Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 171645 AAC AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1245 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1230 AM UPDATE: TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS/WINDS OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DECREASING MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL. SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5 ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S.&& && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN OVERLAND TRAJECTORY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/ && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE SCA WAS CANCELLED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS AT THE EASTERN MAIN SHELF ARE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HSA UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FACEBOOK PAGE IS AN EXCELLENT SPOT FOR AN UP TO DATE LIST OF ROAD CLOSURES IN THE COUNTY. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE HSA...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE AREAL SURVEILLANCE. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO VAN BUREN. THERE WAS A REPORT THIS MORNING OF AN ICE JAM BETWEEN VAN BUREN AND GRAND ISLE WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN THE GRAND ISLE AREA. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BUREN DOWN TO HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY`S RAIN EVENT. A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED ALONG THE STILLWATER RIVER AT ORONO UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING AT A COUPLE OF HOUSES ALONG THE RIVER AND OVER THE PARKING LOT ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MAINE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-002-005- 006-011-015. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RB SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...RB/OKULSKI MARINE...RB/OKULSKI HYDROLOGY...BOGEL

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