Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCAR 250003
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
803 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
High pressure will build across northern Maine and the maritimes
overnight. Low pressure will approach from the south Tuesday
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will build southeast across northern Maine to the
maritimes overnight. Generally expect mostly clear skies across
the forecast area tonight. However, an area of low clouds and
fog in the Gulf of Maine will have to be monitored which could
clip the Downeast coast later tonight. Overnight low
temperatures will range from the lower to mid 20s north, to the
lower 30s interior Downeast with mid to upper 30s along the
Downeast coast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current
conditions along with overnight temperatures and clouds.
Clouds will increase from south to north on Tuesday ahead of
low pressure approaching from the southwest. A bit of light rain
may spread into the Downeast region late in the afternoon. The
north should remain dry all day with only a slight chance for
some spotty light rain by sundown. Highs Tuesday are expected to
be in the low to mid 50s across the region.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong high pressure will pass to the north of the region
Tuesday night. Low pressure will develop over the mid Atlantic
States Wednesday then move to the north during the day. This
system is expected to produce rain across the state during the
day Wednesday with the highest amounts of rainfall across the
coast and interior Downeast. The low will then weaken as it
moves to the east Wednesday night and Thursday. Will use a
model consensus of the ECMWF, GFS, and NAM.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will approach from the west Thursday night and
cross the region late Friday. This system is expected to result
in showers for Friday into Saturday. High pressure will approach
from the northwest Sunday. Intense low pressure system will
move northward into the Great Lakes Monday producing over-
running precipitation Monday.
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region
tonight through much of Tuesday. However, an area of low clouds
and fog in the Gulf of Maine will have to be monitored which
could clip KBHB and the Downeast coast later tonight with
IFR/LIFR conditions. MVFR conditions should then begin to
develop Bangor and Downeast later Tuesday.
SHORT TERM: Expect IFR/MVFR conditions Wednesday and Thursday.
MVFR/VFR conditions are expected Friday and Saturday.
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are generally expected to remain below
small craft advisory levels tonight through much of Tuesday.
However, wind gusts could begin to approach small craft advisory
levels later Tuesday. Will have to monitor an area of low
clouds and fog in the Gulf of Maine which could move across the
waters later tonight reducing visibilities.
SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS for sustained winds. For waves:
Expect a strong southerly fetch to develop off the Mid Atlantic
States Tuesday Night and extend well to the east into the
Atlantic as low pressure develops off the east coast. This fetch
will extend northward into the Gulf of Maine Wednesday and
persist into Thursday. Wave heights are expected to build to a
maximum of 9 feet/10 seconds Wednesday Night. The southeasterly
fetch will end on Thursday as winds shift, however long period
swell is expected to persist into Saturday due to the long
length of the fetch area. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction
System (NWPS) to populate grids through Thursday then transition
to the Wave Watch III.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 9 AM EDT Thursday