Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 182156 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 556 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will cross the area tonight. An occluded front will slowly cross the region Saturday through Saturday night. High pressure will build south of the area Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... .545 PM Update. updated to add isolated thunderstorms to Downeast and for the coastal waters for tonight. Made minor adjustments to the hourly temperatures and skycon. .Previous discussion. A warm front lifting into the region tonight combined with a weak surface low along the coast will provide focus for an area of rain moving across the region tonight. Most of rain will be concentrated along coastal Downeast where the surface wave will provide focus for precipitation. Rainfall further north across central and northern areas is expected to be generally light and spotty. Have worded precipitation as rain Downeast this evening with showers further north, then showers throughout the region later tonight as precipitation tapers off. A dry push surging in from the southwest in the mid levels will end showers late tonight into Saturday morning. Some breaks of sunshine are possible during the midday, especially down toward the southwest. There will be another chance for more showers later in the day as a surface occlusion pushes in from the west. The air will be warm and humid across the area on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An occluded front will cross the region Saturday night, with an upper level trof approaching late. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers across northern areas Saturday night, with partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers Downeast. The upper trof crosses the region Sunday. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers early Sunday with decreasing clouds during the afternoon across northern areas. Across Downeast areas, expect a partly/mostly cloudy morning with the slight chance of showers then decreasing clouds during the afternoon. High pressure builds south of the region Sunday night into Monday. Expect decreasing clouds across northern areas Sunday night, with mostly clear skies Downeast. Expect mostly sunny skies across the entire region Monday morning. A disturbance crossing Quebec province will produce showers and thunderstorms west of the region Monday afternoon. Expect partly sunny skies across northern areas Monday afternoon, with the slight chance of the showers/thunderstorms from Quebec province reaching northwest areas late. Skies will remain mostly sunny Downeast Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly above normal, levels Sunday. Above normal level temperatures are expected Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The remnants of showers/thunderstorms could cross northern areas Monday night with a cold front approaching northern areas late. The front should stall in the vicinity of northern Maine Tuesday though the exact location where this occurs is still uncertain. Low pressure tracking northeast from the Great Lakes will then begin to draw the front back north in the form of a warm front later Tuesday. Expect a chance of showers across the region Tuesday through Tuesday night, with the slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm across northern areas. The low will track northwest of the region Wednesday, though the exact track is still uncertain. The low will draw a cold front across the forecast area with a chance of showers/thunderstorms in advance of the front. An upper level trof approaches from the west later Thursday, with a disturbance possibly lifting across the region in advance of the trof. Generally expect partly cloudy skies Thursday, though an isolated shower is also possible. The upper trof crosses the region Friday with partly cloudy skies. Could also have a chance of mostly afternoon showers across northern areas with a slight chance Downeast. Above normal level temperatures are expected Tuesday. Near normal level temperatures are expected Wednesday/Thursday. Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are expected Friday && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions across the area are expected to lower to MVFR then IFR this evening in lower clouds then improve to MVFR Saturday afternoon. Fog along the coast may keep conditions IFR in coastal areas through midday Saturday. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions are expected across the region Saturday night. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across northern areas Sunday, with VFR conditions Downeast. VFR conditions are expected across the region Sunday night into Monday. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected across northern areas Monday night. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected across northern areas Tuesday with occasional MVFR conditions Downeast. Variable conditions are then expected across the region with showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SCA will be up for southeast winds tonight ahead of a coastal low becoming southwest on Saturday. Fog across the waters may be dense tonight and Saturday limiting visibilities. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level seas are expected Saturday night into Sunday. Conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels Sunday night/Monday. Visibilities will be reduced in fog Saturday night along with the slight chance of showers. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Norton Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Norton/Norcross Marine...Norton/Norcross

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