Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 140529 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1229 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will continue to lift north of the region tonight. A large area of Low pressure will remain to our north on Thursday as a weak low slides well to our south. High pressure will build to our south Thursday night into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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12:29 am Update...No significant changes at this time. As deep low pressure continues to lift north of the area there will be some areas of blowing snow overnight across the northern zones, and will extend the blowing snow for a few more hours. Otherwise, only minor tweaks bases on the latest observations and radar trends. Previous Discussion... The large area of low pressure which brought snow and mixed precipitation to the area will continue to intensify as it lifts north through eastern Quebec tonight. Strong gusty westerly winds behind the low will pull in much colder air overnight. Some snow showers in the wrap around moisture are likely over the far north this evening. An additional dusting to an inch is possible in some spots with some blowing snow this evening. Snow showers will diminish overnight. We will be in a corridor of dry air on Thursday with the large low well to our north and a weak low sliding well offshore. The air will be bitter cold. Wind chills will be near 10 below over the north and the single digits Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... On Thursday night, skies will be clearing across the area with single digit lows. Winds are expected to remain fairly steady with a decent pressure gradient between low pressure in Labrador and high pressure in the Ohio Valley. If winds decrease, subzero readings will be widespread. The pressure gradient remains Friday and mixing will generate some gusts of 20 to 25 mph. This will keep apparent temperatures below zero north of Houlton during Friday and in the single digits south of Houlton. Actual highs will be in the lower teens north of a line from Greenville to Houlton while readings near 20F are anticipated towards Bangor and Ellsworth. On Friday night, winds decrease under high pressure, but mid clouds increase ahead of an upper level shortwave. These clouds are expected to keep lows from dropping off too dramatically. Readings will be just below zero in northern Aroostook County and increase southward to upper single digits in the lower Penobscot Valley. The shortwave upper trough is not currently expected to cause any widespread precipitation Friday night into Saturday as low pressure on the cyclonic side of the trough is forecast to develop well east in the Atlantic Ocean. There is some concern about an inverted Norlun-like trough along the coast and have indicated chance pops for snow showers Friday night into early Saturday. Further north, cannot rule out flurries with the upper trough, but there`s not enough H925-H850 moisture showing right now to justify including mention in the forecast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Winds increase again Saturday night on the backside of the upper trough along with cold advection sufficient to generate single digit lows for most of the area. If winds are less, then the low temp forecast will need downward adjustment. High pressure builds Sunday with some gusty northwest winds keeping apparent temperatures less than zero all day north of Houlton and lower teens even to the coast. Winds decrease on Sunday night with high pressure. Increasing clouds are expected to keep lows mostly in the zero to 10F range. A shortwave upper trough and accompanying surface trough are expected to bring some light snow on Monday. The situation gets more complicated Monday night into Wednesday night. For now, have favored a solution similar to the 13/12Z GEFS with a coastal low on Wednesday bringing potentially significant snow. The 13/12Z operational ECMWF shows a coastal low on Monday night, but this solution involves kicking a Four Corners low out of the SW US too quickly and it is not supported by the majority of ECMWF ensemble members. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions in variable low clouds and snow showers are likely over the far north this evening with VFR conditions elsewhere. VFR conditions are likely throughout the area late tonight through Thursday. SHORT TERM: From Thursday night into Sunday night, the prevailing condition will be VFR. On Monday, IFR conditions are possible due to snow. At this time, there`s no strong indication of light snow showers reducing vis on Saturday, but the possibility will have to be watched. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A gale warning will be up this evening for winds gusting up to 35 kt. Winds will gradually diminish to SCA later tonight through Thursday. SHORT TERM: SCA conditions will likely remain in place Thursday night into Friday morning. Another SCA looks like a reasonable bet on Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ050>052.
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