Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 050217 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1017 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. COULD ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GENERALLY EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...THOUGH COULD LOCALLY HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER NORTHWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY. THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE AND INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A RUN TOWARD 80 DEGREES. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE LINE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH MONDAY. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY BUT SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH LATER MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA MON NIGHT, BRINGING A CHC POPS TO THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY THEN STALL ACROSS THE CWA AS ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW APPROACHES ACROSS SRN QUEBEC. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS POINT, WITH GFS ACTUALLY PUSHING A LOW & FRONT THRU THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED, WHILE THE EURO PULLS THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS THE LOW MOVES FM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LWR ST. LAWRENCE. DID LWR POPS A BIT TUE NIGHT INTO WED, BUT STILL KEPT CHC AND SLGT CHC POPS. BOTH FINALLY SHOW A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU WED NIGHT INTO THURS, SO DID BUMP UP POPS A BIT IN SOME AREAS. BOTH SHOW A WET END TO NEXT WEEK, BUT HAVE VERY DIFFERENT WAYS TO GET THERE. THE GFS IS VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FM THE GREAT LAKES BY FRI EVE. THE EURO HOLDS OFF ON THAT UNTIL THE WEEKEND, BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST, BUT DOES PUSH SOME MOISTURE UP THE COAST WITH A COASTAL LOW ON FRIDAY. WILL BEAR WATCHING TO SEE IF MODELS CONVERGE ON ONE OR THE OTHER SOLUTION. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AT KFVE...KCAR AND KPQI. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THIS PERIOD TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE (2 FT BUILDING 4 FT/4-6 SECONDS) SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL (1 FOOT/9-10 SECONDS) THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS DEW POINTS INCREASE.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE

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