Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 271358 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 958 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will move across the state today. A cold front crosses the area on Saturday with showers and thunderstorms expected across southern areas during the afternoon. Unsettled weather continues into Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
955 AM update... Quick update to temp and td this mrng. Showers hv all but exited into NB with showers mvg thru Downeast at this time. Hv adjusted pops for this mrng, quicker to clr nrn CWA and sctd pops thru Downeast until aft 16z. Convection acrs Quebec wl lkly weaken as it heads into the state but wl retain isold thunder wording this aftn acrs the north. No other chgs at this time. Prev discussion blo... Clouds will increase today as high pressure moves to the east of the region and a warm front moves across the state. Expect showers to develop across the north and will also add the mention of scattered thunder in the western portions of the region. Low pressure is expected to develop to the north of the state tonight then move away to the northeast Saturday Morning. Will use the Consensus Blend for temperature based on latest verification.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Unsettled pattern continues with increasing humidity by the end of the weekend. A cold front is forecast to slide across CWA on Saturday. There is very little upper level support with the front, but some llvl convergence resides right along the front as it slides se. The atmosphere does look like it will be unstable especially across the interior Downeast and Coastal plain. The NAM is explosive w/SB CAPES of 2000+ joules and PWATS of >/= 1 inch. The GFS is less amplified but does bring SB CAPES to around 400 joules. The lacking factors are the availability of deep moisture through 700mbs and the low/mid level lapse rates are meager w/around 6.0c/km. The GFS/NAM and even the ECMWF along w/the Canadian guidance indicate some light QPF in the vicinity of the Downeast region. Therefore, kept the mention of thunderstorms but pulled back the POPs to 20% given the lacking factors mentioned earlier. Temps will be in the 70s across the northern 1/2 of the CWA while downeast and the coast will see AOA 80F given the wnw wind. The model guidance diverges come Saturday night into Sunday as the ECMWF and NAM continue their trends of bringing a decaying MCS over the upper ridge into the region w/some showers and possible tstms. The GFS and Canadian model keep things dry into midday Sunday w/high pres at the surface and aloft hanging on. Since confidence remains rather low, decided to blend the guidance and go w/30-40% POPs for showers and possibly a tstm later Saturday night into Sunday. It will be cooler on Sunday due to clouds and showers w/temps in the 60s and 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Increasingly humid into MOnday as tropical moisture gets pulled northward from the deep s. Low pres moving across central Canada will bring a warm frontal boundary toward the region Sunday night through Monday. This system is forecast to link up w/the tropical moisture from the se being ejected northward. PWATS are forecast to climb to 1.5" at least as the upper flow becomes sw. Coordinated w/GYX in mentioned heavy rainfall later Sunday night into Monday along w/some embedded tstms. It will become increasingly humid. As the warm front lifts ne into Canada, rain will taper to scattered showers Monday night. The associated cold front is forecast to slide across the region on Tuesday with more showers and possible tstms. Temps will remain above normal through this time period. Drier weather Wednesday into Thursday as high pres moves across the region. Temps during this timeframe are forecast to be near normal for early June. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect MVFR/IFR conditions today and tonight. SHORT TERM: Periods of MVFR and perhaps IFR early Saturday morning and then a return to VFR into Saturday evening. Conditions look as though they could drop back to at least MVFR by early Sunday especially for KBGR and KBHB. The northern terminals look as though they could stay VFR. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to return later Sunday night into Monday w/the potential for periods of heavy rain. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: For sustained winds will use the GFS20. For waves: Primary wave system is expected to be southerly swell 1-2 feet/8 seconds. This will be accompanied by a secondary wind wave group out of the east today then becoming more southerly tonight. SHORT TERM: No SCA headlines expected through the Memorial Day weekend. Sustained winds 10 to 15 kts at best w/seas averaging 3-4 ft and this will mainly be across the outer zones. A swell could set up Monday into Tuesday bringing higher seas to the outer zones w/heights building to near 5 ft. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/Mignone Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Farrar/Mignone/Hewitt Marine...Farrar/Mignone/Hewitt is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.