Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 231855 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 255 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600. THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35 MPH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS. SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ003-004- 010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...MCW/BLOOMER MARINE...MCW/BLOOMER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.