Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 232210 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 610 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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540 PM UPDATE: FCST 6 HRLY QPF FOR TNGT THRU FRI WAS RE-DONE WITH POPS BASED ON THIS QPF DISTRIBUTION RE-CALCULATED...RESULTING IN AREAS WE XPCT SIG RNFL (WHICH IS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FA) HAVING 100 PERCENT POPS FCST THRU THESE PTNS OF THESE PDS. WE ALSO INTRODUCED ISOLD THUNDER TO DOWNEAST AREAS INTO THIS EVE BASED ON SAT IMAGERY AND LGTNG DETECTION SHOWING SPORADIC LGTNG STRIKES MOVG TOWARD DOWNEAST ME FROM THE GULF OF ME. WHATS LEFT OF ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE TNGT...BUT WE WILL MONITOR THIS IN CASE WE NEED TO XTND THIS MENTION LATER INTO THE NGT. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY INTENSE RN BANDING MOVG NW FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY LATER THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY MOVG NWRD INTO CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF NE ME LATER OVRNGT. SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH INTENSITY WILL BE LEFT TO THIS BAND BY ERLY FRI MORN...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND SPCLY 12 AND 18Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS MUCH HEAVIER WITH QPF THEN CORRESPONDING NAM...SREF AND EVEN TWICE THE GFS ENSM QPF OVRNGT INTO FRI. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND SPREAD OF THESE SOLUTIONS... WE TRIED TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU THE OVRNGT TO UN- MODIFIED FCST LOWS FOR ERLY FRI MORN BASED ON TRENDS SEEN FROM 5 PM OBSVD TEMPS FROM THE PREV FCST OF HRLY TEMPS AT THIS HR. ORGNL DISC: A LOW SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SATELLITE...AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT IS BECOMING COLD CORE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL PLACE THE LOW JUST SE OF CAPE COD...WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL MAINE. ALL MEMBER CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST QPF FALLING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST...AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. BY TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. TAKING THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...EAST OF CAPE COD...SOUTH OF EASTPORT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW TRACK EAST TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER NRN MAINE...CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS SW AND WRN MAINE. LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED 80 PERCENT HPCQPF...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOOK FOR RAIN TO FINALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM KICKS OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST MAINE. DRY DAY IN STORE FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS LIKELY BEING OVER NORTHERN MAINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WARMER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT US LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST HITTING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER, DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW IMPROVEMENTS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR BGR AND BHB. SHORT TERM: LINGERING MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN MAINE. VFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 AM. SHORT TERM: NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OF 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THIS TIME THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...VJN/FOISY MARINE...VJN/FOISY HYDROLOGY...

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