Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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918 FXUS61 KCAR 262145 AAA AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Caribou ME Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME 545 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move slowly away from the region tonight with weak high pressure moving overnight and into tomorrow. Low pressure will move out of southern New England toward the area tomorrow night with precipitation developing from south to north. Snow will be possible tomorrow night and into Friday over higher elevations with several inches possible over mountain peaks. Precipitation moves out briefly Friday night and Saturday before another system moves through late Saturday bringing another chance for precipitation. High pressure then builds over the region for Monday and into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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6 PM update... Scattered showers are beginning to dissipate now as diurnal heating is lost. Showers may briefly change over to snow or a rain/snow mix as they continue to decrease over the next couple of hours with low pressure moving east. Not expecting anything more than a trace or a dusting out of any of these cells. Temperatures should drop off overnight into the 20s and 30s with a dry slot moving into the area towards morning. Hourly parameters were adjusted for this thinking. Previous discussion... Scattered showers will begin to diminish this evening as we move away from diurnal heating. Expect cloud cover to diminish as the evening progresses also as temperatures fall into the 20s and 30s at most locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As low pressure pulls off to the east of the region high pressure will begin to nose southward from Canada. The result should be decreasing clouds tomorrow and even some breaks of sun by afternoon at most locations. Even still...expect temperatures to remain in the 40s at most locations. Look for increasing clouds in the late afternoon though as low pressure over the Great Lakes region begins to move eastward. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure centered over lake Ontario Thursday afternoon will begin its trek eastward Thursday evening. As the low deepens over the Tug Hill plateau it will also begin to slow down a bit...perhaps even a little more than the models suggest. By 06z Friday though we should see the precipitation shield ahead of the system well into Maine and on the doorstep of the CWA. It is around this same time that we begin to see a secondary low pressure system developing over Rhode Island. By 12z Friday we should see an energy transfer from the Great Lakes low to the southern New England low with the result being a very strong singular low centered over southern New Hampshire. The precipitation by this time should be as far north as Millinocket. As the low continue to deepen and move into the Gulf of Maine there should be some significant precipitation falling over a good portion of Maine. Temperatures over the mountains look like they could remain cold enough for significant snowfall over the highest elevations. The system moves offshore Saturday night with some weak induced ridging Saturday morning before another system tracking across southern Canada begins to affect the area. By late Saturday afternoon precipitation will once again cover the region and is expected to continue overnight before high pressure begins to build in for Sunday night through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect MVFR cigs this afternoon and evening with VFR conditions tomorrow. MVFR cigs return tomorrow night with IFR/LIFR cigs and vsbys becoming widespread by Friday morning. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions improve late Friday night and into Saturday but will likely return as another system approaches Saturday night and into Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No flags expected. SHORT TERM: Updated to include Penobscot Bay in the Gale Watch. Will continue the Gale Watch for late Thursday night through Friday. Subsequent shifts may have to evaluate whether that will be sufficient as winds could approach Storm force. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Hanes/Pohl is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.