Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241331 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 931 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will slowly build toward the region from the west through Monday as an upper level low across the Maritimes continues to move east. Low pressure and an occluded front will approach the area Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update...The big question remains lows tonight and the risk of frost towards Aroostook County. A first look at data suggests that the combination of winds and H925/H850 moisture will mitigate the risk of frost in the northern zones. Guidance and satellite imagery shows the low level moisture advecting south from Quebec. As a result, will not be issuing any advisories at this time and will advertise patchy frost in northern zones. Previous discussion... The upper low across the maritimes will slowly move east today as surface high builds southeast from central Canada. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies today. Highs will range from the low to mid 50s north and upper 50s to low 60s downeast. Surface high pressure will continue to build slowly east tonight as the upper low slowly moves east. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight. Some patchy frost will be possible across the north, however, thinking there will be enough in the way of clouds and a northwest gradient to mitigate any widespread frost development. Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 30s north and upper 30s to near 40 downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An upper low in the Canadian Maritimes will slowly shift east Sunday into Monday with an upper ridge to build into western New England by 00z Tuesday. The air mass will be dry Sunday with precipitable H20 Values generally 0.50" or less, however, a shortwave trough in the flow will produce a good deal of stratocu across the Crown of Maine with perhaps a few sprinkles or an isolated brief shower, but measurable QPF is not likely. There will be a bit more in the way of sunshine with a mix of sun and cloud toward the coast. Highs Sunday will be from 5 to 10 degrees below average with highs from the low 50s in the Saint John Valley to around 60 degrees in the Greater Bangor Region. A surface ridge builds into the area Sun night, and if the stratocu can dissipate there could potentially be widespread frost across northern areas, and even a freeze in the normally cold northwest Maine valleys. Patchy Frost is possible south into parts of interior Down East Maine. Monday is looking like a real nice fall day, with lots of sunshine, light wind, and highs from the upper 50s north to the low 60s Down East. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure both surface and aloft across the Great lakes Mon night will push east. This will send an occluded front toward the area Tuesday. Monday night will feature increasing clouds with the chance of rain after midnight. The models do differ on the timing as to whether rain develops late Monday night or Tuesday morning. For now will go with a compromise solution on the timing. If it is not already raining first thing Tue morning, rain will overspread the area during the morning. Did increase the Pops to likely for Tuesday, which was a little higher than the model consensus as it looks likely that it will rain. Most areas will see the steady rain end Tue night, but the rain may hold on a bit longer in Washington County into Wed morning. Drier weather expected Thu into Fri, with slightly above average temperatures for late September. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR today along with gusty northwest winds. MVFR cigs are possible across the northern terminals tonight. SHORT TERM: MVFR likely at times at the northern terminals from KHUL to KFVE Sunday in stratocu with VFR at the Down East terminals. VFR Sun night into Monday with the possible exception of Patchy late night river valley fog that could locally produce IFR Visibility, mainly at KHUL and KPQI. Conditions will go downhill to IFR/MVFR in Rain Tue, with MVFR likely to linger across parts of the region into Wed. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas should remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. SHORT TERM: Offshore flow expected Sun with the flow becoming weak Mon. Will need to keep an eye on the swell from TS Karl as it could generate some long period swell across the coastal waters Sun, but right now it looks like seas will remain around 5 ft, so it is marginal for a small craft advisory. A better chance that a small craft advisory will be needed Tuesday ahead of the occluded front. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda/MCW Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Duda/MCW/CB Marine...Duda/MCW/CB

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