Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 232231 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 631 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure will remain to our north tonight and Monday. The low will weaken and move east Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will cross the region Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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555 PM Update: The latest sfc analysis had low pres n of the Gulf of St. Lawrence w/a tight pres gradient in place. Winds will remain gusty into late evening w/some sites seeing gusts 40+ mph especially over the open and higher terrain. Wind Advisory remains in place attm. Latest radar loop showed light returns across northern Maine in the form of showers. Temps were adjusted to fit the latest conditions w/readings in the mid and upper 30s for far n and w while elsewhere, temps were in the 40s. Plenty of cloud cover as seen on the latest IR satl imagery keeping temps up some. Kept the trend for skies to go partly cloudy across downeast areas while northern Maine stays mostly cloudy overnight. Kept the mention for some snow showers across the n as well. Previous Discussion.... Some spotty rain and snow showers are possible across the far north tonight. Otherwise, tonight will remain mostly cloudy over central and northern areas with partial clearing Downeast. Moisture wrapping around the low in Eastern Canada will back south across the area on Monday keeping the region mostly cloudy, except for partial sunshine along the coast. Some spotty rain showers, and snow showers over the west, will continue. Winds will remain gusty but are expected to be lighter than they have been today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper level trof remains across the region Monday night through early Wednesday, then begins to move east later Wednesday, while several disturbances move through the trof. A surface trof also begins to move across northern areas Monday night, moves south across the forecast area Tuesday, then exits Tuesday night. Expect rain/snow showers across northern areas Monday night into Wednesday. Based on diurnal temperatures, expect precipitation to trend toward mostly snow showers from the evening through the early morning hours then to rain showers through the morning into the afternoon. Across higher terrain areas, expect precipitation to remain mostly snow showers. Across Downeast areas, expect rain/snow showers overnight with rain showers through most of the morning and afternoon. Expect the most numerous rain/snow showers across northern areas Monday night through Wednesday, with lesser chances Downeast. An upper level disturbance and surface trof will bring the most extensive snow showers across northern areas Monday night into early Tuesday where light snow accumulations are possible. Otherwise, with cold air aloft and moisture with the upper trof expect mostly cloudy skies across the region. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Tuesday/Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Clouds finally decrease Wednesday night as the persistent upper level low over the Canadian maritimes finally kicks off to the east. With high pressure building in, clearing skies, and a cold airmass, Wednesday night has the potential to be awfully chilly. Went colder than most guidance for temperatures Wednesday night in NW portions of the area including the North Woods, where the high pressure will be building in first. Mostly sunny and chilly Thursday, but the high pressure will be very short-lived with increasing clouds late in the afternoon ahead of the next system. Very good model agreement on the timing of the next system for it still being several days out, with precipitation moving in late Thursday night or Friday morning. It may briefly start as a mix over Northern Maine, but not very concerned about accumulations as warm advection should quickly change everywhere over to all rain. Not a particularly juicy system...probably a half inch or so of rain for most areas Friday, with the rain perhaps lingering into Friday night and Saturday. Friday night and Saturday is when model agreement goes from quite good to poor. Quite a bit of uncertainty in when the precipitation tapers off (does it end late Friday or linger into Saturday?). Also, a good deal of uncertainty as to how cold it gets Sunday behind the system. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally MVFR conditions are expected across the north tonight with VFR conditions downeast. Strong winds both surface and aloft and deep mixing due to cold air advection will result in strong gusty winds and potential turbulance across the region tonight into Monday. SHORT TERM: Generally expect MVFR conditions across the north and mountains Monday night through Tuesday, with occasional MVFR conditions possible Downeast. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the entire region Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the best chances across the north and mountains. Expect VFR conditions Thursday. Conditions will then lower to IFR/LIFR levels Thursday night, with MVFR/IFR conditions expected Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A gale warning will remain up early tonight, and likely be downgraded to a SCA later tonight. A SCA is likely on Monday. Strong winds and deep mixing due to colder air over the relatively warmer waters has resulted in very high seas, especially off the Washington County coast where seas have topped 18 ft. Seas will remain high tonight into Monday as the winds continue. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected Monday night into Wednesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MEZ001>006-010- 011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ052. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/Hewitt Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Bloomer/Hewitt/Norcross Marine...Bloomer/Hewitt/Norcross is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.