Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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748 FXUS61 KCAR 282245 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 645 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will continue south to the Downeast coast tonight. The front will push offshore Friday into Friday night as low pressure along the front tracks south of the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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635 PM Update: Stronger storms seem to be diminishing, so no need to extend enhanced tstm wording much past 23z. Also, we noted a little faster clrg trend xtndg ewrd into far Nrn ME from Ern QB, so we tried to project this trend into the rest of Nrn ME into the ovrngt hrs. Otherwise, we used Obsvd fcst hi temps and late aftn/erly eve hrly temps to update fcst hrly temps in the ovrngt hrs. Orgnl Disc: Most of the current shwrs and tstms ovr our FA should move E and or dissipate from the region this eve as an s/wv slides E across Nrn ptns of the FA and a weakening cold front slowly moves S toward the Downeast coast. Sct shwrs may hold ovr Downeast areas late tngt as the front slowly moves off the coast by Fri morn, then additional shwrs are xpctd later Fri ovr Downeast areas as a weak sfc wv of coastal low pres moves ENE thru the Gulf of ME. Most of the hvy rn with this system will remain off the coast. Meanwhile, Nrn ptns of the FA will have ptly to mcldy skies on Fri. Temps will cont abv normal, xcpt for hi temps ovr Downeast Fri, which will likely be held down by cld cvr and shwrs.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure is expected to move out of the Gulf of Maine Friday night. This system should produce some showers early then the precipitation will move off to the northeast. High pressure is then expected to build in from the northeast during the day Saturday with dry conditions expected. Low pressure is the expected to develop along the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday Night then move to the northeast. This system is expected to bring showers into the area Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Another area of low pressure is expected to pass to the south of New England Sunday Night into Monday. This system could possibly bring some rain to the southern portion of the area Sunday Night into Monday while high pressure dominate to the north. A stationary font north of the State may bring some showers to the North Tuesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR all TAF sites...xcpt lcly and briefly MVFR vsbys in TSTMs and heavier SHWRs this eve and perhaps in patchy fog late tngt. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions Friday. MVFR conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday. MVFR/IFR Conditions are expected Monday at KBGR and KBHB with VFR Conditions in the North. MVFR conditions are expected in the North Tuesday with VFR conditions at KBGR and KBHB. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines xpctd tngt and Fri. Wv hts will be arnd a foot alg the nearshore and 2 to 3ft ovr the outer MZs with wv pds generally short, typical of wind wvs, in the 3 to 6 second range. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts thru the near term. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM12 for sustained winds through Sunday then transition to the Super Blend Winds. For waves: Have used the Near Shore Wave Model to initialize grids through Sunday then transition to the Wave Watch III. Wave Watch III continues to demonstrate high bias with boundary conditions for the Near Shore Wave Model, so have lower model wave heights by one foot through the entire period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Bloomer/Mignone Long Term...Bloomer/Mignone Aviation...VJN/Bloomer/Mignone Marine...VJN/Bloomer/Mignone

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