Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 260120 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 920 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the area tonight. The ridge will crest over the region on Sunday. Low pressure will approach from the west Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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9:20 PM Update...Strong high pressure will build into central Quebec overnight, and will settle into Maine Sunday. Satellite pictures indicate a clear sky across the state, and the observations and evening sounding from caribou indicates a bone dry air mass with precipitable H20 of only 0.08". It will remain clear overnight with a 5 to 15 mph wind to diminish as the high center moves closer to the region. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below average for late March. Lows by daybreak will range from the single digits and low teens across the Crown of Maine to the mid teens to low 20s across the Downeast Region. If the wind goes calm it is possible that the broad northwest valleys could fully decouple toward morning and temps drop a bit below zero. Lowered the lows just a bit across the western zones. Otherwise, the ongoing forecast is in fine shape. Previous discussion... The upper level ridge will build to the west of the area through the early portions of the period, and its associated surface high will build south from Quebec across Maine into the coastal waters. A low centered over Missouri with a frontal system extending east into the eastern Great lakes will deepen through the period and move northeast to the Chicago area by the of the period. Its associated warm front will move to the New Hampshire/Maine border by the end of the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will move off to the east Sunday night as low pressure approaches from the west. Some light snow will spread into western areas by Monday morning. As the low approaches the St. Lawrence valley on Monday warmer air aloft will be pulled north changing precipitation over to some sleet and rain Downeast as snow continues across the north. A weak secondary low forming along the coast may hold enough cold air near the surface to allow snow to persist across the north Monday afternoon into Monday evening as precipitation changes to rain Downeast. A mix of rain, sleet and snow is likely over central areas into Monday evening. Warmer air will continue to push north on Tuesday allowing precipitation to change over to rain in all areas expect the far north where some sleet and wet snow may continue to mix in. By late Tuesday one wave of low pressure will be sliding east, south of Nova Scotia while another low begins to approach from the Appalachians. Between the two, precipitation may end for a while Tuesday but skies will remain overcast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... H5 trof will approach from the Quebec Province Tuesday night and cross the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. Expect the chance of some snow/rain showers across the north and rain showers downeast as the trof crosses the region. Thursday and Friday are shaping up as mainly dry days in the wake of the departing trof. Another disturbance crossing the region next weekend will bring the next chance of precipitation. Temperatures through the period will average around normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions all sites through the period. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Sunday night, possibly improving to MVFR late at night. Conditions will lower to IFR on Monday and likely remain IFR in low clouds through Tuesday. MVFR conditions in scattered snow/rain showers Tuesday and Wednesday. VFR Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below SCA criteria through the period. SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed late Monday into Monday night for southeasterly winds gusting up to 25kt ahead of approaching low pressure. Fog will likely limit visibilities over the waters late Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .CLIMATE...
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3/25 was the 116th consecutive day with at least 1 foot of snow on the ground at Caribou. The all-time record of 120 days was set during the winter of 1968-1969.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norton Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...CB/Norton/Duda Marine...CB/Norton/Duda Climate...CB

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