Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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887 FXUS61 KCAR 231717 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1217 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure builds today. A weakening cold front approaches northern Maine later tonight and then stalls. The front will return northward as a warm front later Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1150am update...Refined cloud cover in northern zones as the stratocu slowly retreats northward and continued mention of flurries into the afternoon with that cloud cover. Reduced highs for today by a degree or two. Previous discussion... Low pressure lifting north of Nova Scotia early this morning will track to the Strait of Belle Isle this evening. High pressure across the Ohio Valley will settle toward the Delmarva by tonight. A cold front near James Bay this morning will push into far northern Maine by 12Z Friday. Today will be a decent day weather-wise for Thanksgiving with at least partial sunshine and diminishing wind. There is still a lot of lower clouds and a few flurries in northern areas early this morning, but the clouds should break up some by daybreak. Highs will range from the upper 20s in the Saint John Valley to the mid to upper 30s in the Bangor Region and along the coast. Clouds will increase late today and tonight ahead of the approaching front, and temperatures will be seasonably cold. An isolated snow or flurries could work into northern Somerset County late in the evening or overnight, but it is unlikely to amount to more than a dusting, if a snow shower were to occur. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... This ptn of the fcst will start msly fair and seasonally cold Fri morn with increasing cldnss across msly Nrn ptns of the FA Fri aftn as llvl warm advcn begins ahead of strong low pres tracking from the upper midwest into Ont prov toward James Bay Can. Attm...it appears most precip will be N and W of our FA Fri ngt and Sat morn until a cold front apchg from the W brings a chc of aftn shwrs. Warm advcn ahead of the cold front will bring most low trrn lctns into the mild 40s for hi temps Sat, so shwrs may be msly rn Sat aftn, chgng back to sn shwrs Sat ngt and Sun as colder air returns and an upper trof apchs. In any event, precip amts look to be very lgt for our Rgn from this system attm. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak Zonal s/wvs from Cntrl Can will cont to prevail the upper air pattern ovr our Rgn... After additional flurries and isold to sct sn shwrs msly across the N Sun ngt and erly Mon morn as the last of upper lvl troffiness crosses the Rgn, the remainder of Mon and Mon eve looks to be fair and cold. Clds will again increase late Mon ngt as a warm front apchs from the W with again lgt sct rn/sn shwrs for msly Nrn ptns of the Rgn on Tue as milder air arrives into the Rgn. Models then disagree with the tmg of any other subsequent s/wv from Cntrl Can for Wed and Thu, so PoPs were kept in the low chc category, although all msly agree about temps being at or below avg these two days. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR this morning at the northern terminals from KHUL to KFVE. Confidence is not high on whether or not the ceilings will lift to VFR this afternoon, but it is possible. Conditions should improve to VFR by this evening. VFR expected today and tonight at the Downeast terminals. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly VFR xpctd at our TAF sites with intervals of MVFR SC clgs across Nrn TAF sites. && .MARINE... 12pm update...converted to SCA for Hazardous Seas as winds are decreasing, but longer period swell is expected to remain above the 5 foot criteria through tonight. NEAR TERM: The wind will diminish today as low pressure pulls away from the region, but gusts over 25 knots are expected until late morning and have extended the small craft advisory until 10 am. The seas are likely to remain borderline for a small craft advisory through late this afternoon or early evening on the coastal waters with seas around 5 feet. Both the wind and seas are expected to be below small craft advisory levels tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Winds and wvs will vary from no hdln to SCA conditions, with SCA conditions most likely late Fri ngt thru Sat and possibly again late Sun aftn thru Mon morn. Went with a blend of WW3 and NWPS wv guidance for fcst wv hts. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB/MCW Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...CB/MCW/VJN Marine...CB/MCW/VJN

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