Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 270633 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 233 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An occluded front will cross the region today. An area of low pressure will develop in the Gulf of Maine today and will move east of Nova Scotia tonight. Low pressure will pass south of the region Wednesday. High pressure will build into the region Wednesday through Friday from the north. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The day begins with upper lows across the northern Great Lakes and northern Gulf of Saint Lawrence with weak mid level ridging across maine. The pattern breaks down as the Canadian low pulls east and the Great Lakes low drops down to the vicinity of Chicago by 12Z Wednesday. There will remain a weakness aloft to the north of the area. At the surface, high pressure over northern Quebec settles down into western labrador tonight. A 994mb low over lake Superior this morning drops south and weakens to 1008mb across southern Lake Michigan tonight. An occluded front will weaken as it moves into Maine today. A weak secondary low is expected to form in the Gulf of Maine today and scoots east of Nova Scotia tonight. Ridging and a cold air damming pattern sets up across Maine tonight. A very weak wind regime this morning will give way to increasing northeast low level flow this afternoon into tonight. Expect that light rain moves across the area this morning, likely continuing along coastal areas, especially washington County into the afternoon. QPF is expected to be quite light, and on the order of several hundredths of an inch to a couple tenths of an inch for most areas. A bit more is possible along the immediate coast where 2 to 4 tenths of an inch are possible along coastal Washington County. Temperatures this afternoon will be on the cool side with highs 50 to 55 degrees across the Crown of Maine with 55 to 60 degrees common across the Down East Region. Tonight will feature lots of clouds along with patchy fog and drizzle. The extensive cloud cover and northeast flow will keep lows mostly in the 40s region wide. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Large upper low pressure will continue to spin across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley through mid week, while an upper ridge of high pressure noses into New England. A shortwave will attempt to sink south out of Canada, but the aforementioned upper ridge will cause it to be shunted to the east. Meanwhile, high pressure dominate at the surface. Expect Wednesday will be a gloomy day as moisture streams into the region on easterly flow and becomes trapped under subsidence aloft. While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, expect the main weather element to be patchy drizzle due to plentiful low-level moisture. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 50s to around 60 can be expected. Low pressure will move by well to our south Wednesday night and may result in scattered showers over far Downeast areas, but the main effect will be increasing winds as the pressure gradient tightens, particularly along the coast. Lows will range from around 40 in the north to around 50 south and along the coast. Thursday should see some improvement as winds become more northerly behind the low, though skies will be only partly sunny at best. A few showers will still be possible, mainly in the Central Highlands down to the coast. Highs will be similar to Wednesday, perhaps a couple of degrees warmer. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Although the GFS and ECMWF seem to have come into better agreement early in the period, the discrepancies grow over time. The main difference is the handling of an upper low, especially heading into early next week. This feature is shown by both operational models to be positioned over the Ohio River Valley Thursday night, and both lift it back northward toward the Great Lakes heading into the weekend. Heading into next week, the low looks to slide eastward with the GFS the faster and weaker of the models. Regardless, moisture will gradually lift northward ahead of the low, especially toward the weekend as the low drifts further east. Upper ridging should keep the worst of any rain away through Friday though a few showers can`t be ruled out along the coast. The best chances for rain really don`t arrive until Sunday or Monday, depending on which solution you prefer. Have kept pops at low chance at most due to the uncertainty. Temperatures will be seasonable through the period, with highs in the low to mid 60s and lows ranging from around 40 north to the mid and upper 40s south. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Ceilings will lower this morning to MVFR at the northern terminals and to IFR at the Down East terminals. Little change likely tonight with predominately IFR ceilings Down East, and low MVFR to at times IFR at the northern terminals. SHORT TERM: Lots of low clouds will keep conditions MVFR across the region Wednesday and Wednesday night, with local IFR possible in patchy drizzle. Ceilings will slowly rise Thursday, perhaps rising to above 3000 ft by 18z or so. VFR will likely prevail heading into Friday, but more ceilings in the MVFR are expected for the weekend, especially along the coast where showers will also be possible. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. The wind will begin to freshen up out of the northeast later tonight, and seas will begin to slowly build as high pressure builds to the north of the waters and low pressure passes off the mid Atlantic coast. SHORT TERM: Winds and waves will increase through the day Wednesday into Wednesday night as low pressure moves south of the waters. Gusts to around 30 kt and waves of 5-7 ft are expected, so a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. Conditions will gradually improve on Thursday with winds dropping below 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas are expected to remain at or above 5 ft through Thursday night, however. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...CB/Hastings Marine...CB/Hastings

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