Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 281444 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1044 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE 1000 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 12Z FRI. A REALITY CHECK TODAY AS A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IS NOW IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATOCU ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWNEAST AS SHOWERS CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8C/KM FROM 700-1000 MILLIBARS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND ALOFT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE THE BIG STORY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS TODAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH LOW 70S DOWNEAST. THE LAST OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR TO P/CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT. WESTERN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF DECOUPLING. A FEW OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS (NW VALLEYS) MAY DROP INTO THE 30S IF THE SKY BECOMES CLEAR AND THE WIND GOES CALM FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE 40S WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DOWNEAST. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO BE 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD AT 12Z THIS MORNING AND 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THE STORM WILL BE LONG PERIOD SWELL AND HIGH SURF ALONG THE COAST. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT A LONG PERIOD SWELL TO BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. THE SIZE OF THE INCOMING WAVES WILL VARY AND COULD CAUSE ANYONE IN THE SURF ZONE TO GET SWEPT OUT INTO THE OCEAN. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY BRINGING BRIGHT CLEAR SKIES AND A NORTH WIND WHICH WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM AIR FRIDAY EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING THICKENING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AS IT PULLS SOME MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STABLE AIR ON SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PRESSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND TROPICAL MOISTURE RUNNING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND SUNDAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE WEAK AND MOST OF THE RAIN WILL COME FROM TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING SQUEEZED OUT AS A FUNCTION OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY BUT SOME MOISTURE MAY LINGER BRINGING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT FRONT TO APPROACH WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS WILL BE A WEAK FRONT ON TUESDAY. A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS IN STRATOCU AND SHOWERS WITH VFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY AND IFR ACROSS THE NORTH AS MOISTURE MOVES IN AND CEILINGS LOWER. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: UPDATE 1045 EDT: HAVE ADDED ZONE 52 TO SCA. NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INDICATES THAT LONG PERIOD WAVES IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET GOING ALL THE WAY TO SHORE. A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL RUN INTO FRI. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL IS NOW REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PERIOD HAS INCREASED FROM 5 SECONDS LAST EVENING TO 11 SECONDS EARLY THIS MORNING. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. SHORT TERM: SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 6 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BE NEARLY CALM BY FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT IN GUSTS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .CLIMATE... YESTERDAY WAS THE 10TH DAY IN A ROW WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN AT CARIBOU. THIS IS THE LONGEST STRETCH SINCE THERE WERE 9 DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIP BACK IN MARCH. THE LAST TIME THERE WERE 10 OR MORE DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN OR SNOW WAS SEPTEMBER 25TH THROUGH OCTOBER 6TH 2013. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

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