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000
FXUS61 KCAR 302054
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
354 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL REGION MONDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE INVERTED TROUGH RUNNING NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
ENHANCED SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL START WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH THE TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE REACHES NOVA SCOTIA LATER TONIGHT...A TROWAL WILL EMERGE
OVER DOWN EAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL FEATURE SOME STRONG BANDS OF SNOW THAT WILL ENABLE SOME AREAS
IN DOWN EAST TO TALLY AS MUCH AS 15 INCHES FOR THIS STORM. THE
COLD DRY AIR AND DISTANCE FROM THE STORM WILL LIMIT STORM TOTALS
TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH TO AROUND 6 INCHES. HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE REDUCED SOMEWHAT BY STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 MPH ON
SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL HAVE TWO MAJOR IMPACTS. FIRST...THE SNOW
HAS LITTLE MOISTURE CONTENT AND WILL BECOME EASILY AIRBORNE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME WHITE-OUTS AND MAJOR DRIFTING ON SATURDAY.
THUS TRAVEL COULD BE MUCH MORE HAZARDOUS THAN TODAY WITH BLIZZARD-
LIKE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE SECOND IMPACT WILL BE
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO MINUS 10 TO MINUS 20F BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR AT DAYBREAK.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM WILL
SHIFT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY EVENING.  BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND THE LOW TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AND SET UP THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FRIGID NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE GFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -30F WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE.

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.  THE 12Z NAM IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER ON THE TRAJECTORY OF
THIS STORM.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS STORM.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW.  ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: LIFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VIS IMPROVING TO IFR. IFR CONTINUES FOR
ALL SITES UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO
CAUSE REDUCED VIS SATURDAY WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES SATURDAY
EVENING DUE TO SNOW AND FOG FROM A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT KBHB AND KBGR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A STRONG GALE IS EXPECTED TO JUST FALL SHORT OF STORM
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 50 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL START SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING FOR WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND HIGH SEAS.  AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
FOR SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS STILL IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS. FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-
     006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-003-
     004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...MCW/OKULSKI