Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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777 FXUS61 KCAR 230757 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 257 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track west of our region today as a weak secondary low forms in northern Maine. Low pressure will pass to our north tonight and Wednesday as high pressure builds in from central Canada. High pressure builds off of the mid-Atlantic coast early in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low pressure is currently moving northeast into the Great Lakes. As this happens a secondary low pressure system will develop over southern New England later today then move northeast across Maine this evening. Snow will gradually change to a mixture of rain and sleet across southern and coastal areas early this morning then over to rain later in the morning. Eventually the snow will change over to a mixture this afternoon in the north but most of the precipitation in the far north will be in the form of snow. For QPF have used a equal blend of the NAM and GFS. Precipitation type determined using the precipitation from thickness tool run on 50/50 blend of the NAM and GFS. For snow accumulation used snow ratio tool. Also expect some ice accumulation from freezing rain over most of the region away from the coast. Have used the FRAT Tool for ice accumulation. Expect mixed precipitation to change back to snow before ending late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 980mb sfc low wl be departing acrs ern Canada with an enhanced area of snow acrs the St. John Vly in the morning as cdfnt comes crashing thru. Strong rising motion wl act on lingering moisture and high snow ratios to produce a quick 1-2 inches acrs the Vly bfr mvg out by 15z. Temps wl fall drg the day on Wed with daytime highs likely to be around daybreak. Skies wl gradually clr fm south to north drg the aftn and with strong gradient remaining, along with steep low- lvl lapse rates, expect a windy day. Temps wl continue to plummet into Thur morning bfr rising to highs in the single digits acrs the north and into the teens for Downeast areas. Winds wl rmn strong Wed night into the day on Thur with wind chills dropping into the -20s by daybreak on Thursday acrs the North Woods. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The extndd pd starts out quiet with ridge axis building in fm the west on Friday at both the sfc and aloft. 1035mb high builds off of the mid-Atlantic coast early in the weekend with return flow moving in and lifting wmfnt thru the state on Sat as sfc low passes over James Bay. This may lead to a few snow/rain showers acrs the north in the aftn. Aft this time med range guidance begins to diverge significantly. 00z GFS bring a cdfnt thru on Sun with lgt showers along it as fropa occurs. 00z GFS and CMC dig large-scale H5 trof thru the midwest early in the week with cyclogenesis occurring late in the weekend ovr the sern U.S. How soon impacts can be felt fm moisture streaming nwrd out of the Gulf rmns up in the air but trended twd lkly pops and above Superblend fm Sunday into Tuesday. GFS has flat flow thru the pd with CMC more amplified and EC most amplified. High amnt of uncertainty still exists for latter half of the weekend into early next week with regard to timing and ptype. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect IFR/MVFR conditions today and tonight. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR expected Wed morning with best chc for shsn at FVE, CAR and PQI. VFR at BGR and BHB into Sat. VFR expected at all terminals fm Wed afternoon thru the end of the week, with northern terminals possibly dropping to MVFR/IFR on Sat with lgt snow showers once again. Gusty nw winds expected on Wed at all locations. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids. Expect increasing southeasterly winds today with the wind direction slowly veering into the south this evening. For waves: Based on spectral from 44027 southeasterly wind wave is the primary wave system. This wave group will continue to build today as wind increase. Expect off-shore wave heights to build to a maximum of around 15 feet/9-10 seconds later this evening then begin to slowly subside as winds continue to veer into the southwest. Have used the NWPS to initialize the waves. Will leave timing for gales in place. SHORT TERM: Expect SCA conds thru the end of the week with gusts aoa 25kts throughout the entire period. && .HYDROLOGY... Precipitation QPF across Downeast is expected to approach 1.5 inches by Tuesday night with most of this being in the form of rain. The combination of rainfall and snowmelt will result in rises on rivers and streams, especially Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Ice jams are in place on the Piscataquis and Pleasant Rivers as well as on the Kenduskeag Stream. There is concern that these ice jams could break up and move with the warmer temps and rainfall. This could lead to water backing up behind the jams leading to the possibility of flooding. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ003>006-010-011-031-032. Flood Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through late tonight for MEZ011-015>017-029>032. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MEZ015>017-029-030. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EST this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Gale Warning from noon today to midnight EST tonight for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar Hydrology...Bloomer

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