Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240138 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 938 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak weather disturbance will cross far northern Maine this evening with isolated showers. Another weak weather system could produce an afternoon shower in the Saint John Valley Wednesday afternoon. A cold front will cross the region Friday with showers and thunderstorms and will be followed by high pressure this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 935 PM Update. Minor adjustments to the HRLY temps and SKYCON, otherwise no major changes to the previous forecast. . Previous discussion. A shortwave seen on satellite pictures moving across southern Quebec early this afternoon will clip northern Maine this evening with clouds and the chance of a shower. The best chance of a shower will be to the north of a Clayton lake to Presque Isle line before 00z, but can`t entirely rule out a shower until around midnight. The sky will be partly to at times mostly cloudy across far northern Maine and mainly clear Down East after daytime cu dissipates. Lows tonight will mostly be in the mid to upper 50s. Wednesday will be a warmer day with west/southwest flow. A weak weather disturbance could touch off an isolated afternoon shower in far northern Maine, mainly in the Saint John Valley. Otherwise, it will be partly sunny in the north and mostly sunny across the southern half of the CWA. Temperatures will be a good 5 to 8 degrees warmer than this afternoon as 925h temps climb from +16-18C this afternoon to +20-22C tomorrow. Highs will top out in the low to mid 80s for most inland areas, but cooler along and near the shoreline where the flow will turn onshore. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Wed night should have mostly clear skies, though S`ly breezes will keep temps in the 60s as dewpts hold around 60F. Shortwave upper trof with associated sfc low will move east across the region Thurs, with some shwrs and perhaps a few storms psbl thru the day. Better POPs will be further north, with the S`ward extent of the chc POPs dependent on the exact track of the sfc Low - a source of minor disagreement btwn models. Very brief upr ridging behind this feature may allow for a brief break in precip, but shwrs may linger in the St. John Valley. Friday is starting to look like an interesting day - Perhaps one of our last chances at strong to psbly severe storms. Multiple models are pointing toward psbl CAPE over 1000 J/kg, with the potential for some strong shear as the upper feature swings over the area. For now, did not put in any enhanced wording, but will need to closely monitor - the timing of the front will be crucial, with a slower front more favorable to strong storms. POPs for Fri aftn & eve are high-end Chc to Lkly. Temps will remain abv nrml for the short term, ahead of the front before dropping off in the long term period. A faster front would likely lead to a decrease in the fcst high temps for Fri. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... It looks like a great weekend across the CWA as a broad upr ridge moves off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and a sfc high moves from Quebec to the Gulf of Maine and Nova Scotia. High will range from the low 70s in the North Woods to around 80 for interior Downeast, and dewpts should be noticeably lower. However, the previous expectations of the ridge and sfc high to hold on into Monday appear to be in doubt, with both the GFS and ECMWF showing a breakdown in the ridge as a shortwave 500mb trof moves from the Great Lakes toward the coast. The CMC currently stands alone showing a stronger ridge and slower progression of the trof. At this time, did not put any thunder in the forecast for Monday, but will need to keep an eye on that as well. If this system does indeed come through on Monday, then Tuesday looks to be a nice day, with seasonable high temps and offshore winds. However, until the timing of the Monday feature gets locked down a bit more over the next few model runs, will need to keep an eye on the potential for Tuesday`s weather to deteriorate. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR for the next 24 hours with the only exception very brief MVFR north of KPQI this evening and again Wed PM in any showers. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions across the area expected Wed night. That should continue for KBGR and KBHB on Thu, but KHUL thru KFVE could have some showers and perhaps a tstorm bringing MVFR or brief IFR conditions to those sites. The chance for periodic MVFR or IFR conditions will continue thru Thu night, and more widespread reductions appear likely on Friday, when more showers and psbl strong storms are expected across the entire area. As that system clears out, a return to VFR conditions expected at all areas, though will need to monitor for psbl patchy fog both nights, due to the clear skies and recent moisture. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through Wednesday. SHORT TERM: Wind gusts will be near SCA criteria levels Thu afternoon thru Fri morning. Fresh onshore winds are forecast to build seas Thu into Fri, with seas currently expected to peak at 5-7 feet from later Thu afternoon thru Fri evening. A small craft advisory will be needed if this forecast pans out. && .CLIMATE... Since June 1st it has been the 10th wettest summer to date on record at Caribou, and since the 1st of the year it ranks as the 6th wettest year to date on record. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norton Short Term...Kredensor Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...CB/Norton/Kredensor Marine...CB/Norton/Kredensor Climate...

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