Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280415 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1215 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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1215 AM UPDATE...CLEAR AND COMFORTABLY COOL OVERNIGHT. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS ALREADY FORMING IN SPOTS AND WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE HAS ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AT ESTCOURT STATION, AND SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY MORNING. WILL LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE IN THE AFORE MENTIONED VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE MIDNIGHT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOWARDS THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE ALLAGASH. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY LOWER 50S ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN...MOSTLY IN RIVER VALLEYS...BUT THE ARRIVING AIR MASS IS SO DRY THAT ANY FOG WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND SHORT-LIVED. THE LOW HUMIDITY CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARMER END OF THE RANGE WILL BE FOUND TOWARDS THE COAST WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIPRES RIDGE AXIS AT THE SFC WL INFLUENCE AREA`S WX FRI NGT. AT UPR LVLS EXPECT A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. SW FLOW CONTS DRG THE NIGHTTIME HRS LEADING TO LOW TEMPS RIGHT ARND NORMAL. A WK WV IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THRU IN ZONAL FLOW ACRS NRN ZONES LEADING TO A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLD CVR ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE. RIDGE HOLDS DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY KEEPING SHOWERS NORTH INTO CANADA. SKIES WL CLD UP DRG THE AFTN WITH SOLAR INSOLATION BUT WITH DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT PRESENT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PCPN. TEMPS ACRS INTERIOR DOWNEAST WL APPCH 80F IN SW FLOW WITH NRN ZONES IN THE M70S UNDER FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLD CVR. SAT NGT STILL LOOKS TO BE DRY. ALL MED RANGE MODELS WITH EXCEPTION OF GFS INDICATE DRY WX. FLOW ALOFT RMNS ZONAL WITH ANY LITTLE WV POSSIBLY SPARKING OFF PCPN BUT AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT CHC POPS. WK SFC BNDRY WL APPCH CWA ON SUNDAY WITH CHC POPS ACCOMPANYING IT THRU. BEST FRCG LOOKS TO EXIST OVR NRN ZONES WITH DRY AIR FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MAX TEMPS ON SUN LOOK TO BE SIMILAR TO SAT UNDER SW FLOW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AREA WL BE AFFECTED BY NW FLOW EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MON NGT WITH DRY WX EXPECTED ON TUE. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS CWA RMNS IN WK NW FLOW. TEMPS THRU THE PD WL AVERAGE ARND TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS...TOWARDS DAWN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM: VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE SHORT TERM. SHOWERS EXPECTED OFF AN ON SUN AFTN, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: FOG HAS BEEN SWEPT EAST OF THE WATERS WITH THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME 3 TO 4 FOOT SE SWELL IS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...DIMINISHING FURTHER LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MID WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...FARRAR AVIATION...CB/HEWITT MARINE...CB/HEWITT

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