Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 172000 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 300 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move east of the region overnight. Low pressure will pass well south of the state on Wednesday followed by an upper level disturbance crossing the region from Quebec on Thursday. High pressure will then rebuild over the region for Friday and the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure to our north will continue to slowly move east toward New Foundland overnight. Meanwhile, low pressure will approach from the west, as a secondary low develops east of the New Jersey coast. With the secondary low passing well to our south and low level dry air in place, any snow will be confined mainly to central and downeast areas late tonight into early Wednesday. Any snow accumulation will be less than an inch overnight. Across northern areas, it will remain dry as low level dry air remains across the region associated with the high to our north. There will be a wide range in temperatures overnight as more in the way of thicker cloud cover across central and down east areas keep temperatures from falling too much, with lows here generally in the mid to upper teens. However, across far northern areas skies will remain mainly clear well into tonight and allow for decent radiational cooling where low temperatures will range from the single digits above zero to single digits below zero. Weak low pressure will continue to move east of the New Jersey coast and out to sea on Wednesday, as any light snow across central and downeast tapers to scattered snow showers by afternoon, with little in the way of accumulation. Across the north, high pressure will continue to ridge across the area from the northeast with dry conditions expected. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the lower 20s north and mid 20s to near 30 downeast. Our focus will then turn to a weak weather system approaching from the northwest later Wednesday night. This system has the potential to bring a period of snow to mainly northern and central areas Wednesday night. There is the potential to bring an inch or two of snow mainly from the Katahdin region north. Lows Wednesday nigh twill range from the mid to upper teens north and upper teens to lower 20s downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Whats left of steady lgt snfl or sn shwrs across spcly Nrn ptns of the region Thu morn will exit the FA by aftn withe max totals potentially reaching 2 to 3 inches across the far N with progressively lesser totals Swrd toward the Downeast coast. Following the exit of this system, hi pres at the sfc and alf will re-build ovr the region Thu ngt thru Fri, briefly interrupted by some cldnss and possible flurries ovr the region late Fri into Fri ngt from a weak and fast movg s/wv from Cntrl QB.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The entire long term looks dry and very mild as hi pres both at the sfc and alf builds ovr QB and Nrn New Eng. This pattern is part of an negative TNH teleconnection pattern durg this tm frame, which will keep fresh arctic air well NW of ern Can and splits the stm track N and S of the region. Uncertainty exits to when exactly this pattern begins to break down, but suffice it to say for now, the next chc of any sig precip will likely hold off to at least nearly mid week.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected tonight through Wednesday for the northern terminals (KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL). VFR can be expected through midnight at KBGR/KBHB. MVFR conditions are then expected late tonight and into Wednesday in any light snow or snow showers. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Thu will begin with IFR or low MVFR clgs/vsbys in sn across the TAF sites durg the morn hrs, improving to VFR clgs Downeast by Thu ngt and to high MVFR clgs Nrn TAF sites. All TAF sites will then be VFR by Fri...contg so thru the weekend.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Wind/seas will gradually increase to small craft advisory levels late tonight and continue through Wednesday. Have cancelled the small craft advisory for the intra-coastal zone and also delayed the onset of the advisory until 4 am. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns xpctd attm for these ptns of the marine fcst attm. Wv hts, which will begin just below min SCA thresholds on Thu, will gradually subside to 1 to 2 ft as sfc hi pres settles ovr the region with wv pds arnd 9 to 10 sec. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ050>051.
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&& $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/VJN Marine...Duda/VJN

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