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222
FXUS61 KCAR 031857
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
257 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front cross the area through tonight. An upper low will
move across the region on Friday followed by high pressure on
Saturday. A cold front will push into the area Sunday and stall
over the area Monday into Tuesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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...Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect...

A line of thunderstorms along a prefrontal trough will continue
to push eastward through the forecast area. This line of storms
has a history of gusty to damaging winds and small hail. The
environment this line is moving into is less conducive for hail
development with lower shear values (25 kts versus 35 kts in the
north), and the main threat out of storms in this area at this
time will be gusty to damaging winds. That said, the most potent
storms will be the discrete cells that develop out ahead of the
main line, and ahead of the developing cold pool from the
outflow from the main line.

Isolated to scattered storms may develop behind the prefrontal
trough and along the main cold front, which is pushing into the
western portion of the forecast area this afternoon. The
environment behind the prefrontal trough is fairly overworked,
though enough CAPE remains from brief pockets of clearing that
could support brief thunderstorm development. Lightning
potential will decrease into the evening and overnight hours due
to lack of diurnal heating and increased low level
stabilization. Patchy fog may move onshore from the Gulf of
Maine overnight, leading to reduced visibility along the coast.
The thunderstorm threat decreases towards the coast this evening
due to the stable marine layer, but does not fall all the way to
zero as storms may become elevated.

A deep upper level low will push over the state for the day on
Friday, introducing a cold pool aloft and increasing mid level
lapse rates. That said, the positioning between the left
entrance region and right exit regions of two jet streaks will
limit the amount of lift available. That said, given enough
surface heating, scattered diurnally-driven showers may
develop, particularly across the north. And given the increasing
cold air aloft, there may be a few thunderstorms, again mostly
across the north.

Showers and storms diminish Friday evening with skies clearing
out Friday night. With winds becoming light and variable
overnight, radiational cooling could allow for temperatures to
fall into the low to mid 50s overnight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Generally expect mostly/partly sunny skies Saturday. However,
if the cold pool aloft is slow to exit could also still have
enough instability to support the slight chance of an afternoon
shower across northern areas. Expect slightly above normal
level temperatures Saturday. A warm front could cross the
region Saturday night with a slight chance of showers mostly
north. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies. A cold front
should begin to approach northern areas later Sunday. Expect a
chance of showers/thunderstorms in advance of the front. Expect
above normal level temperatures Sunday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A cold front should begin to cross the forecast area Sunday
night. Expect a chance of showers/thunderstorms in advance of
the front. The cold front should slowly cross the region Monday
into Monday night with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. The
front could then stall near the Downeast coast Tuesday while low
pressure moves along the front. Could still have a chance of
showers, slight chance of a thunderstorm, Tuesday dependent on
the proximity of the stalled front. Expect above normal level
temperatures Monday. Near normal, to slightly above normal,
level temperatures are expected Tuesday. Weak high pressure may
build in on Wednesday, though lingering moisture coupled with
diurnal heating may lead to isolated rain showers.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Thunderstorms continue to push through GNR/MLT/HUL
and south late this afternoon and evening. These storms have a
history of gusty winds, and each terminal will likely see
thunderstorm activity last for about 1 to 2 hours before they
exit the area. Behind this line of storms, there could be a few
scattered showers and storms that follow with the main cold
front, otherwise VFR SCT to OVC skies may linger into the night
with winds becoming light and variable. BHB could see IFR/LIFR
FG through the night as fog moves onshore. For Friday, Downeast
terminals to remain VFR while northern terminals will be
generally VFR to SCT MVFR. Lower conditions possible in any
showers and storms that develop through the day, particularly
across northern terminals. SKC to return Friday night with VFR
conditions and light and variable winds.


SHORT TERM:
Saturday...VFR. Light W to SW wind.

Saturday night...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR over the north late.
SW wind. Chance for some SW wind shear, especially over the
north.

Sunday...MVFR north, possibly lowering to IFR at times. VFR south.
SW wind, becoming light and variable over the north.

Sunday night...MVFR north. VFR possibly becoming MVFR south. light
and variable wind.

Monday...MVFR. Light and variable wind.

Monday night...MVFR/IFR. Light and variable wind.

Tuesday...MVFR becoming VFR north. Northwest wind around 5
knots.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will below below SCA levels through
Friday night. Chance for thunderstorms early this evening, with
gusty winds possible. Patchy fog may reduce visibility tonight
into Friday morning.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Saturday. Wind gusts could approach 25 kts on the coastal waters
on Sunday, with seas approaching 5 to 6 ft.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...AStrauser/Norcross
Marine...AStrauser/Norcross