Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 302155 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 555 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 6 PM UPDATE...RAISED TEMPS DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT WHERE A FEW SPOTS ARE CLOSE TO 60. ALSO, DECREASED CLOUD COVER IN CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A CORRIDOR OF CLEAR SKIES HAS MOVED IN. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH, HOWEVER, WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA. OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...JORDAN AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.