Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 230220 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1020 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to move east of the region through Monday. Low pressure will approach by mid week with the potential for a widespread significant rain event Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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1022 PM Update... Brought fog in across the downeast areas overnight and adjusted the temps up a tad as the clouds will keep a lid on things. The latest IR satl imagery showed low clouds moving in from the Gulf of Maine. The latest RAP guidance was doing quite well w/the low clouds and temps. It lined up well w/bringing the low clouds further n into portions of the Central Highlands overnight. Based on this assessment, decided to bring more clouds northward into the Millinocket- Lincoln region as well as into the central and southern Piscataquis region. Less clouds n of the Houlton-Millinocket region. Previous Discussion... Surface high pressure will continue to move east through the Canadian Maritime provinces tonight, while a 500 mb ridge axis crests across the region by morning. Expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies across the region this evening. As the surface high continues to move east, expect a light southeast return flow to develop. The light southeast flow and increasing boundary layer moisture could lead to some low clouds and patchy fog by morning, especially across the upslope region of of Piscataquis county. Some of this may spread east as far north as southeast Aroostook by daybreak Monday. Otherwise, any low clouds and patchy fog early Monday should give way to mainly sunny skies and milder afternoon temperatures as the high continues to build to the south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s north and low to mid 40s central an down east. Highs on Monday will range from the low to mid 60s across the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Dry Regime is Replaced by Wet Regime... Although steady rn will not arrive into our FA until Tue ngt, with sfc and llvl winds becoming and increasing from the S Mon ngt, oceanic ST, patchy dz and fog will initially overspread the FA by erly Tue morn. Low cldnss...patchy dz and sct shwrs will cont thru Tue as the Srly wind fetch remains in place. heavier steadier rnfl will then move W to E onto the FA Tue ngt and Wed as a deep trop atmos rvr from the trop Atlc and Caribbean Sea moves ovr the FA. Sig rnfl totals for much of the FA will be possible even by Wed eve, so max PoPs will be near 100 percent by Wed aftn. Winds will increase slowly from Tues into Wed, with possible wind adv wind speeds by Wed aftn. Both hi and spcly low temps will be well abv normal durg this ptn of the fcst.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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How much Rainfall for our Region?... Long range models show only slow E movement of the deep trop atmos rvr crossing our FA Wed ngt and Thu with PWATs in excess of 150 percent, with the potential of additional sig to hvy rnfl. We kept PoPs well into the categorical range during both of the pds. To far out to mention hvy rnfl attm, but we do indicate mdt rnfl beginning Wed and contg into Thu. If the worst case scenario rnfl pans out as we get closer to this event, we will have to entertain a flood watch for part or all of or Rgn. We will cont to monitor the latest model trends in making this decision. Otherwise, the mean consensus of long range models ends the rn Thu ngt as sct shwrs with improvement in the wx for Fri as a s/wv trof and sfc cold front from the Midwest finally kicks out the deep trop moisture E out of the Rgn. Fair and drier conditions should cont Sat and most of Sun before cldnss and shwrs from the next sfc low and associated s/wv alf from the Midwest apchs for Sun ngt and Mon. Temps will cont abv normal thru the pd even behind the cold front Thu ngt and Fri.
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&& .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions with light southeast winds this evening. There is the potential for MVFR or lower conditions toward KBGR/KBHB after 05Z in developing low ceilings. Any low clouds should dissipate after sunrise with VFR and light south winds on Monday. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Oceanic ST will overspread the FA from S to N ovrngt Mon with conditions lowering from VFR to IFR with patchy fog and dz. Some recovery to MVFR clgs are possible Tue aftn, spcly Nrn TAF sites before conditions lower to IFR Tue ngt for all sites and cont thru Thu ngt mainly in rn. Conditions should improve to MVFR on Fri with sct shwrs. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through Monday. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Initially no hdlns Mon ngt, but winds and seas increase to SCA by late Tue with a srly wind fetch and cont so thru into Fri with the highest seas Wed into Thu as wind gusts apch gale force. Winds and seas then slowly diminish Thu ngt thru Fri as winds become more wrly component ovr tm. Used a blend of WW3/NWPS for fcst wv hts with wv pds increasing from 5 to 7 sec Mon ngt to arnd 10 sec as the character of the wvs become more storm like late Wed into Thu morn when open water wv hts possibly apch 15 ft. Marine ST cld cvr and fog will start becoming an issue late Mon ngt and Tue and will likely reduce vsbys to a half mile or less Tue ngt thru Thu despite Srly strong wind speeds due to warm...moist air from the trop Atlc movg Nwrd across cold Gulf of ME waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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