Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280209 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1009 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak low pressure systems from Southern Quebec will move east crossing just south of the region tonight through Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure will then build toward the region Wednesday through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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.1010 PM Update. Updated to extend WSW for zones 2, 5, and 6. WSW was allowed to expire elsewhere. Light snow will continue becoming mixed at times no significant accumulations expected. No other changes to the forecast for this update. .Previous discussion. Steady precipitation associated with short wave crossing the region this afternoon should diminish from west to east through early this evening. Surface temperatures across the region have remained generally in the mid to upper 20s across the north and low 30s downeast with precip type mainly snow across the north and a wintry mix central and downeast. Will continue the Winter Weather Advisories into this evening. Once the steady precipitation associated with the exiting short wave exits the region this evening, expect cloudy skies overnight with lingering light snow or patchy freezing drizzle, as abundant low level moisture remains in place. Lows tonight are not expected to fall much from current afternoon readings with mid to upper 20s across the north and lower 30s downeast. Another batch of steady precipitation is expected to overspread the area Tuesday morning in advance of the next approaching disturbance. Temperatures are expected to moderate on Tuesday with precipitation across the north starting as a mix or snow before transitioning to rain, with mainly rain expected downeast. Highs on Tuesday should rise into the mid to upper 30s north and lower 40s downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The back edge of the last ovrrng precip shield will be movg E of the region with lgt rn chgng to lgt sn spcly across the N hlf of the region before tapering off to sct sn shwrs ovrngt with any accumulation arnd an inch or less. Otherwise, xpct mcldy skies late Tue ngt thru Wed with morn sn and aftn rn/sn shwrs spcly across the N. Shwrs should msly dissipate Wed eve with slow decreasing cldnss from S to N late Wed ngt and Thu. Temps thru the short range will be at or a little below avg for this tm of season. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Artic air will be msly in retreat thru the long range with the Srn edge ovr Nrn Can by the weekend, so temps in the long range should avg close to normal for this tm of season, with milder ovrngt lows offsetting cooler day tm highs. Otherwise...skies will will be fair Thu ngt into Fri as sfc hi pres crosses the region from QB prov...with increasing cldnss late Fri and Fri ngt as low pres systems from the Great Lks and Mid Atlc states consolidate ovr the Srn Gulf of ME. The 12z suite of all model guidance was less certain about the track and how much QPF from this system will affect our region from late Fri ngt thru Sat ngt or even into Sun morn, so model blended PoPs were actually capped to a max of hi chc for Sat/Sat eve until later model runs come into a better scenario agreement. Typical as we get later into spring, with the absence or uncertainty of strong dynamics...precip types begin to become more dictated by diurnal/nocturnal temp trends, meaning more in the way of sn in the ovrngt and erly morn hrs and more in the way of rn from late morn into the erly eve hrs. Following any impacts from this system, there should be a break between systems Sun aftn thru Mon. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR expected overnight in precipitation, patchy fog, low ceilings. Expect these conditions to persist into much of Tuesday. SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR clgs/vsbys in lgt rn/sn Tue eve will transition to MVFR conditions in shwrs late Tue ngt. MVFR clgs and ocnl vsbys in sn/rn shwrs will cont thru the day ovr Nrn TAf sites Wed while Downeast sites improve to VFR. All sites will be VFR Wed ngt into Fri ngt...lowering to MVFR/IFR in rn/sn late Fri ngt into Sat. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Small craft advisory remains in effect overnight with wind/seas dropping below small craft advisory criteria on Tuesday. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Marginal SCA or no hdlns are xpctd thru these ptns of the fcst. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance thru these ptns of the fcst. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MEZ002- 005-006. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050>052.
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