Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 270243 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1043 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east of the area tonight as low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes. Low pressure will cross the area Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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1035 PM Update... Made some adjustments to the pops to bring percentages up across the southern sections such as sw Piscataquis County and southern Penobscot County. 00Z UA showed high pres ridge axis still well w of the region w/dry air in place. Satl imagery showed mid/high clouds across the north while clouds deck was lowering this evening. Latest radar trends showing returns showing up across the western section edging ene. Most of the activity was aloft as llvls very dry. The latest run of the HRRR mesoscale model doing well w/the precip placement. A frontal boundary was in place across the region and radar returns were lining up along this boundary per the 00z sfc analysis. Temps look like they are going to be warmer than previously forecast and adjustments were made to bring them overnight. Will monitor the coast as some freezing precip is possible during the morning hrs before going over to rain in the afternoon. Previous Discussion... Mainly clear skies this evening will give way to increasing clouds tonight in advance of an approaching warm front. The air mass across the region is very dry with dew points down around zero across most of the region as of mid afternoon. The very low dew points and light winds will allow for some radiational cooling this evening before clouds thicken up after midnight. The coldest reading are likely to be across far northeast Aroostook County and the St John Valley where lows are expected to fall into the single digits above zero before clouds thicken later tonight. With the very dry low level air in place, it will also take a while for precipitation to reach the ground, so not expecting precipitation to develop until well after midnight across the west and probably not until around or a bit after day break across Northeast Aroostook and the St John Valley. Overrunning precipitation will continue overspread the region early Monday. Across the north the precipitation should remain mainly snow much of the day. Across central and interior downeast areas, expect snow to mix with sleet and freezing rain by afternoon. Across the downeast coast, expect a brief period of mixed precipitation in the morning to transition to plain rain by afternoon. A weak area of low pressure developing along the front to our south will cross the gulf of Maine during Monday afternoon, keeping the low level cold air in place. Thus, have leaned with cooler mos numbers for highs on Monday. Winter Weather advisories have been issued for all of Northern Maine for Monday. With the low level cold air expected to hang tough into the afternoon, have also included the Penobscot region and greater Bangor region, as well as all of interior downeast in the Winter Weather Advisory. There could be a mix even along the downeast coast into Monday morning, but thinking there may be enough warming for a transition to all rain by afternoon, thus have not included in the advisory at time. Highs on Monday are expected to range from the upper 20s across the north to the low to mid 30s along the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A large but poorly organized storm system will be moving into the area Monday evening with one low center along the coast and another to our west. Temperatures Monday evening will be warm enough for some light rain and drizzle Downeast. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is likely across the north with all snow possible across the far north near the St. John Valley. Precipitation will generally be light, and will diminish late at night as one low center near the coast moves east and another remains back across Quebec. As the Quebec low crosses the area on Tuesday, some rain showers will be scattered over the region. Any showers may be mixed with some sleet or snow pellets across the far north with little or no accumulation expected. Some light rain, and snow showers across the north, may continue into Tuesday night as a weak occlusion crosses the area. Drier air should then begin moving into the region on Wednesday. However, low pressure consolidating south of Nova Scotia will have an inverted trough extending back across New Brunswick on Wednesday. If this inverted trough sets up further west, some scattered rain and snow showers could be possible. For now, will only have sight chance of snow or rain showers on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure will move away to the east Wednesday night into Thursday as gusty northwesterly winds follow. The air will only be moderately cooler with highs Thursday expected to be in the 30s north and 40s Downeast. High pressure will then build over the area Friday into Saturday bringing plenty of sunshine. Low pressure will be tracking off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday, but should track far enough south to miss our area. Generally dry and mild weather is then expected late next weekend as upper level ridging along the east coast combined with low pressure over central Canada brings a southwesterly flow across the area. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR through most of tonight. Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR 09z to 12z, then to IFR in a wintry mix on Monday at all terminals. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds and snow and rain are expected Monday night through Tuesday. IFR conditions Tuesday evening may improve to MVFR late at night, then VFR on Wednesday. VFR conditions are likely on Thursday as high pressure approaches. VFR conditions in high pressure are expected on Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels tonight. Winds/seas will begin to increase to small craft advisory levels by late Monday afternoon. Visibilities will decrease to 1 to 3 nm in precipitation late tonight through Monday. SHORT TERM: A SCA will be needed Monday evening for southeasterly winds gusting up to 30 kt ahead of approaching low pressure. Winds will diminish late Monday night into Tuesday. Some fog may limit visibilities late Monday night into Tuesday as surface low pressure crosses the waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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