Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 101942 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 342 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CREST OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. EXPECT NEAR ZERO POPS THIS PERIOD HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND TO POPULATE THIS GROUP. NO QPF IS EXPECTED. FOR WIND GRIDS HAVE USED THE ALL BLEND. FOR THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS HAVE USED THE CONSENSUS ALL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ALONG WITH THREE HOUR AND DEW POINT GRIDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A SLIGHTLY MUGGIER AIRMASS MOVES IN ON SATURDAY, BUT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. CLOUDS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INLAND. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY KICKS NORTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW EXACTLY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESS. HOWEVER, GENERALLY WE ARE LOOKING FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS. THERE MAY BE SOME STRONGER STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC. DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN BY LATER WEDNESDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR FOR SATURDAY. POTENTIAL MORNING MVFR AND IFR SUNDAY MORNING FOR BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR WITH MOISTER ONSHORE FLOW. MAINLY VFR FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH WORSE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE USED THE CONSENSUS ALL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS LONG PERIOD WAVE GENERATED SOUTHERLY FETCH FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD LESS SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FETCH HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS BUT A 3 FOOT/8 SECOND GROUP REMAINS. WINDS HAVE NOW FALLEN WELL BELOW 10 KNOTS SO WIND WAVE IS NOT A FACTOR AND LONGER PERIOD BACKGROUND SWELL IS WELL BELOW 1 FOOT. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS. SHORT TERM: ONSHORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WAVES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM LESS THAN 3 FEET ON SUNDAY TO ABOVE 5 FEET FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...MIGNONE/FOISY MARINE...MIGNONE/FOISY

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