Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271011 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 611 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east of the area tonight as low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes. Low pressure will cross the area Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 6:05 AM: Have added coastal zones to a winter weather advisory as temperatures appear to be slow to warm at surface. Have also adjusted temperature and dew point based on latest observations. Low pressure is currently passing to the west of New England as strong high pressure moves away to the east. This is resulting in over running precipitation spreading across the region. Snow in coastal areas is expected to quickly change to mixed precipitation this morning then rain along the immediate coastline while mixed sleet and freezing rain will continue just inland from the coast. Snow will change to mixed precipitation in western and central areas this afternoon then this evening in the far northeast. Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and GFS for temperature grids. For precipitation type have used the precipitation from thickness tool run on a 50/50 blend of the NAM an GFS and using 33 degrees as the cutoff temperature for mixed/rain. For snowfall amounts will use snow ratio blender run on the NAM using the Cobb Method. Expect a mix of light Freezing rain and sleet tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sfc low currently ovr the Great Lakes wl spread east and be located north of New England by 12z Tue. Expect pcpn to be ongoing at the start of the short term as s/wv ripples acrs the state ahd of ejecting Hudson Bay trof. Locations acrs Downeast wl lkly see drizzle and/or frzg drizzle Tue mrng as moisture rmns bhnd under inversion fm departing sfc low. Mixed pcpn wl be possible north of Downeast ahd of next sfc low. By late mrng, temps look to rise enuf to be all rain north of a Dover-Houlton line with only far reaches of the St. John Vly experiencing mixed pcpn in the aftn. Sfc low and assoc bndry mv thru CWA on Tue night with pops dropping off fm west to east to slgt chc by Wed mrng. All med range guidance agree on low rmng well to the south of Nova Scotia on Wed with only isold-lochc pops expected acrs the nwrn zones in the aftn as H5 trof swings thru the state. Expect maxes on Wed to be similar to Tue with mins Wed night slightly colder than prior nights. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Brief upr lvl ridging wl bring quiet wx to the CWA thru the end of the week. The next question centers arnd pcpn for Saturday with GFS diving upr low well to the south acrs the Mid-Atlantic while EC and CMC bring it thru New England. This, in turn, plays a significant role in where sfc low ultimately mvs with GFS mvg it south of Cape Cod while the others bring it into the Gulf of Maine albeit at different times. Hv gone abv Superblend for Sat with hichc acrs far swrn zones drg the day with confidence not high enuf to go lkly at this point. Temps thru the end of the pd wl lkly be abv normal. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect IFR conditions through tonight. SHORT TERM: IFR expected on Tue in mixed precip across northern terminals and drizzle/low clouds at BGR and BHB. Expect conditions to improve to MVFR at all terminals Wed morning. High pressure will be building into area Thur afternoon with VFR through Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam12 and GFS for sustained wind speeds. For Waves: The primary wave system is currently long period southerly swell (1-2 feet/8 seconds). Expect southeasterly wind wave to build this morning (4-5 feet/5 seconds by noon) as low pressure passes to the west of New England. East southeasterly wind wave will continue to build this afternoon into the evening reaching a maximum of 8-9 feet/7-8 seconds by mid to late evening. Seas will begin to subside late tonight as low pressure develops in the Gulf of Maine weakening the pressure gradient. Have used the Near Shore Prediction System for wave heights as most of fetch area will be confined to the NWPS Domain and boundary conditions from the WWIII look reasonable. Will keep timing of SCA as is. SHORT TERM: Cannot rule out SCA levels persisting into early Tue morning but after this time seas and winds will remain below SCA criteria until Wed evening. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050>052.
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