Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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549 FXUS61 KCAR 011200 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 700 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will develop in the Gulf of Maine this morning before moving east into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. A weak surface boundary will cross the state on Friday with northwest flow continuing through the weekend. High pressure will then build in early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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700 am update... Sfc low has dvlpd as expected just off the seacoast of NH. Greatest 3-hr pressure falls are occurring just to the south of Penobscot Bay and expect low wl trek up along the coast thru the day tda. Moderate-heavy pcpn at times is falling this mrng, all snow north of a Dover-Springfield line with rain to the south. Hv issued an SPS for locally heavy snow north of a Millinocket to Danforth line for the morning as snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are expected to result in vry hazardous driving conds. With 12-hr qpf amnts thru 00z of btwn 1.2 and 1.4 inches, cannot rule out snow accums in excess of a foot acrs the St. John Vly. Sfc low wl rapidly deepen this mrng and cannot rule out a gust to 40kts on the immediate coast. Wl pass on to oncoming shift to keep an eye on potential. Prev discussion blo... Precipitation has overspread entire CWA as of 09z. Transition line btwn snow and rain looks to be from about extrm srn Piscataquis Cnty ewd twd Grand Lake. Area webcams showing snow falling in the Milo and Dover-Foxcroft area but expect these area shud start to mix in another hour given the mvmnt seen from KGYX correlation coefficient which has a good handle on the mix line. Hv nudged the transition line slightly further north to account for further north track of sfc low, in which majority of guidance indicates it wl be right along the coast if not slightly inland. This, in turn, has cut down on snowfall amnts acrs srn sxns of winter headlines and hv adjusted the end times of advisory area to end earlier. Overall, still expecting a burst of hvy snow acrs nrn areas btwn about 11z and 17z tda where 1-2 inch per hr amnts are certainly possible. Snowfall accums in this timeframe wl range fm 5-9 inches in northern Aroostook. Still expecting storm totals of 10-14 inches acrs the higher terrain with arnd 10 inches expected elsewhere acrs the nrn part of the county. As pcpn lifts north, expect that moisture wl be lost in the dendrite lyr lvg areas with drizzle and/or freezing drizzle fm late morning into the aftn hrs. Exception looks to be far north where may retain enuf moisture to keep ice crystals in the cloud and hv worded it as snow showers or patchy freezing drizzle. Either way, expect a glaze of ice mainly to the north of a Katahdin-Bridgewater line. NW flow conts bhnd low as it heads east into the Maritimes. This wl result in upslope flow acrs the higher terrain in the northwest.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Snow showers will be possible, mainly in the north, for the end of the week as an upper shortwave pivots across the state. The best chance of snow will come Friday afternoon into the evening as this is when the best forcing moves through. Accumulation will be minor, mainly an inch or less, though locally higher amounts are possible across the higher terrain of the North Woods. We`ll see another weaker shortwave on Saturday which may spit out a few snow showers as well. Friday`s high temperatures will max out in the mid 30s north and the lower to mid 40s south. After early morning lows in the mid and upper 20s, Saturday will see daytime temperatures a good 5 to 10 degrees colder than on Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The weather looks to be quiet for a good part of next week as high pressure builds across New England. This high will usher in a cold airmass; temperatures are expected to be below normal right into the middle of the week. The next shot of precipitation arrives late Wednesday, with just some snow showers over the North Woods. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: All terminals are IFR this morning. Moderate to heavy snow will affect PQI, CAR and FVE through 18z this afternoon. HUL will likely mix with -SN and -PL between 14z and 20z. BGR and BHB will see -RA through 17z before going to -DZ and BR. BGR and BHB will see LLWS through 16z with E winds at 2kft between 40-50kts. SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions are likely at the northern terminals Friday through Saturday. Scattered snow showers will threaten IFR/LIFR, particularly 18z Fri to 06z Sat. BGR and BHB will mainly stay VFR, but occasional MVFR ceilings are possible through Sunday. High pressure will bring prevailing VFR conditions to all sites after 12z Monday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Gale warning continues for the intracoastal waters this morning as wind gusts approach 45 kts. The outer waters will see wind gusts in excess of 50kts for a time this morning, thus a Storm Warning has been issued from 11z to 15z. Will likely need to extend the Gale Warning into the outer waters late this morning as Storm Warning expires. As winds diminish behind the system expect that SCA will be issued this evening into Fri morning. SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions are likely be ongoing Friday morning as low pressure pushes into the Canadian Maritimes. Both winds and seas will subside later in the day as the low pulls away, making way for incoming high pressure. Winds will pick up Saturday afternoon through Sunday, but outside of a few gusts up to 25 kt, small craft conditions are not expected as we head into next week. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for at least part of the day on Friday, but with headlines currently in place, this will have to be handled by later shifts. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ001- 002. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ003>006-010. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MEZ011-031. MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ052. Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...Farrar/Hastings Marine...Farrar/Hastings

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