Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 262251 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 551 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold tonight and more seasonable as high pressure moves into the region. Breezy tomorrow as another weak cold front brings isolated snow showers to the north. Warming trend begins once again on Tuesday with the chance for rain and snow returning on Wednesday as low pressure from the great lakes approaches. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 522 PM Update: Just minor adjustments to fcst hrly temps, dwpts, winds, wind gusts, and cld cvr into the ovrngt based on latest sfc and sat imagery obs. No chgs made attm with fcst ovrngt lows, with brisk eve winds and increasing late ngt cld cvr likely offsetting much in the way of radiational cooling potential. Orgnl Disc: Winds will begin to subside tonight as deep mixing is lost after sunset. It will remain mostly clear across Downeast tonight with partial clearing across the north, this will allow temperatures to drop off into the teens and low 20s. A weak system currently across the upper Great Lakes will quickly enter Maine during the day on Monday. Greatest sensible weather impacts with this weak surface boundary and 500mb vort max will be scattered snow showers across the North and gusty westerly winds for the remainder of the region. The intensity of the snow showers depends on the depth of mixing that is expected to occur tomorrow. Snow squall index has some high values, but sounding data has some spread on the mid-level instabilty values. This will impact how high the instability snow showers will develop. If the GFS is correct, could have some moderate strength snow showers, but the NAM was much shallower with the EQL height and will only support weak snow showers. It will be nice Downeast and Bangor region with partly cloudy skies and a stiff west wind. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will briefly build across the region Monday night into Tuesday, leading to fair weather. A warm front will begin to lift northward toward the region Tuesday night as low pressure treks across the Great Lakes. This front will bring precipitation to the region, moving from south to north, late Tuesday through Tuesday night, then continuing through Wednesday. Temperatures will drop enough Tuesday night to allow most locations away from the coast to see at least a bit of snow overnight. Any accumulation will be an inch or less, with the highest amounts across the Saint John Valley. The snow will change over to rain on Wednesday as temperatures warm into the 40s for most areas. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Widespread precipitation will be ongoing at the start of the long term as low pressure will be pushing across southern Quebec/northern New Brunswick/northern Maine. Rain will mix with and turn over to snow over the North Woods and much of central and northern Aroostook County Wednesday night while the remainder of the region will remain warm enough to stay all rain. The steady precipitation will taper to showers on Thursday as the aforementioned low moves off to our east. A much colder airmass will follow and linger through the end of the week. While the weather will be dry and skies partly to mostly clear, Friday and Saturday will come as quite a shock after the recent mild weather. Highs on Friday will top out around 20 across the north and around 30 Downeast, and Saturday will be a good 5 to 10 degrees colder. Add in a brisk northwest wind, and it`s definitely going to feel like winter`s made a comeback. The coldest temperatures will come Friday night, when lows will be -10 to 0 in the north and 0 to 10 south. We may see a bit of improvement on Sunday, though expect temperatures will be near or below seasonal normal. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Biggest impact will be gusty westerly winds tomorrow at all TAF terminals. There could be an isolated snow showers at the northern TAF terminals during the day tomorrow. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals 00z to 21z Tue. Ceilings will then lower to MVFR and eventually IFR/LIFR from south to north as widespread precipitation, associated with a warm front, spreads across the region. IFR conditions with occasional LIFR are expected by 09z Wed and will continue through much of the day. There will be improvement to MVFR after 00z Thu as widespread precipitation comes to an end, but occasional IFR will still be possible through Thursday in scattered rain and snow showers, particularly at the northern terminals. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Gusty west winds will continue after a small decrease in winds tonight, will allow Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue over the waters. Seas will remain high with a strong off shore wind keeping heights around 5 to 8 feet. No visibility reductions expected. SHORT TERM: Winds and waves will subside Monday night as high pressure builds across the waters. As such, small craft conditions will be possible early in the evening but they will be brief. Winds and seas will build again on Wednesday with a warm frontal passage. At this time winds look to be marginal, but seas are expected to exceed 5 feet by Wednesday afternoon. Therefore a Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas may be needed. && .HYDROLOGY... River ice movement has been evident on the Piscataquis River and its tributaries today, particularly at Blanchard and Abbot. Waterways are still rising from continuing runoff from the recent snowmelt and rainfall, and this trend will continue overnight. Additional ice movement and ice break up will be possible along the Piscataquis, the lower Penobscot, and their tributaries until the rivers have crested and begin to recede. This likely won`t happen until Monday morning at the earliest. Have therefore opted to extend the Flood Watch until 7 am Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MEZ010-011-015>017-031- 032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...VJN/Hastings Marine...VJN/Hastings Hydrology...VJN

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