Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 161048 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 648 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 650 AM UPDATE: SNOW PUSHING STEADILY TO THE EAST PER THE LATEST RADAR. GETTING REPORTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW W/SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. RAIN HAS GONE TO SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION W/BAR HARBOR AND FRANKLIN IN HANCOCK COUNTY REPORTING SNOW NOW. ADJUSTED THE TIMING BY ABOUT AN HOUR TO HOLD ON TO SNOW FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN SECTION THIS MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, SNOW WILL END BUT TURNING WINDY AND COLD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... BIGGEST CHALLENGES WILL BE FLOODING, SNOWFALL AND TEMPERATURES. FIRST THE SNOWFALL: TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH RAIN GOING TO SNOW AND STARTING TO STICK EVEN ON THE ROAD SURFACES. THE LATEST RADAR SHOWED ENHANCED PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRES HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT PER THE 06Z SFC ANALYSIS. THIS LOW IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE PRECIP SHIELD W/DECENT LLVL CONVERGENCE. DECIDED TO BOOST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST A TRACE TO POSSIBLY AN INCH OF SLUSHY SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY BY 12Z(8 AM) AS THE FRONT AND SECOND LOW PULL TO THE EAST. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE SNOW AND SLICK ROADS. SECOND WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES: COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LUCKY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE 35 TO 40 AT BEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK SHARPLY AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DROP OFF WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION. WE TALKING LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH AND WEST AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THIRD: FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DUE TO THE COMBO OF RAIN/SNOWMELT AND ICE BREAKING UP ON THE RIVERS AND JAMMING. REPORTS OF ROADS CLOSED OR HAVING HIGH WATER ON THEM. THE SNOW/ICE AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN SOME BUT LEAD TO ICY/SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON THE ROADS. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW COULD ALLOW A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. COULD THEN HAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING W/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FOR KBGR AND POSSIBLY BAR HARBOR. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GO MVFR BY EARLY MORNING AND THEN VFR LATER IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 1 PM AS COLDER AIR POURING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 10-13 FT BUT WILL START TO SUBSIDE. THINKING ATTM IS THAT WINDS WILL FALL BACK TO SCA LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY UP A BIT LONGER DUE TO A SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE 2ND LOW THAT DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP BELOW SCA BY TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT AS WELL AS ICE MOVEMENT. HAVE COORDINATED W/THE NERFC, AROOSTOOK EMA, AND MAINE STATE POLICE ON FLOODING ISSUES. SOME RIVERS HAVE HIT FLOOD STAGE SUCH AS THE PISCATAQUIS AT DOVER-FOXCROFT AND MATTAWAMKEAG. OTHER RIVERS SUCH AS THE AROOSTOOK HAVE SEEN SPIKES TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BOTH AT MASARDIS(MASM1) AND WASHBURN(WSHM1) BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING OFF AS THE ICE HAS BROKEN UP AND BEGUN TO MOVE. AN ICE JAM STILL EXISTS ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT FORT FAIRFIELD. THE ST. JOHN WAS REPORTED TO BE OPEN WITH ICE FLOWING THROUGH IT W/NO REAL ISSUES ATTM. THE PENOBSCOT RIVER AT WEST ENFIELD(WENM1) IS SLATED TO GO INTO FLOOD LATER TODAY. THEREFORE, THE FLOODING WILL NOT BE TOTALLY DONE YET. MANY ROADS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE WERE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT W/SOME CLOSURES AND ROADS BEING DAMAGED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY W/THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011- 015>017-029>032. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS HYDROLOGY...HEWITT

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