Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 291000 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 600 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 600 AM UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A BAND OF MID CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MIXING INCREASES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THESE LOCATIONS...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS AIRMASS IS DRIER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO IT WON`T FEEL QUITE SO MUGGY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 900-950 MB TODAY, AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT WE`LL SEE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR, IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS IS OVERDONE. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S IN MOST SPOTS, THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, AND WITH SOUTH FLOW, EXPECT MARINE FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SUN WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY WITH VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING CLDNSS AND SHWRS/TSTMS FROM A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM CNTRL CAN INTO NW PTNS OF THE FA BY MID AFTN. WE CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG TSTMS OVR NW PTNS OF THE FA INTO ERLY EVE WITH WHATS LEFT OF A DECENT CAPE AXIS FROM SRN QB HOLDING OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...BUT MODELS INDICATE THIS AXIS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER EWRD INTO OUR FA OVRNGT. SO FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED TSTM WORDING IN OUR FCST GRIDS...AND WE DROP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM OUR GRIDS AFT MDNGT SUN NGT...WITH MUCH OF THE RNFL DURG THIS TM FRAME MSLY POST COLD FRONTAL RN SHWRS. POST FRONTAL RN SHWRS WILL END N TO S ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN AND CLRG THE DOWNEAST COAST SUN EVE. MOST LCTNS ACROSS THE FA WILL RECEIVE ARND A HLF INCH OF TOTAL RNFL...WITH SOME LCTNS EXPERIENCING HIGHER CNVCTV RNFL RATES WITH TSTMS...LCLY UP TO AN INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEG COOLER THAN SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WITH CLRG SKIES SLOWLY EXPANDING N TO S ACROSS THE FA...SUN NGT WILL FEATURE CHILLY LOW TEMPS...SPCLY NRN VLYS WHERE LGT WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CLR SKIES LATE SUN NGT...ALLOWING A PD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THERE. ALTHOUGH ITS TO ERLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY...PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR THE COLDEST NW VLY LCTNS. MON THRU THU LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR AND DRY WITH A GRADUAL WRMG TREND...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A SGNFCNTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR TUE NGT THRU WED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER S/WV TROF FROM THE GREAT LKS...FEATURING SGNFCNT RNFL FOR OUR FA THESE PDS. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MORE SHEARED...KEEPING RNFL S OF OUR FA TUES NGT AND WED. WPC MED RANGE GRAPHICS...SUPPORTED BY THE GFS ENSM FCST...KEEP RN WELL S OF OUR FA TUE NGT AND WED...SO FOR NOW WE INDICATE SLGT CHC POPS THESE PDS...AND WILL WATCH THE TREND OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THIS SYSTEM OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, KBHB WILL REMAIN LIFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN FOG. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KBHB AND KBGR AFTER 03Z SATURDAY. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR ALL TAF SITES ON SAT...LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS SAT EVE...THEN TO IFR IN SHWRS AND PATCHY DOWNEAST FOG LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR FROM N TO S BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG SUN EVE OVR DOWNEAST SITES. VFR THEN ANTICIPATED ALL TAF SITES LATE SUN NGT THRU TUE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA RANGE BY SAT AFTN...CONTG THRU SAT NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA CRITERIA ON SUN. NO HDLNS THEN ANTICIPATED SUN NGT THRU TUE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN

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