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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 190853
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
453 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING AS A SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
452 AM UPDATE...CANCELED THE FREEZE WARNING IN SE AROOSTOOK
COUNTY AND THE FROST ADVISORIES CENTRAL PENOBSCOT AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES EARLY AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS HAS FORMED AND
TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. WILL ALSO MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE
SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTS AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISC... A SFC RIDGE COVERS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MARITIMES AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING. A VERY
TRICKY SKY FORECAST AS AN AREA OF STATUS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2 K
FT AGL HAS DEVELOPED FROM ABOUT HOULTON-MILLINOCKET AND POINTS SE
ACROSS CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTY AND MUCH OF WASHINGTON COUNTY.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA OF STRATUS MOST AREAS WILL START CLEAR AND
FROSTY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SE THROUGH TON.
A WEAK SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA TON
WITH MOST OF THE SUPPORT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND AN AREA OF LIFT MOVES OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MODELS ALL HAVE AN AREA OF 1/2 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES FROM 06-12Z MON...AND THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BULLS-
EYES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHICH LOOKS
OVERDONE. THE MODELS DO STILL DIFFER SOME ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST QFP LATE TON INTO EARLY MON MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO SPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS IN FROM WEST
LATE TON ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST WHERE THE FLOW OFF THE
WATER WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS/RAIN WILL MAKE
FOR A MUCH MILDER NIGHT THAN THE LAST SEVERAL...WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S AND NO THREAT OF FROST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL DAWN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS A SMALL LOW DROPPING
IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA PULLS A SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN OUT
AHEAD OF IT. THE LOW IS FAST MOVING AND RAIN WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND AWAY DURING THE MID MORNING MONDAY. SKIES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY WITH STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS. SKIES WILL THEN BECOMING INCREASINGLY CLEAR LATE IN THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR PRESS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING A DRY START TO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY
AMBIVALENT ABOUT WHETHER THIS STORM WOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA
WITH SOME GUIDANCE KEEPING THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SOME GUIDANCE LIFTING THE MOISTURE INTO OUR
AREA. THE KEY FEATURE IN GUIDING THIS SYSTEM EAST SEEMS TO BE A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA. IF THIS TROUGH DIGS BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST IT COULD CAPTURE AND LIFT THE PLAINS STORM EAST
NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE CANADIAN TROUGH JUST
DROPS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND IT WOULD SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH KEEPING OUR AREA COOL AND DRY. CURRENTLY THE GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT ENOUGH OF THE CANADIAN TROUGH WILL DROP BACK
SOUTHWESTWARD TO PULL SOME MOISTURE AND RAIN INTO OUR AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN ACROSS
OUR REGION PUSHING THE REMAINING MOISTURE EAST AND BRINGING A
RETURN OF DRIER AND MODERATELY COOLER AIR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR IN AN AREA OF STRATUS AT KHUL EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR AT THE TERMINALS TODAY. CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR AROUND 04Z AT KBGR AND KBHB IN LOW STRATUS...AND
AFTER 08Z AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN STRATUS AND RAIN.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN MONDAY MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR BY MIDDAY MONDAY THEN VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER
TO MVFR OR IFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS CLOUDS AND RAIN
MOVE IN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A LIGHT WIND REGIME TODAY WITH THE WIND PICKING UP
TON AS THE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND WEAK LOW PRES
PASSES WELL NW OF THE WATERS. SUSTAINED WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT
DEVELOPING LATE TON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. WILL START A SCA AT 08Z
TON. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND MAY LIMIT THE
VSBY TO UNDER 1 NM AT TIMES TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KT
MONDAY MORNING. SOME FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITY EARLY MONDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS MAY REACH SCA AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES AGAIN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>005.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER