUGHING /AND PERHAPS A CUTOFF LOW/ REMAINING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GIVEN THE TROUGH LOCATION AND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR /AND POTENTIALLY IFR/ RESTRICTIONS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT BGR/BHB.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: THE NEXT THREAT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL COME ON MONDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN

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