Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 230527 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1227 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build north of the area tonight. Low pressure will intensify along the mid Atlantic coast on Monday and move north toward the region late Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Update... No significant changes made to overnight forecast. Previous Discussion... High pressure building across Quebec will continue to push some cooler and drier air south across the area tonight. Skies should begin to clear from north to south overnight. Monday will then turn out mostly sunny over central and northern areas and partly sunny Downeast as the high pushes into eastern Quebec. The day will be just a bit cooler and drier than recent days with highs from the mid 20s north to the mid 30s along the coast. High clouds will increase along Downeast areas late in the day ahead of the big storm moving up the Mid- Atlantic coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upr system rotating acrs the southeast tda wl be our next wx-maker for the area on Tue into Wed. Hipres located ovr Quebec Mon wl rmn locked ovr CWA into late Tue night, lkly keeping pcpn at bay thru most of the ovrngt. Sndgs indicate dry air wl keep most pcpn to the south and west of the area thru 12z Tue. Airmass saturates rapidly as strong H8 llj brings in moisture fm the ocean with pw values incrsg to 2-4 SD abv normal. Med range guidance is all ovr the place with respect to ptypes with latest NAM the warmest, 12z EC the coldest and 12z GFS the compromise. Thinking is that sleet looks to be the dominant ptype with mix of snow/freezing rain and rain along the immediate coast by late mrng Tue. Hv opted to issue a Winter Storm Watch north of a Greenville to Millinocket to Mars Hill line for a combination of snow and ice. At this time it appears sleet may mix in as far north as the St. John Vly and Allagash Tue night per NAM/GFS while EC and GEM keep this area all snow. By 12z Wed expect sfc low to be located arnd Nova Scotia with cldr air filtering in bhnd late in the aftn. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Intense low pressure is expected to move to the north of the region Wednesday Night with colder air coming in around the back of the system. Expect the cyclonic flow behind this system to persist through Friday and into the weekend. This will result in snow showers in western and mountain areas through Saturday along with mostly cloudy conditions in the north. The southern areas are expected to remain partly cloudy. Will use the Super Blend to populate all grids. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions should improve to VFR across the north tonight and remain VFR on Monday. VFR conditions are expected Downeast tonight and Monday. SHORT TERM: VFR on Mon for all terminals before lowering to MVFR Tue morning at BHB and BGR. IFR will set in and not lift until Wed night in mixed precipitation. VFR conditions expected KBGR and KBHB on Thursday with MVFR elsewhere. VFR Conditions expected all areas Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: An SCA will be up for the offshore waters for northeast winds gusting up to 25 kt tonight and Monday. A few gusts up to 25 kt are possible across the intracoastal waters too. SHORT TERM: Expect gales on intracoastal Tue morning and storm on outer waters into early Tue afternoon. Winds will diminish to gales after this time and drop to SCA late Tue night. Seas will remain above SCA levels through the end of the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for MEZ001>005-010. MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ052. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051. Storm Warning from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term... Long Term... Aviation...Duda/ Marine...Duda/

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