Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 261509 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME 1109 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure east of Nova Scotia will continue moving east and high pressure will build south from northern Quebec tonight and Thursday. Low pressure will approach Thursday night then cross the Gulf of Maine Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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---1107am Update--- WFO Caribou is having stability issues with their computer systems so WFO Gray has assumed forecast responsibility for their area until the issues have been resolved. Current forecast package is in reasonably good shape and I do not expect to make any major changes. 630am update...No changes were made. Previous discussion... The area will be under the influence of a cold upper trough and an ill-defined inverted trough stretching west from a low east of Nova Scotia. These factors will produce widespread cloudiness and rain/showers. Higher terrain in the Katahdin region and Piscataquis County could receive up to 1/2 inch early this morning before diurnal warming of the boundary layer changes all of the shower activity to rain...except for elevations above 2000ft. The lingering clouds prompted an increase for tonight`s lows by 5 to 10 degrees. Clearing may finally reach northern zones late tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Hipres wl be holding tight acrs CWA on Thur, then building off to the east in th aftn. This wl allow return flow to kick in and increase dwpts acrs the region. System currently spinning thru the Plains wl track thru the Great Lakes drg the day on Thur, appchgthe state Fri morning. All med range guidance agree on double-barrel low acrs the northeast by 06z Fri. By 12z expect energy to be transferred off the coast with sfc low in vicinity of Cape Cod Fri morning. Low wl be mvg thru the Gulf of Maine but guidance differs on locations with NAM furthest north, leading to warmest soln. With storm still being 4-5 periods out hv gone with snow north of a Greenville-Houlton line Fri morning, then gradually mixing with and going over to rain during the afternoon. Expect an initial 1-3 inches in the morning, mainly in the higher terrain of Piscataquis cnty. Lingering higher elevation snow thru the day on Fri wl add to the accums with potential for 4 to as much as 7 inches by 00z Sat, depending on where deformation snow can set up. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... System wl be mvg into Nova Scotia Fri night with just lingering snow in it`s wake. Expect addnl accums early Fri evng bfr coming to an end. Brief ridge axis wl build in Sat mrng bfr next H5 trof moves in fm Quebec. Column looks to warm enuf to be mainly liquid pcpn on Sat with the exception of the North Woods early in the mrng. Hipres builds in Mon aftn in wake of trof`s departure with mainly dry wx into Tue aftn bfr next wv appchs CWA. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: The prevailing condition will be MVFR cigs. A period of IFR cigs is possible this morning from HUL southward to include BGR and BHB. Light rain/snow showers may briefly reduce vis for BGR early this morning. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected on Thur before diminishing to MVFR Thur night. IFR/LIFR on Fri morning in rain across southern terminals and ra/sn mix across the north. MVFR expected through the weekend at terminals. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Will continue the SCA as previously advertised with winds gusting to around 25 kts and seas approaching 5 ft. SHORT TERM: Gale Watch has been issued late Thur night into Fri afternoon for the outer waters. Gale may be need for intracoastal zones during the same time period. Expect that seas will be 8-12 feet on Fri in southeasterly swell. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...None.
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