Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 302021 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 421 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPS AND THEN EYES TURN THE UPCOMING STORM AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION. CLOUDS HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER IN THE EVENING PER THE NAM12/RAP SOUNDINGS AS MOISTURE HOLDING IN FROM 900-800MBS. THE COLUMN LOOKS TO DRY OUT LATER ON TONIGHT W/CLEARING AFTER, BUT CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT W/THE PARTIAL CLEARING AND WIND BECOMING LIGHT, THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DROPPING BELOW 32F ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. ATTM, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE COAST WILL HOLD UP A BIT INTO THE MID 30S. FOR FRIDAY, THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WHILE MORE SUN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND.... CLOUDS THICKEN UP FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. AT THIS POINT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN TWO PHASES....INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BREAK OUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY. IF PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY, THERE COULD BE A BIT OF SNOW AT THE ONSET BEFORE A CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN OCCURS SATURDAY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT PRECIP TO PICK UP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS LOW DRAWS CLOSER. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST MODELS WITH THE GFS NOW THE OUTLIER AS IT IS FARTHER WEST THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL. TRENDED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THIS UPDATE WHICH TRACK THE LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH TAKES THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY. THIS SOLUTION RESULTS IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE STORM FROM THE NORTH. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY HANG ON TO A MIX OR RAIN WOULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT IS STILL EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT ON SNOW ACCUMULATION HOWEVER PLOWABLE AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES. WITH THIS MORE EASTERN TRACK, AMOUNTS TAPER HEADING FARTHER WEST IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE CONSENSUS TAKING THE STORM FARTHER EAST AND THE CONCERN ABOUT JUST HOW FAST TEMPERATURES COOL AS PRECIP MOVES IN, WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER A MORE WESTERN TRACK CAN STILL NOT BE RULED OUT. THE OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IS THE WINDS WHICH WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW INTENSITIES IN RESPONSE TO MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH. FOR SUNDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO MOVE IN ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER EXTREME EASTERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY, WITH ADDITIONAL WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WINDS WITH THIS UPDATE AND HAVE GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH FOR SUNDAY WHICH MAY EVEN BE CONSERVATIVE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER WEST DURING THIS TIME AND LIKELY BRINGING MAINLY JUST SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION FOR KBGR THIS AFTERNOON AS A TEMPO OF MVFR WILL BE THERE THROUGH 23Z. SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALY IFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS RAIN AND SNOW MOVE IN ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THIS TIME.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL DROP BACK TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY W/SOME WEAK RIDGING MOVING OVER THE WATERS. SEAS ATTM RUNNING 2-3FT AND EXPECTED TO HOLD THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY. SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, STRONG GALE TO EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 10 FT. CONDITIONS SUBSIDE HEADING INTO MONDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS AVIATION...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS

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