Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 311214 AAA AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 814 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 0800 AM UPDATE: DID A QUICK UPDATE THROUGH 00Z TODAY TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE CWA BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE AS SUB-TROPICAL OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH DOWNEAST MAINE. KEPT REMAINDER OF FORECAST AS IS. 530 AM UPDATE: THE MOST SIG CHG WAS FCST HRLY TEMPS THROUGH THIS AFTN...BASED ON 5 AM OBSVD TEMPS...WHICH AT SOME LCTNS ACROSS THE N WERE COOLER THAN THE PREV FCST LOWS FROM LAST NGT. FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE UPDATED BY INCORPORATING A TREND OF THE LATEST 5 AM OBS INTO AN UPDATED OBSVD LOW TEMP FROM LAST NGT...THEN POSTING THIS LOW AT 6 AM...THEN INTERPOLATING TO 2 PM TEMPS. OTHERWISE...SKY... POP AND 6HRLY FCST QPF STILL LOOKS REASONABLE GOING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE MORN. ORGNL DISC: RADAR IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW AN AREA OF RN/SCT SHWRS AFFECTING MOST OF THE FA. BASED ON LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL UPDATES...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN RNFL LATER THIS MORN...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF OVRRNG RNFL IS XPCTD TO MOVE INTO E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BY AFTN...CONTG INTO ERLY EVE BEFORE SETTLING MSLY ALG AND JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST. SOME LCTNS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA COULD RECEIVE UP TO AND ARND A HLF INCH. TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TDY...WITH DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING MORN HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTN BEHIND THE FRONT. NRN AREAS OF THE FA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME TEMP RISE THIS AFTN WITH PARTIAL CLRG WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...BUT WITH SOME HI/MID CLDNSS XPCTD TO LINGER EVEN ACROSS THE N...THE POTENTIAL OF OVRNGT LOWS DROPPING MUCH BLO 40...AND ASSOCIATED VLY FROST POTENTIAL IS MUCH DIMINISHED. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... FOR MONDAY...THE CLASH BETWEEN A COOL CANADIAN HIGH IN QUEBEC AND LOW PRESSURE IN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CREATE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN A DRY DAY IN NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S VERSUS A COOL AND DAMP DAY FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SET UP WITH A FRONTAL INVERSION AND A COOL NORTHEAST WIND WHILE THE LOW PUMPS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COAST. IN THE DOWN EAST REGION...STEADY OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED MOSTLY IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWARD FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN QUEBEC PHASES WITH THE LOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD NORTH DURING TUESDAY TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHEAST WIND AND FRONTAL INVERSION PERSISTS TO LIMIT HIGHS IN THE 50S. AGAIN...THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WILL BE WARMER WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 60F WHILE DOWN EAST AND THE MOUNTAINS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY WILL BARELY EXCEED 50F. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... EXPECT A COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE DRY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL COMBINE TO PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE SEVENTIES FOR THURSDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER AGAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHERN ZONES LATE. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. THERE HAD BEEN SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WOULD STALL ON SATURDAY AND ADDED CHANCE POPS...BUT THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY AGREE THAT THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH SHWRS...PATCHY FOG AND STEADY RN CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORN...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR XPCTD TO WORK SWRD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND DOWNEAST SITES BY TNGT. SHORT TERM: NORTH OF HUL...IT WILL BE MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST. IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME. SOUTH OF HUL...THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION WILL BE IFR CIGS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WITH WINDS AND SEAS NOW BLO SCA CRITERIA...WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR ONLY THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052...BUT KEPT THE SCA GOING FOR OUTER MZS050-051 TIL 21Z WHERE INITIALLY WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KTS ERLY THIS MORN AND WV HTS CONT AOA 5 FT INTO THE AFTN HRS. EVEN OVR THE OUTER WATERS...THERE SHOULD BE A PD OF NO HDLN WINDS AND SEAS FROM LATE AFTN THRU TNGT. SHORT TERM: MIGHT GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN A CANADIAN HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. FOR NOW...ADJUSTED WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO STABILITY...BUT THE GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS TO CRITERIA OF 25 KTS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050- 051. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN/DUMONT SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...VJN/DUMONT/MCW MARINE...VJN/DUMONT/MCW

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