Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 040714 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 214 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build across the region today and tonight. A weak trough of low pressure will cross the region Monday into Monday night, then high pressure resumes for Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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An upper shortwave will push east of the state early this morning, which will bring any lingering snow showers or flurries to an end shortly after daybreak. High pressure will follow, building into New England today and cresting over the region tonight. This will be a much cooler and drier airmass, which will serve to gradually erode cloud cover from south to north through the day today. Temperatures will remain on the cool side, topping out in the mid 20s in the north and the mid 30s south. Tonight will be the coldest we`ve seen so far this season. Given mostly clear skies, light winds, and fresh snowpack, lows in the single digits seem reasonable in the north. Further south, temperatures will bottom out in the teens, with the immediate coast staying around 20.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Below average temperatures and no significant weather systems Monday into Tuesday. A mid/upper level ridge across the area Monday morning is replaced by a trough by late day, which is followed by a building ridge Tuesday. A weak surface trough approaches from the southwest Mon morning may hold together enough to produce a few snow showers, mainly across the Down East region and perhaps across the far western zones. There is some hint that a vEry weak coastal low may try to form Monday afternoon, which might produce a period of light snow in parts of coastal Hancock County with accumulations of up to an inch. It will clear out behind this very weak system Mon night with lows mostly in the 10 to 15 degree range in the north and 20 to 25 Down East. Tuesday will be partly to mostly sunny, but cold with highs from the low 20s across the Crown of Maine to near 30 degrees Down East.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure crests over the region Tue evening and shifts east late Tue night. The night will likely start clear with an increase in clouds after midnight. An area of low pressure is expected to pass off the Middle Atlantic Coast Wed with a weakening surface trough to approach from the west. Wed will be mostly cloudy with flurries and perhaps a little bit of light snow across mainly the western half of the CWA. Attention turns to the next shortwave that rotates around a large upper low moving out of Ontario and into western Quebec. The model spread is huge looking at both the GFS and ECWMF ensembles. From the 12z ECMWF ensembles about 2/3s of them have a weaker and more suppressed low which would produce a light sub advisory snowfall. About 1/3 of the members have a much stronger low and would produce a heavy wet snow across the northern half of the CWA. The GFS ensembles also have a lot of spread in both the depth and location of the low. fairly high confidence that there will be some precipitation developing Thursday and continuing Thu night, but forecaster confidence on the specific details remains low. A shot of cold air with some snow showers and flurries across the Crown of Maine in the wake of the low for Fri into Sat.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: While BGR and BHB will see prevailing VFR conditions through the next 24 hours, MVFR ceilings will linger into early this afternoon at the northern terminals. The northern sites should see ceilings rise above 3000 ft by 18z with the clouds thinning through the evening hours. SHORT TERM: VFR Mon and Tue, with the possible exception of some MVFR ceilings Mon PM at KBHB in light snow. Predominately MVFR Wed with IFR/LIFR Thu and Thu night in snow north and rain or snow south.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the outer waters through this afternoon. North winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt will continue much of the day. The inner waters could see a few gusts up to 25 kt but this should be the exception rather than the rule, so have opted to not expand the SCA at this time. Winds will subside later today and overnight as high pressure builds into the region. The offshore flow will keep seas below 5 ft through the period. SHORT TERM: The next weather system will likely bring small craft advisory conditons Thu afternoon and Thu night with a gale possible. As low pressure pulls away strong sca conditions or low end gales are expected Fri as cold air sweeps over the waters.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050- 051. && $$ Near Term...Hastings Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Hastings/CB Marine...Hastings/CB

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