Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290716 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 316 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NEAR CAPE BRETON WILL CONTINUE EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC TODAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. TODAY WILL BE A BRIGHT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE. TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE WILL BE TOP OUT CLOSE TO 70F. CLEAR MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS MAY GET DOWN TO AROUND 40F. A BIT OF PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING AND TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF GREENLAND. THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE CIRCULATING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND A BIT MORE HUMID ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE VERY WEAK INCLUDING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. RAINFALL ON SUNDAY SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE CIRCULATING ACROSS THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWERS MAY SHIFT SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN TO THE COAST. THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SOME MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEAK RIDGING COMBINED WITH A SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. DRY AIR CIRCULATING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY BREEZE AND MILD TEMPS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR TO SOUTH OF KHUL EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ON MONDAY AND REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON TODAY JUST BEYOND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 KT IN GUSTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER MARINE...CB/BLOOMER

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