Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCAR 220736
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
336 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017
Low pressure developing south of the area today will pass to the
east of Nova Scotia tonight. High pressure briefly builds into
the region Sunday morning. A cold front will move into northern
Maine Sunday evening and will dissipate across the Downeast
Region Monday morning.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Steady snow has all but exited nrn zones as of 07z. Rain/snow
mix has made it as far south as BGR with all rain to the south
of there. This appears to be the dividing line btwn rain and
snow with predominant snow just to the north as evidenced by
webcams from Milo and all rain to the south.
Intermittent snow showers expected acrs the north this mrng as s/wv
and assoc sfc low/bndry lurk back to the west ovr Quebec. Bndry
lyr temps wl warm just enuf to allow most areas to mix with and
eventually switch ovr to rain in the aftn. Hvg said that not
much of a diurnal range expected under extensive low-lvl
moisture with maxes only in the m/u 30s acrs the CWA. Expect
patchy fog throughout the day as well with areas of fog expected
drg the course of the ovrngt as winds go calm just ahd of the
bndry thru daybreak. As winds increase shortly aft daybreak
expect fog to bcm more patchy in nature and eventually dissipate
May see an additional inch of snow, especially in the North Woods,
bfr accumulating snows come to an end by 18z. Thus current end time
of existing Winter Wx Advisory looks to be good so no changes
needed. Have had to bump up storm totals by an inch or so as heavy
snowfall rates fell last evng with 4-5 inches falling in a 5-hr
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sunday will by far be the nicest day of the weekend. Low pressure
pulls away from the Maritimes as high pressure builds into the
Gulf of Maine. A cold front will approach the Saint Lawrence
River Valley toward evening. The day will likely start with a
good deal of cloud cover, but the clouds will give way to a
mostly sunny afternoon south of the katahdin Region. To the
north, a mix of clouds and sun are expected by afternoon. It
will be dry and milder than recent days, and with the low level
thermal ridge across western Maine areas in northern Somerset
County into northwest Aroostook County may end up a few degrees
milder than the northeast zones. Highs will likely come close
to 50 degrees across the Crown of maine, and low to mid 50s in
the Greater Bangor Region. The cold front pushes into northern
Maine Sunday evening and moves south and east into interior
Downeast by 12Z Monday morning. The moisture with the front
dries out as it pushes into northern Maine, but there will
likely be a few rain showers in the evening that could briefly
end as wet snow around midnight, but with little/no
accumulation. It looks like the threat of showers making it
south of Millinocket is slim. Monday will be a day of
temperature contrasts across the State with much cooler
temperatures across far northern Maine and much milder to the
south. Highs will range from the low to mid 40s across the Saint
John Valley, but it could come close to 60 degrees in Bangor.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Attention turns to low pressure that develops off the Virginia
coast Tuesday that lifts northeast and will spread some rain
into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. There remain differences
between the models as far as the timing of the rain and the
amount of QPF that falls. Far northern Maine may even remain dry
during the day Tuesday with the best chance of rain across the
Downeast Region. Rain will likely fall across most of the CWA
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The air mass is mild enough that
the precipitation will fall in the form of all rain, with no
snow this time. The concern will be the amount of QPF that
falls as rivers are already running high and the ground is
saturated in many areas. An upper trough and frontal passage
follows for Thursday with a few more showers, and looks to be
followed by dry weather and above average temperatures Friday.
The latest CPC 6-10 day outlook has very high 500H heights of
570 dam, which is 150 dam above average for this time of year.
The air mass will be warm enough that 70s and even 80s are
possible by next weekend, but the low level flow in most of the
operational models is more out of the south, which would mean a
marine influence that would limit the potential warming; but if
the flow were to be more out of the west/southwest it could get
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR across northern terminals in low cigs at HUL, CAR
and FVE next 24 hours. Expect cigs will lift to low MVFR at PQI
after 12z. Any -sn will likely mix with rain early in the
afternoon for northern terminals. After 21z VCSH is expected at
all northern sites thru end of taf valid time.
At BGR and BHB, expect MVFR today along with ocnl IFR. Light
rain expected thru at least mid-morning.
SHORT TERM: Low ceilings with IFR/MVFR to start the day Sunday will
give way to VFR. Another period of MVFR is possible at the northern
terminals later Sun evening into Sun night as a cold front crosses
the region with some showers. VFR will likely persist at KBGR and
KBHB. VFR should return to the northern terminals by Mon morning,
with VFR conditions gradually giving way to MVFR and IFR from south
to north across the region late Tue into Wed as rain overspreads
the region from the south.
NEAR TERM: Extended small craft advisory until 18z this
afternoon before winds and seas drop below SCA levels.
SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels Sunday through Monday. Areas of fog are possible
Sunday night into Monday morning ahead of an approaching cold front
from the north. The next potential small craft advisory will arrive
sometime later Tuesday as low pressure begins to move up the coast
from the south.
A total of 4.1" of snow was observed at Caribou, Maine yesterday.
This broke the daily snowfall record for 4/21 of 1.5", which
was set in 2011 and also in 1940.
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for