Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 172310 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 610 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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6 PM UPDATE...SNOW AMOUNTS WERE RAISED IN SOUTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK, CENTRAL PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS GONE OVER THE MOSTLY SNOW, AND FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AN AXES OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL DRAW COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION DOWNEAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY SNOW WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...3 TO 5 INCHES INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD BE AFFECTED BY HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TRACE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ANY ONGOING SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL TAPERING OFF TO SCTD SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD AS A POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ERN CANADA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DISAGREE AS TO HOW MUCH MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST TRYING TO KEEP US DRY. BETTER CHANCE AT A POTENT SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). IT APPEARS THIS COULD BE A WARM SYSTEM WITH A MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR MANY AREAS. THIS IS STILL WAY OUT THERE, HOWEVER, SO OF COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DOWNEAST. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS KBHB AND KBGR BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN MAINE, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF IFR/MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCTR OUT ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG TONIGHT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: SHORT TERM: ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS OUR MARINE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006- 010-011-031-032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS SHORT TERM...BERDES LONG TERM...BERDES AVIATION...NORCROSS/BERDES MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES

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