Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 101337 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 937 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE 0935 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE...NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES...LOWER HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE 70S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW AND MAY APPROACH 80F IN THE DOWN EAST REGION. TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S IN THE ALLAGASH AND LOWER 50S FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DOWN EAST IS EXPECTED TO RECORD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A NICE ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK AND START TO THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRI WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION FRI BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. IT SHOULD BE SUNNY OR AT LEAST M/SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLY LOW HUMIDITY. AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO RETREAT EAST SAT IT WILL BEGIN TO BECOME A BIT MORE HUMID WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. AFTER A SEASONABLE NIGHT FRI NIGHT TEMPERATURES SAT WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE L/M 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WE HAVE HAD ALTERNATING SPELLS OF DRY AND WET WEATHER THIS SUMMER...AND THIS PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO CHANGE AS THE NEXT UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER ARRIVES SUN. AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN ONTARIO AT 12Z SUN MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z TUE AND LIFTS NE ACROSS QUEBEC WED. THE RETURN FLOW INCREASES SUN MAKING FOR A MORE HUMID DAY. SUN WILL LIKELY STILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...BUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHETHER A LEAD SHORT WAVE WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT CAN AID IN GENERATING SHOWERS. WARM AND MUGGY FOR MON INTO TUE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THEM. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BY TUE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT IS TOO SOON TO SAY WHETHER THERE WILL BE MUCH OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY WED ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW DAYS OF PLEASANT WEATHER MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUN AND MON IN -SHRA/-TSHRA. ALSO POSSIBLE THAT WITH THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THAT LOW STRATUS/FOG COULD AFFECT AREAS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: REMAINING AREAS OF FOG WILL EXIT THE WATERS THIS MORNING. HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TOWARDS 3 FEET DURING THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR A SCA FOR SEAS BY MON NIGHT WITH A LONG FETCH OF SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS LIKELY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

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