-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 251031
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
631 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN MAINE TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CHALLENGE WILL BE RAFL AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT.

630 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE HIGHER POPS(100%) FURTHER NORTH INTO
CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND 06Z
NAM12. 1ST SLUG OF RAFL MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND YET
ANOTHER BATCH IS MOVING N INTO THE DOWNEAST FROM THE ATLC OCEAN.
RAFL INTENSIFIES ON THE THETA E RIDGE GRADIENT WHICH WAS SITUATED
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
BATCH MOVING UP FROM THE DOWNEAST IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND W/SOME
HEAVIER RAFL EMBEDDED AS IT HITS THIS THETA E RIDGE. 06-18Z QPF
WAS ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RAFL WHICH WILL TIP SOME GAGES TO
NEAR 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE LAST 42 HRS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE SFC FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE
OF ME W/LOW PRES SLOWLY MOVING N FROM SE MA. LATEST RADAR TREND
SHOWED RAFL W/1 AREA MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE(EAGLE LAKE INTO
FORT KENT) AND THE 2ND AREA WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN AREAS
THAT ALREADY RECEIVED A GOOD DOSE OF RAFL ON FRIDAY. ENHANCED
ECHOES ON THE RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAFL AND ENHANCED CLOUDS ON
THE SATL IR SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. THE NAM(00Z) AND ITS COUNTERPART
THE NAM12 HAD THESE AREAS MAPPED OUT QUITE WELL AS DID THE 00Z
GFS. EVEN THE 12Z ECMWF WAS IN LINE BUT DUE TO ITS COARSENESS,
KEPT THE AREA MORE BROAD. DECIDED ON THE NAM/NAM12 WHICH SHOWED
THE FIRST SLUG OF RAFL LIFTING OUT AND A RESPITE FOR A TIME BEFORE
THE NEXT SLUG OF SIGNIFICANT RAFL HEADS N LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
W/THE SFC LOW LIFTING UP FROM THE S. QPF WAS ADJUSTED USING THE
GFS/NAM12/HPC WHICH SHOWS 2 AREAS OF HEAVIER QPF W/ONE AREA ON THE
WESTERN SIDE AND ANOTHER ALONG THE ME-NB BORDER AS DEFORMATION
BANDING AND STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING SETS UP. PLUS, SFC & UPPER
LEVEL FRONT WILL ADD TO LIFT/CONVERGENCE WHICH IN TURN WILL
ENHANCE THE RAFL, HEAVY ATIM TIMES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED AND ADDITIONAL(HEAVIER RAFL) WILL
LEAD TO RUNOFF INTO STREAMS AND RIVERS. THIS IS ADDRESSED FURTHER
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
FROM WHERE THEY ARE W/THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE AS
WAA AT 925-850MBS COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO HIT ABV 50F.
OTHERWISE, 40S WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AND THE NNE WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE FALL THAN LATE SPRING.

FOR TONIGHT, LOW PRES SLOWLY LIFTS N AS IT GETS CAPTURED UNDER THE
UPPER LOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, RAFL TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. FOLLOWED A GFS/NAM12/SERF BLEND FOR
THE POPS WHICH SHOWS 100% THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN THE AREA OF
STEADY/STRATIFORM RAFL LIFTS N WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS
GET UNDER A MORE SHOWERY REGIME. STAYED W/THE BLEND MENTIONED
ABOVE FOR QPF WHICH SHOWED AN ADDITIONAL 0.50-1.00 INCHES OF RAFL
FROM 12Z. POCKETS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS OF SOMERSET AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BACK AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COULD DROP INTO THE MID 30S BACK
ACROSS THE ME-QUEBEC BORDER. 925MBS TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF
ARE FCST TO DROP TO -1C WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME WET SNOW.
DECISION WAS TO CARRY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
NEAR THE WESTERN/NWRN ME BORDER.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD
WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE MARITIMES MONAY. EXPECT RAIN SUNDAY
GIVING WAY TO SHOWERS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH.
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER STRONG UPPER LOW INTO MONDAY. FOR POPS
AND QPF HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12...GFS40...SREF...GEM AND ECMWF.
WILL MAKE SOME MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS TO INCREASE
HIGHEST POP NUMBERS. FOR WINDS HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND GMOS. TEMPERATURE GRIDS GENERATED WITH BIAS CORRECTED
NAM. FOR DEWPOINT USED GEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH
OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE THURSDAY. HAVE INITIALIZED ALL GRIDS
WITH GMOS. WILL ADJUST POPS AND SKY COVER. ALSO WILL ADJUST
TEMPRATURE TO BETTER FIT THREE HOUR MOS TEMPERATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING(N
OF KHUL), FROM KHUL ON S TO KBHB, IFR CONTINUING TODAY W/A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR LATER THIS MORNING. TONIGHT, ALL TAF SITES WILL
DROP BACK TO IFR W/THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY. COULD SEE GUSTS HIT 25 KTS
TODAY W/SURGE OF LLVL JET AT 850MBS(35KTS), BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE HEADLINE CAN BE TRANSITIONED OVER TO A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
TODAY BY THE DAYCREW. USED THE NAMSWAN FOR WAVE HEIGHTS GOING TO 7
FT LATER TODAY AND THEN DROPPING OFF LATER TONIGHT. THE NAMSWAN
WAS WAS DOING QUITE WELL THIS MORNING PER 06Z OB. NAM12/GFS BLEND
WAS USED FOR THE WINDS WHICH KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 KTS INTO
THIS EVENING. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF GUSTS TO
25 KTS.


SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH A
50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40. WILL USE 125 PERCENT OF
SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUST SPEED. WILL ALSO LOWER SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED FEW KNOTS DUE TO SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE INTO SUNDAY. FOR
WAVES: LONG FETCH DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD PRIOR
TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LONG PERIOD WAVES
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SPECTRAL DATA FROM
WNA INDICATES SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (AT 9 TO 10
SECONDS) THROUGH MONDAY. WILL GENERATE WAVES WITH NAM/SWAN THROUGH
1200Z MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO WNA/4. EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE
FIELD TO FALL BELOW 5 FEET MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME CONCERN FOR THE WESTERN AREAS SUCH AS NORTHERN SOMERSET AND
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY AND ALSO FOR THE EASTERN SIDE OF MAINE LIKE SE
AROOSTOOK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAFL COULD LEAD
TO SOME MINOR ISSUED MAINLY LOWLANDS. PONDING OF WATER WILL BE
MAIN CONCERN. THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN 1-2+ INCHES OVER THE
LAST 36 HRS AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAFL COULD OCCUR. THE
MAINSTEM RIVERS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HANDLE THE RAFL FOR THE MOST
PART. BIG BLACK RIVER IN WESTERN AROOSTOOK AND THE PISCATAQUIS
RIVER BASIN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TODAY AS WILL THE ST. CROIX
RIVER AND SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS/STREAMS IN WASHINGTON COUNTY.
THESE WATERSHEDS HISTORICALLY CAN FILL UP FAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR HANCOCK COUNTY. HIGH TIDE IS
AT 1530Z THIS MORNING AND THE TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE 11.77 FT. A
SURGE OF 0.5 FT IS EXPECTED. MINOR OVERWASH EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG
SEAWALL ROAD. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT OVERWASH COULD OCCUR AGAIN
THIS EVENING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 03Z. THE DAYCREW WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS FURTHER.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ029.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT