Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 302224 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 624 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 624 PM UPDATE...THUS FAR THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF AROOSTOOK...NORTHERN SOMERSET...AND NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES HAS NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE AND HAS GENERALLY WEAKENED AS IT HAS MOVED EAST. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THAT ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT ENTER THE CWA FROM THE WEST COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND...BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS DIMINISHING. THE BEST SFC BASED AND MU CAPES AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS TO STABILIZE LATER THIS EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING AS WE MOVE ALONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 1000-1500+ JOULES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME GOOD SPEED SHEAR ESPECIALLY FROM 700-500MBS OF 50+ KTS. PWATS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND K INDEX ABOVE 35. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR 3KM AND NAM12 POINT TO THE FIRST BATCH ASSOCIATED W/A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON W/THE HEAVIEST ACTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ATTM. THE SECOND ROUND W/THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION. THIS IS WHEN THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES AS WELL TO ENHANCE THE STORMS. KEPT THE ENHANCED WORDING IN THERE FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/SOME STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAVING ROTATION. FLOW PARALLELING THE LINE SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME TRAINING OF THE CELLS W/HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. ALTHOUGH ATTM, CONFIDENCE ON THE FLASH FLOODING IS LOW DUE TO FAST FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER S AND E TOWARDS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, LLVLS A BIT MORE STABLE TO ALLEVIATE ANY STRONG CONVECTION. THEREFORE, KEPT JUST GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS FOR NOW. THE COAST LOOKS TO BE CONVECTION FREE FROM THIS STANDPOINT. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON, CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN W/PRECIP JUST IN THE FROM OF SHOWERS AND A STEADY RAIN AS WEAK LOW PRES WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. THIS WILL SLOW THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT UP FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY, NORTHERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO DRY AND COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL TURN TO A MORE NNW DIRECTION. AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS MUCH COLDER AND TEMPS FOR SUNDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF MAY. FURTHER S TOWARD THE BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR REGIONS, RAIN/SHOWERS WILL HANG ON AS THE FRONT STALLS FOR A TIME ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 0.40 TO 0.75 INCHES W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A STALLED STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE WILL INTERACT WITH AN OVERRUNNING SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BRING STEADY RAIN THIS PERIOD ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN AND HOW FAR NORTH IT SPREADS STILL REMAINS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT THERE WILL BE AN AXIS OF 1-2" OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT...HANCOCK...AND WASHINGTON COUNTY OVER THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL OFF DRASTICALLY AS YOU HEAD INTO NORTHERN MAINE. DUE TO LARGE SPREAD IN THE QPF BETWEEN THE SREF...NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE AS COOL EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW...AND OVERCAST SKIES CAP ANY WARMING. FURTHER NORTH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER IN THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CWA WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LOWS WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE MID 50S BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOING TO MVFR THIS EVENING W/SOME TSTMS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GO TO IFR IN RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN VFR BY MIDDAY. FOR KBGR AND BHB, VFR GOING TO MVFR/IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR ESPECIALLY FOR BGR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF KHUL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH IFR CONDITIONS BEING THE NORM AT KBNG/KBHB WITH LOW CIGS/VIS IN STEADY RAIN. FURTHER NORTH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TUESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL SPREAD...WITH KHUL HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF BEGIN IMPACTED BY IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS IN PLACE ATTM. THE WIND AND SEAS HAVE FINALLY COME UP AND THE SEAS ARE RUNNING NEAR 5 FT AT THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF. THE WIND WILL START TO COME DOWN AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THEN FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SCA MADE NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO HAZARDOUS SEAS ON SUNDAY W/A SWELL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO SET UP. SHORT TERM: NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED...BUT SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO THE 5 FOOT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES AROUND 2 MILES...LOCALLY LOWER IN HEAVIER RAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUMONT LONG TERM...RAHE AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/DUMONT MARINE...CB/HEWITT/DUMONT

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