Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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588 FXUS61 KCAR 202249 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 549 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will build to our north Sunday into Sunday night. Low pressure will approach Monday into Monday night and cross the area on Tuesday. The low will lift to our north Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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545 PM Update: Adjustments were made to xtnd a little more cld cvr into E Cntrl and Interior Downeast areas based on latest Sat imagery. Fcst hrly temps into late eve were raised a few deg with several lctns actually getting their hi temps for the day after dark due to good mixing of the low troposphere just ahead of a cold front. Speaking of the front, its just crossing the Nrn St John vly attm, with little in the way of sn shwrs accompanying this feature attm. Will cont to mention isold sn shwrs for the rest of the eve across the N hlf of the FA, but with llvl drying xpctd late tngt, there is a chc that cldnss may even break to ptly cldy across the N. Fcst hrly temps should fall faster late tngt well behind the cold front, so for now, we held off raising ovrngt lows posted a 7 am Sun. Orgnl Disc: Northern and eastern Maine are in the warm sector this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures have climbed above freezing all the way north to the Saint John Valley with lower 40s in the Greater Bangor Region. The cold front will push into northwest Maine early this evening, and will move south and east to the coast late tonight. Moisture is rather scant with the front, but there will likely be enough moisture and lift for scattered snow showers this evening to the north and west of the Katahdin Region. Colder air pours back into the area tonight as 925H temps of around 0C this afternoon tumble to around -15C in the north by 12z Sunday and to -5 to -7C along the coast. By morning, lows will likely bottom out from 5 to 10 above in the Saint John Valley to the mid 20s in the Greater Bangor Region. Sunday will be a much more seasonable day in the wake of the front with highs ranging from the upper teens in the far north to around the freezing Mark in Bangor along with a decent amount of sunshine.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure to our north combined with low pressure approaching from the southwest will be forming a frontal boundary across our area Sunday night into Monday. A bit of snow may move into western areas along this frontal boundary on Monday. The boundary will begin to life north as a warm front Monday night with snow becoming steadier from west to east. Snow will quickly change over to sleet then rain Downeast Tuesday morning with the changeover pushing north during the course of the morning. Snow will continue into midday across the far north, mixing with sleet and rain during the early afternoon before the dry intrusion aloft quickly surges in tapering precipitation off to a bit of light spotty drizzle or wet snow showers around mid to late afternoon on Tuesday. The duration of snow will likely give around an inch Downeast with amounts increasing to close to 8 inches across the far northwest. By Tuesday afternoon the low will be lifting to our northwest as a weak secondary low along a triple point lifts north across our region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure will continue to our north Tuesday night into Wednesday. Downeast will partially clear. Some moisture wrapping around south of the low combined with an upper level shortwave trough will produce snow showers over the north with another inch possible across the far north Tuesday night. Snow showers over the north and a partly to mostly clear sky Downeast may continue through Thursday as high pressure builds in and pushes colder Arctic air into the region. High pressure should then bring a return of sunshine on Friday with continued cold conditions. The high will slide to our south next weekend as a return flow brings in milder air. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Local MVFR and short periods of IFR at the northern terminals this evening in any scattered snow showers, especially from KCAR north to KFVE. Otherwise, VFR conditions at KBGR and KBHB through Sunday, with VFR at the northern terminals from late this evening through Sunday. There is the outside chance of a brief period or two of MVFR ceilings at KFVE late this evening and overnight. LLWS expected through this evening at the northern Taf sites with a 45 knot jet at 2k ft agl. SHORT TERM: Conditions will be VFR Sunday night, possibly lowering to MVFR in lower clouds Downeast late Sunday night. VFR conditions across the north with MVFR conditions Downeast are expected on Monday. Conditions may drop to MVFR across the north late Monday. Conditions should drop to IFR Monday night then LIFR in low clouds, rain and snow on Tuesday. Conditions might improve to MVFR Downeast late Tuesday but remain IFR across the north. MVFR conditions over the north and VFR conditions Downeast are likely Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory remains in effect until 5 am Sunday morning. The wind will gradually diminish Sunday as the seas subside. It is possible the sca might need to be extended for a few hours, but likely not beyond mid morning Sunday. Given that the current expiration time looks reasonable will not make any changes attm. SHORT TERM: Winds should be below SCA Sunday night into Monday morning, increasing to SCA Monday afternoon through Monday night, then likely a gale on Tuesday as strong low pressure lifts to our west. Seas will likely respond to the strong south winds on Tuesday building up to 16 ft Tuesday afternoon. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/Bloomer Marine...VJN/Bloomer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.