Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271104 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 704 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the area today then slide south of the region Saturday night. A cold front will move into the area Sunday and stall. The front will return northward Monday as a warm front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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655 AM Update... Clouds are hanging tough this morning per the latest IR satl imagery and obs. 06z NAM12 soundings continue show the moisture trapped at the 925mb level. The LAPS soundings support this as well. Decided to back up clearing by a few hrs using the latest NAM showing a later clearing trend. Added some drizzle across the Bangor region into the coast through 14z. Hrly temps were adjusted to fit the latest obs. Previous Discussion... IR satl imagery showed clouds hanging tough across the CWA early this morning w/low ceilings. NAM soundings showed moisture at teh 925mb level w/drier air aloft. The latest WV imagery supported this setup w/drier air trying to work its way down into the region from the n. The NAM showed clouds holding on longer through mid morning and then clearing. Decided to follow this trend for today. Surface analysis showed an inverted trof extending back the low passing so of Nova Scotia. Some of the mesoscale guidance such as the HRRR and WRF show some light rain showers affect eastern sections such as Washington County and even back across the western sections today. The NAM12 and GFS keep the area rain-free and decided to follow this trend. Temps will be warmer hitting the 60s region wide. The guidance shows an upper disturbance moves across the region tonight. This feature will be some scattered mid and high clouds across portions of the north and west. Overall, a mostly clear night setting up w/temps dropping back into low and mid 40s. Some areas across the far n and w could see upper 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The cold front will enter northern zones Sunday morning and reach as far south as a Greenville to Houlton line before stalling. Highs south of the front will reach the lower 70s with sunshine while upper 60s are anticipated in northern Aroostook County. The coast will be under the influence of onshore flow with cooler temperatures. At this point, there`s not much cooling aloft and little CAPE or shear with the front. As a result, will continue forecasting scattered showers in northern zones and not mention thunderstorms. That said, will have to closely monitor obs and guidance as Sunday draws closer for any signs of convection. When the front moves northward Sunday night into Monday, more showers can be expected. Elevated CAPE is currently not showing on Sunday night, but cannot be ruled out. The combination of a moist low level southerly flow and increasing upper level clouds on Monday with produce a cloudy and cooler day with the shower risk increasing in the afternoon as an occluded front draws closer. The front will cross the area Monday night with most precipitation in the evening. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled weather persists Tuesday into Thursday as shortwaves spin around an upper low in Ontario. The upper low will slowly drift towards the area later in the week and a drier west to northwest flow is expected to give a break to the precipitation on Friday. On Tuesday, a southerly flow will probably produce cloudy skies and minimize chances of surface-based convection on Tuesday afternoon/evening...although elevated instability is possible. On Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, conditions will be more conducive to afternoon and evening thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR this morning for all terminals. Conditions will improve to VFR by later this morning into tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Sunday for all terminals. On Sunday night, IFR cigs are expected for BGR and BHB while MVFR cigs will develop further north. These cigs continue into Monday morning, but lift to VFR by late morning. All terminals will trend towards IFR cigs in rain Monday night into Tuesday morning. Cigs will increase to MVFR Tuesday afternoon. Cigs will most likely go back towards IFR Tuesday night. VFR returns Wednesday for all sites. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA this morning as winds have started to come back up around 20 kts. Seas were running 6 to 8 ft. Conditions are expected to drop below 2-0 kts w/seas subsiding to 4-5 ft this afternoon into tonight. SHORT TERM: No significant weather is expected. A two to three foot swell will be present much of the period. Fog is possible Monday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...Hewitt/MCW Marine...Hewitt/MCW

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