Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KCAR 232231
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
631 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
Strong low pressure will remain to our north tonight and Monday.
The low will weaken and move east Tuesday into Wednesday. High
pressure will cross the region Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --555 PM Update: The latest sfc analysis had low pres n of the Gulf
of St. Lawrence w/a tight pres gradient in place. Winds will
remain gusty into late evening w/some sites seeing gusts 40+ mph
especially over the open and higher terrain. Wind Advisory remains
in place attm. Latest radar loop showed light returns across
northern Maine in the form of showers. Temps were adjusted to fit
the latest conditions w/readings in the mid and upper 30s for far
n and w while elsewhere, temps were in the 40s. Plenty of cloud
cover as seen on the latest IR satl imagery keeping temps up some.
Kept the trend for skies to go partly cloudy across downeast areas
while northern Maine stays mostly cloudy overnight. Kept the
mention for some snow showers across the n as well.
Some spotty rain and snow showers are possible across the far
north tonight. Otherwise, tonight will remain mostly cloudy over
central and northern areas with partial clearing Downeast.
Moisture wrapping around the low in Eastern Canada will back south
across the area on Monday keeping the region mostly cloudy, except
for partial sunshine along the coast. Some spotty rain showers,
and snow showers over the west, will continue. Winds will remain
gusty but are expected to be lighter than they have been today.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trof remains across the region Monday night through
early Wednesday, then begins to move east later Wednesday, while
several disturbances move through the trof. A surface trof also
begins to move across northern areas Monday night, moves south
across the forecast area Tuesday, then exits Tuesday night. Expect
rain/snow showers across northern areas Monday night into
Wednesday. Based on diurnal temperatures, expect precipitation to
trend toward mostly snow showers from the evening through the early
morning hours then to rain showers through the morning into the
afternoon. Across higher terrain areas, expect precipitation to
remain mostly snow showers. Across Downeast areas, expect
rain/snow showers overnight with rain showers through most of the
morning and afternoon. Expect the most numerous rain/snow showers
across northern areas Monday night through Wednesday, with lesser
chances Downeast. An upper level disturbance and surface trof will
bring the most extensive snow showers across northern areas Monday
night into early Tuesday where light snow accumulations are
possible. Otherwise, with cold air aloft and moisture with the
upper trof expect mostly cloudy skies across the region.
Temperatures will be at below normal levels Tuesday/Wednesday.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Clouds finally decrease Wednesday night as the persistent upper level
low over the Canadian maritimes finally kicks off to the east.
With high pressure building in, clearing skies, and a cold
airmass, Wednesday night has the potential to be awfully chilly.
Went colder than most guidance for temperatures Wednesday night in
NW portions of the area including the North Woods, where the high
pressure will be building in first.
Mostly sunny and chilly Thursday, but the high pressure will be very
short-lived with increasing clouds late in the afternoon ahead of
the next system. Very good model agreement on the timing of the
next system for it still being several days out, with
precipitation moving in late Thursday night or Friday morning. It
may briefly start as a mix over Northern Maine, but not very
concerned about accumulations as warm advection should quickly
change everywhere over to all rain. Not a particularly juicy
system...probably a half inch or so of rain for most areas Friday,
with the rain perhaps lingering into Friday night and Saturday.
Friday night and Saturday is when model agreement goes from quite
good to poor. Quite a bit of uncertainty in when the precipitation
tapers off (does it end late Friday or linger into Saturday?).
Also, a good deal of uncertainty as to how cold it gets Sunday
behind the system.
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally MVFR conditions are expected across the
north tonight with VFR conditions downeast. Strong winds both
surface and aloft and deep mixing due to cold air advection will
result in strong gusty winds and potential turbulance across the
region tonight into Monday.
SHORT TERM: Generally expect MVFR conditions across the north and
mountains Monday night through Tuesday, with occasional MVFR
conditions possible Downeast. Occasional MVFR conditions are
possible across the entire region Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with the best chances across the north and mountains. Expect VFR
conditions Thursday. Conditions will then lower to IFR/LIFR
levels Thursday night, with MVFR/IFR conditions expected Friday.
NEAR TERM: A gale warning will remain up early tonight, and
likely be downgraded to a SCA later tonight. A SCA is likely on
Monday. Strong winds and deep mixing due to colder air over the
relatively warmer waters has resulted in very high seas,
especially off the Washington County coast where seas have topped
18 ft. Seas will remain high tonight into Monday as the winds
SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected Monday
night into Wednesday.
ME...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MEZ001>006-010-
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ052.
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050-051.