Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 291345 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 945 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area this afternoon followed by high pressure on Sunday. Low pressure tracking to our west will lift a warm front across our region on Monday. An occluded front will push into the area Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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945 AM Update: - Reduced pops across the area for today. Lower levels are very dry. Precip previously expected in the Down East region isn`t materializing and another area in Quebec ahead of the cold front is weakening rapidly. - Winds remain the big factor this afternoon and tonight with gusts of 30 to 40 mph at times in a deep mixed layer that will emerge once the mid-level clouds move east and surface heating begins. - Increased clouds for most of the area on Sunday. Orgnl Disc: Thin ST and shallow fog are currently being mixed out by drier air alf. This will leave ptly to mcldy skies for the balance of the morn into erly aftn with sct to numerous shwrs...spcly ovr Cntrl and Downeast areas as a fast movg s/wv from Srn QB crosses the region. Rnfl amts will be lgt, with lctns receiving measurable msly receiving 0.05 inches or less. Behind this system, skies should clr across the region during the remainder of the aftn as a secondary cold front crosses the region. Winds will increase dramatically by aftn spcly with the passage of the cold front, with steep sfc-1000m lapse rates allowing for Wrly wind gusts reaching the 30 to 40 mph by late aftn due to strong winds alf. Before the arrival of the cooler air behind the front, we should have one last day of 60 deg+ hi temps with warmest lctns Downeast reach arnd 70 deg. With mdtly strong llvl cold advcn, temps will fall fairly quickly this eve with contd clr skies and breezy NW winds with ovrngt lows reaching near seasonal norms by erly sat morn as winds subside late tngt.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure across the area will bring plenty of sunshine on Sunday. The airmass will be drier than recent days with temperatures near normal across the area. Low pressure approaching from the Plains will lift a warm front toward the area Monday night. This will bring increasing clouds and rain into central areas around midnight. The rain will then push north as the warm front lifts across the region early Monday morning. Models seem to disagree about how far north the warm frontal band and rain lifts on Monday with the NAM keeping some rain in central areas but the GFS lifting the front north across the northern part of our region. For now will go definite rain in north central areas with just likely rain far north and interior Downeast. Coastal areas will have chance rain on Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Both the NAM and the GFS have the front lifting north Monday night with some lingering light rain or drizzle over the north and just mostly cloudy skies with a chance for spotty showers Downeast. Humid air will return to the area and some fog will be likely Monday night. An occluding front will move through overnight bringing a band of rain across the area. Tuesday will remain mostly cloudy and humid with a chance of showers as the low lifts north and northwest and a murky warm sector passes across our area. The unsettled weather will continue into Wednesday with clouds and some showers as the low lifts to our northeast and the upper trough slides across our region. High pressure may briefly bring partial sunshine on Thursday. However, another storm approaching from the southwest may bring increasing clouds and a chance for some rain on Friday, especially Downeast. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: TAF sites are currently transitioning from LIFR to VFR erly this morn as thin ST and shallow for are currently be mixed out by drier air alf. VFR conditions will cont thru the remainder of the day with unlmtd VFR tngt. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected in high pressure Sunday into Sunday evening. Conditions will lower to MVFR then IFR from south to north late Sunday night. IFR conditions are likely Monday in low clouds, possibly improving to MVFR at times Downeast. IFR conditions in rain and low clouds are likely Monday night. Conditions Tuesday will range from MVFR to occasionally VFR Downeast, to IFR to MVFR over the north. MVFR conditions are likely Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No hdlns attm. Wind gusts may get close to SCA 25 kt thresholds tngt as llvl cold advcn spreads across the water from the mainland, but unlike ovr the mainland, llvl lapse rates will likely not be steep enough ovr the waters to allow for stronger winds alf to transport toward the sfc. Any fog should dissipate by late morn. Went with about 80 to 90 percent of WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts durg the near term. SHORT TERM: Winds and Seas should be below SCA Sunday into Sunday night. A SCA may be needed for southeast winds gusting up to 25 kt over the offshore waters late Monday into Monday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN/MCW Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/MCW/Bloomer Marine...VJN/MCW/Bloomer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.