Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 262035 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 335 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF MAINE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FEW CHANGES FROM THIS MORNING`S FORECAST, BUT NOTHING MAJOR. GOT RID OF ANY FREEZING RAIN MENTION DOWNEAST AND REPLACED IT WITH JUST SLEET. SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE A DEEP ENOUGH COLUMN OF COLD AIR TO REFREEZE ANY MELTING HYDROMETEORS. SO, FOR DOWNEAST, EXPECT SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DON`T EXPECT THE SLEET TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT. MAINLY IT WILL CUT DOWN ON SNOW TOTALS JUST A BIT TOWARD THE COAST. OTHER CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING`S FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE SNOW TOTALS BY ABOUT TWO INCHES FROM BANGOR TO MILLINOCKET TO DANFORTH TO HOULTON, WITH A CORRIDOR OF TOTALS JUST OVER A FOOT NOW EXPECTED. IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT BANGOR WILL HIT THE MAGIC 10 INCH SNOW MARK WITH THIS STORM (WE ARE FORECASTING 12 INCHES) WHICH WOULD MAKE IT THEIR SNOWIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. LATE THIS AFTERNOON, SNOW IS UNDERWAY AT PLACES LIKE BANGOR, BAR HARBOR, AND WHITING, AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE IF ANY RAIN AT THE ONSET WITH THE LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WORKING ITS MAGIC. THUS, ELIMINATED RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX THIS EVENING FROM THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES FROM ABOUT HOULTON SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF A DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT NOTHING MAJOR. WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM, WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH ESPECIALLY COASTAL DOWNEAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WITH THE WIND COUPLED WITH THE WET SNOW. DON`T THINK THE WINDS WILL BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE UP NORTH, THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WITH ITS SOMEWHAT LOWER DENSITY UP NORTH. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL USE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR POPS...SKY AND QPF AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND CAUSING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW THEN CHANGE TO MIXED THEN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE STATE EARLY MONDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM... LIFR DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SLEET MAY MIX IN LATE THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT BAR HARBOR AND BANGOR. STRONG NORTH WINDS AS WELL. IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. SHORT AND LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM... GALES TONIGHT WITH THE STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE LOW PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW GUSTS COULD APPROACH STORM LEVELS, SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. SHORT AND LONG TERM...FOR WINDS: HAVE USED THE NAM12 UNTIL LATE SATURDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM GENERATED IN EASTERN SECTOR OF EAST COAST STORM ON 27TH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT OFF-SHORE LOCAL FETCH AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. EXPECT NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET/8-10 SECONDS IN THIS FETCH. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ005-006- 010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...FOISY/MIGNONE MARINE...FOISY/MIGNONE

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