Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 280504
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
104 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
High pressure will build across the region this evening then move
to the east Sunday. A low in Quebec will drag a warm front across
the area Sunday night, followed by a cold front on Monday. High
pressure returns Monday night into Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --1:00 am Update: Have adjusted temperature, dew point and winds
based on latest observations. No other changes.
High pressure wl build into the area tonight, shifting east into the
Maritimes by morning. This wl allow return flow to set up as next
system tracks thru Srn Quebec on Sunday. Wmfnt expected to lift
north of the area Sun aftn/evng with showers accompanying the bndry
May see isold showers begin to dvlp by late mrng, overspreading the
Crown of Maine drg the aftn. Hv added in isold thunder to lkly pop
area in the aftn tho chcs look marginal at best. Only thing it has
going for thunder chcs is 25-30kt low-lvl jet impinging into front
as it lifts thru. Maxes tomorrow look to be just slightly cooler
than tda as mocldy skies are fcst in return flow.
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.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers will become more numerous overnight Sunday night as low
pressure slides by just to our north, dragging its attendant cold
front in its wake into Monday. Guidance indicates there will be
elevated instability out ahead of the front, along with a little
jetlet rounding the base of the low. Therefore can`t rule out a
rumble of thunder or two overnight. The front itself will cross
the region in disjointed pieces on Monday, with the first wave
coming early Monday morning. This will allow showers to decrease
in coverage, but the threat for rain will linger till early
afternoon as the secondary boundary and upper trough push through.
Drier conditions follow Monday night and much of Tuesday as high
pressure ridges over the area. A few showers may threaten over the
Saint John Valley late in the day Tuesday ahead of the next
approaching system, but coverage will be limited. Highs will be in
the 70s both Monday and Tuesday with interior Downeast approaching
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
taste of fall for late week...
A warm front will cross later Tuesday night with rain...most
likely towards northern Aroostook County. The cold front
associated with this low will cross Wednesday. In the aftermath of
this low, a deep upper level trough will dig southward over New
England with significantly cooler temperatures and low humidity
Thursday into Saturday. The cool northwesterly flow will likely
produce widespread clouds and some light rainshowers in northern
zones and have gone below MOS guidance with highs only in the
lower 60s in north of Houlton. Even towards Bangor and the coast,
only upper 60s to lower 70s seem likely at this time.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected through Sunday, but with
pockets of MVFR developing at the northern terminals late in the
day in showers.
SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions will be likely in widespread showers
Sunday night into early Monday morning. Things will improve to VFR
through the morning hours, though MVFR ceilings may linger a bit
across the northern sites. VFR will prevail Monday night and
Tuesday, with no significant weather expected until Tuesday
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft
advisory levels through Sunday.
SHORT TERM: Headlines are not anticipated at this time as winds and
seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. However, a
southeast swell looks to set up late Sunday night into Monday which
could bring waves up to 4-5 ft, especially in the outer waters.
Conditions appear marginal ATTM and so have opted to not issue an
SCA, but later shifts will need to monitor for trends.