Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 231055 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 555 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT LIES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 555 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. JUST MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POP, TEMPS, AND WEATHER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT ANY EARLY- MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COME TO AN END, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS MEANS WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION. LOWS WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT. THE SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING AND THEN POSSIBLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE WARMER AIR CAN MAKE IT IN THERE. AS SUCH, THERE COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT REALLY DON`T ANTICIPATE MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCRETION. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING BRINGING THROUGH AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL RN BAND DURG THE DAY MON...SO WE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POPS FROM QPF TOOL ADVERTISING A RAPID PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE REGION IN THE LATE MORN THRU THE ERLY AFTN HRS...BEFORE RN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS LATER IN THE DAY. BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD MON EVE WITH SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE MON NGT. TEMPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO COOL JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. NOT MUCH RISE IN TEMPS ARE XPCTD ON TUE DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE BKN-OVC SC WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUE AFTN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... TEMPS WILL CONT TO COOL TUE NGT WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...BUT OVRNGT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. HI AND MID CLDNSS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM S TO N AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND LIFTING S/WV ALF FROM THE SE STATES. MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CAN MARITIMES...RANGING FROM A MORE ERLY PROGRESSIVE TRACK WITH AN OPEN S/WV ALF ADVERTISED IN TDY`S 00Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUN...TO A MUCH DEEPER AND WRN TRACKING SYSTEM OF THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL... WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW TO SE ME BY THU MORN AS THE UPPER LOW AT BOTH 700 AND 500 MB CLOSES OFF OVR ME FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV ALF. WE THINK THE DTMNSTC 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE OVR ZEALOUS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY...WE WILL PSN THE FCST HLF WAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS IN OUR FCST GRIDS FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORN TM FRAME...WHICH MEANT RAISING POPS FOR MSLY SN TO CATEGORICAL OVR DOWNEAST AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...LIKELY OVR NE AND N CNTRL AREAS AND CHC OVR THE FAR NW. WE WILL MENTION IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK THAT ALL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SPCLY IF PLANNING ON TRAVEL. ANY STEADY SN OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN WITH SCT SN SHWRS CONTG ACROSS THE N INTO THU NGT AND FRI. AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL CAN CROSSES THE FA. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS NRN S/WV LATER FRI INTO FRI NGT. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN MAY BRING MORE SN SHWRS FOR SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT IN CLOUD DECKS OF 1000-2000 FT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE DRIZZLE MAY BE FREEZING 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KPQI. SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR IS XPCTD ACROSS TAF SITES IN BKN- OVC ST/NS AND LOW VSBYS DUE TO RN AND SHWRS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TUE THRU WED WITH MVFR COLD ADVCN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES TUE NGT INTO WED. MEANWHILE...MORE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SN ARE POSSIBLE FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE WED THRU WED NGT...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW FROM THE SE STATES AS IT HEADS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU MORN BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES THU AFTN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALES EARLY THIS MORNING SO THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED, BUT THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE ALSO STILL HIGH WITH BUOYS CURRENTLY REPORTING WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO COME DOWN, SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TRANSITION THE SMALL CRAFT TO ONE FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR MSLY WIND GUSTS FROM MON AFTN THRU MON NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRAD AHEAD AND BEHIND A STRONG LOW. STABLE LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP GUSTS JUST BELOW 35 KT OVR MOST OF OUR WATERS DURG THESE PDS...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE SO A WATCH SEEM JUSTIFIED. AFTWRDS ON TUE AND TUE NGT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY ERLY WED MORN. THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW MOVG NE FROM THE SE COASTAL STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATE WED INTO THU. DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON BOTH OF THESE FACTORS...MAKING HIGHLIGHTING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR THESE PDS A LOW CONFIDENCE PROSPECT ATTM...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE ADVERTISING HIGHER WINDS AND WVS WED NGT INTO THU. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ050>052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.