Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 110341 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1041 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold high pressure will build across the region tonight then move out into the Atlantic Sunday. Low pressure from the Great Lakes region will approach Sunday night, redevelop along the Maine coast on Monday, then move east across the maritimes on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1040 pm update... With clds still impacting CWA tonight and winds likely to keep from decoupling hv bumped mins up by a few degrees areawide. Lowest dwpts are at -1F in the St. John Vly with most ob sites in the immediate vicinity well abv 0F. Single digits still progged for nrn areas with low teens along the immediate coast. Outlying vly areas may drop blo zero but these locales wl be the exception rather than the rule. No other chgs needed at this time. Prev discussion blo... Overnight, temperatures should drop to subzero readings north of a Topsfield to Millinocket line. Expect single digits elsewhere except on the coast where low teens are forecast. The challenge in the forecast will be winds as the high will stay west and the resulting pressure gradient could keep winds from becoming calm. Cirrus cloud cover will also be present. These could prevent the boundary layer from decoupling. Did drop temperatures from the previous package by several degrees and below all consensus guidance packages. With this Arctic air mass and the relatively mild temperatures so far this season, the bias- corrected guidance seemed the worst. There is some risk that the normally colder, sheltered northern sites could drop towards -10F, but probably not lower. For Sunday, the guidance continues to be solid in bringing highs up to the mid- upper teens north and lower 20s for Bangor and Down East region. Around round of stratocu is possible for Sunday afternoon in Aroostook County, but overall, little cloud cover is expected since the high overrunning clouds with Monday`s storm should hold off until evening. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will exit east across the maritimes early Sunday night, while low pressure crossing the Great Lakes draws a warm front north toward the region. Clouds will increase early Sunday night, with overrunning snow expanding northeast across the forecast area later Sunday night. Overnight snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible across southwest portions of the forecast area overnight Sunday, tapering to less than an inch across northeast areas. The Great Lakes low will weaken while moving east Sunday, with a secondary low developing across the region and moving toward the maritimes. However, uncertainty still exists regarding whether the secondary low develops along the coast or southward across the Gulf of Maine. A track closer to the coast would bring warmer air onshore which could allow the snow to mix with or change to rain along the Downeast coast. A more offshore track would keep colder temperatures along the coast with precipitation remaining mostly snow. Generally expect precipitation to remain in the form of snow across the remainder of the forecast area Monday with additional snow accumulations expected though exact amounts are still uncertain. The deeper moisture will begin to move northeast later Monday afternoon allowing precipitation to begin diminishing across southwest portions of the forecast area. However, patchy freezing drizzle could occur across these areas with the loss of deeper moisture. The low will exit across the maritimes Monday night. Could still have lingering wrap around snow across mostly northern and eastern portions of the forecast area early Monday night where additional light snow accumulations are possible before the snow tapers to snow showers. Generally expect 5 to 7 inches of total snow accumulation across much of the region through early Monday night, with locally greater accumulations possible. Lesser snow accumulations are expected along the Downeast coast where a rain/snow mix could limit accumulations near the immediate coast. High pressure will cross the region Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of snow showers across the north and mountains, with partly sunny skies across the Bangor and Downeast regions. Temperatures are expected to be at below normal levels Monday/Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Expect rounds of scattered snow showers through much of next week as an upper trough slowly crosses southern Canada. A potent cold front will precede this trough across Maine late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Bitterly cold air will follow this front; Wednesday`s highs will be near normal, but Thursday and Friday will be quite chilly with highs only around 10 above in the north and 15 to 20 in the south. Low temperatures meanwhile will be in the single digits below zero over northern and central portions of the region, with some of the usual cold spots in the North Woods dropping into the teens below zero. Bangor and Downeast should remain in the positive single digits. High pressure looks to build in for Friday, bringing snow showers to an end. Friday will be the coldest day of the week though; temperatures only expected to peak 5 to 10 above in the north and 10 to 15 above for the Central Highlands and Downeast, though the immediate coast will be closer to 20. A storm system will approach from the southwest on Saturday, with snow spreading into out southwestern areas during the afternoon hours. Saturday will be some 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Friday. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours with mid-high clds skirting across terminals tonight. Low VFR cigs over northern terminals expected after 17z Sunday. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions early Sunday night will lower to MVFR/IFR levels overnight. Generally expect IFR/LIFR conditions Monday through early Monday night, with MVFR/IFR conditions later Monday night. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains Tuesday, with VFR conditions Bangor and Downeast. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the region Wednesday. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains Thursday with generally VFR conditions Bangor and Downeast. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds expected to stay abv 25kts for next several hours. Hv extended SCA for outer waters through 08z tonight and hv cancelled intracoastal zone for tonight. Seas will remain just below 5ft during the night. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected later Sunday night into Tuesday. Visibilities will be reduced in snow/rain later Sunday night through early Monday night. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High tide Monday morning is at 8:35 AM in Bar Harbor and 8:44 at Eastport. Tides will be approaching astronomical high tides with Monday being the day before the full moon. Onshore flow ahead of approaching low pressure combined with the perigee tides may result in high tide levels above normal and possibly some minor splash-over Monday morning. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Hastings Aviation...Farrar/MCW/Norcross Marine...Farrar/MCW/Norcross Tides/Coastal Flooding...

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