Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290807 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 307 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW STUBBORN BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN NORTHERN ZONES AS STREAMERS ADVECT ACROSS THE ALLAGASH FROM THE ST LAWRENCE TOWARDS HOULTON. THESE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IT WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT SOME THIN CUMULUS WILL FORM IN NORTHERN ZONES WITH OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER. THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 20F NORTH AND THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP OFF SATURDAY EVENING. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...OVERRUNNING CLOUDINESS WILL THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A RATHER STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF OVER 50 KT BY LATER IN THE NIGHT. WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN ZONES. FOLLOWING THE GFS...WILL GO WITH OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE. MEASURABLE SNOW WILL ONLY BE A FACTOR IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. JUST NORTH OF BANGOR...FOR SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF PENOBSCOT COUNTIES...THE CONCERN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS COLD AIR HANGS ON IN THE USUAL CORRIDOR FROM DEXTER TOWARDS MILLINOCKET. FURTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING. NONETHELESS...THE COLD SURFACES AND DRIZZLE COULD STILL CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR BANGOR AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY FOR A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. THE SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE AREAS OF FOG IN UPSLOPE AREAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NEAR JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND THE KATAHDIN REGION NORTH WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS THAT THERE COULD BE A CHANGEOVER TO A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS MID-LATE MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRETTY QUICKLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY FALL FROM MID-LATE MORNING ON. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE MON NIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL IN A FEW SPOTS. A SHARPLY COLDER AIR MASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -20C OR LOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY 12Z TUE. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND WIND WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING NEARLY AS COLD AS THE AIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT UNDER A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND REGIME. THE STRONGEST SFC HIGH SO FAR THIS WINTER BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY MAKING FOR A DRY AND COD DAY. THE HIGH QUICKLY EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE NIGHT WITH A RAPID TRANSITION INTO A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. LOW TEMPS IN MOST AREAS WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE EVENING WITH TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF AND LIKELY RISE SOME OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE WITH SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR OUTSIDE OF EARLY AM SNOW SHOWERS AT HUL AND SOME MVFR CIGS FROM HUL NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN LATER TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS...FOLLOWED BY IFR IN SNOW FROM PQI NORTHWARD. SHORT TERM: A PERIOD OF IFR LIKELY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SUN MORNING IN SNOW WITH MVFR DOWN EAST. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE FOR A TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IFR POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY IN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG. MOSTLY MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MON EVENING DOWN EAST...BUT MVFR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REACH SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE GALE WATCH FOR SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AS THERE WILL BE A STRONG JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AFTER A PERIOD OF GALES A SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED INTO TUE MORNING. && .CLIMATE...AN ADDITIONAL 0.2" OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT CARIBOU YESTERDAY WHICH PUSHED THE MONTHLY TOTAL TO 28.1". THIS NOW TIES WITH 1986 FOR THE 3RD SNOWIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...MCW/CB MARINE...MCW/CB CLIMATE...CB

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