Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 132004 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 304 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MAINE COAST WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE NEAR TERM. THE 12Z KCAR SOUNDING HAD AN 850H TEMP OF -18.5C. A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO NEAR PORTLAND LATER TONIGHT WITH 500H HEIGHTS AROUND 500DAM ACROSS THE STATE. THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. A NORLUN TROUGH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND MIDCOAST OF MAINE WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A DECENT GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN LOW PRES EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO IN ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE, AND MOSTLY IN THE 5 TO 10 BELOW RANGE DOWNEAST AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A NORTH WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL AS LOW AS 40 TO 45 BELOW LATER TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND 20 TO 30 BELOW ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS LIKELY NOT GETTING ABOVE ZERO IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, AND 5 TO 10 ABOVE DOWNEAST. BASED ON NUMEROUS PHONE CALLS TO WEATHER SPOTTERS AND THE LATEST RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS WILL DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND INTERIOR HANCOCK COUNTIES. ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW AT BANGOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH NOT EVEN A FLAKE OF SNOW OBSERVED IN THE DEDHAM AREA. AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH HAVE RANGED FROM AN INCH OR SO IN BLUE HILL TO AROUND A FOOT ON DEER ISLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY, ALTHOUGH AREAS FROM MDI AND POINTS EAST WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION MID DAY MONDAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH. MODEL TREND IS TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE EAST... WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN AREAS WITH TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN TAKING LONGER. WILL USE LATEST GFS FOR GRIDS WHICH IS COMPROMISE BETWEEN ECMWF AND MORE EASTERLY TRACKING NAM. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE HAVE USED PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON 50/50 BLEND OF NAM AND GFS. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE GENERATED RATIO GRIDS WITH OFFICE SNOW RATIO BLENDER USING THE COBB METHOD RUN ON THE GFS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH THE SOMEWHAT EASTWARD SHIFT IN ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THUS QUICKER RE-ENTRY OF COLD AIR INTO THE CWA, THE CHANGE BACK TO SNOW WAS SPED UP FOR MOST AREAS TUE NIGHT INTO WED AM. SNOW FROM THE MAIN EVENT TAPERS OFF WED AM, BUT ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW OR TROF MOVING THRU THE CWA WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE BROAD UPR TROF MOVES ACROSS NEW ENG. AS A RESULT, EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHWRS FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. SNOW THEN TAPERS THU AM AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AS UPR RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE STATE THU NIGHT, EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT DECOUPLING, RESULTING IN A RATHER FRIGID NIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM. NEXT SYSTEM IS POISED TO IMPACT THE CWA NEXT WEEKEND, AND WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON EXACT TIMING, SATURDAY APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, AND THEN PREDOMINATELY VFR OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FEW POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. MVFR AND TIMES OF IFR POSSIBLE AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING IN SNOW WITH CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES: A SIGNIFICANT FETCH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. EXPECT FETCH TO BREAK UP WITH THE WIND SHIFT TUESDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEED EXPECTED AROUND 30+ KNOTS TUESDAY WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF AROUND 15 FEET/10 SECONDS. DUE TO THE LENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE WAVE GRIDS. DOMAIN BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FOR NWPS LOOK REASONABLE. && .CLIMATE...THE LOW OF -14F AT CARIBOU EARLY THIS MORNING WAS THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SO FAR THIS WINTER. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ005- 006-011-015>017-029>032. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ029. MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...CB/MIGNONE MARINE...CB/MIGNONE CLIMATE...CB

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