Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 231959 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 359 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will push across the north tonight then stall along the Downeast coast on Monday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest Monday night into Tuesday then slide south of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Sunshine has finally reached the entire CWA, though it is being filtered through high clouds up north. It will remain dry for the afternoon and early evening hours. A cold front currently pushing southeastward across Quebec will approach the northwestern border around 00z/8pm. This front is likely to bring some isolated to scattered showers north of Katahdin that will start off as rain this evening. Any showers lingering after midnight could mix with or change to snow, especially behind the front. Precip amounts will be light for most areas, with minimal snow accumulation mainly over higher elevations. The precip associated with this front is forecast to dissipate over northern Maine by 2 am or 3am, while the surface boundary continues south to the coast by sunrise. Ahead of this front, moist onshore flow under clear skies could allow for some patchy fog to develop after midnight, which would then clear out as the front pushes through. Clouds are likely to clear behind the front, with breezy NW winds and highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure to our north will bring a mostly clear and cold night Monday night with lows ranging from the low 20s north to upper 30s Downeast. Clouds will then increase Tuesday night ahead of low pressure lifting north from the Southeastern states. This low is a large but weak system with deeply stacked low pressure, but no strong cold intrusion for support. The low will weaken as it moves north. Rain will move onto the Downeast coast on Tuesday then reach northern areas Tuesday night. Rain will continue into Wednesday. The rain will push east Wednesday afternoon as some mid level drying lifts into our area ahead of a large frontal system approaching form the Plains. Rain amounts will range from over an inch Downeast to a quarter to a half inch across the north.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Wednesday night will remain mostly cloudy as low clouds linger across the area and warmer air begins to move in aloft. Warmer air will surge north across the area on Thursday. However, with a southerly wind off the water, much of the warm air will likely remain aloft with only moderate warming at the surface. Clouds will give way to come breaks of sunshine Thursday afternoon. Thursday night will be mild as a warm southerly breeze continues ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move through Friday, possibly with some showers. High pressure should then bring sunny and seasonable weather for Saturday. A ridge will be building along the east coast late in the weekend. Moisture topping the ridging and tracking along a frontal boundary will then bring increasing clouds on Sunday with a chance for some rain.
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&& .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR conditions Sun aftn will deteriorate to MVFR and perhaps localized IFR CIGS late Sun eve and overnight for KPQI to KFVE as a front with scattered showers pushes into the area. KHUL may have a period of MVFR CIGs between midnight and sunrise as well. KHUL to KFVE are expected to return to VFR CIGs between 07z and 10z Mon, with VFR conditions expected the rest of Mon. KBGR and KBHB should continue with VFR conditions through this evening. MVFR to IFR vsbys are possible overnight in patchy fog, with fog clearing out between 10z and 12z as the cold front pushes to the coast. VFR conditions then expected for the remainder of Mon. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Monday night into Tuesday. Conditions may lower to MVFR in lower clouds Downeast Tuesday afternoon. Conditions will then lower to IFR from south to north in low clouds, fog and rain Tuesday night and remain IFR on Wednesday. Conditions will likely improve to MVFR Thursday morning as clouds lift, and possibly reach VFR Thursday afternoon.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: SW`ly winds will increase this evening and overnight, with gusts possibly approaching 25kts. Winds will drop off significantly between 3am and noon and may briefly turn offshore as a weakening front pushes off the coast. Gentle onshore breezes return in the afternoon and evening, and seas that briefly reach 3 to 5 ft tonight will drop back to 1 to 3 ft by Mon afternoon. SHORT TERM: A SCA will be needed Tuesday night into Wednesday for southerly winds up to 30 kt. Seas may reach 10 to 12 ft by late Wednesday in response to the southerly winds. The wind should diminish Wednesday night into Thursday allowing seas to subside.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Kredensor Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Kredensor/Bloomer Marine...Kredensor/Bloomer

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