Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCAR 181610
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1110 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017
Low pressure passes well south of the region today. An upper level
disturbance will cross the area tonight into Thursday morning.
High pressure builds into the region Friday, and is expected to
remain across the area into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:00 AM Update...Snow has tapered off to light snow showers
Downeast, so backed off on pops Downeast. Today will remain mostly
cloudy across most of the region except partly cloudy over the
north around midday. Otherwise, no major changes this hour.
Sfc low dvlpng off the NY Bight late tonight. 1028mb sfc high
holding tight acrs New Brunswick with ridge axis keeping snow just
to south and west of CWA. Extremely tight gradient expected this
mrng btwn snow and no snow. Hv backed off slightly on pops thru
12z acrs far swrn Penobscot Cnty and wrn Hancock Cnty based on
timing and orientation of sfc winds. If winds cud turn southeast
enuf this mrng, it may result in orographic lift in the
aforementioned areas but wl lkly keep erly flow in until moisture
dissipates. May see arnd 1 inch this mrng along a Moosehead lake
to Brooklin line with amnts near 1/2 inch for the Bangor region
but given the extremely sharp gradient not expecting much more
than a dusting to the east.
Expecting max temps up arnd normal values tda with highs arnd 20F
acrs the north and u20s/nr30s in Downeast. Temps in the north
ovrngt wl not fall much with clds bcmg trapped under inversion.
For tonight, wk wv wl spread snow into the area fm Canada aft
midnight. Wl lkly see categorical pops in the St. John Vly and
northern Aroostook with progressive shot of snow and a quick 1-3
inches ovrngt, mainly north of a Moosehead to Houlton line.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mid/upper level trough shifts east of the region Thu with a
ridge both sfc and aloft to build over the area though Fri. Areas
of light snow will wind down by Thu afternoon across the Crown as
the upper trough axis shifts east. Any add`l snow accumulation
will be an inch or less, and mainly confined to the northeast
zones. Generally dry and p/cloudy for Thu night into Fri.
Temperatures will be above average with highs both days
approaching the freezing mark across northern areas and 35 to 40
degrees across the Downeast Region.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A dry and mild period with high confidence that there will not be
any significant precipitation. High pres builds across the area
both sfc and aloft with troughs across the David Strait and across
the western CONUS. An upper low that ejects from the 4-corners
region Sat and into the southeast U.S. by Mon. Temperatures will
average 10 to 15 degrees above average for late January. It now
appears the ridge will hold into Tue, and may break down toward
midweek bringing the next chance of precipitation to the region,
which may be in the form of rain across much of the CWA. The best
chance of any snow will be across northern areas. Overall, the
pattern looks to favor above average temperatures through next
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR expected into the evening across northern
terminals. MVFR cigs wl move in after 03z tonight as IFR -sn drops
in fm the north after 06z and expect this to continue thru end of
TAF valid time. BGR and BHB can expect MVFR cigs this morning
before becoming VFR as low cigs scatter out. MVFR restrictions
then move back in this evening with BGR likely seeing IFR after
08z in -sn.
SHORT TERM: Thu morning will likely start with IFR/MVFR at the
northern taf sites in -sn, with improvement to MVFR/VFR by
afternoon. Occasional MVFR Thu morning at the Down East terminals
will improve to VFR by midday. VFR expected Fri through the
weekend, although occasional MVFR may continue at the northern Taf
sites, especially from KCAR north into Thu night.
NEAR TERM: SCA ongoing, mainly for wind gusts early, with seas
coming up in serly swell by mid-morning. Expect winds wl diminish
after 18z tho seas wl likely be marginal SCA after 00z then decreasing
thru 12z Thur.
SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels Thu through Sun as high pressure builds
over the waters. The wind will likely increase and the seas build
by Tue of next week ahead of the next approaching weather system.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ050-