Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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212 FXUS61 KCAR 250659 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 259 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build in from the north late this afternoon adn dominate the weather into Thur morning. A pre-frontal trough may spread showers in Thursday morning with the main cold front moving across the state Thursday evening with showers and possibly thunderstorms across the north.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1006mb sfc low south of Yarmouth Nova Scotia as of 06z and wl continue to pull away fm the region this mrng. Pcpn has pretty much come to an end acrs CWA and hv decreased pops for the rmndr of tda. Showers located up ovr Adirondacks of NY mainly assoc with inverted trof in combo with upr low spinning into northern New England. Inverted trof axis wl weaken in place this mrng thus hv not included isold showers ovr wrn zones for upstream pcpn. Upr trof wl eject ovr CWA this mrng into aftn hrs but with dry air at mid and low-lvls do not expect measurable pcpn to fall. Sfc hipres currently located srn Quebec and Ontario wl begin to build into nrn Maine this aftn. This wl allow clds to bcm sunny in the St. John Vly by mid-aftn, slowly pushing south fm there. Expect all areas wl be moclr this evng tho a thin cirrus deck may be present ovr Downeast until close to midnight. Given clr skies and recent rainfall ovr srn areas, patchy fog may dvlp in Downeast late tonight thru 12z. Max temps tda wl be warmest acrs the north where clrng skies this aftn wl allow diurnal htg to mix down warm H9 temps, yielding highs in the l/m 70s. Further to the south expect clds to keep temps cooler in the m/u 60s. Ovrngt mins settle out much blo normal with m/u 40s acrs the north to arnd 50 for Downeast zones.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure will slowly build south of the region on Wednesday, leading to a dry day with increasing afternoon clouds. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with the coast staying a little cooler. The focus then turns to an approaching cold front and its preceding prefrontal trough. Flow will turn to the south southwest ahead of these features, allowing moisture to return northward. As such, Wednesday night will have a more humid feel as dewpoints rise through the 50s. Showers associated with the trough will move into northwestern maine early Thursday morning. They will then gradually shift southeast through the day as the trough does the same. Instability is not looking all that impressive as SB CAPEs are progged to stay below 900 J/kg. This will still be enough to spark a few thunderstorms though, mainly across the north. The front itself will move into the North Woods from Quebec late in the day. Daytime highs will be in the 70s for interior locations, while the coast will remain in the 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The aforementioned cold front will make its way across the state Thursday night. There are still some significant differences between the long range models thereafter. The GFS continues to clear the front through the region by Friday morning, allowing high pressure to build in, keeping the weather dry Friday through Saturday. The ECMWF, meanwhile, moves the front just offshore and moves low pressure along it, bringing the system across central New England and along the Maine coast. This would bring a swath of rain to the southern 2/3 of the state Friday into Saturday. The Canadian NH is somewhat between these two solutions, developing the low but keeping it shunted far enough south to keep our forecast area dry. Given these continuing differences, have stayed close to a model blend and slight chance/low chance PoPs for the end of the week. It does look like at least Sunday and Monday will be dry, though note that the GFS tries to produce a few showers in Sunday afternoon with a shortwave rotating around the back of the upper low. The forecast has a warming trend through the weekend, though if the ECMWF is correct, Friday and Saturday will likely be cooler than currently indicated.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours across northern terminals. BGR and BHB will start off with low MVFR cigs before gradually rising by late morning as sfc low pulls away from the area. Cannot rule out patchy IFR vsbys early this morning but confidence remains very low so did not include in forecast. AFter 16z expect southern terminals will be VFR through end of TAF valid time. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail 12z Wed to 06z Thu. Showers associated with an approaching cold front will move from northwest to southeast thereafter; MVFR conditions are likely in any precipitation. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon. Precipitation will come to an end by 06z Fri. However, additional rain is possible Friday and friday night, particularly for the southern terminals. Saturday should be dry with VFR prevailing.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds will flirt with SCA criteria very early this morning, possibly gusting as high as 23kts as low pressure passes south of Nova Scotia. Seas will remain below 5ft through tonight. SHORT TERM: No headlines are anticipated through late week. High pressure will cross the waters Wednesday and Wednesday night, keeping conditions below SCA levels. Southwest winds will increase Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front, causing seas to build to around 4 feet, but conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria. Both winds and seas will subside Thursday night into Friday once the front crosses the region.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...Farrar/Hastings Marine...Farrar/Hastings

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