Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 292210 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 610 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPDATE 1809 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND WIND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE. CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY. FOR TONIGHT...STARTING OUT CLEAR AND COOL, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP LATER ON WILL BEGIN TO BRING A HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. ALONG W/THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM AND THE HRRR 3KM) HINTED AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PUSHING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TO BE RESTRICTED BELOW 925MBS AND VERY DRY ABOVE THE THAT LAYER, THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIMITED/SPOTTY AT BEST. ATTM, DECIDED TO HIT THE FOG HARDER FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AND THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY FOG W/THAT LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD. FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM QUEBEC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA W/THIS AREA DESTABILIZING QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR A WHILE KEEPING LLVLS STABLE FOR A TIME, BEFORE THINGS BREAKOUT AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT THROUGH THE 50S AND GO WELL INTO MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPES HITTING 700-1200 JOULES BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIS DROPPING TO -2 OR SO AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KTS. FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR N AND W. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS FORECAST TO BE HITTING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE FORCING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12K FT. SO HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. THE BEST LAPSE RATES RUN THROUGH QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR TSTMS MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/A SSW FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BEST WEATHER TO BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE BUT WONT MENTION QUITE YET. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST AREAS. EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY IMPROVING TO VFR ALL AREAS LATER SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK IN RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THINGS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECIDED TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY W/THE GUSTS. SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL APPROACHING 5-6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER ZONES BY 6 PM OR SO. FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO TRICKY NAVIGATION AS VSBYS COULD GO DOWN BELOW 1 NM. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

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