Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
670 FXUS61 KCAR 250113 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 913 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak ridge of high pressure will prevail over the area overnight. An upper level trough of low pressure will remain to our west through early this week. The trough will lift out during the mid week period as high pressure builds to our south. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
9:13 PM Update...One cold front has pushed off the coast, but there is a secondary cold front across Quebec this evening. Scattered showers ahead of this front appear to be enhanced by a mid to upper level disturbance. The HRRR has a reasonable depiction of these showers, and the HRRR would have the last of them ending by around or just after midnight across the eastern zones. The main adjustment was to the PoP/Wx grids for the next few hours to account for these showers. Otherwise, only minor tweaks based on the latest observations. Previous discussion... Most of the shwrs have already moved out of the Rgn as of mid aftn as drier llvl air moves into Rgn from QB. Any isold shwrs should end by erly eve as a weak ridge of hi pres tries to exert some influence ovr the Rgn later tngt, allowing for clrg and and some radiational cooling ovr Nrn broad rvr vlys. Sun will begin fair, but then aftn clds and eventually mid to late aftn shwrs and a few tstms will develop as an upper trof/low from SE Ont begins to apch. With sig lower PWs and fast mid troposphere flow as evident by Corfidi vectors, rnfl potential will be less with fast moving shwrs and tstms than last ngt and this morning. Both lows tngt and hi temps Sun will be near seasonal norms.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Our weather pattern will remain a bit unsettled as the new week begins with a shallow trough of low pressure remaining to our west as weak disturbances track out of this trough and across our area. Some spotty showers and thunderstorms may be around Sunday evening as one disturbance and a weak surface trough move across the area. Another weak disturbance and surface trough will move through on Monday bringing another chance for spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best chances for showers Monday will be over the higher elevation to the west. Another slightly stronger disturbance will lift out of the trough and slide across the region late Monday night into Tuesday with a better chance for more showers. Some thunderstorms may form across central and interior Downeast locations along and just south of a weak surface boundary over the region Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper trough which will be to our west during the early week will lift out to our north on Wednesday. As it does, it will pull a weak cold front across the area bringing another chance for scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms. High pressure will build to our south during the mid-week period and warm, humid air pushing north around the high will push north against a frontal boundary dividing the warmer air to the south from cooler air to the north in eastern Canada. A low tracking along this front will bring a chance for rain late Thursday into Friday. High pressure dropping down from Canada may then bring drying for early next weekend. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: VFR xpctd all TAF sites xcpt briefly MVFR late this evening at the northern Taf sites in showers, and Sunday aftn in any tstm or heavier shwr. SHORT TERM: MVFR to VFR conditions are likely Sunday night into early Monday with VFR conditions likely Monday afternoon. Conditions may drop back to MVFR Monday night into early Tuesday, with localized IFR conditions in fog possible Downeast. Generally VFR to MVFR conditions are then likely Tuesday night into Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: The seas are still around 6 feet as of 9 PM, so will extend the small craft advisory for hazardous seas for our outer zones until 1 AM Sunday. Both the wind and seas should subside later tngt into Sun. Still some areas of dense fog over the waters, but that should see vast improvement later this evening as the cold front pushes offshore. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA Sunday night through early next week. Humid air over the cold waters will likely result in fog limiting visibilities at times through early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-051.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ Near Term...CB/VJN Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...CB/VJN/Bloomer Marine...CB/VJN/Bloomer

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.