Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 271314 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 914 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE 0915 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND END THE RECENT LATE SUMMER WARM SPELL. THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS IN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING THAT MAY ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING LIFT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING...MOSTLY TO COVER THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THAT INITIAL SHORTWAVE. THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN ZONES WILL HELP REDUCE HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS THE BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AREA COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING. THIS HEATING...DEW POINTS IN THE THE MID 60S AND COOLING ALOFT PROMISES TO PRODUCE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH CAPE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC WILL HELP RE- ENERGIZE THE FRONT LATE TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BANGOR AREA TOWARDS WASHINGTON COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING. WITH TOPS POTENTIALLY REACHING 40K FT...SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL ARE THREATS AND HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR. AM FAVORING THE SREF/NAM/CANGEM REGIONAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE IMPORTANT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT...STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW 60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO CROSS THE AREA THU. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THU NIGHT AND FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA THU AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MEAN LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DOWNEAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE IN AREAS SUCH AS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60 DEGREES IF THERE ARE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT WITH CLOUDS IN THE NORTH GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR TO P/CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. THE FAR NW VALLEYS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF FULLY DECOUPLING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOL SPOTS WITH LOWS 40 TO 45. DOWNEAST AREAS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS AROUND 50F. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE REGION FRI MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...AND HIGHS IN MOST AREAS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70F. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS 445 MILES WSW OF BERMUDA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM PASSES ABOUT 450 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THU. THE ONLY IMPACTS ACROSS OUR PART OF THE WORLD ARE EXPECTED TO BE LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SAT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT ALTHOUGH EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR. CLOUDS INCREASE IN EARNEST SAT WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY SAT. THE MODELS DIVERGE SUN AND INTO LABOR DAY MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH SHOWERS...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND JUST WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. BY LABOR DAY THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA MAKING FOR A DRY DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WOULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING INTO LABOR DAY. IT APPEARS THAT SOME RIDGING BRIEFLY RETURNS BY TUESDAY MAKING FOR A DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT AT SOME POINT IF THERE ARE STEADIER SHOWERS HIGH TEMPS COULD CERTAINLY HOLD IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING FROM PQI NORTHWARD. STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT BGR AFTER 4PM. THESE STORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO BHB IN THE EVENING. IFR CIG/VIS IS POSSIBLE AT BHB LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST. SHORT TERM: MVFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THU WITH EXTENSIVE STRATOCU AND SHOWERS WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS. VFR EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE TERMINALS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS SAT PM AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...CROSSING THE 5FT THRESHOLD LATER TONIGHT AND PROMPTING THE SCA TO START AT 6Z. SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 6 TO 8 FT FROM CRISTOBAL. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY FRI. && .CLIMATE... TUESDAY WAS THE 3RD DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH >= 84F AT CARIBOU. THE LAST TIME THERE WERE 3 OR MORE SUCH DAYS SO LATE IN THE SEASON WAS IN 2010. SINCE WEATHER RECORD BEGAN AT CARIBOU IN 1939 THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 9 TIMES WITH A HIGH >= 84F SO LATE IN THE SUMMER SEASON. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.