Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 270455 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region Saturday then move to the east Sunday. A low in Quebec will drag a warm front across the area Sunday night, followed by a cold front on Monday. High pressure returns Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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12:50 am Update...Have adjusted the temperature and dew point. No other changes. Previous discussion... Convection has dvlpd due to diurnal htg and CAPES upward of 2000 J acrs nrn Maine per SPC mesoanalysis page but dry air aloft has prevented convection from growing high enuf to generate lightning and expect this wl continue to be the case this evng. Wl keep sctd pops in for the next svrl hrs acrs the north with rmndr of CWA dry this evng. Fropa wl occur tonight lkly mvg offshore arnd 06z. Skies wl clr in wake of passage tho some upslope may result in stratus at times ovrngt acrs nrn zones. Dwpts acrs Quebec bhnd front are in the m50s and expect these wl work their way into CWA tonight with relatively drier airmass drg the day tomorrow. Hipres builds into the area on Saturday with light north flow, drier air and sunny skies. Max temps wl continue to run abv normal in the m70s for the north and arnd 80F acrs the south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure crests over the area Saturday night with temperatures dropping quickly until just after midnight when higher clouds arrive and thicken for the rest of the night. Expect upper 40s north and low to mid 50s south. The clouds will thicken through the day on Sunday with highs in the 70s and low humidity. Showers will likely break out in the northwest portion of the state later in the afternoon and have increased pops to reflect this expectation. On Sunday night, a warm front will cross the area with a deepening low in Quebec. Most of the precip will be with the warm front and some elevated convection is possible. Have not added isolated thunderstorms at this time, but will have to continue evaluating the situation. The warm front will bring more humid conditions for Monday ahead of a cold front which will sag southward through the day. Will continue going with chance pops for showers on Monday with no thunderstorms as the upper trough should push east before peak afternoon heating. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure builds Monday night and Tuesday with dry conditions and lower humidity. Temperatures will continue mild Tuesday, but guidance is now indicating a stronger system for later Tuesday night and Wednesday which resulted in increased pops for Tuesday night and Wednesday and fall-like temperatures for late week. Will continue with MOS temps for late week rather than going with the colder deterministic solutions on temps. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions through 00z Sunday. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Saturday night and Sunday. IFR cigs in rain will likely develop Sunday night into Monday morning for all terminals. Embedded thunderstorms are possible Sunday night. VFR returns Monday afternoon into Tuesday night. Another frontal system will likely bring MVFR conditions late Tuesday night into Wednesday with a chance of some IFR cigs. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The Wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through Saturday. SHORT TERM: Areas of fog are possible on the waters later Sunday night into Monday ahead of a cold front. An SCA is possible Wednesday due to both long period south swell and winds. SCAs may also be possible late next week as the first fall-like air mass arrives. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone

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