Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 250148 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 948 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build north of the area through Thursday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest Thursday afternoon and track across the Gulf of Maine on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 930 PM update...No real changes to the forecast, tweaked cloud cover down based on current satellite trends. Nice night. 630 PM update...No significant changes were needed with this update. Seeing partly to mostly cloudy skies across much of our forecast area at this hour, along with a few light sprinkles over some of the higher terrain of the North Woods. Overall the forecast has this covered, so have only made tweaks to temps, winds, sky, and PoPs to match current trends. Previous discussion...High pressure will slowly build in from the northeast this evening and will bring partial clearing. The high will move away later tonight and at the same time low pressure will approach from the southwest. This will cause clouds to thicken again by Thursday Morning and continue to thicken during the day. Expect showers to spread into the southwestern corner of the region by late in the Afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The models are in good agreement through the period. An occluded frontal system with a low over southern PA, with the front wrapped around the low across central Maine to a triple point in the northern Gulf of Maine will be the primary weather producer through the period. The GFS and GEM suggest a secondary low over Cape Cod. By Friday morning the parent low moves to Cape Cod, the secondary low moves east to southwest Nova Scotia. Friday evening the parent low track east along the Downeast coast, to southwest Nova Scotia. Saturday morning the occlusion clears the area and higher pressure build in through the end of the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used GFS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak high pressure ridge will be in place over the area at the start of the period. A low northwest of Lake Superior and its associated front will be the next weather system to affect our area. Sunday morning the cold front associated with the low extends from southern James Bay through Lake Huron. The warm front extends southeast from James Bay into New Brunswick. Sunday evening all three models are indicating a second low forming along the coast Delmarva/ NJ. Monday morning the low along the coast moves north to Cape Cod bring warm frontal type weather into southern Maine. Monday evening the models shows these two system combining into one over Maine. The coastal low in the northern Gulf of Maine south of Bar Harbor. The cold front extending south along the US Coast. The parent low now stationary southwest of James Bay, with a co-located upper level Low height center. Tuesday morning the GFS and GEM move the low from the Gulf of Maine to northeast New Brunswick, northern Maine will remain in wrap around precipitation, southern Maine will clear out as the cold front moves through. Wrap around showers will persist across northern Maine through the end of the period, as the slowly filling upper low over Canada drifts southeast central Quebec. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models, however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions tonight into Thursday afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions expected in KBGR and KBHB by late afternoon. SHORT TERM: LMVFR to IFR conditions at all sites from the start of the period to Saturday morning. Clearing will begin at FVE and CAR early Saturday morning as a low moves east into Nova Scotia. Clearing will spreading to PQI and HUL before sunrise. VFR conditions will further spread to BGR and BHB shortly after sunrise Saturday. VFR conditions will persist at all sites through Sunday morning. FVE and CAR will be MVFR in scattered showers Sunday. MVFR will spread to PQI and HUL Sunday afternoon, and to BGR and BHB Sunday night as the next front moves in from the west. A warm front will move into central Maine Monday morning will remain in the area through the end of the period. IFR conditions Monday morning through the end of the period in low ceilings and light rain. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to populate the wind grids and will not make any adjustment to model winds with wind direction out of northeast Thursday. For Waves: With winds remaining below 10 knots into this evening expect primary wave system to be south southeast swell around 3 feet/7 seconds. With northeast wind increasing Thursday expect northeasterly wind wind to become the primary wave system by late in the day. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System to populate wave grids. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are forecasted to be above SCA criteria from Thursday evening to Friday afternoon. Winds will subside below SCA, however seas will remain above 5 ft through most of the day Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides will occur from Thursday night through Memorial day weekend. Current predictions have water levels getting up to right around HAT levels at Bar Harbor and Eastport gauges. New Total Water Level guidance keeps most areas below minor flooding levels, but could have some minor splash over Thursday night. Night shift will have to evaluate the need for a coastal flood statement or not. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Mignone/Dumont Short Term...Norton Long Term...Norton Aviation...Mignone/Dumont/Norton Marine...Mignone/Dumont/Norton Tides/Coastal Flooding...

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