Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 311000 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 600 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 600 AM UPDATE: CHGS THIS UPDATE INCLUDE INCREASING THE CVRG OF FOG TO AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND XTNDG THE TM TIL 12Z. OTHERWISE... TEMP TRENDS FROM LATEST 5-6 AM OBS WERE USED TO MODIFY THE FCST OF HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORN TO FCST HI TEMPS THIS AFTN. ORGNL DISC: PATCHY FOG IS MORE PREVALENT ERLY THIS MORN THAN YSTDY THIS TM... BUT WE XPCT ANY FOG AND LOW CLDNSS TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BY ERLY MORN ACROSS THE FAR N TO AS LATE AS LATE MRNG OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...MOST...IF NOT ALL TSTM ACTIVITY SLATED FOR LATER TDY SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. WITH REGARD TO THE TSTM POTENTIAL FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE...IT LOOKS TO BE CLOSE TO THE SAME AS IT DID YSTDY ATTM... WITH HIGHEST POP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR NW. FCST AFTN TO ERLY EVE ML-SB CAPES OF 500 TO 1000J/KG SUGGEST BEST POTENTIAL OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR NW...WHERE THE BEST UPPER LVL DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF ARE XPCTD. DUE TO LOWER FZG LVLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT...BOTH HAIL AND WIND COULD BE CONCERNS WITH ANY STRONG TSTMS THAT OCCUR DURG THIS TM...WITH A POCKET OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH TYPICAL HVY RN CAN BE XPCTD WITH ANY TSTM LATER THIS AFTN INTO EVE...FORWARD CORFIDI VECTOR SPEEDS OF 45 KT AND BACKWARD CORFIDI VECTOR SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20KT SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF TORRENTIAL RNFL UNLESS TSTM CELLS ARE TRAINING OVR THE SAME REGION. MOST IF NOT ALL SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MDNGT AND COMPLETELY MOVE E OF THE FA. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TNGT FOLLOWING THE STORMS. KEPT CLOSE TO CONSENSUS MODEL/MOS GUIDANCE FOR HI/LOW TEMPS THU/THU NGT...WHICH ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH EASTERN PORTION OF THE US. UNDER THIS REGIME EXPECT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AS DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE FLOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY ARE POSSIBLE. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE PRECIP BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA IS EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING. A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH OF REGION FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE FLOW BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON THE MODELED SOUNDINGS THINKING THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AREA WILL SLIDE NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS MONDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT ON EXTENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND EXACT PLACEMENT. DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE REGION GOING INTO TUESDAY AS WELL WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA. SHOWER CHANCES LESSEN AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 POPS MAINLY SEEN ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: MSLY IFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN FOG AND ST ERLY THIS MORN ...SPCLY ERLY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. BRIEF MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE XPCTD WITH ANY LATE AFTN TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE. OTHERWISE THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH PATCHY FOG LATE TNGT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING SITES DOWN TO MVFR PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. THESE VARIABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THRU TDY AND TNGT. BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS...WENT ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE THRU THU NGT. AREAS OF MARINE FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER TDY. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT SW FLOW. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...JORDAN LONG TERM...JORDAN AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN MARINE...VJN/JORDAN

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