Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 171522 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1022 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WHILE A SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF A MAINE...WITH A TROF EXTENDING WEST TO THE WEAKENING LOW. AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY A WINTRY MIX ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE INTENSIFYING LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW COLDER AIR BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TREND BACK INCREASINGLY TO SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE RAIN/FROZEN PRECIP LINE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT PRESQUE ISLE- PATTEN-KOKADJO BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW, STARTING FIRST IN THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS WHEN THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO SET UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AS WELL. STILL, 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MAINE, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO GET 3 TO 6 INCHES. SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST LOCALES WILL MOSTLY SEE 2 INCHES OR LESS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL, WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MSLY NRN AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA WILL WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS BY THU AFTN...END ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE FA THU NGT AND THEN END ACROSS THE N FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRES GRAD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. BOTH LOW TEMPS THU AND HIGHS FRI WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW IS NOT ARCTIC IN CHARACTER. MOST MODELS INDICATE SIG LLVL DRYING MOVING INTO THE THE FA FRI NGT FROM QB PROV WITH THE APCH OF SFC HI PRES FROM CNTRL CAN... SO WE WILL GO WITH CLRG THIS PD. IF THIS DRYING IS IN ERROR...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY THRU SAT...WITH ANOTHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVSN FORMING BY SAT MORN PREVENTING ANY LLVL MOISTURE FROM LOFTING ABV 925 MB. BASED ON A FCST OF CLRG AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE...WE WILL GO WITH SOME MODEST VLY RADIATIONAL COOLING OVRNGT LOWS FOR ERLY SAT MORN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ASSUMING THE LLVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT FRI NGT...SAT SHOULD BE MSLY SUNNY WITH LGT WINDS AS SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION. SAT NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TURNING TO THE S BEHIND HIGH PRES DEPARTING VIA THE CAN MARITIMES...SOME ST IS LIKELY TO ADVC NWRD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ME... SPCLY LATE AT NGT. OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE CORRESPONDING 00Z ECMWF FOR SUN THRU MON...WITH THE GFS MUCH WEAKER WITH S/WVS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR BOTH LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE SUN NGT THRU MON. TAKING A BLEND BETWEEN BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY LENGTHY PD OF CHC SN POPS ACROSS CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS FROM LATE SUN INTO MON NGT WITH A CHC OF RN DURG DAY PDS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ACROSS THE N...POPS MSLY REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE...PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF S/WVS FROM THE MIDWEST...FCST CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOWER THAN AVG FOR THIS PTN OF THE LONG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME MOST MODELS AGREE THAT THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BREAK ON TUE BEFORE A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW FROM THE MIDWEST APCHS THE REGION ON WED. TEMPS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR XPCTD. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THU AFTN AND THU NGT...THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT AND FRI MORN. AFTWRDS...ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT NGT...THEN PERHAPS LOWER TO MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN LGT SN ON SUN ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: WVS AND OR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA INTO FRI MORN...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BLO CRITERIA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT... THEN REMAIN BLO SCA SAT AND SUN. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THIS UPDATE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ005-006-010. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN

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