Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280504 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 104 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region this evening then move to the east Sunday. A low in Quebec will drag a warm front across the area Sunday night, followed by a cold front on Monday. High pressure returns Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1:00 am Update: Have adjusted temperature, dew point and winds based on latest observations. No other changes. Previous discussion... High pressure wl build into the area tonight, shifting east into the Maritimes by morning. This wl allow return flow to set up as next system tracks thru Srn Quebec on Sunday. Wmfnt expected to lift north of the area Sun aftn/evng with showers accompanying the bndry thru. May see isold showers begin to dvlp by late mrng, overspreading the Crown of Maine drg the aftn. Hv added in isold thunder to lkly pop area in the aftn tho chcs look marginal at best. Only thing it has going for thunder chcs is 25-30kt low-lvl jet impinging into front as it lifts thru. Maxes tomorrow look to be just slightly cooler than tda as mocldy skies are fcst in return flow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers will become more numerous overnight Sunday night as low pressure slides by just to our north, dragging its attendant cold front in its wake into Monday. Guidance indicates there will be elevated instability out ahead of the front, along with a little jetlet rounding the base of the low. Therefore can`t rule out a rumble of thunder or two overnight. The front itself will cross the region in disjointed pieces on Monday, with the first wave coming early Monday morning. This will allow showers to decrease in coverage, but the threat for rain will linger till early afternoon as the secondary boundary and upper trough push through. Drier conditions follow Monday night and much of Tuesday as high pressure ridges over the area. A few showers may threaten over the Saint John Valley late in the day Tuesday ahead of the next approaching system, but coverage will be limited. Highs will be in the 70s both Monday and Tuesday with interior Downeast approaching 80. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... taste of fall for late week... A warm front will cross later Tuesday night with rain...most likely towards northern Aroostook County. The cold front associated with this low will cross Wednesday. In the aftermath of this low, a deep upper level trough will dig southward over New England with significantly cooler temperatures and low humidity Thursday into Saturday. The cool northwesterly flow will likely produce widespread clouds and some light rainshowers in northern zones and have gone below MOS guidance with highs only in the lower 60s in north of Houlton. Even towards Bangor and the coast, only upper 60s to lower 70s seem likely at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected through Sunday, but with pockets of MVFR developing at the northern terminals late in the day in showers. SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions will be likely in widespread showers Sunday night into early Monday morning. Things will improve to VFR through the morning hours, though MVFR ceilings may linger a bit across the northern sites. VFR will prevail Monday night and Tuesday, with no significant weather expected until Tuesday evening. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through Sunday. SHORT TERM: Headlines are not anticipated at this time as winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. However, a southeast swell looks to set up late Sunday night into Monday which could bring waves up to 4-5 ft, especially in the outer waters. Conditions appear marginal ATTM and so have opted to not issue an SCA, but later shifts will need to monitor for trends. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.