Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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033 FXUS61 KCAR 111038 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 538 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH A SECOND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED LIKELY BY THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE SEASON SO FAR ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PATCHY FOG OVR ERN PTNS OF DOWNEAST ME HAS ENDED OR MOVED E INTO NB PROV. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THE MIDDAY HRS WERE UPDATED BASED ON OBSVD TEMPS AT 5 AM...WHICH WERE COLDER THAN THE PRIOR FCST LOWS OVR SOME LCTNS OF NW ME. THIS RESULTED IN MODIFYING THE PRIOR FCST OF LOW TEMPS POSTED AT 7 AM IN ORDER TO FACILITATE A MORE REALISTIC WARMING TREND OF TEMPS LATER THIS MORN. NO OTHER CHGS WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM PTN OF THE FCST ATTM. ORGNL DISC: WHATS LEFT OF THIS CURRENT BATCH OF SN SHWRS IS CROSSING INTO NB PROV AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SCT SN SHWRS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE AHEAD OF A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT. WITH ONLY MDT 925-700MB INSTABILITY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SN SQLS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER SEGMENTS OF HEAVIER SN SHWRS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HALF TO FULL INCH OF ADDITIONAL LGT FLUFFY SNFL FOR SOME LCTNS. HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE A LITTLE ERLY TDY GIVEN THE TMG OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...RANGING FROM LATE MORNG OVR HE FAR NW ALG THE QB BORDER TO MIDDAY TO ERLY AFTN FURTHER E. TEMPS WILL THEN FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY REMAINING NARROW BAND ST LAWRENCE SEA WAY EFFECT SN SHWRS WILL TAPER TO SCT FLURRIES BY LATE TNGT AS THE LLVL AIR BECOMES TO COLD TO HOLD ANY MOISTURE...WITH FLURRIES ENDING LAST OVR THE FAR NE BY DAYBREAK FRI. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW LATE TNGT INTO FRI MORN AFTER A PERIOD OF GUSTY EVENING WINDS DURING THE COLD ADVECTION PHASE...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A WIND CHILL ADV IN LATER UPDATE. MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE COLD ADVECTION PHASE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING PRECLUDE ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL ADV FOR THESE PDS ATTM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOW TEENS SOUTH. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY LEVEL OUT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. SUBZERO READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS BANGOR. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP MUCH LOWER IN NORTHERN ZONES IF THESE CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE. A CLASSIC NORLUN TYPE 2 WILL SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A LOW WELL SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND LEAVES AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP UNSTABLE LAYER MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH NORLUN TROUGHS...THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE IT SETS UP. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER WEST IN THE PAST 24 HOURS TOWARDS THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST. THESE TROUGHS ARE OFTEN AN ALL-OR-NOTHING PROPOSITION WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...HAVE TAKEN A COMPOSITE APPROACH WITH AMOUNTS REACHING 8-9 INCHES IN COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY WITH A SHARP CUTOFF EAST OF MACHIAS DUE TO HIGH SNOW RATIOS ALONG THE NARROW SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE. THE CONCERN IS THAT IT WILL END UP ON THE OTHER SIDE OF PENOBSCOT BAY AS THE NAM12 HAS BEEN SHOWING WITH MINIMAL SNOW ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST. ELSEWHERE...SOME SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED INLAND ALONG THE NARROW INVERTED TROUGH AXIS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND LOW 20S ON THE COAST. WINDS PICK UP LATE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS LIKELY AS WIND CHILLS DROP TO -20 TO -30F BY SUNDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD GO MUCH LOWER. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS REBOUND ON MONDAY TO THE TEENS. THE COAST WILL WARM TO THE LOW 20S. ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE INITIAL OVERRUNNING SNOW FROM A MAJOR STORM EVENT WILL START. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND MOVE UP THE COAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS SOME NEGATIVE TILT. THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. OUR GRIDDED FORECAST TOOK AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FROM MULTIPLE MODELS AND BROUGHT THE LOW INTO THE MIDCOAST TOWARDS HOULTON ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS SEVERAL INCHES OF OVERRUNNING SNOW FOLLOWED BY A CHANGEOVER TO HEAVY RAIN EXCEPT TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH WHERE SNOW COULD HOLD THROUGH THE EVENT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST EVENTS OF THE WINTER AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE BAHAMAS WITH VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH A MORE WESTERN TRACK OR HEAVY SNOW WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK. A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN IS ANOTHER CONCERN ON THE WEST SIDE OF TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LOW. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY WITH A FLASH FREEZE POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLG CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES TDY INTO THIS EVE...WITH INTERVALS OF VFR CLGS AND BRIEF PDS OF IFR VSBYS WITH HEAVIER SN SHWRS. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN BECOME PREDOMINATE VFR LATE TNGT. SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS AT BHB AND BGR ON SATURDAY DUE TO SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR TDY WITH LONG PD SWELL RUNNING AOB 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS AND AOB 3 FT FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SCA GUSTS OVR ALL WATERS BEGINNING BY ERLY THIS EVE...CONTG THRU MIDDAY FRI. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS FOR THE NEAR TERM. AIR TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH LATE TNGT INTO FRI MORN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MDT FZG SPY... REQUIRING A FZG SPY ADV OVR ALL OF OUR WATERS DURG THIS TM. SHORT TERM: A STRONG GALE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH FREEZING SPRAY. AN SCA WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW GALE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW

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