Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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203 FXUS61 KCAR 210406 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1206 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach tonight and cross the area on Friday. High pressure will build over the region Saturday into Sunday. Low pressure will approach on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Update 12:05 AM: Have adjusted temperature, dew point, and wind based on latest observations. Also have adjusted sky cover based on latest satellite. Previous discussion... A few isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across the northern Maine woods as of late this afternoon in response to a mid level short wave approaching from the west. Further south, across central and down east Maine, a nearly stationary frontal boundary is expected to be the focus of another area of convective activity through early this evening. Will continue to mention gusty winds and small hail through early this evening with any thunderstorms, otherwise things should be on the wane after sunset with partly cloudy skies overnight. A bit of patchy fog is possible late tonight with lows again only expected to be in the lower 60s across much of the area. The attention on Friday turns to a cold front approaching from Quebec. Models in good agreement regarding the timing of the front across the St John Valley shortly after sunrise Friday and then into down east Maine by early afternoon. Have went likely pops for showers across the north on friday as model consensus supports measurable rainfall across the area; however, pops will drop off pretty sharply across down east Maine as the best moisture in association with the front remains to the north and east. Have also mentioned scattered thunder across northern and central areas until the front crosses. Will not mention any enhanced wording at this time, but think the best chance for any stronger storms would be from south of Houlton through the central highlands and through interior portions of down east Maine, coinciding with the later frontal passage timing. Further north, the earlier timing of the front will likely preclude any stronger storms from developing. Much drier air will begin to advect into the area behind the front with dew points dropping into the 50s with the frontal passage. High temperatures on Friday will be warmest across central and down east, with highs in the mid 80s expected. Across the north, highs will only range from the mid to upper 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front will be pushing offshore Friday evening. Any lingering showers Downeast should dissipate early in the evening. A weak secondary front across the north may produce some spotty showers over the far northwest early in the evening. Otherwise, Friday night should be partly cloudy over the area. High pressure will build down from the northwest on Saturday bringing a mostly sunny day. The air will be cooler and drier than recent days, especially across the north. High pressure over the north will maintain mostly clear and dry weather Saturday night into Sunday across central and northern areas. A broad area of low pressure sliding east out of a longwave trough over the Great Lakes will approach on Sunday. This will bring increasing clouds to Downeast areas with a chance for some showers late. Currently there are big model differences with the NAM keeping the whole area dry on Sunday but the GFS bringing moisture and some rain Downeast on Sunday. For now will just have a slight chance of showers Downeast Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure will approach Sunday night into Monday and track south of the area Monday night into Tuesday. The GFS digs a strong trough into the east with secondary low pressure forming off the Mid- Atlantic coast Monday night with rain likely across the area Monday into Tuesday. However, the GFS has been the northern most solution with this storm. The ECMWF and Canadian have favored the storm system tracking further south and the area remaining mostly dry early next week. Will likely have to keep at least low chance for some rain Monday into Tuesday, mostly across the Downeast area. The system should slide east and away during the mid-week period allowing high pressure to bring a return of dry weather Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally VFR overnight. An isolated thunderstorm is possible until around 03Z with local IFR conditions and gusty wind. A cold front will cross the region from north to south on Friday. The front will be accompanied by showers and sct thunderstorms, mainly KHUL north through early afternoon. Any heavier activity could result in locally brief sub VFR conditions, otherwise VFR the majority of the time. Winds will become northwest from north to south with the passage of the front on Friday. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area Friday night through Sunday. Conditions may lower to MVFR Downeast Sunday night, then lower to MVFR across the remainder of the area Monday with the possible exception of the far north. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through Friday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA Friday night through Sunday. Winds should remain below SCA on Monday. Some rain is possible on Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term... Long Term... Aviation...Mignone/ Marine...Mignone/

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