Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 150224 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1024 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will stall across the area tonight. This front will move back to the north across the region as a warm front Sunday. A strong cold front will move across the area Sunday night. High pressure will build across the region from the west behind the front for early nest week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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1025 pm update... Front conts to struggle south and wl lkly not make it much further south than the Crown bfr lifting back north in the mrng. Fog is dvlpng acrs far swrn Maine where skies are clear and dwpt depressions are low. Latest hires models cont to show questionable dvlpmnt for coastal areas tonight and wl stay the course with just patchy fog mentioned. Prev discussion blo... A weak backdoor cold front is slowly crossing Swrd into our Rgn from Ern QB. This front will likely only get as far S as Downeast areas late tngt before lifting Nwrd by Sun morn. The ovrrng pattern that sets up very late tngt into Sun morn will provide stratiform rnfl to Cntrl and spcly Nrn ptns of the FA as low pres from the upper great lks moves into the St Lawrence vly of QB. Any rn/shwrs should msly end across Downeast and Cntrl ptns of the FA Sun aftn with steady rnfl tapering to sct shwrs across the N as the sfc low approaches the St John vly by erly Sun eve. Winds will become an issue by Sun aftn as both the sfc pres grad and winds alf sig increase. With only weak to mdt llvl lapse rates, however, the best gust potential will be ovr hi trrn aoa 1250 ft msl rather than where the vast majority of people reside. So for now, we keep max wind gusts ovr lower trrn lctns to 35 mph by late Sun aftn and have held off on any wind adv, but we will cont to monitor ovr the next couple of synoptic scale model runs in the event a wind adv may still be warranted. Temps tngt and on Sun will be quite mild for this tm of season, with the warmest hi temps xpctd ovr interior SW ptns of the Rgn where there is a chance of some intervals of sunshine Sun aftn.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front will be moving off the coast Monday with clearing conditions expected as high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will crest over the region Tuesday with sun expected. An are of low pressure will pass to the north Tuesday night resulting in possible showers in the north. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strong high pressure will pass to the south of New England Wednesday. Bringing dry conditions on both Wednesday and Thursday. A few showers are possible in the north Thursday night as a weak system pass to the north of the State, otherwise dry conditions are expected over the remainder of the area. High pressure will continue to dominate into Friday with dry conditions. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR expected at all terminals until closer to daybreak when restrictions lower to MVFR and eventually IFR by late morning. Rain will effect northern terminals after 11z. Expect LLWS to impact sites north of HUL after 18z from 200 at 40kts. Southern terminals will likely experience LLWS toward very end of TAF valid time. SHORT TERM: Expect MVFR KFVE, KCAR, and KPQI Sunday Night and Tuesday Night, otherwise VFR conditions into Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas ramp up to SCA conditions Sun aftn reaching just under gale force by erly Sun eve. Even though winds alf are strong enough to support gale force gusts, very stable sfc-200m lapse rates will most likely prevent stronger wind gusts from reaching the sea sfc. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance, blended with NWPS guidance by Sun aftn. SHORT TERM: For winds have used the NAM through Tuesday then transition to the Super Blend Winds. For Waves: Expect strong southerly fetch across the Gulf of Maine Sunday Night into Monday. Wave systems from this fetch will subside Tuesday as wind diminish and become more off-shore. Northwest wind wave will become the dominate wave system by late Tuesday and persist into Wednesday. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) through Tuesday then transition to Wave Watch III blend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/VJN Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Farrar/VJN/Mignone Marine...Farrar/VJN/Mignone is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.