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000
FXUS61 KCAR 262236
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
636 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will push east of the region this evening. A cold
front will cross the region later Thursday through Thursday
night. High pressure will build Friday and into the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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635 PM Update... Adjusted the hrly temps/dewpoints to fit the
latest conditions. Surface analysis showed dewpoints starting to
climb as ssw winds taking hold. Satl imagery showed high clouds
edging ever so closer to the region w/lower clouds seen back
over Quebec. Clouds will continue to fill in this evening w/any
rain held at bay through late evening as it looks attm. Latest
forecast has this well handled. Will have another update later
this evening.

Previous Discussion...
Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to propagate
eastward this evening. A south flow on the backside of the high
will result cool marine air moving into coastal zones with some
fog developing later in the night. Lows there will be in the mid
50s. Further inland, warm southwesterly winds and increasing
clouds will keep lows around 60F. By later in the night, some
light shower activity could affect northern and western zones.
This precipitation will be with a rather subtle warm front. The
warm front will slowly work into the area on Thursday with dew
points creeping back into the 60s...a contrast to recent days
with dew points in the 40s. This added low level moisture and
the warm front will spread a lot of cloud cover over the area on
Thursday that will keep highs in the lower to mid 70s. The
onshore flow along the coast means highs there will be in the
lower 60s with fog burning off, but cloudiness through the day.
The warm front will continue to produce some shower activity
Thursday morning. The big concern will be later Thursday
afternoon in northern zones with the approach of the cold front
and cold upper trough. While cloud cover will limit SBCAPE,
there is some concern that some later afternoon clearing could
generate more SBCAPE than currently being advertised by model
guidance. Other measures such as bulk shear and mid-level lapse
rates give the hint of some stronger storms with the cold front.
Have added enhanced wording for late afternoon into the evening
in northern zones. Slow storm motions, a relatively deep warm
cloud layer and increasing PWs just ahead of the front also led
to mention of some locally heavier precipitation in the northern
zones.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front is expected to approach from the west Thursday
Night then move across the region Friday Morning. This system
should result in scattered showers Thursday Night then skies are
expected to clear Friday Morning as high pressure builds in
behind the front. Low pressure is then expected to develop to
the south of New England Friday Night. The low will then move
eastward out into the Atlantic keeping most of the rain
associated with the low off-shore Saturday, although there is a
chance of some of the showers reaching coastal areas Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong high pressure is expected to remain over the region
Saturday Night and Sunday. A weak area of low pressure is
expected to move across northern areas Monday into early tuesday
resulting in a few showers while southern portions of the area
remain dry. Southern areas could get some showers Wednesday as
the front continues to move to the south.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR will be the predominant condition with the
exception of sea fog rolling into BHB and Machias later this
evening and into early Thursday morning. Otherwise, some MVFR
cigs will develop from BGR northward on Thursday morning.
Afternoon thunderstorms will develop Thursday afternoon...mostly
north of a line from GNR to HUL. Some storms could be strong.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Friday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Fog is expected to move over the waters tonight into
Thursday with more humid air and a warm front. Winds will pick
up Thursday with a few gusts towards 20 kts. Seas will build
towards 3 feet.

SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM for wind grids. Winds are expected
to increase from the northeast Saturday, otherwise winds are
expected to be light. For Waves: The primary wave system
Saturday will be northeasterly wind wave as low pressure passes
to the southeast. For the remainder of the period longer period
southeasterly swell (1-2 feet/9 seconds) will dominate under
light wind conditions.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt/MCW
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Hewitt/MCW/Mignone
Marine...Hewitt/MCW/Mignone