Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 011049 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 649 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF MAINE TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6:45 AM UPDATE...CUT BACK ON SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS, MAINLY IN WESTERN AREAS, TO START THE DAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, DOWNEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND FURTHER NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR WEST TODAY WILL PULL HUMID AND MOIST AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING THEN OVER THE REST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING UP TO 200 J/KG CAPE OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND A BIT OF INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. HUMID AIR MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME FOG DOWNEAST EARLY TODAY. SOME FOG MAY LINGER OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND AWAY EARLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND PULLS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE THURSDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY MORNING WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE UPPER TROF CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG TODAY. WIND AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS

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