Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 272317 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 617 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS REGION LATE SUNDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING A SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 618 PM UPDATE...1004 MB LOW NORTH OF LAKE HURON EARLY THIS EVENING RACES OFF TO THE EAST AND DEEPENS A BIT TONIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF MAINE AS A 999 MB LOW BETWEEN 12-15Z SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH MOST OF IT FALLING IN A 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW AT ANY ONE SPOT. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WILL RANGE FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS DOWN EAST TO 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE GOES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE DAY SHIFT. MAINLY SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE...WITH A TRANSITION ZONE AROUND THE MILLINOCKET/KATAHDIN REGION AND RAIN DOWN EAST. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OF TWO ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CARIBOU AREA NORTH. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON 6 PM OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NOT TO MUCH CHG IN THE MODELS IN HOW THE LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS AND ASSOCIATED S/WV ALF WILL AFFECT THE FA LATER TNGT INTO SUN AS IT APCHS AND THEN TRACKS N OF THE FA. ONE TREND NOTED IN THE 12Z DTMNSTC MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAS BEEN WARMEST WITH THIS SYSTEM OVR THE LAST TWO DAYS. WITH THIS IN MIND...EVEN TAKING A BLEND OF THE MODELS BRINGS ENOUGH MILD AIR THAT LGT SN EVEN IN FAR NRN LCTNS IN OUR FA COULD END AS A LGT MIX OR AS RN SHWRS SUN MORN...WITH THIS TRANSITION OCCURRING LATE TO VERY LATE TNGT OVR CNTRL AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. A COUPLE OF MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHALLOW LLVL COLD AIR DAMMING FOR LCLZD POCKETS OF LGT FZRA IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL AND N CNTRL HIGHLANDS...BUT GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP...THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY BY ANY MEANS. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY REAL COLD AIR THE LAST FEW DAYS...EVEN IF LGT FZRA DID OCCUR WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 32 DEG F... THE IMPACT ON WIDELY TRAVELED PRIMARY RDS WOULD BE LMTD AT MOST...WITH LESSER SECONDARY ROADS PERHAPS SEEING SLIGHT GLAZING. ANY LCTN RECEIVING ANY LGT FZRA VERY LATE TNGT WILL LIKELY GO OVR TO ALL RN BY ERLY SUN MORN. GIVEN THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD CVRG AND LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...WE DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY WNTR WX ADVS FOR THIS EVENT...WITH TOTAL QPF BY MIDDAY SUN GENERALLY 0.15 INCHES OR LESS...MEANING THE MOST SN THAT COULD BE REALIZED IS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR N...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER TOTALS SWRD...TO ZERO OR NEAR ZERO OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION. IN FACT...MOST LCTNS WILL ONLY BE RECEIVING LGT RN SHWRS OR RN/SN SHWRS MIXED BY SUN MORN...AS THE LGT OVRRNG SHIELD OF PRECIP QUICKLY MOVES E OF THE FA BY OR SHORTLY AFT 12Z SUN. AFT ANOTHER NGT OF MILD OVRNGT LOWS...SUN SHOULD FEATURE ONE LAST DAY OF ABV FZG HI TEMPS REGION WIDE...BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR FINALLY RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A NORTHWEST FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DOWN EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S DOWN EAST. AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SQUALLS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHERN AREAS AND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 ABOVE NORTH AND TEENS TO AROUND 20 CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SOME MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE BY MID WEEK. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THE CONTINENT COMBINED WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND BITTER COLD DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH ON SATURDAY WITH ONE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE REDEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR LATER TNGT ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WITH THE ADVC OF LGT SN INTO THE REGION FROM QB PROV. DOWNEAST SITES WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN LGT RN LATE TNGT. NRN TAF SITES TO TRANSITION BACK TO MVFR BY MIDDAY SUN AND CONT INTO THE AFTN AS LGT SN CHGS TO RN FROM S TO N AND CLGS GRADUALLY LIFT. DOWNEAST SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURG SUN AFTN. SHORT TERM: VFR SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY VFR MONDAY EXCEPT SCT SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS COULD BRING BRIEF LCL IFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN CLEAR AND COLD SKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CURRENTLY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE BLO SCA CRITERIA...BUT S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS BEGINS TO MOVE N OF ME. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN GO BACK INTO SCA BY SUN MORN...CONTG THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SUN AS SFC WINDS INCREASE TO THE STRONG SCA CATEGORY (GUSTS TO 30 KT)...AND BECOME MORE WRLY IN DIRECTION AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD SRN LABRADOR LATE SUN. WE WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE THIS UPDATE GIVEN THIS TREND OVR OBSVD BUOY WV HTS OVR THE LAST FEW DAYS. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/VJN SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...CB/VJN/DUDA MARINE...CB/VJN/DUDA

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