Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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077 FXUS61 KCAR 240146 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 946 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide south of the area tonight. A warm front will cross the region on Friday followed by a cold front Friday night. High pressure will build down from the northwest Saturday into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 9:45 PM Update...Satellite pictures continue to show a clear sky across the CWA with cirrus approaching from the west. High clouds will begin to overspread the area from the west over the next several hours. Most areas have not fully decoupled yet as there is still a bit of wind, but expect most of the valleys will decouple over the next few hours, especially across the western zones. The challenge for the overnight remains the low temperatures. Clouds may begin to have an impact after midnight in the far west along the Quebec border, but not until a couple hours prior to sunrise in the east. The dew points remain below zero, and there will remain a window for temps to continue to fall. Made a few add`l tweaks to lower the temps in the valleys. Previous discussion... Another cold night on tap for the region as high pressure will crest over the area. High clouds associated with our next weather system will begin to spread into western areas late tonight which should help keep temperatures a bit warmer than what we saw last night. Lows will be in the single digits north and east, while more southwestern portions of our forecast area and along the coast will bottom out at 10 to 20. Low pressure will slide eastward well to our north, dragging a cold front/surface trough through the Great Lakes on Friday and into the Northeast late in the day. This will bring another round of precipitation to our area, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Although this may start out as snow, temperatures will warm into the lower and mid 30s by afternoon, so expect many central and Downeast locations will end up seeing a rain/snow mix or just plain rain for the bulk of the event, mainly along and south of a Danforth to Millinocket to Dover-Foxcroft line. This is a fast-moving system, so don`t expect much in the way of any snow accumulation, even in those areas that remain cold enough for all snow. Most spots will see an inch or less, with some amounts up to 2 inches possible in the higher terrain of the North Woods. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front will push across the state Friday evening with some light rain or snow showers still possible, mainly Downeast, during the evening as the front pushes through. Northern areas will begin clearing overnight. A large high pressure system will then begin building down from central Canada on Saturday bringing a mostly sunny and seasonable day across the north with partial clearing Downeast. This will be followed by a mostly clear and cold night Saturday night. The high will be ridging over the area on Sunday as northern areas remain partly to mostly sunny. Some clouds will start to increase Downeast as a warm front begins to move in from a large low pressure system approaching form the Great Lakes. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure will approach Sunday night into Monday as clouds increase from southwest to northeast. Some snow may begin to spread into southeastern areas overnight Sunday night then continue on Monday with snow possibly reaching the north late Monday. The snow may taper off or decrease in intensity Monday night as an initial wave of low pressure slides off to the east. A larger low will then approach late Tuesday into Tuesday night spreading snow back across the area which may change to rain Downeast. Snow north and rain Downeast are then likely Wednesday as one low lifts north across Canada and a secondary forms south of the coast and pushes offshore. The system should consolidate and lift northeast through the Maritimes on Thursday as drier air returns behind the low. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Conditions will remain VFR for much of the forecast period. Clouds will gradually filter in late tonight and then lower through the day on Friday as precipitation associated with an approaching cold front moves into the region. While light snow showers will be possible at all sites by late morning, KBHB and KBGR will transition to all rain by 18z while northern locations remain all snow. Conditions will lower to MVFR at all terminals around 18z and remain so through the rest of the day. The northern sites will likely drop to IFR occasionally in light snow. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions are likely Friday evening. Conditions should then improve to MVFR then VFR from north to south late Friday night into Saturday morning. VFR conditions are expected across the area Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Conditions should lower to MVFR or IFR Downeast Sunday night then be IFR across the area on Monday in low clouds and some snow. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind will continue to diminish overnight as high pressure settles over the waters. Will cancel the small craft advisory as only a few gusts to around 25 knots are expected over the next couple of hours on the coastal waters. However, once the high moves to the east, winds and seas will build once again on Friday, reaching SCA levels early Friday afternoon. Additional headlines will likely be needed. SHORT TERM: A SCA may be needed Friday evening for southwesterly winds gusting up to 25kt. Winds should be below SCA late Friday night through Saturday then may reach SCA again Saturday evening in gusts up to 25kt. Winds should be below SCA Sunday into morning as high pressure crest over the area. Winds may increase to SCA Monday afternoon into Monday night ahead of approaching low pressure. && .CLIMATE... The high temperature this afternoon of 21F at Caribou, ties with 2008 for the lowest high temperature ever observed at Caribou on March 23rd. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hastings/CB Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Hastings/Bloomer/CB Marine...Hastings/Bloomer/CB Climate...CB

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