Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 282210 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 610 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS ON MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDY SKIES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 610 PM UPDATE...ALL GOOD THINGS WEATHER-WISE AT SOME POINT COME TO AN END...AND IT WILL BE A BACK TO REALITY MONDAY AFTER A STUNNING FALL WEEKEND THAT PRODUCED NUMEROUS ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. THE SATELLITE SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE GASPE PENINSULA...AND THIS IS NOT A WEAK FRONT BY ANY MEANS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC WERE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH SNOW FLURRIES IN THE AIR. IT IS NOT GOING TO GET THAT COLD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TOMORROW...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY IN THE 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE MANY WILL FIND IT A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM. THE ONGOING FORECAST DEPICTS THIS CHANGE NICELY AND THE ONLY UPDATE WAS TO INCORPORATE THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TO MAKE SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE DIURNAL TRENDS THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LVL HI THAT BROUGHT UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON WILL BE FLATTENED OVRNGT BY AN UPPER LVL JET STREAK-S/WV MOVG ESE FROM CNTRL CAN TOWARD THE NRN MARITIMES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SHARP NEARLY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING LATE TNGT ACROSS THE FAR N... REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST BY MIDDAY MON. TEMPS TDY ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL QB BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FELL MOST OF THE DAY WHILE OUR REGION WAS ROASTING WITH RECORD WARMTH...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY BE THE SCENARIO FOR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ON MON AS MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CLDNSS OFFSETS THE NORMAL DIURNAL HTG CURVE FOR THIS TM OF SEASON WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S FROM DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA MAY SEE SOME RISE TO TEMPS INTO THE 60S DURING THE MORN HRS...ONLY TO SEE THEM LVL OFF BY MIDDAY AND ALSO BEGIN TO FALL IN THE AFTN. WEAK FRONTAL CNVRG AND SHALLOW OVRRNG MAY RESULT IN SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT AND ERLY MON MORN ALG AND MSLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA DURING THE DAY MON...WITH MSLY VERY LGT QPF AMOUNTS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SWUNG THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH MORE OF A OVERRUNNING PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RAINY AND DRIZZLY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS LOW STRATUS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR TUESDAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND EAST. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL REDUCE FROM EAST TO WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT UP TO THIS POINT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. DUE TO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. MOVING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE. DRYER AIR INDICATED BY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING IN THE NORTH AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE FA. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES KEEP THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM THIS COULD LEAD TO CLOUDS PERSISTING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND DOWNEAST ME A BIT LONGER. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT NEAR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS FAR SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHUNTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER DEEP TROUGH TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ON EXACTLY HOW STRONG THIS LOW WILL BECOME; THE 28/12Z GFS DEEPENS IT TO ABOUT 999MB WHILE THE 28/00Z ECMWF HAS A 980 MB LOW. THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD MEAN MORE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL, EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: UNLMTD VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVE WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR BKN-OVC SC/ST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N LATE TNGT BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...WITH NRN MOST TAF SITES POSSIBLY REACHING IFR BY DAYBREAK MON INTO MID MORN. DOWNEAST SITES WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR BY MON AFTN AFT THE COLD FRONT SLIDES S OF THE FA...WHILE NRN TAF SITES PERHAPS RECOVER TO LOW MVFR CLG HTS. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE FA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SITES NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DRYER AIR MOVES IN WITH SURFACE HIGH. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU TNGT...WITH WINDS AND WVS INCREASING MON AFTN BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...BOTH APCHG SCA CRITERIA BY MON EVE. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS IN THE NEAR TERM THIS FCST UPDATE. SHORT TERM: SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 AND GUSTS 25 KTS OUT OF THE ENE/NE. SEAS DO EVENTUALLY APPROACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS DO SUBSIDE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION. && .CLIMATE...A NEWS STORY WAS POSTED ON OUR WEB PAGE CONCERNING THE NUMEROUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...MANY OF WHICH WERE ALL- TIME WARM TEMPS FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. PLEASE CHECK IT OUT ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT: WWW.WEATHER/GOV && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/VJN SHORT TERM...JORDAN LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...CB/VJN/JORDAN MARINE...CB/VJN/JORDAN CLIMATE...VJN/CB

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