Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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245 FXUS61 KCAR 270438 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1238 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will exit across the maritimes overnight while an occluded front approaches from the west. The occluded front will cross the region Tuesday. High pressure will build across the region from Labrador Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 12:37 AM Update...Showers are advancing toward the forecast area as an occluded front races east toward Maine. The 00Z CAR sounding was very dry at all levels with precipitable H20 of only 0.41", so it will take some time for the atmosphere to moisten up. Expect some showers to move into the CWA overnight, but for the most part the showers will be on the light side. Only minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast based on the midnight observations and the latest radar and near term model trends. Previous Discussion... The occlusion will weaken as it crosses the area Tuesday due to a strengthening ridge towards Labrador. This high and a weak low moving along the coast will induce a cool easterly flow that will limit Tuesday`s high temperatures to near 50F in the Crown of Maine. Highs will increase southward to near 60F for Bangor and Ellsworth. Most of the precipitation will likely be towards the coast where the low will track. Near the coast, pops remain categorical for much of the day, but even the Washington County coast will only receive 0.3 to 0.4 inches of rain. Towards the north, less than a tenth of an inch is forecast for Fort Kent and Presque Isle. As the front weakens and stalls over the area...and the easterly flow strengthens...low clouds, patchy fog and drizzle will develop in the afternoon for much of the area. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sfc low expected to be nearing Nova Scotia at the start of the pd. Erly flow wl be supplying low-lvl moisture to the region and wl lkly be trapped under inversion. Expect that rain wl begin to taper off fm west to east drg the ovrngt and as it does so, areas of drizzle and fog can be expected. Min temps on Tue mrng wl likely rmn in the 40s under extensive cld cvr and moisture. Nerly flow conts drg the day Wed with inversion contg to trap low- lvl moisture acrs CWA. Hv continued areas of drizzle acrs the region. Assuming this holds true, maxes on Wed may be too optimistic and wl need to be lowered by subsequent shifts. Pattern expected to continue to nr the end of the pd as upr low closes off ovr the Oh Vly. Details are uncertain with regard to showers chcs acrs the region thus hv gone with mainly drizzle thru the day on Thur as vry little frcg wl be present. Expect that temps wl settle out blo normal thru the short term. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Our focus toward the end of the week will be on a broad area of low pressure to out south, along the Mid-Atlantic coast, and how it interacts with high pressure to our north. Moisture from this low will likely push north far enough to bring clouds and some showers to Downeast areas Thursday night into Friday while the north remains partly cloudy. The moisture may push a bit further north on Saturday bringing showers to the central part of our area with cloud and some showers or patchy drizzle Downeast. Northern areas may become mostly cloudy Saturday as this moisture pushes north. The Mid-Atlantic surface low is then expected to weaken late in the weekend, but moisture may push even further north into northern areas on Sunday as the upper low begins to lift out of the midwest and into the northeast. This will keep Sunday into Sunday night unsettled with clouds and showers throughout the region. Some showers may linger into Monday as the upper low pushes off to our east and cooler air is pulled south across our region from Canada. A large area of high pressure should then follow bringing clearing and dry weather Tuesday through much of next week. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions will persist across the entire region into the early morning hours. The only exception could be locally variable conditions with any patchy fog across northeast areas. Conditions will then begin to lower to MVFR levels across central/Downeast portions of the forecast area late tonight. Conditions will lower to MVFR levels across northern areas through Tuesday afternoon. Generally expect MVFR/IFR conditions across central and Downeast portions of the forecast area Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Expect MVFR/IFR in drizzle and fog all terminals into the middle of the week as significant low level moisture remains locked across the state. Confidence in forecast is very low late week into the weekend with conditions either VFR or IFR as upper level low hangs back to the west. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Conditions are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels overnight into Tuesday. Visibilities will lower in rain and patchy fog Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Fog and drizzle expected once again Tue and Wed night over the waters. Winds and seas may come up to SCA criteria on Wed continuing through the end of the week, however confidence remains low. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/MCW Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...CB/MCW/Farrar Marine...CB/MCW/Farrar

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