Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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523 FXUS61 KCAR 221618 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1218 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east of the region today. A weak occluded front will cross the region late tonight. Weak high pressure should then return across the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest later Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1215pm update... Increased wind gusts this afternoon and later this evening ahead of the front. Also increased wind gusts Tuesday afternoon with a fairly deep mixed layer after morning low clouds lift. Also adjusted sky cover today...but cloudy skies will continue. Previous discussion... Surface high pressure was cresting across the region early this morning. The high will continue to slide east today with a light southerly return flow developing. Some light rain showers associated with a weakening short wave trof approaching from the west were starting to make it into western Maine early this morning. The 00z KCAR sounding showed very dry air in the low levels. Although couldn`t rule out a few sprinkles from a mid level cloud deck later this morning, we are not expecting much in the way of any measurable precipitation today as the upper ridge remains across the region into this afternoon. The best chance of seeing any measurable rain today will be back toward portions of Piscataquis county and northern Somerset counties. High temperatures today will be warmest across far northern and northeast Maine today, where highs should make it into the mid 60s. Across central and interior downeast highs will only be in the lower 60s. It will even be cooler along the coast where an onshore flow will keep temperatures in the mid 50s. Rain chances will increase this evening as moisture starts to increase in advance of the approaching occluded front from the west. Expect cloudy skies tonight along with the chance for showers, especially across downeast. Lows tonight will only be in the mid to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Models now are advertising more in the way of fair wx with ptly to msly cldy skies Tue thru Wed ngt with weak ridging alf and at the sfc holding ovr the Rgn. This will mean that any initial rnfl originally slated to affect msly Cntrl and Downeast ptns of the Rgn will now remain well S of the entire Rgn. With more in the way of sunshine, we raised fcst hi temps, spcly on Wed with fcst aftn 925 mb temps in the mid teens C supporting hi temps in the lower 70s across all low trrn lctns N of the immediate coast, with coastal lctns xpctd to be cooler with a weak sea breeze. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models cont to show low pres from the Midwest apchg Thu with increasing cldnss and late day shwrs/rn, which will cont to ovrsprd the rest of the Rgn Thu eve. Rn is then xpctd to cont thru Fri before tapering to sct shwrs Fri eve and then ending late. Rnfl amts potentially can be sig, but given how models have been over zealous ovr the last couple of days with rnfl with the prior two systems, we capped max PoPs to the high likely category so as not to lock later fcst shifts into a scenario in the events models waiver this system also. Following the exit of the sfc and upper low E of the Rgn, Sat and Sun looks to be fair. Hi temps will be cooler due to greater cld cvr and potential rnfl Thu and Fri and then cool advcn on Sat, followed by moderation for Sun. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR today with light south winds. VFR will give way to IFR KBGR/KBHB terminals aft 00z in light rain showers and decreasing ceilings. Mainly VFR at the northern terminals tonight with possible MVFR conditions developing in sct showers and lowering ceilings. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Msly VFR conditions xpctd all TAF sites Tue into Thu morn with possible MVFR clg intervals possible at ngt. Conditions then lower to MVFR clgs/vsbys late in the day Thu in rn then lower to IFR Thu ngt, contg thru the day Fri in rn. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain at sub advisory levels through tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No sig definable SCA pds are xpctd thru these ptns of the fcst, with wv hts apchg 5 ft ovr our outer most MZs late in the week and erly weekend as low pres tracks Ewrd thru the Gulf of ME. Went with about 85 to 90 percent of WW3 guidance for fcst wv hts. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda/MCW Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/MCW/VJN Marine...Duda/MCW/VJN

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