Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 161401 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 901 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east today as low pressure tracks north of the region. A weak cold front will then cross the state tonight. High pressure is expected to build back across the region on Tuesday. Low pressure will pass well south of the state on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update... Radar starting to show some returns across far northern Maine and the St John valley attm. Latest observations not showing much snow reaching the ground quite yet with low levels still fairly dry but we should eventually see some snow shower activity develop by afternoon across northern areas. Any accumulation will be an inch or less. Elsewhere, across down east expect a dry day today. Only minor tweaks to going forecast. High pressure will move to the southeast of New England today. At the same time low pressure will approach the State from the northwest, passing to the north of the region later today and this evening. This will result in light snow across the north this afternoon into this evening. Colder air will move back into the region late tonight behind the low.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ridge axis wl be mvg acrs the area on Tue with lgt winds and prtly- mstly sunny skies. H5 system currently spinning in the srn Plains wl eject northeast Mon/Mon ngt and this wl set the stage for the potential winter storm for mid-week. High pressure wl shift east into Newfoundland late Tue ngt. Enuf of a ridge axis wl affect far nrn zones into Wed mrng and prevent much in the way of snowfall acrs the St. John Vly. Isentropic lift expected in the Bangor and Downeast areas by daybreak Wed. Med range guidance is coming into better agreement with secondary low dvlpmnt in vicinity of Cape Cod Wed mrng. This keeps a cold airmass acrs CWA thru the course of the event. WAA aloft does not appear to get any further north than srn New Hampshire on Wed. Question than bcms how much snow wl nrn zones see on Wed. Given proximity of the high not expect much more than chc pops and lgt snow, with accums arnd 1 inch at the most tho it wl more likely be less than 0.5 inches thru Wed. Cannot rule out 2-3 inches of snow for Downeast thru Wed and if inverted trof can set up, may see advisory lvl amnts thru Wed night tho this is looking less lkly with subsequent model runs. Upr lvl trof wl mv thru Wed night with sctd snow showers acrs entire CWA, more widespread in orographic lift in the North Woods. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Once upr trof mvs thru Thu building ridge wl appch fm the west. This wl lkly result in Omega block into the weekend which leads to fairly uneventful wx thru the end of the long term. Temps wl be well abv normal thru the pd. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions are expected KFVE KCAR, and KPQI this afternoon into this evening. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected. SHORT TERM: VFR expected Tue into Tue night before lowering to IFR Wed morning as -SN impacts BHB and BGR. IFR spreads to northern terminals during the day Wed, impacting all areas overnight. MVFR restrictions expected Thu in -SHSN improving to VFR on Fri. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM12 for sustained winds. Expect conditions to exceed SCA criteria for wave heights and wind gusts this afternoon into this evening so will issue SCA. For waves: Currently wind wave is the only significant wave system begin observed. Southwest wind wave will build this afternoon into this evening. Expect wave heights to build to 6-8 feet/6-7 seconds by this evening. Direction of existing wave system is off-shore, so new fetch will not build on old wave system. Will use the Near Shore Wave Model for wave heights as boundary conditions look reasonable. SHORT TERM: Expected conditions to remain below SCA levels into Wed morning before seas build in serly swell and wind gusts aoa 25kts as system passes south of the Gulf of Maine. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Duda/Farrar Marine...Duda/Farrar

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