Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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611 FXUS61 KCAR 250003 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 803 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across northern Maine and the maritimes overnight. Low pressure will approach from the south Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Update... High pressure will build southeast across northern Maine to the maritimes overnight. Generally expect mostly clear skies across the forecast area tonight. However, an area of low clouds and fog in the Gulf of Maine will have to be monitored which could clip the Downeast coast later tonight. Overnight low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 20s north, to the lower 30s interior Downeast with mid to upper 30s along the Downeast coast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with overnight temperatures and clouds. Previous Discussion... Clouds will increase from south to north on Tuesday ahead of low pressure approaching from the southwest. A bit of light rain may spread into the Downeast region late in the afternoon. The north should remain dry all day with only a slight chance for some spotty light rain by sundown. Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the low to mid 50s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Strong high pressure will pass to the north of the region Tuesday night. Low pressure will develop over the mid Atlantic States Wednesday then move to the north during the day. This system is expected to produce rain across the state during the day Wednesday with the highest amounts of rainfall across the coast and interior Downeast. The low will then weaken as it moves to the east Wednesday night and Thursday. Will use a model consensus of the ECMWF, GFS, and NAM. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front will approach from the west Thursday night and cross the region late Friday. This system is expected to result in showers for Friday into Saturday. High pressure will approach from the northwest Sunday. Intense low pressure system will move northward into the Great Lakes Monday producing over- running precipitation Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region tonight through much of Tuesday. However, an area of low clouds and fog in the Gulf of Maine will have to be monitored which could clip KBHB and the Downeast coast later tonight with IFR/LIFR conditions. MVFR conditions should then begin to develop Bangor and Downeast later Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Expect IFR/MVFR conditions Wednesday and Thursday. MVFR/VFR conditions are expected Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are generally expected to remain below small craft advisory levels tonight through much of Tuesday. However, wind gusts could begin to approach small craft advisory levels later Tuesday. Will have to monitor an area of low clouds and fog in the Gulf of Maine which could move across the waters later tonight reducing visibilities. SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS for sustained winds. For waves: Expect a strong southerly fetch to develop off the Mid Atlantic States Tuesday Night and extend well to the east into the Atlantic as low pressure develops off the east coast. This fetch will extend northward into the Gulf of Maine Wednesday and persist into Thursday. Wave heights are expected to build to a maximum of 9 feet/10 seconds Wednesday Night. The southeasterly fetch will end on Thursday as winds shift, however long period swell is expected to persist into Saturday due to the long length of the fetch area. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to populate grids through Thursday then transition to the Wave Watch III. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 9 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Norcross/Mignone Marine...Norcross/Mignone is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.