Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 300131 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 931 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 925 PM UPDATE... NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN ADJUSTING FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. TEMPS ARE COOLING OFF PRETTY FAST THIS EVENING, BUT EXPECT THE DOWNWARD TREND TO SLOW DOWN, AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE COAST. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE FILTERED SUNSHINE UNDER INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO REMOVED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. S/SW WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SKIES WILL EITHER BE MCLDY OR BECOMING CLDY SAT NGT ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA...WITH SHWRS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS NW PTNS OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK SUN AS A COLD FRONT FROM QB PROV APCHS FROM THE W. JET STREAK ENERGY HI ALF...LMTD SFC HTG AND PWS OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES LATER DURG THE DAY SUN WILL FACILITATE A BAND OF ORGANIZED SHWRS... WITH FCST SBCAPES APCHG 500 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE HRS SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL OF TSTMS. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS...WE WILL MENTION HVY RNFL ENHANCED WORDING WITH TSTMS. MDTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THE SUN AFTN/ERLY EVE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT WITH LMTD CAPES SHOWN ATTM...WE BELIEVE IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR TSTMS TO BECOME DYNAMICALLY ORGANIZED FOR WIND/HAIL ENHANCED WORDING ATTM...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. A MORE DEFINABLE MID LVL S/WV-SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS OVR MSLY DOWNEAST AREAS SUN NGT AS BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK OVR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE SUN NGT. WITH BOTH AREAS OF ENHANCED RNFL SUN INTO SUN NGT...MOST OF THE FA WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RNFL... WITH LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH CNVCTV RNFL BULLSEYES POSSIBLE. TMG OF SHWRS AND 6HRLY QPFS FROM SUN THRU MON WERE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER 12Z OPNL GFS AND THE OTHER OPNL 12Z MODELS WHICH WERE A LITTLE SLOWER. WITH A BROAD FRONTAL BL STALLING NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE SUN NGT...AND LITTLE COOL/DRY ADVCN BEHIND THIS FRONT...AT LEAST PATCHY FOG CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE FA LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. OTHERWISE REMNANT UPPER TROFFING OVR THE FA WILL BRING PTLY TO MCLDY SKIES MON WITH POSSIBLE SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS MON AFTN SHOWING UP TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVR SW PTNS OF THE FA. OVRNGT TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL BOTH NGTS DUE TO CLD CVR...SW WINDS AND VERY MOIST LLVL AIR. DYTM HI TEMPS WILL BE AT TO PERHAPS A FEW DEG F ABV AVG. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...ITS SURFACE LOW OVER JAMES BAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL...A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY TUE MRNG...THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW AS THE LOW START TO BECOME COLD CORE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE WRN QUEBEC...SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COAST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE. TUE EVNG...THE CONTINUES TO MATURE...THE FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE...A NEW LOW SHOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY WED MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST INTO WRN MAINE. BY WED EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MERIDIONAL THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH THE JET STREAM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPIDLY MOVEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. LATE THUR A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF NRN CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVNG AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT, BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT INTO ANY OF THE TAF FORECASTS. SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...ALL TAF SITES WILL BEGIN VFR... WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLDNSS AND VSBYS WITH ORGANIZED SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WORKING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS BY SUN EVE. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN LOW ST CLDNSS...SHWRS AND PATCHY GOG OVRNGT SUN NGT. AFT MON FOG...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR TO LOW VFR BY MON AFTN WITH SCT SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS BRINGING BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME MON NGT AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON TUE. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TUE NGT WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHWRS WITH VFR RETURNING FOR WED THRU FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME BELOW SCA LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANQUIL ON THE SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY OUT OF THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER. SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR SAT NGT...THEN INCREASING SWRLY WIND FETCH TO 10 TO 20 KT MAY BRING SHORT PD WV HTS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA FOR SUN AND SUN NGT. BOTH WINDS AND WVS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MON TO SIG BLO SCA CRITERIA AND REMAIN SO THRU MID WEEK. VERY MOIST TROP AIR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF MARINE FOG BEGINNING BY SUN AND CONTG THRU MOST OF MON...WITH SUN NGT INTO MON MORN BEING THE FOGGIEST PD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN

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