Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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256 FXUS61 KCAR 051110 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 610 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AND PASS EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE...LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE SNOW IS STARTING TO MAKE IT INTO DOWNEAST MAINE ATTM. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH INTO NORTHERN PENOBSCOT AND SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK BY MID MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MAIN FORECAST CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES IN DOWNEAST MAINE. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK...ALL OF PENOBSCOT COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL START TO OVERSPREAD DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MAINE BY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE...ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY APPROACH A FOOT ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST...THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH EARLY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. THIS MAY KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWN JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES. ACROSS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK AND THE CENTRAL MAINE HIGHLANDS...EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE WHERE WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND NORTHERN MAINE WOODS AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN AREAS NORTH OF HOULTON INCLUDING THE CARIBOU AND PRESQUE ISLE REGION. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON FOR DOWNEAST MAINE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS QUICKLY EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE REGION. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID TEENS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A CLIPPER MOVING OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z SAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER SUN MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE BY 00Z MON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SAT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW COULD BREAK OUT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD SUNSET. THE BEST CHANCE OF A LITTLE OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL BE SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BUT ANY ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND < 1". A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH STEEP LAPSE RATE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL, MAINLY ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SQUALLS. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SQUALLS AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MORE THAN A QUICK INCH OR SO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRES NOSES DOWN INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SUN NIGHT AND PASSES WELL SE OF CAPE COD MON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUE MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEAST. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A STORM, AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ACROSS EASTERN MAINE OR NOVA SCOTIA AND WOULD BRING ADVISORY TO WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE THE CWA. AN EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDE GOALPOST WITH SOME MEMBERS TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND SOME TAKING THE LOW EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA, ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS TAKE THE LOW EITHER ACROSS MAINE OR THE WESTERN MARITIMES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAINS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. THAT SAID, SO FAR THIS WINTER THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE NW EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS. GENERALLY A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO FOLLOW. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY KBGR/KBHB IN SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR KCAR/KPQI/KHUL LATER THIS MORNING AS SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST. KFVE WILL BE ON THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW SHIELD TODAY AND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY MVFR. EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO RETURN TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR SAT WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING, ESPECIALLY SO AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. BRIEF PERIODS OF VLIFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS SUN MORNING AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. PREDOMINATELY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONDITIONS TO LIKELY DETERIORATE LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT IN SNOW WITH SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION DOWNEAST. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS MORNING AND THEN TO GALE FORCE LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING. SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY SAT PM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SHOULD START THE DAY BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW AND INTO THE NW SUN AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005- 006-011-031. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ016- 017-029-030-032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ015. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...DUDA/CB MARINE...DUDA/CB

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