Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 210240 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1040 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tropical Storm Jose will remain southeast of Cape Cod overnight, then stall and begin to retreat back south. High pressure will build south across the region overnight through Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Update... High pressure will build south across the region overnight while Tropical Storm Jose remains southeast of Cape Cod. Skies will be mostly clear across northern areas overnight. The northern cloud shield from Tropical Storm Jose will bring partly cloudy skies to Downeast areas. Low temperatures will generally range from the mid 40s to around 50 north, to the upper 50s to around 60 Downeast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with overnight temperatures and cloud cover. Have also extended the Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas though 8 AM. Previous Discussion... A strong high pressure ridge will persist to the north of the state blocking any further northward movement of Jose. This ridge is expected to slowly drift to the south over the next 24 hours and remain strong and continue to block northward movement of Jose. Mostly sunny skies are expected across the region Thursday. High temperatures Thursday will range from around 70 to the lower 70s north, to the lower to mid 70s Downeast.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will stretch across the area Friday and Saturday, keeping it dry and mostly sunny across much of the area. As Jose continues to linger well to the south, some clouds may linger along the coast and over the marine zones. Some models show occasional light QPF over the waters and along the immediate coast, but at no particular point was there enough confidence to go for any mention of showers. Above normal temps will continue across the state for the end of the week, with a further warm-up expected to begin Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sun and Mon will be very warm for late September, with highs at least 10 to 15 degrees above normal, especially on Sun. In some spots, highs may approach record levels, though on both days there is some concern that clouds may seep into the northern CWA from a boundary slowly sagging south through Quebec. This front may push through the CWA later Mon or Mon night, bringing a bit of a cool down for mid-week - though in this case, it may only revert toward normal temps. A complicating factor for Tue night onward is the possibility of showers or steadier rainfall moving into the state, drawn northward along the frontal boundary from Maria and/or the remnant low of Jose. Most of the models show some variation on this idea, but given the long forecast lead time and the tendency for significant variations in tropical cyclone track forecasts at that time frame, decision was made to follow GYX`s lead and cap POPs at around 40 for now. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR ceilings are possible along the Downeast coast into the early morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected overnight through Thursday. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Thurs night through Saturday at all sites. Exceptions include patchy fog for KHUL to KFVE Fri night, and for a slight risk for occasional MVFR CIGs at KBHB. VFR conditions are expected again Sun and Mon for all sites, except for possible MVFR CIGs in any widely isolated shower activity for KPQI thru KFVE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: Winds have been slow to increase early tonight. Thus, have extended the Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas though 8 AM with this update. Visibilities will be reduced in areas of fog overnight. Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids Thursday, however will reduce model winds by 15 percent to adjust expected high bias due to the inversion resulting from the relatively cold sea surface temperature resulting in an inversion in the boundary layer. For Waves: The primary wave system is the long period swell emanating from Tropical Storm Jose. Wave heights are expected to increase a few feet tonight to a maximum of 11-12 feet/11-12 seconds tomorrow morning then begin to slowly subside. Due to boundary conditions mentioned above, a secondary northeast wind wave system has been slow to develop and not expected to increase to levels advertised by wind models. Will initialize the waves with the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) then lower the waves heights by 1 foot to adjust bias resulting from the boundary layer conditons. SHORT TERM: Seas will remain elevated above SCA levels into Friday, but may finally drop below criteria Fri evening or night. NE`ly winds will remain strong Thu night into Fri, but gusts should drop below 25kts Fri afternoon, and both winds and seas should remain below hazardous levels through Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Currently long period swell from Jose which is running at 11 seconds/7-8 feet continues to enter the Gulf of Maine. Waves are expected to increase in height tonight then begin to slowly subside Thursday morning. Will extend the High Surf Advisory through the day Thursday. Concern is that long period waves high impact in the surf zone, and can run up much higher on the shore than shorter period waves resulting in the danger of spectators being washed into the ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents are also expected. Warm air over sea surface temperatures in the 50s is creating a strong inversion in the boundary layer and making it difficult for stronger winds aloft from reaching the ocean surface. Therefore model wind forcing is showing a high bias. As a result expect increase water level from storm surge to remain well under 1 foot. Also wave period has decreased somewhat today. Therefore concern for splash-over and overtopping from long period waves is reduced. High tide Tonight is at 11:50 PM and Thursday Afternoon at 12:13 AM. There could be some minor slash- over around these high tide cycles, however impact is now expected to be minimal. Total water levels inland from the coast are NOT expected to be high enough for flooding.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ Near Term...Norcross/Mignone Short Term...Kredensor Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...Norcross/Kredensor Marine...Norcross/Mignone/Kredensor Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.