Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 030727 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 227 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A FAST MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. OVER-RUNNING SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SNOW COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN COASTAL AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WILL USE PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. WILL ALSO USE SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THICKNESS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. FOR QPF... POPS AND SKY CONDITIONS WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF. HAVE USED THE GMOS FOR WINDS. HAVE MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS. WILL ISSUE ADVISORY FOR SNOW. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WARM AND WINDY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE 40S DOWNEAST. WEST WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON, AS COOLER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN FORM THE WEST AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX DOWN. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THEY WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY. A SMALL CLIPPER LOW MAY THEN BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. IN GENERAL, NO MAJOR STORMS ARE IN SIGHT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST AND WEAK, FAST MOVING LOWS FOLLOWED BY LARGE HIGHS DOMINATE THE PATTERN. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THEN IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING AS SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR WEDNESDAY. VERY GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN TURBULANCE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR OR IFR ON SATURDAY IN LOWER CLOUDS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM EARLY TODAY WILL BE OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE WITH HEIGHTS A FUNCTION OF FETCH DISTANCE FROM SHORE. WIND WAVE WILL SUBSIDE WITH WINDS LATER TODAY. A NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WITH WIND WAVE BUILDING TO 6 TO 10 FEET/8 SECONDS BY MORNING. SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA OR A GALE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY. WINDS MAY DIMINISH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE LIGHTER SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE WATERS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>004. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER

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