Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201009 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 609 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push east of the region today as a weather disturbance lifts north across the area. Low pressure will lift north through Quebec tonight and Wednesday. High pressure will build south of the region on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6 AM Update...Complex pattern early this morning. One shortwave is now coming into the southwestern part of our area producing an area of showers. This is expected to quickly lift northeast carrying showers the region. Another shortwave, of greater concern, is now just crossing from northern New York state into western New England. This second shortwave will lift across the area around midday and potentially produce some thunderstorms, possibly with heavy rain, during the midday and early afternoon. However, it remains uncertain how much sunshine, if any, we can have between the two shortwaves to enhance the instability. For now kept showers mostly Downeast this morning and then the chance of thunderstorms, some with heavy downpours, through the midday and afternoon. Keeping flash flood watch up with the potential for soaking downpours with this second shortwave. The cold front which brought thunderstorms on Monday has moved east of the region. However, another small weather disturbance will lift north across the area today likely producing a few more thunderstorms during the midday. The potential for heavy downpours in some areas still exists so will leave the flash flood watch up for today. Current models suggest central areas have the highest chance for additional storms. Capes are projected to be close to 1K J/KG during the midday. The shortwave will lift northeast as a very weak secondary frontal boundary pushes east of the region late this afternoon. Any showers should end this evening. Skies will partially clear Downeast tonight but remain partly to mostly cloudy over the north.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Another chance for showers and possible tstms for Wednesday w/some drying for Thursday. A cold front at the surface coupled w/the upper low will combine to produce another round of showers and possible tstms on Wednesday. There are some differences in the convective potential with the guidance especially in timing. The NAM is early w/the convective potential(by 12-15z)while the GFS is a bit later(16-21z). Both show potential for convection to be across the northern and central areas. Lapse rates are forecast to steepen (up to 6.5 c/km) and CAPE potential of 400 to 800 joules is forecast. Lifted indices are projected to drop to -1 to -3. Shear is also there as well(around 30 kts). Moisture does appear to be available. Given the llvl warming that is forecast and cold pool aloft, thinking is that tstms will develop but confidence in coverage is low. As stated earlier, northern and central areas look like they could see the best potential for convection. Attm, am not looking for organized convection and therefore have decided to keep enhanced wording out of the forecast. Daytime temps are forecast to be in the 70s. Activity will diminish during the evening hrs on Wednesday w/some clearing. It will be much cooler as overnight lows are expected to drop into the upper 40s across the far n and w. Elsewhere, low to mid 50s elsewhere. Weak high pres ridging expected for Thursday w/some sunshine and comfortable daytime temps in the 70s once again. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Another potent system is expected to affect the region on Friday w/the threat for showers and tstms. Long range guidance including the ECMWF and GFS show decent llvl warming ahead of the low pres system w/a wsw flow aloft. The GFS and ECMWF are close in the rainfall potential on Friday and possible convection but differ in moving the system out. The GFS is faster in clearing things out by later Friday night into Saturday while the ECMWF keeps showers lingering into early Saturday. The Canadian Global is closer to the GFS w/clearing things out sooner. Therefore, attm decided to go w/showers and tstms Friday into Friday evening and brought pops to 60%. As far as carrying precip chances into Saturday, decided to take a split on this and carry 20-30% pops for now using a consensus blend. As a matter of fact, the pattern remains unsettled from Sunday right into early next week as a broad upper trof remains in place across the eastern portion of the U.S. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds and some fog are expected this morning. Conditions should improve to VFR this afternoon with the exception of any thundershowers. VFR conditions are expected tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR for all terminals starting out on Wednesday but conditions are expected to drop to at least MVFR by midday especially from KHUL northward. This will be mainly due to showers and tstms. KBGR and KBHB look to stay VFR. VFR looks to be a good bet Wednesday night into Thursday w/high pres briefly building into the region. The caveat to this will be for KBHB as some of the guidance hints at some IFR/MVFR early Wednesday evening. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SCA will continue today for wind gusts up to 25 kt and seas up to 7 ft. Winds should diminish tonight and seas drop back to around 5 ft. Dense fog will likely continue to limit visibilities over the waters today. SHORT TERM: A sw swell looks like it will be in place w/seas staying up around 6 ft through at least Wed afternoon and then conditions look to subside w/offshore winds taking over. Wind speeds of 10-15 kts will let up Wed night into Thu at around 10 kts. Conditions are forecast to deteriorate again by Friday afternoon into Friday night as low pres apchs from the w. Winds are forecast to pick up to 15-20 kts w/seas building to 6 ft. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ001>006- 010-011-015-031-032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Bloomer/Hewitt Marine...Bloomer/Hewitt

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