-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 210954
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
554 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SMALL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
6 AM UPDATE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO COVER EASTERN AREAS.
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 8 AM AFTER WHICH THE
DAYS HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN OUT THE FOG. TODAY WILL THEN
REMAIN HUMID WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY AS A SMALLD DISTURBANCE TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION.

HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM IN MANY
AREAS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING BUT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY WITH STRATUS TO THE SOUTH AND STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE
NORTH. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TODAY
AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE NORTH DURING THE MID MORNING
PERIOD. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT TONIGHT. A
LARGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT SPREADING
RAIN INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WILL
MAKE IT TO THE NORTH. THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HUMID TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH FOG LIKELY IN MANY AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE
HUMID AIR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRING
UP TO TWO THIRDS OF INCH OF QPF TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE ON
WEDNESDAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE NORTH OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOWS A WARM SECTOR TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON MUCAPE VALUES IN THE WARM SECTOR...THAT BEING
SAID VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS DIVERGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CLOSES OFF AN H5 UPPER
LOW FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A DAMP AND
COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE 00Z CANADIAN DEVELOPS AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MOVES IT
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT DOES CLEAR THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDES A DRY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR DOWNEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND THEN VFR LATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH
TONIGHT MAY LOWER TO IFR IN FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN AND FOG.  MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG
PERSISTING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 10 FEET AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-002-
     005-006-011-017-030-032.
MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...BLOOMER/OKULSKI
MARINE...BLOOMER/OKULSKI