Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201015 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 615 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in Canada will slowly build into the area through the weekend. The next weather system will bring rain to the area Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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610 AM Update... Visible imagery shows a band of cloud dropping down from eastern Quebec province into the St John Valley and extreme northeast Maine at this hour. High pressure will continue to build from the northwest today with mainly sunny skies and gusty north winds. Have increased cloud cover across far northeast Maine early this morning, otherwise no other changes to going forecast. previous discussion Canadian high pressure will build toward the region today. Expect plenty of sunshine along with gusty north winds. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 50s north and lower 60s central and down east, which is a bit below normal for this time of year. High pressure will build across the region tonight. The combination of light winds and clear skies will set the stage for good radiational cooling conditions. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s by early Sunday morning in the normally colder sheltered valley locations of northern Maine. Thus, a frost advisory has been issued for this region late tonight where areas of frost are expected. Please note: Since the climatological date of the last spring freeze isn`t until the beginning of June for the north woods, including the Allagash, no advisory has been issued for that area. However, areas of frost are still expected in this area late tonight. Elsewhere, across downeast Maine, low temperatures are generally expected to be in the mid 30s to near 40 degrees with only patchy frost expected, thus no advisories have been issued for those areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... After a chilly frosty early start Sun morn, temps should recover rapidly to near seasonal norms for aftn highs under msly sunny skies and lgt winds. Increasing cldnss is then xpctd for Sun ngt as the sfc hi moves E and whats left of low pres from the midwest begins to apch. Models have really backed off on organized rnfl with this system on Mon, so PoPs due not exceed the chc category with perhaps likely PoPs for SE ptns of the FA Mon ngt before tapering to sct shwrs Tue morn. Subsequently, aft more seasonal lows Sun ngt, fcst hi temps look to be a little warmer across Ern ptns of the Rgn Mon then prior updates followed by seasonal lows Mon ngt. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Longer range models show a considerable spread of tmg and amplitude/magnitude of sfc lows-s/wv trofs from the midwest affecting our FA during the mid to late week...likely a result of uncertainty regarding the trend of how negative NAO will be durg this pd. A blend of these models gives chc PoPs nearly every day of the long range, which for now we label rn shwrs, although it is quite possible one or two of these days could feature heavier rnfl with higher PoPs as we get more certainty apchg closer to real event tm. With this said, it looks like attm Wed could feature the warmest day tm temps, with most models holding off on any organized rnfl till late in the day or durg Wed ngt. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions with gusty north winds up to 25 kt expected toady. Winds will become light north tonight with continued VFR conditions. SHORT TERM: VFR is xpcted across the TAF sites xcpt perhaps intervals of MVFR clgs/vsbys in rn Mon ngt into Tue morn spcly Downeast TAF sites. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Wind/seas should remain below small craft advisory criteria through tonight. SHORT TERM: No highly definable SCA pds are xpctd, with wv hts on Tue ovr our outer waters possibly reaching at or just abv 5 ft, but this may be a high assessment by WW3 guidance given typical hi biases this tm of season. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ002-005-006- 010-011-031-032. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/VJN Marine...Duda/VJN

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