Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 231031 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 631 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues to dominate the weather until late tonight. Low pressure moves in from the west on Monday and tracks south of the area. High pressure builds in Wednesday before the next front approaches Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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630 am update... Skies are clear north of Downeast and this has allowed vly fog to form in the past hr. Thinking is that it will be brief as temps warm rapidly. Larger area of valley fog can be seen in Quebec fm channel 2 vsby imagery. High cirrus is streaming into wrn parts of CWA, tho is gradually eroding as it heads east which appears to justify mosunny skies tda. Temps as of 09z indicate portions of the North Woods and St. John Valley dipping into the l/m30s. No chgs needed to ongoing fcst with this update. Prev discussion blo... Hipres conts to sit south of James Bay and supply nwrly flow to CWA tonight. Dwpts hv dipped into the mid- 30s in nrn Aroostook with current temps in the 40s. Notoriously colder vlys acrs the north wl lkly see temps dip into the 30s just bfr daybreak under clr skies and decoupled winds. High thin cirrus wl continue to stream acrs srn zones and lkly thicken up in the aftn as moisture streams ahd of H5 trof digging into the central Great Lks. Maxes tda acrs the north likely to be a few degrees warmer than yda while Downeast likely to be cooler. Given wk pressure gradient acrs Downeast, sea breeze looks likely to kick in drg the aftn. Sfc high pressure wl build twd the Canadian Maritimes twd the end of the near term pd.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Rainy conditions are expected this term, especially Downeast. Low pressure will move to our south on Monday, followed by the upper trough on Tuesday. Models have trended downward with QPF amounts for these systems. This is likely due to the amount of dry air that will need to be overcome, particularly in the north where high pressure will have the strongest hold. Expect that much of Aroostook County will remain dry a good part of the day on Monday owing to the high; the bulk of any precipitation will occur Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. Any lingering rain will be more showery in nature thereafter, with a drying trend through the day. Have kept with low chance PoPs across the north during this time frame, along with likely PoPs Downeast and in the greater Bangor area, but QPF has been cut back to match the latest guidance. Daytime highs will remain on the cooler side, generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s, while Monday night will see temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The middle of the week is looking good with high pressure to build across the region. We`ll see a return to summer-like temps as Wednesday tops out around 80 in most spots. The threat for showers and thunderstorms returns on Thursday and Thursday night as a cold front crosses the region. The forecast becomes more uncertain thereafter. The GFS, and to a lesser extent the Canadian, build high pressure right back over New England, with mainly dry weather for Friday and Saturday, except for a few showers Downeast Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is much more extreme, deepening the upper trough and bringing a 995mb low across central New England Friday into Saturday. This would mean a cool, wet, and windy weekend. Have gone with chance PoPs for this time frame owing to the uncertainty, and stayed close to a model blend for all other parameters. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours with high cirrus likely drifting thru srn terminals and potential for few-sct VFR cumulus moving in from the north after 15z this morning. Winds out of the NW from 3-8kts drg the day will become lgt/vrb after 00z with ridge axis building in. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions Monday morning will gradually give way to MVFR in rain at BGR and BHB Monday afternoon and evening. These conditions will persist through a good part of the night, then gradual improvement to VFR after 12z Tue. The other sites are expected to remain VFR through the period. Dry weather will persist 00z Wed to 12z Thu, then MVFR will become more likely as a cold frontal passage brings the threat for showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the period. Have lowered WNA guidance by a foot as it has been running too high as of late. SHORT TERM: No headlines are anticipated into early next week as both winds and waves will remain below Small Craft conditions. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...Farrar/Hastings Marine...Farrar/Hastings is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.