Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 200510 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 110 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 107 AM UPDATE...CLOUDS ARE MOVING AWAY W/CLEARING AND A COOLDOWN ON THE WAY. TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND BACKED THEM DOWN CONSIDERABLY SHOWING WINDS SPEEDS GOING BELOW 10 MPH BY BY EARLY EASTER SUNDAY MORNING. DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. POST-FRONT AS WELL, SO EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE STATE TOMORROW, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SUN NGT...A FAST MOVG FLAT ZONAL S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLDNSS TO ALL OF THE REGION ALG WITH POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OF RN TO NRN ME LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. WITH A MINI WARM SECTOR...WRLY COMPONENT SFC WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR...HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER WELL INTO THE 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST (WHICH WILL BE COOLED BY A SEA BREEZE). A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS MOST OF THE REGION LATER MON THROUGH MON EVE...THEN BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE MON NGT. MEANWHILE MOISTURE AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL THEN MOVE EWRD INTO THE FA BY ERLY TUE MORN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES BACK NE AS WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LGT RNFL. ADDITIONAL RNFL WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE FA FROM QB LATE TUE INTO TUE EVE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CNVCTV ELEMENTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BAND... BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO SEE IF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTS TO PLACE US IN THE WARM SECTOR OVR THE NEXT FEW RUNS. HI TEMPS TUE WILL BE TRICKY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE LLVL WARM ADVCN MAY BE COUNTERBALANCED BY CLD CVR AND RNFL. WE GO WITH MAX POPS IN THE LOW CATEGORICAL (80 PERCENT) FOR LATER TUE INTO TUE EVE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS FOR TUE NGT AND WED IS HOW QUICKLY THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RNFL MOVES E OF THE FA AS A SECONDARY SFC WV OF LOW PRES FORMS OVR THE GULF OF ME. THIS TMG IS COMPLICATED BY NAO POTENTIALLY BECOMING SIG NEGATIVE OVR TM FROM MID NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH TENDS TO SLOW WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSSING OUR FA BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALF. TAKING A BLEND OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS RESULTS IN A SLOW EXIT OF STEADY RNFL LATE TUE NGT AND WED MORN TO SCT SHWRS WED AFTN ENDING WED NGT. WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NGT FOR WED AND SPCLY WED NGT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SHWRS MIXING WITH OR BRIEFLY CHGNG TO SN SHWRS BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE FAR N. OTHERWISE...THU LOOKS TO BREEZY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED AS THE GULF OF ME SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES JUST SE OF THE CAN MARITIMES AND SFC HI PRES FROM ONT PROV ONLY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EWRD TOWARD THE FA. AFT CLRG SKIES THU NGT AND A COOL START FRI MORN...TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO WARMER HI TEMPS THAN THU WITH GREATER SUNSHINE AND LGTR WINDS. THE NEXT CHC OF ANY RN FROM ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL BE NO EARLY THAN SAT WHERE WE MENTION LOW CHC POPS...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF BLOCKING...RN COULD EASILY BE DELAYED AN ADDITIONAL 12 TO 24 HRS. HI TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...AND PERHAPS ABV IF RAIN FREE WITH INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: ANY REMAINING PATCHES OF MVFR IN FAR EASTERN MAINE WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES MON AND MON NGT...LOWERING TO LOW MVFR OR IFR IN SHWRS/RN/PATCHY FOG TUE AND TUE NGT. CONDITIONS THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED AND THEN TO VFR OVRNGT WED...WITH PREDOMINATE VFR CONTG INTO THU. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW GUSTS TO SCA LEVEL AT THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TOMORROW, LEADING TO DECREASING WINDS BY EARLY MORNING. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THE SHORT TERM WITH THE NEXT SIG OPPORTUNITY FOR SCA CONDITIONS TUE INTO TUE NGT WITH S WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVG NE UP THE AT LAWRENCE VLY. WENT WITH OR SLGTLY BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS...WITH OUR FA NOW ENTERING THE TM OF SEASON WHERE THE GFS SFC WINDS (WHICH IS USED FOR WW3 WV INPUT) BEGINS TO SHOW THE WARM SEASON HI BIAS. && .HYDROLOGY... THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ICE ON THE ST JOHN MAY GET FLUSHED OUT OF NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LIKELY FIELD FLOODING OCCURRING, THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF THREATS TO ROADS OR PROPERTY. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER REMAINS HIGH AND IS STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THE GAGE NEAR THE TOWN OF MATTAWAMKEAG. THIS IS A VERY SLOW RESPONDING GAGE, SO IT WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, EFFECTS FROM THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINOR AND CALLS TO MATTAWAMKEAG AND KINGMAN THIS EVENING NOT INDICATING ANY PROBLEMS. OTHERWISE, AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SNOW TO MELT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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