Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 221920 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 320 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... DAYTIME HEATING, ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND SOME VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS THE REGION AS CAN BE DETECTED ON RADAR. THESE SHOWERS ARE QUITE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN MEANING MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT TO BE DRY WITH ANY SHOWERS SHORT LIVED FOR AREAS THAT DO SEE THEM. THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF HEATING AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN HOWEVER DO EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST DUE TO THE MOIST NE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR 50 IN THE NORTH AND IN THE MID 50S SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA BRINGING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT SOME PRECIP OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO ONLY RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY SHOWERS REMAINING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A VERY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE TO BRING DRIER AIR IN. THE WEAKLY DOWNSLOPING BREEZE AND AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN. A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND THE BREEZE TURNS WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. DRIER AIR AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH COMBINED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE STATE WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM WEATHER, MOSTLY SUNNY AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S IN MANY AREAS. LOW TO MID 80S CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DOWNEAST AND A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY OVER THE NORTH AS A BIT OF MOISTURE STRAYS ALONG THE NORTHERN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THE GFS WERE RIGHT WE WOULD HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WOULD BRING COOLER CONDITIONS THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO JUST A LITTLE COOLER WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: A PERIOD OF MVFR IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT FOR KBGR AND KBHB DUE TO LOW CEILINGS WITH OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN ANY PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE AT NIGHT AND AROUND DAWN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND THEN SLIDES SOUTH OF THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/BLOOMER MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/BLOOMER

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