Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 260758 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 358 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach from the south today. The low will dissipate while moving away to the east tonight and Thursday. A cold front will approach on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak low pressure along the mid atlantic coast will move northeast to the southern New England coast late tonight. Rain will continue across the region today as the low slowly moves northeast. The heaviest rain is expected to be across central and downeast portions of the region where one to one and one half inches of qpf is expected. Across far northwest Maine and the St John Valley, amounts are expected to be less, generally ranging from one-third to one-half inch. High temperatures today will generally be in the lower 50s regionwide. The steady rain will begin to taper off this evening as the surface and upper level lows continue to weaken. However, abundant low level moisture will remain across the region tonight as a light southeast flow will result in low clouds along with areas of fog and drizzle, especially downeast. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s to around 50. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Thu will feature an upper lvl ridge contaminated by a sig amt of llvl moisture due to Srly llvl winds. This will mean that patchy dz/fog will give way by late morn to mcldy skies and isold shwrs for the remainder of the day. Brightening of the sky by thin ptns or breaks in the ovc Thu aftn should help temps recover to highs of lower to mid 60s across the region, xcpt alg the Downeast coast where onshore winds will result in cooler hi temps in the 50s. Similar to erly morn Thu, late ngt patchy fog and dz will return to the region late Thu ngt into Fri morn as llvl winds remain from the S from the Gulf Maine with mild ovrngt lows. Weak s/wvs from the Great Lks topping the mean upper ridge ovr the region will bring msly aftn shwrs to the region Fri aft hi temps msly in the 60s, with isold tstms possible ovr NW ptns of the region with weak SBCAPE and/or elevated CAPE. Shwrs should move E of the region and end across the region Fri eve behind a weak cold front with partial clrg to region late Fri ngt and slightly cooler ovrngt lows. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Msly unsettled conditions will cont thru the long term. Models differ with regard to shwr potential for Sat, with the 00z opnl GFS indicating an upper lvl s/sw crossing the region by Sat aftn from srn QB, resulting in shwrs, spcly for the N, while the opnl ECMWF and CanGem models have less emphasis on this system and msly dry conditions. The blend of these solutions result in low chc msly aftn shwr PoPs across mainly Nrn ptns of the region. After the passage of the s/wv E of our region Sat eve, a secondary cold front will bring cooler ovrngt lows Sat ngt and hi temps on Sun with msly fair skies with sfc hi pres ridging behind the front from Cntrl Can. Longer range models then fall back into the agreement for Sun ngt in showing increasing cldnss for the region ahead of the next low pres from the Srn Rockies and intermittent rn/shwrs from the same system as it moves acoss the Great lks into QB prov Mon and Tues. Temps will be on the cool side thru these ptns of the fcst due to llvl damming of cool air as the warm front becomes stationary just S of ME. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Widespread IFR/LIFR flight conditions are expected through tonight in rain today and in low clouds, areas of fog and drizzle tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Msly MVFR clgs/vsbys by day and IFR clgs/vsbys by ngt and erly morn in patchy fog/dz from erly Thu morn thru Fri across our TAF sites. Conditions should msly improve to VFR Fri ngt and cont Sat and Sun. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will continue to increase to small craft advisory levels today. Small craft advisory conditions, mainly for seas are expected tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Msly SCA wv hts or marginal wind gusts will prevail across our MZs thru these ptns of the fcst. Went with about 90 percent of WW3 guidance for fcst wv hts this update. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The highest astronomical tides of the month are expected over the next several days in conjunction with a new moon Thursday. Meanwhile near shore wave heights are expected to build Wednesday Night. At the current time the combination of waves and astronomical tide do not appear sufficient to produce any significant runup and overtopping, although some minor beach erosion is possible. This is supported by experimental runup guidance. In addition wind speeds over the next several days do not appear strong enough to produce any coastal flooding. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/VJN Marine...Duda/VJN Tides/Coastal Flooding...TM

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