Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181352 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 852 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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852 AM UPDATE...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THUS FAR HAS BEEN IN SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK WITH 13" AT HOULTON. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE STEADY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA WILL TAPER BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RETURNS ARE NOW JUST EAST OF THE BORDER IN NEW BRUNSWICK. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM HEADLINES THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE/CANCEL MOST OF THEM BY AROUND MIDDAY. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA. OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS. HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER.. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT. SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006- 032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016- 029-030. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW

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