Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271254 AAA AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Caribou ME Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME 854 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will nose into the region from Canada today. Low pressure will move out of southern New England toward the area late tonight with precipitation developing from south to north. Snow will be possible over higher elevations with several inches possible over mountain peaks. Precipitation moves out briefly Friday night and Saturday before another system moves through late Saturday bringing another chance for precipitation. High pressure then builds over the region for Monday and into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 853 AM Update: Forecast generally in good shape this morning. Primary changes are to raise temperatures based on early morning observations...and update PoPs in line with recent high res guidance that suggest a few ocean-enhanced showers are possible this afternoon vicinity MDI as flow turns onshore with good llevel lapse rates. Previous discussion below... Radar still indicating a few weak showers that just do not seem to want to go away...but the trend has been for them to weaken. Expect them to die off completely by sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Weak high pressure pushing in from the north will bring an end to any shower activity and diminish cloud cover a bit. The respite will be short lived though as clouds from approaching system begin to work their way into the forecast area by late afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Long term period begins with surface low pressure centered over lake Ontario and associated precipitation shield extending eastward over New Hampshire and into extreme southern Maine. By 06z Friday we start to see a secondary low developing over southern New England near Rhode Island and a surface trough linking that low with the low over lake Ontario. Precipitation shield at this time should extend northward through the Capitol district of Maine. By 12z Friday morning we should see an energy transfer from the Great Lakes low to the southern New England low as it deepens and moves into the Gulf of Maine. Precipitation by this time will likely extend well into the forecast area. 18z Friday has the low wrapped up pretty tightly with a strong pressure gradient in place along the Downeast coast and precipitation falling in the same area. By 00z Saturday the system begins to weaken and pull off into the Canadian maritimes. The models are producing some rather different solutions with this system...especially as it pertains to precipitation amounts and type. The NAM brings the precipitation further north and is trying to produce upwards of a foot of snow near Millinocket. The GFS keeps the bulk of the precipitation further south over warmer temperatures and mainly in the form of rain. It is looking more and more likely that extreme northern portions of Maine may not see much in the way of precipitation at all. The best chance for accumulating snow remains over northern Somerset and Piscataquis counties. Once the system clears the area another system will move through Saturday night. The models are quite a bit weaker with this system than the 12z runs were showing...but it still looks like northern Maine could see some shower activity. High pressure builds over the region for Sunday and Monday before another system approaches late Tuesday. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect some MVFR/IFR cigs early this morning improving to VFR by mid morning. Conditions will deteriorate quickly late tonight and into Friday morning with IFR/LIFR conditions becoming widespread. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions improve late Friday night and into Saturday but will likely return as another system approaches Saturday night and into Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No flags expected. SHORT TERM: Will continue Gale Watch for the waters late tonight and Friday as winds increase as low pressure moves across the Gulf of Maine. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term Update...Arnott/GYX is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.