Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290710 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 310 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level disturbance will cross the area today. High pressure builds into the area tonight and Friday. Low pressure will pass south of the region Saturday. High pressure will build back toward the area early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Sfc low located south of Cape Cod is spreading pcpn into coastal zones as of 07z. Lgt pcpn is also falling to the north in assoc with departing wk s/wv and expect this wl come to an end in another couple of hrs as frcg departs. What may rmn is freezing drizzle as moisture evacuates dendrite layer and hv added to grids for ern Aroostook thru daybreak as sfc temps rmns nearly steady in the upr 20s. Areas of fog wl occur acrs entire CWA thru 12z bfr north winds increase in response to departing low well south of Nova Scotia, bcmg patchy into mid-mrng bfr dissipating completely. H5 trof dropping thru Quebec at this time wl bring an increase in showers drg the aftn acrs the north, tho it wl take until around noon for moisture to return in snow growth lyr thus drizzle and/or freezing drizzle wl be possible acrs nrn Somerset initially. Not expecting much in the way of pcpn tda with isold-sctd pops sufficing thru the end of the near term. Highs tda wl be slightly abv yda as airmass rmns stagnant. Mins tonight wl be cooler and closer to seasonal norms.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Ridging both surface and aloft will gradually build across the region from the west during the day Thursday. The ridging holds Thu night into Fri, with low pressure to track east across the OH Valley. An isolated snow shower is possible Thu across the Crown of Maine, mainly in the morning into the early afternoon, but otherwise a dry day. The sky will be partly sunny across far northern areas and mostly sunny to the south of the Katahdin Region. Highs will range from the mid 30s in the far north in the Saint John Valley to the low 40s in the Greater Bangor Region. Mainly clear Thu night with a sunny start to the day Fri. High clouds will increase from the west in the afternoon in advance of low pressure moving across the OH Valley. The combination of a clear sky and light/calm wind will likely allow some of the normally colder northwest valleys to drop to zero to 10 above Thu night. Otherwise, mostly teens in the north and 20s toward the coast. Highs Friday will be just a few degrees below average for the end of the March, with highs in the m/u 30s north to low 40s Downeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Low pressure in the OH Valley early Fri eve moves east and is expected to be off the NJ Coast by 12Z Sat. The models and model ensembles from the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian are in better agreement this morning that the low passes south of Nova Scotia with QPF amounts averaging around 0.50" along the Downeast Coast, and dropping off rapidly to the north. Most of the precipitation looks to be in the form of snow, although it may mix with some sleet or rain at times Saturday afternoon along/near the coast. At this time it loos like an advisory level event for the Downeast Zones, and perhaps as far north as the central highlands, with an inch or less, and perhaps no snow in the Saint JOhn Valley. Did lower the highs some across the Downeast zones Saturday and went below guidance as it will likely be snowing most of the day. As the low pulls away Sat night into Sun and upper trough crosses the area with isolated to scattered rain and snow showers. High pressure builds back into the area early next week with dry weather and seasonable temperatures for early April on Mon and Tue.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR restrictions at all terminals thru 13z-15z before slowly improving to MVFR as northerly winds kick in. Confidence too low to include precip at this time though cannot rule out isold IFR vsbys thru the course of the day as an upper level trough swings through. SHORT TERM: Pockets of MVFR ceilings may persist into early afternoon Thu at the northern terminals. Otherwise, VFR expected Through Fri eve. Conditions will likely lower to MVFR and eventually LIFR/IFR in snow/mixed precipitation later Fri night and Sat at KBGR and KBHB. Conditions may lower to MVFR at the northern terminals during the day Sat. Predominately MVFR at the terminals during the day Sunday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA levels today but increase this evening with wind gusts approaching 25kts with marginal seas right around 5ft. Small craft advisory in effect starting at 00z tonight. SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory has been issued through 00z Fri. The next potential SCA will be later Fri night into Sat as low pres passes south of the waters.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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3.0" of snow was observed at Caribou yesterday. This broke the daily snowfall record for 3/28 of 2.1" set in 2005. Today will be the 119th consecutive day with a foot or more of snow on the ground at Caribou. The record of 120 consecutive days was set during the winter of 1968-1969.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Farrar/CB Marine...Farrar/CB Climate...CB

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