Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 141103 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 603 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off to our east today. Low pressure will track to our north on Thursday. A cold front will approach Thursday night into Friday and cross the area Friday evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 6:00 AM: Have adjusted the temperature and dew point based on latest observations. No other changes. Low pressure will pass well to the north of the State today. At the same time high pressure over the Atlantic will continue to move away from the region. A cold front will approach from the north tonight an cause clouds to increase in the north late tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Region wl be in fairly zonal flow aloft on Thur with perhaps subtle s/wvs rippling by at times. Sfc low currently in the Prairie Provinces wl head east acrs Canada and wl lkly be just northwest of CWA Thu aftn. This wl draw in warm air aloft leading to low-lvl inversion effectively trapping moisture acrs the area drg the day. Warm advection at the sfc wl compete with mocldy skies but feel that most of the area wl rise abv frzg in the aftn. With saturated low- lvls in the mrng and deep layer moisture holding off until the aftn hrs may need to add in patchy frzg drizzle/drizzle in the mrng hrs but wl evaluate likelihood with later model runs. Warm advection wl continue Thu night with fog lkly to dvlp acrs srn half of area by midnight as wmfnt rmns to the north in the St. Lawrence Vly. Med range guidance displaying a fair amnt of uncertainty with low mvg out of the Ms Rvr Vly late Thur aftn and where it heads Thu night. Models run the gamut fm srn Maine to Nantucket. Given amnt of uncertainty still present wl cap at high chc to low lkly for Fri mrng as extensive moisture present in btwn bndrys drg the ovrngt wl lkly be sufficient enuf to generate some lift to result in convective showers and dz/fzdz at times. Hv also include mention of patchy fog ovr Downeast zones Thur night. Frontal bndry expected to cross area Fri aftn with latest guidance indicating snow squall activity with fropa acrs the north. BTV snow squall parameter > 1 in the aftn with low-lvl CAPES arnd 50 J and low-lvl lapse rates > 8 C/km around 18z-21z per NAM and GFS. Temps wl fall rapidly in wake of fropa. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1030mb sfc high wl be building in following cdfnt passage Fri with dry wx expected thru the day Sat. By 00z Sun high shifts into New Brunswick with return flow kicking in acrs the area Sat evng. Models continue to struggle with system heading out of the Srn Plains on Saturday. All guidance is now indicating sfc low somewhere in the wrn Atlantic by 12z Sun in the vicinity of Cape Cod but still struggling on where low wl be located by this time. Latest GFS is closest to Cape Cod with CMC approx 100 miles to the southeast and EC ~400 miles southeast. Wl keep pops at lochc for Sat night and Sun as ensemble members hv quite a spread btwn sfc low position Sun morning. Temps wl be just slightly abv seasonal norms but still expecting light snow acrs the area except possibly along the immediate coast Sun aftn depending on ultimate track of low. Considerable discrepancies in model guidance in wake of sfc low on Sunday with either hipres for Mon or stationary bndry draped acrs srn Canada leading to isold sn/ra showers. Potential exists for a wet pd into the middle part of the week as an upr lvl trof digs acrs the intermountain west with abv normal temps expected. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions today and tonight. SHORT TERM: Conditions lower Thu morning mainly across the north in low stratus ahead of surface front. Moisture gets trapped under inversion leading to MVFR cigs across the north Thur night and MVFR/IFR vsbys and cigs over southern terminals. May see brief improvement over southern terminals Fri morning with restrictions still possible across the north. Front moves through in the afternoon with brief IFR vsbys in -shsn across the north. Northwest winds will gust during the afternoon at all sites as fropa occurs. VFR returns Fri night. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM for sustained wind speed today and tonight . For Waves: A southerly fetch will develop across the Gulf of Maine this morning and persist into the afternoon. Wind speed across the fetch will diminish late in the afternoon. Expect waves to build to 7 feet/6 seconds by late this afternoon then begin to subside as winds diminish. Waves will subside quickly tonight as both fetch length and duration are limited. Timing on the SCA still looks good at this time, so will not make any changes to marine headlines. Will use NWPS to initialize the wave grids. SHORT TERM: SCA conditions will return Friday evening in wake of cold front. May see winds approaching gale force Fri night. Winds and seas drop below SCA levels by Sat afternoon with high pressure building over the waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ052. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar

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