Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211048 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 648 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Storm Jose will remain southeast of Cape Cod today and begin to retreat back south. High pressure will build south across the region overnight through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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645 AM Update... Some patchy fog showing up mainly along the river valleys this morning. This will burn off quickly w/in the next hr or so as heating starts to kick from the rising sun. Temps dropped back into the mid and upper 30s this morning such as Clayton Lake down to 37F. High cloudiness continues to thin out from central areas on north. Further s, clouds a bit thicker but showing signs of thinning as well. Tropical Storm Jose continuing to spin in place per the last IR satl imagery, but is expected to start dropping s this afternoon. N winds will stay along the coast at 10 t0 20 mph being on the out fringes of Jose. Adjusted the hrly temps/dewpoints to fit the latest conditions. Rest of the forecast unchanged Previous Discussion.... Quiet pattern continuing w/above normal temps. Surface analysis showed high pres working its way down from Canada w/drier and cooler air this morning. Some sites back across the far nw have dropped into the upper 30s such as Estcourt Station. Further s into the Downeast region, dewpoints were still in the lower 60s but dropping off as the n wind brings that drier air in. Tropical Storm Jose still spinning se of Nantucket, MA and forecast to slowly drop s later today into tonight. High clouds across the region due to Jose w/this thickest cloud cover across the central and downeast areas. The n winds and high cloudiness will keep temps down into the low and mid 70s but as stated above still well above normal. High clouds will thin out more tonight and drift s as the high continues to press into the region. A cool night in store w/the potential for some patchy fog later tonight mainly across the n and w and along the rivers and streams. Overnight lows will average in the 40s w/some sites once again back across the n and w seeing upper 30s. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through 8 pm this evening for the coast. Some splash-over is also possible at the time of high tide later this morning. More on this in the Tides/Coastal Flooding section below.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure aloft and at the surface will be in control through the period. Expect mostly clear skies and light winds except towards the coast where more clouds will be present due to Jose. Temperatures will warm from Friday to Saturday about 5 degrees warmer. There is a chance of some fog Friday night as a steep inversion forms with lows in the 40s to lower 50s. A warm front crosses Saturday night...means lows will only drop into low to mid 50s. Fog will again be a threat will a more humid air mass. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The warm front will mean warmer and more humid conditions Sunday into Monday with highs in the 80s and dew points in the low to mid 60s. Fog could again be an issue Sunday night into Monday morning. It will be cooler on the coast due to an onshore flow. A cold front will cross the area later Monday into Monday night will bring cooler and less humid conditions for Tuesday. Little if any precipitation is expected with the front. High pressure will remain in place Tuesday into Wednesday, but there is a risk of widespread stratocumulus overcasts due to an easterly low level flow. The chances of precipitation will increase by late Wednesday as Maria approaches from the south and a frontal system moving in the northern branch start to converge on the area. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Some MVFR cigs in and out for KBGR and KBGR this morning. Northern terminals such as KPQI seeing some fog w/tempo IFR. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR this morning and remain that way into tonight. Patchy fog later tonight could bring VSBYS down to MVFR/IFR briefly across some of the northern terminals. SHORT TERM: Conditions will be primarily VFR. However, there is some risk of all sites having fog later Saturday night into Sunday morning...and again later Sunday night into Monday morning. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA for Hazardous Seas was transitioned to a full blown SCA for winds and seas. Winds are expected to pick up to 20 to 25 kit sustained w/gusts to 30 kts. The higher gusts will be across the outer zones. Seas will stay up at 8 to 10 ft w/a se swell component SHORT TERM: Winds and seas associated with Jose will diminish Friday, and it seems probable that the SCA will transition to an SCA for Hazardous Seas by later Friday. This would likely continue through Saturday. Another round of higher seas from Maria could start by Monday night or Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A long period swell from Jose is running at 10-11 seconds w/7-8 feet entering the Gulf of Maine. Waves are expected to slowly subside Today. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect through this evening. There is concern that long period waves w/high impact in the surf zone can run up much higher on the shore than shorter period waves resulting in the danger of spectators being washed into the ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents are also expected. Expect water level from storm surge to remain well under 1 foot. There could be some minor slash-over around these high tide cycles, however impact is now expected to be minimal. Total water levels inland from the coast are NOT expected to be high enough for flooding.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...Hewitt/MCW Marine...Hewitt/MCW Tides/Coastal Flooding...

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