Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 261122 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 722 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 715 AM UPDATE... TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK THIS MRNG WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP THRU THE MORNING IN ONGOING WARM ADVECTION. FCST HIGHS LKLY TO CLIMB INTO THE M/U40S THIS AFTN COMPARABLE TO YDA. WAA WL BE COMPETING AGAINST INCRSG CLD CVR. ONLY PLACE LGT SNOW IS FALLING ACRS CWA IS NR FRENCHVILLE IN AREA OF 50KT H8 JET AND LFQ OF H8 JET STREAK THAT WL MV RAPIDLY EAST INTO CANADA IN THE NEXT HR OR SO. STEADY PCPN WL MV INTO AREA FM THE WEST AFT 18Z IN THE FORM OF -RA. AS THE AFTN WEARS ON AND COLD AIR FILTERS DOWN FM THE NORTH EXPECT RA/SN MIX TO BEGIN ACRS THE NORTH AFTER 21Z AND PROGRESS SWRD FM THERE THRU THE END OF THE NR TERM. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. INITIAL AREA OF PCPN HAS MVD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ATTM WITH JUST A FEW METARS REPORTING FLURRIES AT BEST. HV RMVD MENTION OF FOG AS UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE AS OF 07Z WITH SSW WINDS GUSTING TO NR 20KTS. EXPECTING JUST A SLGT CHC FOR RAIN THRU THE MRNG HRS IN SATURATED AIRMASS UNTIL SFC LOPRES CAN WORK NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AS L/WV TROF HEADS EAST INTO GREAT LKS. EXPECT THAT STEADY PCPN WL MV INTO WRN ZONES AFT 21Z THIS AFTN, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. DRY AIRMASS ACRS FAR NORTH WL PREVENT LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR THE CROWN OF MAINE, THUS HV GONE WITH JUST SCTD POPS LATE THIS AFTN. WHAT IS ABLE TO FALL WL LKLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY BCM ALL SNOW THIS EVNG AS COLD AIR FILTERS SOUTH ON NRLY FLOW AS SFC LOW PASSES INTO MARITIMES. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST CLD AIR CAN DRAIN INTO THESE ZONES WL DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAIN WL BE TURNING OVR TO SNOW JUST AS MOISTURE EVACUATES AREA THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1-2 QUICK INCHES OF SNOW OVR MOST OF THE NORTH. EXCEPTION WL BE ARND KATAHDIN IN PISCATAQUIS CNTY WHERE 2-4 INCHES MAY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE. AS FOR QPF AMNTS OVR DOWNEAST HV TRENDED DOWN ON AMNTS TONIGHT WITH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH TRACK OF LOW. MAINLY LOOKING FOR 0.5-0.75 INCHES FM THIS AFTN THRU 12Z FRIDAY BFR RAIN HEADS SOUTH AND EAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A WEAK SECONDARY LOW MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND CLEARER FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL THEN BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT VERY BRIGHT AS SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH AND SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE SATURDAY WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUT WILL BE RIDGING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND KEEPING CONDITIONS COLD AND DRY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW INITIALLY DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. WILL USE SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO DELINEATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT FVE IN LOW CIGS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT -SN WILL IMPACT TERMINAL AND HV LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR -SN AT CAR FOR SEVERAL HRS BTWN 23Z AND 02Z. IFR RESTRICTIONS LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE AT PQI AND HUL THIS EVENING IN -RASN. BGR AND BHB WILL SEE IFR CIGS THRU END OF TAF VALID TIME IN -RA, THO MAY SEE BGR MIX WITH -SN AFTER 02Z. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY.EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT WITH SW WINDS GUSTING TO NR 30TS. EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TOWARD SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050- 051. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER

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