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000
FXUS61 KCAR 041425
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
925 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND ALLOW A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9AM UPDATE...
INCREASED SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE IN AROOSTOOK FOR THIS MORNING WITH
LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE LAYER. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE HIGH BUILDS. ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN NORTHERN
ZONES. THE CONCERN IS THAT THE SUBSIDENCE WILL TRAP THE MOISTURE
IN A SHALLOW INVERSION. IN RESPONSE...ALSO BUMPED UP LOWS FOR
TONIGHT IN THESE ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. DESPITE THE NORTHWEST WIND TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND MID 30S TO NEAR 40
DOWNEAST. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST AND MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES NORTH...ALTHOUGH EVEN HERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN
BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE
LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRES JUST E OF THE AREA THU AM W/ DEEP LOW PRES
JUST NNE OF THE GRT LAKES...  THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT NEWRD
INTO WRN QUEBEC THU EVE W/ AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT PUSHING EWRD INTO
THE AREA BY LATE THU.  STRONG WAA ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE DAY AND W/ THE GFS NOW ON BOARD W/
THE SLOWER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT PRECIP TO ARRIVE OUR WRN
AREAS LATER THU AM AND ACROSS THE E AND NE THU AFTN.  WILL INCREASE
POPS TO LIKELY/CAT W AND NW THU AFTN AND SPREAD THIS EWRD ACROSS THE
FA LATE THU INTO THU NGT.  THIS SLOWER TIMING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS TO WARM TO A POINT WHERE SIGNIFICANT
FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP IS NOT A FACTOR.  EXPECT SOME LGT SNOW/SLEET
OR FZRA INTO OUR WRN AREAS THU AM MAINLY N OF DOVER-FOXCROFT W/ ANY
MXD PRECIP CONFINED TO JUST THE FAR N AND NW BY MID THU AFTN...
OVERALL ANY SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH AND ANY ICE ACCUMS
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH...

LOW PRES CONTS TO SPIN OVR WRN QUEBEC THU NGT W/ THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT/OCLD FRONT FCST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE THU NGT/ERLY FRI...
TEMPS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENUF SO THAT MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE FA SHOULD JUST SEE SOME RAIN AS THIS FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION.  THIS FRONT IS THEN FCST TO STALL JUST S AND SE OF THE
AREA W/ A SFC WAVE OF LOW PRES FCST TO SKIRT QUICKLY JUST S OF THE
AREA FRI AM.  WILL DECREASE POPS FROM NW-SE LATER THU NGT BUT HANG
ONTO LIKELY POPS S AND SE AND CONT THESE LIKELY POPS INTO FRI AM AS
SFC WAVE PASSES JUST TO THE S.  COLDER AND DRIER AIR THEN BEGINS TO
SPREAD THE ENTIRE FA LATER FRI AFTN AFTER THIS WAVE MVS SE OF THE
REGION...

MILD TEMPS SHOULD CONT INTO FRI W/ SOME COOLING BEGINNING BY LATER
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE N AND W...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY S AND SE OF THE AREA W/ ANOTHER SFC
WAVE OF LOW PRES FCST TO SKIRT S OF THE AREA PSBLY JUST BRUSHING
OUR FAR SRN ZNS W/ SOME PRECIP FRI NGT. OTHERWISE...A MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS IS FCST TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRI NGT AND SAT
AND REMAIN THRU SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM ABV SEASONAL NORMS
TO WELL BLO SEASONAL NORMS BY SUN THO IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY W/ NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED. THE NXT CHC FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIP
ARRIVES ON MON W/ ALL LONG TERM GUIDANCE FCSTG LOW PRES TO LIFT NE
FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEX ON SUN AND UP ACROSS THE OH VLY SUN NGT TO
A POSN OVR SERN ONT BY MON AFTN. COLD HIGH PRES E AND NE OF THE
REGION SHOULD MAKE IT TUF TO GET RID OF THE COLD AIR SO ALL
GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT THE PRIMARY LOW ATTEMPTING TO TRANSFER SOME
ITS ENERGY TO A SECONDARY LOW NR THE NWRN GULF OF MAINE BY MON
EVE. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ON TO ALL SNOW N W/ A WNTRY MX TO RAIN
S... NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE BLENDED MODEL CONSENSUS...
&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL...MVFR THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO VFR FROM
S TO N TODAY. VFR TONIGHT.

KBGR/KBHB...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDS THU AM ACROSS THE FA SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
MVFR/IFR LATER THU INTO THU NGT AS A COMPLEX FRONTAL BNDRY
APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE REGION.  VFR CONDS SHOULD RTRN TO
ALL THE TAF SITES FRI AM THO SOME MVFR TO PSBL IFR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AT OUR SRN TAF SITES DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF A SFC
WAVE OF LOW PRES FCST TO PASS S OF THE REGION ON FRI.  VFR CONDS
SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS OVR THE
REGION.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDS SHOULD DVLP OVR THE WATERS LATER THU INTO THU
NGT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W.  THESE CONDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER THU NGT/ERLY FRI AS THIS FRONT CROSSES THEN
SHIFTS E OF THE WATERS.  A GENERALLY WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS BEHIND THIS FRONT ON FRI SHOULD RESULT IN CONDS REMAINING
BLO SCA LEVELS...
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW