-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 011906
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
306 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
HIGH WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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ANY STRAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS AROUND EARLY TONIGHT WILL
DISSIPATE GIVING WAY TO A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EVENING. SOME FOG
WILL LIKELY FORM LATE AT NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY DOWNEAST AS A WEAK MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CARRY A BIT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
OVER WESTERN AREAS, LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CAPES ARE WEAK AT ONLY
AROUND 200 J/KG BUT THE AIR WILL CARRY A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN IT
DID TODAY INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. FOG WILL LIKELY
PERSIST IN COASTAL AREAS AS A FLOW OF HUMID AIR CONTINUES OVER THE
COLDER WATERS.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE THING
TO NOTE IS THAT THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN INTO NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WEAKER AND
KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. I HAVE LEANED WITH THE OP GFS SOLUTION BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT IF THE LOW DOES INDEED TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST AS
INDICATED BY THE ECMWF. OTHERWISE EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION BUT COOLER ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE OUT
MONDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TUESDAY COULD BE
AN INTERESTING DAY CONVECTION WISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM
CENTRAL CANADA AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER TROF AND COLD POCKET ALOFT SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROF/COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY GO DOWN TO IFR
AT TIMES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN ON SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PSBL AT NIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN LOW CIGS/FOG. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUN AND MON. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH
SATURDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST WHERE WATERS ARE COOLER DUE TO
TIDAL MIXING.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM
IN MAINLY LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG AND IN SCATTERED DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND ISLOD TSTMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&


.CLIMATE...
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JULY 2014 TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FINISHED ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE. CARIBOU`S AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
WAS 68.1 DEGREES WHICH WAS 2.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
CARIBOU`S MONTHLY PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO ABOVE NORMAL WITH 7.06
INCHES IN JULY WHICH WAS 2.98 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

AT BANGOR THE JULY AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES
WHICH WAS 1.6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BANGOR`S PRECIPITATION FOR JULY
WAS 6.78 INCHES WHICH WAS 3.32 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
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THE KCBW-88D IS BACK IN SERVICE AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS
BEEN RUNNING STABLE THUS FAR. TELCO WILL BE MONITORING THE CIRCUIT
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO MAKE SURE IT REMAINS STABLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...BLOOMER/DUDA
MARINE...BLOOMER/DUDA
CLIMATE...DUDA
EQUIPMENT...DUDA