Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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582 FXUS61 KCAR 231200 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 700 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move through Quebec today bringing a cold front through the region tonight. High pressure will return on Friday. A warm front will cross the region Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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655 AM Update... Temps drop a bit more early this morning w/upper teens in some of the low spots of the northern and western locales. Some freezing fog still around w/some icy spots on roads possible this morning. Upgraded the fog across the downeast to areas this morning. Reports of vsby down to <1/4 of a mile. Expecting improving conditions later this morning w/the warming trend and s winds kicking in. Radar trends showing some returns showing across across far northern areas of Aroostook County this morning ahead of the warm front. Still expecting some light snow or even sleet/freezing for a brief period across the far n and w as the warm front lifts n. Not expecting much accumulation w/this batch of precip. Previous Discussion... Another mild day in store w/more melting. Temps in some areas this morning dropped below 20F such PQI and MLT. Looks like temps across just about the entire CWA down below 32F w/some fog around. Latest IR satl imagery showed clouds advancing ahead of a warm front lifting across the region this morning. Radar showed returns back across Quebec pushing ene. The latest HRRR and RAP lining up well w/bringing an area of precip across far northern and western areas this morning. Temps being below 32F will leading to the potential for some freezing rain/drizzle or even sleet for a brief period mainly across the north and west. Further s, conditions should remain dry. Not expecting much in the way of icing as temps should warm fairly quickly and be well above 32F by mid morning. Temps will continue to warm into the afternoon as the region gets into the warm sector. We are talking afternoon temps shooting well into the 40s and even lower 50s in central and downeast locations. Dewpoints going above 32F will lead to a melting of the snowpack. The main action of precip will arrive later this afternoon into the evening w/the apchg cold front. There does appear to be a pre-frontal trof to set up ahead of the front. Mdl sounding data from the NAM & RAP support the potential for some squalls in the form of heavy rain showers and winds gusts of 30+ mph. Strong llvl shear of 35+ kts along w/steep lapse rates in the low and mid level lend support for the squalls. Another thing to note was the elevated CAPE of 120+ joules on the NAM across the northern areas which would help to support the squall potential. There is even concern about some isolated tstms. Lightning detection showed some activity across Lake Huron and this activity was moving ne. Will look at this potential again later this morning w/the update. The cold front is forecast to slide across the CWA tonight w/showers pushing off to the e. A slight cooling is expected overnight w/some clearing as temps fall back into the upper 20s and lower 30s across the n and w. Central and downeast areas will see mid 30s. Winds will pick up some later in the evening but show signs of letting up by early Friday morning. This will allow for fog development w/wet surface. Decided to add the mention of fog in the forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A weak cold front is expected to be through the area by Friday morning with the area in a col. The front will tend to lift back northward as a warm front later in the day while a cold high in Quebec subtly wedges into northern Maine. This will bring enough low level cold air for a freezing rain and sleet event north of Houlton on Friday night. A tenth of an inch of ice is possible...mixed with sleet. Rain will occur further south as the warm front moves northward. On Saturday, the entire area will be in the warm sector with a moist south to southeasterly flow. Expect this will cause widespread low clouds, fog, drizzle and rain Saturday and Saturday night...especially in upslope areas in Piscataquis and northern Penobscot counties. The cold front will cross Saturday night with rainfall amounts around a quarter to a half inch. Locally heavier amounts are possible due to instability aloft. The amount of rain by itself is not expected to cause significant hydro issues, but the long period of mild temperatures from now through the cold frontal passage will be an issue. Most areas in the southern half of the forecast area will be above freezing from now until Sunday night. Dew points will reach well into the 40s later Saturday into Saturday night ahead of the cold front. Rivers will have to watched for ice movement by Saturday night into Sunday with the threat of ice jams. The rain will change to snow later Saturday night for a brief time in the northern half of the area with no significant accumulations expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Temperatures will remain relatively mild on Sunday with highs in the upper 30s north and low to mid 40s for Bangor and the Down East region. Besides potential river issues, winds will be notable on Sunday with gusts over 30 mph in a well-mixed boundary layer. Cooler air finally arrives for Sunday night to slow the melting. For early next week, daytime temperatures will be above freezing, but nighttime temperatures will drop well below freezing with low dew points. This will slow snow melt to a much more manageable level. Did go below guidance on Monday night as the high builds over the area. By Wednesday, the next significant low pressure system will be moving into the area. At this time, have played for a storm track to the north of the area...meaning snow changing to rain as far north as northern Aroostook County...but it`s still too early for high confidence. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR vsbys w/fog this morning across portions of the northern sector such as KCAR while IFR vsbys for some downeast sites which includes KBHB. KBGR was seeing fog starting to develop. Conditions are expected to drop back to MVFR and even IFR today into the evening. LLWS will be a concern later this afternoon into the evening mainly across the northern terminals w/the cold fropa. Fog potential is there once again overnight leading to IFR/MVFR vsbys. SHORT TERM: For Friday, some MVFR cigs are possible with good vis. On Friday night, IFR cigs will move into the area with some freezing rain and sleet north of HUL. IFR cigs and vis will continue to be the predominant condition Saturday into Saturday night with fog, rain and drizzle. VFR tempo MVFR cigs return Sunday into Monday. Strong west winds will gust over 30 mph on Sunday into Sunday evening. Tempo IFR vis in snow showers will be a threat on Monday north of HUL. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Decided to hoist the SCA for the outer zones for this afternoon into tonight mainly for gusts to hit 25+ kts ahead of the apchg cold front. There is a 35-40 kt jetstreak that is forecast to move across the region aiding in the stronger winds gusts. The winds are expected to drop off after 1 am w/the front clearing the region. Seas will be at 2-4 ft. SHORT TERM: There is a possibility of an SCA Saturday night, but confidence is not high as it will be very stable and have fog in the forecast for Saturday into Saturday night. It is much more likely to have an SCA from Sunday into Monday. Marginal gale winds are possible Sunday afternoon. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EST Friday for ANZ050-051.
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