Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 200656 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 156 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move east of the region overnight. Low pressure will track north of the region today drawing a cold front across the region tonight. High pressure will build across the region Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Update... Low pressure will track across Quebec province overnight drawing a warm front north. Snow will develop across northern areas overnight with accumulations of around an inch expected. Lesser precipitation chances will exist southward across central and Downeast portions of the forecast area where any snow could transition to a light wintry mix with any snow accumulations less than an inch along with little or no ice accumulation. Temperatures will be near steady or slowly warm through the remainder of the night. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with overnight temperatures, cloud cover and precipitation chances/types. Previous discussion... Lgt snfl will cont into Sat morn across NE ptns of the Rgn as late as mid morn before all sn exits into NB prov. Behind a warm front, temps will be much milder with aftn high temps ranging from lower to mid 30s across the N to arnd 40 ovr the lower Penobscot vly. A cold front from Hudson bay will be entering far NW ME by erly eve Sat, with sct sn shwrs xpctd just ahead of the front ovr the NW third of the Rgn late in the aftn. W winds will be on the rise durg the aftn as the lower atmos destabilizes and allows fairly strong winds alf in the 925-850mb layer to mix down in gusts that could reach 30 mph and even a little stronger ovr hi trrn.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The model guidance is in good agreement through the short term period of the forecast. A low northeast of the area in the Gulf of St Lawrence will bring wrap around precipitation into northern Maine at the start of the period. Higher pressure will building in behind the precipitation will move into northwestern Maine early Sunday morning, moving the precipitation into central Maine, then out of the state by Sunday morning. A low in the southern Midwest will deepen and move northeast Sunday into early Monday moving into SW MO, its associated warm front will extend into NH. Monday afternoon the warm front moves into SW Maine. Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool 20%, 26% for the coastal waters. For QPF used GFS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended models are in good agreement at the start of the period. There will be a high pressure ridge in place at the start of the period across the local area. A deepening low over central MO with a warm front extending NE into the eastern Great Lakes. Monday morning the low further deepens and move NW into southern IA as the low occludes, the leading edge of the warm front will move into Ern NH/SW ME. Monday evening the low moves east to Nrn IL, the warm front moves into SW ME. Tuesday morning the cold front moves into wrn ME. Tuesday evening the cold front moves to Ern ME, to this point the GFS /ECMWF/GEM are all in pretty good agreement. All three are showing secondary development of a low along the frontal boundary. The GFS/Gem show the low over Nrn ME, the ECMWF shows it south near Portland. Development of the low depending upon location will greatly affect precipitation amounts and temperature advection. By Wednesday morning the low and front will be east of our area. Wrap around precipitation will continue across Nrn ME Friday morning as higher pressure build in. A ridge of higher pressure will remain through the end of the period. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models, however the solution leans more towards the ECMWF solution. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR, with occasional LIFR, conditions are expected across northern areas overnight into Saturday morning. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains Saturday afternoon. Occasional MVFR conditions are expected Downeast overnight into Saturday morning, with VFR conditions Saturday afternoon. SHORT TERM: MVFR with scattered snowshowers early becoming VFR north, then the area of precipitation will move south to the coast by morning, MVFR conditions will move south through the overnight hours, with clearing skies, VFR conditions building in behind the area of precipitation as higher pressure builds in. MVFR conditions return Monday evening as a warm front moves into the area at the start of the period for BHB and BGR. IFR conditions for BHB and BGR Monday evening before 10 pm. MVFR conditions spread to HUL and northern Maine, by midnight. IFR conditions spread th HUL and northern Maine by 3 am. IFR conditions will continue until Wednesday morning for BHB, BGR, and HUL becoming MVFR the clearing and becoming VFR by mid morning. Northern Maine will clear to MVFR mid morning, but will remain MVFR with scatter snowshower through the end of period.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the waters overnight through early Saturday night. Visibilities could be reduced in a light wintry mix overnight into Saturday morning. SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory will likely be in effect at the start of the period for winds and sea. The winds and seas are expected to subside quickly after the start of the period. Winds and seas will be below SCA criteria by around 9 pm as higher pressure builds across the region and will remain below through Monday.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Norcross/VJN Short Term...Norton Long Term...Norton Aviation...Norcross/Norton Marine...Norcross/Norton

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