Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 192315 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 615 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area tonight and remain across the region on Friday. A cold front will cross the region Saturday. High pressure will build north of the region Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will intensify along the mid Atlantic coast Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 6 PM Update: Based on sat imagery, we needed to beef up cldnss across spcly Cntrl and Downeast ptns of the region thru the eve...then based on model trends of lower 925-850mb RH, bring in prtl clrg later tngt ovr these areas. Across the N, cld cvr will likely hold on longer thru the ngt, with any prtl clrg holding off closer to daybreak. Latest sfc obs show very little wind ovr the region, so we lowered winds spcly ovr the broad vly areas to near zero for much of the wind, with models showing little in the way of sfc pres gradient or winds alf. Lastly, fcst hrly temps thru the ovrngt were adjusted based on latest obsvd temps across the area, with the main theme, a slower fall to fcst lows by erly Fri morn. With little in the way of llvl cold advcn and more in the way of cldnss, we may need to raise ovrngt lows a few deg in the next fcst update, but will wait for a clearer trend until then. Orgnl Disc: The weak upper level trough which brought some light snow last night into today will slide east and away through the Maritimes tonight. A weak area of high pressure will build over the area tonight bringing tranquil conditions with partial clearing. The high will remain over the area on Friday. This will bring tranquil weather with partial sunshine. Temperatures will average around 10 to 15 degrees above normal tonight and Friday as an upper level ridge of high pressure begins to build into the area. Some high clouds from a weak shortwave in northern Quebec may increase across northern areas late in the day on Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will cross the region Friday night with partly/mostly cloudy skies. A cold front then crosses the region Saturday with partly/mostly cloudy skies across the north and mountains with partly cloudy skies across the remainder of the forecast area. High pressure builds north of the region Saturday night into Sunday. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies across the north and mountains Saturday night into Sunday along with a slight chance of snow showers Sunday. Generally expect partly cloudy skies across the remainder of the forecast area Saturday night/Sunday. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Saturday/Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will remain north of the region Sunday night while low pressure develops across the mid-Atlantic region. High pressure remains north of the region Monday while the low intensifies along the mid-Atlantic coast. Skies will remain partly cloudy across northern areas Monday, with increasing clouds Downeast. The high to the north will provide low level cold air across the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday, while temperatures aloft begin to warm with the low lifting toward the southern New England coast. The low will track across the Gulf of Maine toward Nova Scotia Tuesday into Wednesday. North to northeast winds between the high to the north and the approaching low will keep low level cold air across the region Tuesday into Wednesday, while temperatures warm aloft. Expect snow to develop across northern areas Monday night with a wintry mix developing across the remainder of the forecast area. Uncertainty still exists regarding exact precipitation types and amounts Tuesday into Wednesday, though significant precipitation is possible. Enough low level warming should occur to allow precipitation to transition to rain near the Downeast coast Tuesday. Across the remainder of the forecast area expect varying amounts of snow, sleet and freezing rain Tuesday into early Wednesday. The low exits across the maritimes Wednesday. Mixed precipitation will transition to snow showers across northern areas Wednesday afternoon, with snow/rain showers across the remainder of the forecast area. Low pressure will cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday, drawing a cold front across the region Thursday. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers across the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures will be at above normal levels across the forecast area Monday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions in variable low clouds will persist tonight. Conditions will likely improve to VFR on Friday as high pressure builds over the area. SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions, mostly ceilings, are expected across the region Friday night into Saturday. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains Saturday night into Sunday with generally VFR conditions Downeast. Generally VFR conditions are expected across the region Monday, though MVFR conditions could begin to develop Bangor and Downeast later Monday. Conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR levels across the forecast area Monday night, with IFR/LIFR conditions persisting Tuesday. Snow is expected across northern areas Monday night with a wintry mix developing across the remainder of the forecast area. A wintry mix is expected across much of the forecast area Tuesday, with precipitation transitioning to rain along the Downeast coast. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA tonight and Friday as high pressure building over the waters brings tranquil conditions. SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels Friday night through much of Sunday, with small craft advisory conditions starting to develop later Sunday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...VJN/Norcross Marine...VJN/Norcross

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