Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 231334 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 934 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO REFLECT MOVEMENT OF THE COLD UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AS IT EXITS SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN PORTAGE AND REPRESENTED THE 2ND LATEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT CARIBOU ON RECORD. DUE TO PRECIP WITH THE UPPER LOW...HAVE SCALED BACK THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXCLUDE AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THE WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THESE AREAS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH IN A WELL- MIXED ATMOSPHERE. THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST HIGHS NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A MAJOR WARM-UP EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. 500H HEIGHTS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE RISE NEARLY 200 DAM DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE LOW LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE FROM AROUND +7C AT 12Z SUN TO +15C BY 00Z TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE TO THE LOW 70S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVEN WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ST JOHN VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES...AND WILL BUMP UP THE HIGHS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. THE RIDGE WHICH INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET TO BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOME 120 DAM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOST DAYS FROM INLAND DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE MAY END UP NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS TRACK TO THE NORTH AND MAY TOUGH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE AND WARM. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS SUN MORNING AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND AGAIN TUE INTO WED AS MORE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN EVENING. SEAS MAY BUILD ENOUGH WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW THAT A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED. && .FIRE WEATHER... UPDATE...CANCELLED AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH WFO GYX WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ003-004- 010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/CB MARINE...DUDA/MCW/CB FIRE WEATHER...MCW

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