Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271049 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 649 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region Today then move to the east Sunday. A low in Quebec will drag a warm front across the area Sunday night, followed by a cold front on Monday. High pressure returns Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 6:45 am: Have adjusted temperature and dew point. No other changes. Strong high pressure will build in from the northwest today and crest over the region this evening. The high will then move off to the east late tonight and Sunday Morning. This system is expected to bring dry conditions through tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Another round of wet weather heading our way during this term. A frontal system is expected to move into the region Sunday night and pass across the CWA on Monday. All the short range guidance including the GFS/NAM and ECMWF support a broad area of low pres moving across northern areas. There appears to be 2 areas of rainfall w/up to 0.25 inch associated w/this system. One area of rainfall is expected northern Maine w/the second area across Downeast Maine. Both of these areas reside w/the best mid level forcing as shown well by the OOZ GFS and NAM. The ECMWF and Canadian Global appear to be to high w/the QPF. Decided on pops of 60-70% into early Monday. Atmosphere does look like it could destabilize later in the morning into the early afternoon. BUFKIT soundings show CAPE of 500 to possibly 1000 joules w/lis down to -2 and mid level lapse rates near 6.5c/km. Attm, not too confident about convection given the recovery time from the earlier rain. Therefore, leaned w/20% mention for tstms for Monday. Still some time to assess this situation w/the later model guidance. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... More wet weather for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Weak high pres will slide across the region Monday night into Tuesday w/some drying although it will be brief. Daytime Temperatures will reach well into the 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday. Another frontal system is fcst to affect the CWA later Tuesday night into Wednesday w/more showers. The guidance could be overloading things w/the QPF given the zonal flow aloft. Given this setup, decided to lean w/40-50% for pops. GFS soundings support some instability w/CAPE OF 1000-1500 joules across the Central Highlands and Downeast region Wednesday afternoon. Decent mid level lapse rates of 6.5 c/km. Timing will be the key. Confidence is no higher than 20% attm and given some uncertainties w/the timing and stable layer hanging on, decided on Slight Chance for tstms in the aforementioned areas. As is the case in the short term section, there is still some time to assess this potential. Temps will be cooler across the northern areas on Wednesday w/afternoon readings forecast to be in the low to mid 70s. Central and downeast areas should see upper 70s to lower 80s. Unsettled into Thursday and possibly Friday as an upper level system moves across the region. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR Conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. SHORT TERM: VFR dropping to MVFR Sunday night and then to IFR by Monday morning. MVFR conditions look like they hang on into Monday afternoon across the northern terminals while KBGR and KBHB go VFR. VFR w/patchy fog possible Tuesday morning and a brief period of MVFR. Most of Tuesday into Tuesday evening will be VFR. .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Will use the NAM12 to populate the wind grids. For waves: Primary wave system is shorter period swell (2 feet/6 seconds) generated earlier in the Gulf of Maine yesterday from southwest winds. This wave system is accompanied by a longer period southeasterly swell system (1 foot/8-9 seconds). Will use the Near Shore Wave Model to Populate grids. SHORT TERM: No headlines through Tuesday. Winds will generally run 10-15 kts. Seas will build a bit w/a swell component setting up bringing heights to 4-5 ft especially across the outer zones. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Mignone/Hewitt Marine...Mignone/Hewitt

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