Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 281326 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 926 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move to the east today. A low in Quebec will drag a warm front across the area tonight, followed by a cold front on Monday. High pressure returns Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 920 AM update...High pressure is slowly shifting east away from Maine this morning, while low pressure is moving into western Quebec. We`re seeing some light returns on radar across northern areas this morning with weak warm advection occurring on the backside of the ridge. A lot of this is probably not yet reaching the ground, but can`t rule out a few showers through the morning hours, mainly over the North Woods and Saint John Valley. However, much of the day will be dry for a good part of our forecast area. The better chance for rain arrives late this afternoon into the evening as a cold front approaches from the west. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 70s, a little cooler than yesterday owing to the cloud cover. Have adjusted pops a bit through this afternoon to match the above thinking, using the HRRR as a guide. Otherwise, only made some minor adjustments to wind and temps to match current trends. Previous discussion...High pressure will crest over the region early this morning then move southeast of New England later today and this evening. A cold front is then expected to approach from the west tonight behind low pressure passing to the north of the state. The cold front will move to the east of the region Monday Morning. Showers and some thunderstorms are expected tonight as the front moves through. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The cold front is fcst to slide ese off the coast w/the upper trof set to move through during the afternoon. First set of showers will move to the e during the morning but more showers are expected in the afternoon as the trof swings through the region. Stayed w/the daycrew`s thinking of keeping 40-50% pops into mid afternoon and then gradually wind things down as the trof swings to the e. Decided to leave out the mention of thunder attm as instability pushes to the e by morning and the mid and upper levels starting drying out by afternoon when peak heating hits.The NAM and GFS do show CAPE of 500-1000 joules across northeast and eastern areas but as just mentioned, the mid/upper levels dry out. Plus mid level lapse rates drop back below 6.0 c/km. Clearing Monday night and cooling down. NW wind will drop off and this will allow for some patchy fog to set up especially for areas that received some rainfall. The NAM and GFS soundings do hint at some patchy fog to develop later Monday night into Tuesday morning. Overnight temps are fcst to drop into the 50s. Tuesday looks to be a pleasant day w/temperatures hitting above normal levels. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Unsettled into the late week w/much cooler temperatures expected. Another frontal system is expected slide into the region Tuesday night and then move to the east on Wednesday. Look for showers to set up overnight across the west and northwest and then push their way eastward on Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS point to CAPE to be on the order of 500-1000 joules w/lis down to -3 across the downeast region, mainly from Calais to Bangor as temperatures are expected to hit the upper 70s to around 80F. Mid level lapse rates are meager at best(5.5c/km). Any storms that can get going will rely on the blyr and llvl lapse rates and best timing will be in the 1-4 pm timeframe. Confidence is low attm and therefore, decided to leave out the mention of tstms. Still some time to assess this further w/the later model runs. Things look to remain unsettled right into late week and turning much cooler as a broad upper trof sets in across northern New England. This will mean showers both Thursday into Friday w/daytime temps in the 60s and low 70s Thursday and low to mid 60s on Friday. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions today then MVFR/IFR Conditions tonight. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR early Monday for the northern terminals improving to VFR by later in the day. VFR for KBGR and KBHB. Patchy fog Monday night into Tuesday morning could lead to brief MVFR especially for the northern terminals. Otherwise, VFR for all terminals into Tuesday night. Possible MVFR for Wednesday, mainly north of KBGR and KBHB as a cold front slides across the region. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM12 for sustained winds. For waves: Current observations from 44027 indicate long period southerly swell (1 foot/9 seconds) is the dominate wave system with surface winds currently under 5 knots. Later today southerly swell will give way to more southeasterly swell 1-2 feet/14-15 seconds) originating from Hurricane Gaston. Wind wave from increasing southerly winds will also build to around 2 feet/5 seconds tonight. SHORT TERM: No headlines anticipated. A sse swell is fcst to set up and build to 4 to 5 ft Monday night right into Wednesday. Winds will increase w/the cold fropa early Monday w/sustained speeds of 10-15 kt. Gusts could hit 20 kts over the outer zones for a brief time. Winds will drop off Monday night into Tuesday as weak high pres slides over the waters. Another front is fcst to move into the waters on Wednesday w/nw winds picking up again to 10-15 kt. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hastings/Mignone Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Hastings/Mignone/Hewitt Marine...Hastings/Mignone/Hewitt is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.