Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 231108 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 608 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over Maine early this morning will move east of Nova Scotia this afternoon. A weak area of low pressure will pass north of the region tonight. High pressure will build back into the region Saturday and Saturday night. Low pressure will track across the Gulf of Maine Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6:08 am update: A clear and cold start to the day with sunshine to give way to clouds and light snow by late in the day. No significant changes are planned at this time. Previous discussion... Strong high pressure will crest over Maine early this morning and will move into the open Atlantic east of Nova Scotia this afternoon. A weak area of low pressure will move into the western Great Lakes this morning and race quickly off to the northeast into Western Quebec this evening. The low will pass near the Gaspe Bay Peninsula tonight before exiting into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence by 12Z Saturday morning. Overrunning snow will develop from west to east across the CWA this evening. The models differ on the amount of QPF with most of the models advertising 0.1-0.2" of liquid precipitation. There are some models such as the NAM that have disjointed areas of QPF with some locations only picking up a few hundredths of an inch. In any case, it looks like a light event with most areas to pick up 1-2" of snow tonight, and if there are a few pockets of slightly heavier QPF a few spots could pick up 2-3", mainly north of the Katahdin Region. As warmer air moves into the region the snow may change to a little light rain before ending Downeast with a brief period sleet or freezing rain possible from the central highlands east into southeast Aroostook County. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the upper 20s in the Saint John Valley to the mid to upper 30s along the coast. Temperatures tonight will not drop much with lows in the mid to upper 20s far north to the low 30s in the Bangor Region. No advisories are anticipated with this event, but will need to keep an eye on any possible freezing rain across mainly the central portion of the CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... After a mainly cloudy start to the day, Saturday will feature decreasing clouds as high pressure builds east through Quebec province. High temperatures Saturday afternoon will rise into the upper 30s to near 40 degrees north and low to mid 40s downeast. Saturday night will be fair and quite cold as there will be the opportunity for radiational cooling across the far north, as increasing high clouds will hold off till around daybreak. Sunday will feature increasing and thickening clouds in advance of an approaching occluded front from the west. Snow will begin to overspread western areas by midday Sunday and then expand east across the remainder of the area by late afternoon Sunday. Precipitation may transition to a wintry mix across down east by later Sunday afternoon and even all rain along the coast. At time, looks like we may need winter weather advisories for later Sunday into Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Precipitation will diminish across the area Sunday night as the occlusion pushes east. Monday and Tuesday feature mainly dry weather but a couple of weak short waves could bring isolated rain/snow showers to the north. Mainly fair and unseasonably weather conditions expected through mid to late next week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR today with conditions to lower to IFR tonight in snow with a rain/snow mix likely at KBHB and possibly at KBGR. SHORT TERM: High pressure will build across the area Saturday. Low pressure will cross the region later Sunday Sunday night. Higher pressure builds back in Monday and Tuesday. .Outlook for Saturday through Tuesday... .Sat...VFR. .Sun...IFR in snow, possible mixed precip KBGR/KBHB. .Mon...VFR. .Tue...VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: As high pressure moves east of the waters this afternoon the wind will veer into the south and begin to increase. Small craft advisory conditions are expected to develop this evening, first due to wind, and then a combo of wind and seas as the seas gradually build. Will issue a sca starting at 00z this evening. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory levels conditions possible Saturday through Sunday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...CB/Duda Marine...CB/Duda

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