Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 010752 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 352 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKING TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE COULD RESULT IN SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SHALLOW AREAS OF FOG MAINLY OVR BROAD VLY AREAS WILL CONT AT LEAST INTO THE ERLY MORN HRS INLAND...AND PERHAPS AS LONG AS LATE MORN ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST AS LLVL MOIST AIR REMAINS TRAPPED OVR OUR FA. AFT THE FOG LIFTS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BUILD UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES LATE THIS MORN INTO ERLY AFTN FOR CU CLDS TO GROW TO SCT SHWRS ACROSS THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTN...WITH CVRG PERHAPS NUMEROUS ACROSS THE BAXTER PARK AND CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS PTN OF THE REGION AS A WEAK S/WV FROM ERN ONT/SE QB MOVES ENE ACROSS THE NW PTNS OF THE FA. MAX AFTN SBCAPE IS NOT FCST TO EXCEED 500J/KG OVR ANY PTN OF THE FA...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE MID LVL CAP THIS AFTN FOR ISOLD TSTMS WITH THE SHWRS...SPCLY OVR MTN TRRN...SO WE MENTION ISOLD TSTMS WITH POPS GREATER THAN 25 PERCENT THRU 9 PM. HI TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YSTDY AFTN. WHATS LEFT OF THE AFTN SHWRS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE NE TOWARD NRN NB PROV BY LATE EVENING AS THE S/WV MOVES TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA...ALLOWING FOR SOME CLRG AND RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA LATE TNGT. THIS...IN TURN WILL AGAIN LIKELY RESULT IN MORE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION LATE TNGT. OVRNGT LOWS TNGT WILL LIKELY BE A 2 OR 3 DEG WARMER THAN THIS CURRENT ERLY MORN. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THEME CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THIS PERIOD. PRIMARY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AREA WILL BEGIN TO PRESS NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER CONTINUED W TO SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DISTURBANCES ALONG THE FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A DISTURBANCE RIDING NE ALONG THE FLOW APPROACHING THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BRING BETTER LIFTING DYNAMICS DOWNEAST PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. PLAN TO BRING POPS UP SOME TO REFLECT THIS REASONABLE TREND. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXIST AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY WITH LESS DYNAMICS AND MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH AND DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EVEN SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF THE COAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECENT CAPE PROFILES SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MOST OF THE SHOWER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON TIMING OF SOME OF THE DISTURBANCES THIS COULD ENHANCE PRECIP AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MOST TAF SITES IN OUR FA WILL BEGIN VLIFR-IFR IN SHALLOW FOG ERLY THIS MORN...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORN... XCPT PERHAPS KBHB WHICH MAY HOLD ON TO IFR LONGER TIL ABOUT MIDDAY DUE TO LINGERING OCEAN ST. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY LOWER BACK TO IFR AGAIN LATE TNGT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF BKN-OVC ST/FOG. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT PARTICULARLY VALLEY SITES COULD SEE REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH FOG DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS AT SITES THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS SLATED THRU THE NEAR TERM...WITH 8 SEC PD SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM 2 TO 4 FT TDY TO 1 TO 3 FT TNGT... HIGHER WVS OVR THE OUTER MZS. DUE TO THE SEMI-SWELL NATURE OF WVS...WE KEPT CLOSE TO FCST WW3 WV HTS THIS FCST UPDATE. OTHERWISE... MOIST SEMI-TROP AIR GLIDING NWRD OVR THE GULF OF ME WATERS FROM THE OPEN ATLC WILL CONT TO RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG RESTRICTING VSBYS TO A MILE OR LESS TDY THRU TNGT. SHORT TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH WINDS AND SEAS STAYING BELOW THRESHOLDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...JORDAN LONG TERM...JORDAN AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN MARINE...VJN/JORDAN

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