Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 261224 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 824 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL BUILD NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 810 AM UPDATE...WIDELY SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF AROOSTOOK...HANCOCK...AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY AND MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING TO TIME THE ENDING OF THE STEADIER SHOWERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD. THIS WILL BRING 500H HEIGHTS 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL TO MAINE WITH HEIGHTS AS HIGH AS 585 DM ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE VERY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES AROUND 3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. SFC DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB AOA 60F FOR MOST AREAS MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY. A WEAKENING SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TODAY WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A PUNCH OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FOLLOWS AND CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 925H TEMP ON THE 00Z/26TH KCAR SOUNDING WAS 16.6C AND CONTINUED WARMING OF THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE 925H TEMP IS EXPECTED TO WARM ANOTHER 2-3C BY 00Z THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AIR TODAY IT WILL NOT GET AS WARM AS IT WOULD WITH A DIRER AIR MASS...BUT WE SHOULD STILL HAVE HIGHS AOA 80 DEGREES FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE NORTH TO MILLINOCKET. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THAT WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO 75-80. MUCH COOLER RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TONIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD AND MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG LIKELY OVER THE OCEAN THAT WILL SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE DOWNEAST REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL HANDS DOWN BE THE WARMEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH RECORD WARM LOWS POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STRONG STORMS IS EXPECTED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. FIRST, FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY, PLACING THE REGION UNDER BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL, AND EXPECT PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES BY AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY AS WELL, WITH MODEL SBCAPES RUNNING 500-1500 J/KG. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR DOWNEAST. ALTHOUGH MODEST, 0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE QUITE HIGH, GIVING A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. THEREFORE, THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. DID NOTE THAT SPC CURRENTLY HAS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR DAY 2 (WEDNESDAY). WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUGGY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT EXPECT COVERAGE WILL WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. COASTAL AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S, AND WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN, EXPECT MARINE FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS SLOW PUSH SOUTHWARD. THIS TIME, THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF DOWNEAST AS THE FRONT DRIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. ONCE AGAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE, AND 0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT. AS SUCH, IT`LL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY. THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM QUEBEC. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL JUST OFF THE MAINE COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, KEEPING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY DOWNEAST AREAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS NEARING 80 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS DOWNEAST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS MORNING. IFR AND EVEN VLIFR FROM KHUL NORTH TO KFVE WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG MAY CAUSE VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KBHB LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE LONGER TERM, BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION, IFR IN MARINE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBHB AND PERHAPS KBGR 00Z-14Z THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO BUILD THE SEAS TO 6-7 FT TODAY...BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE AS SEAS ARE ONLY RUNNING 2-3 FT AT GEORGES BANK AND SE OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELL TO DEVELOP TODAY WITH SEAS TO BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WITH IT BEING MOSTLY LONGER PERIOD SWELL WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA. AREAS OF FOG WILL MAKE FOR POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: DON`T EXPECT ANY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH MID WEEK. LONGER PERIOD SOUTH SWELL MAY APPROACH 5 FT AT TIMES, BUT STABLE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT. && .CLIMATE... THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT CARIBOU IS 61F SET IN 1944. THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE AT BANGOR IS 60F SET IN 1981. BOTH OF THESE RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORTON SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...NORTON/HASTINGS MARINE...NORTON/HASTINGS CLIMATE...CB

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