Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 050509 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 109 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM QUEBEC OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER TO REFLECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE WESTERN AND NW AREAS WILL SEE INCREASING SHOWERS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE(20%) FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG SHOWING UP BUT SHALLOW ATTM BUT MAINLY LOCALIZED. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS OK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. MOISTURE ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS. SBCAPES ARE PROGGED TO REACH INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE, ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK SHEAR MEANS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE RUN OF THE MILL. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 80 FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SUN EVE SHOULD BEGIN WITH THE RETREAT OF ANY REMAINING SHWRS OVR WRN PTNS OF OUR FA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF MOVES WELL E OF THE REGION THRU THE ERN MARITIMES. OTHERWISE... CLRG SKIES ARE XPCTD OVR THE FA OVRNGT SUN WITH LGT WINDS AND NEAR SEASONAL LOW TEMPS AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HI PRES ANCHORING OVR THE NRN MID ATLC STATES AND ADJACENT PTNS OF THE ATLC OCEAN ON MON AS A MDTLY STRONG UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVR NRN NEW ENG...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WSW WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND STRONGLY REACHING HIGHS MON AFTN SIG ABV 80 DEG F OVR ALL XCPT IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST PTNS OF THE FA...THE WARMEST SINCE LATE MAY. MON EVE WILL BE FAIR AND SUMMERLIKE WITH RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS AND A LGT BREEZE. TUE WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY...THEN CLDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WSW LATER IN THE DAY AS A LEAD S/WV FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN BEGIN TO APCH...BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING HUMIDITY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AND LATE AFTN SCT SHWRS/ TSTMS TO MSLY THE NW THIRD OF THE FA. THE ARRIVAL TMG OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW WAS BASED ON SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH WE DID NOTE THAT THE 12Z DTMNSTC GFS WAS SLOWER THAN ITS PREV RUNS. HI TEMPS TUE AFTN WILL REMAIN VERY WARM ACROSS THE N AND W WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER OVR DOWNEAST AREAS WITH GRADIENT SSW WINDS ALLOWING MARINE COOLED AIR TO WORK FURTHER INLAND THAN MON AFTN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE... THEREFORE QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...EXCEPT NEAR STRONGER STORMS. A WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY SEE A SHOWER EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -TSRA AND ALSO MVFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU TUE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED OVR OUR WATERS. WVS BEGIN AT 3 TO 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT WITH LEFT OVR SWELL THEN DIMINISH MON AND MON EVE. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SOME TO 10 TO 20 KT AND 2 TO 4 FT RESPECTIVELY BY TUE AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SW WIND...BUT STILL BLO MIN SCA CRITERIA BASED ON LATEST WIND AND WV MODEL GUIDANCE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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