Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180219 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1019 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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UPDATE... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH LESSER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST EARLY THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S NORTH...TO THE LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... VERY CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR IS THAT MANY AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHEST EAST YOU GO, WILL NOT BE DECOUPLING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. STILL, EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL HOIST A FREEZE WATCH FOR CENTRAL AREAS THAT HAVE NOT HAD A HARD FREEZE YET. COOL, SUNNY DAY FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE BEGIN TO GET INTO A WARMER ONSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY AND OVER THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 70S FOR MANY AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN COMES COMES WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH DOESN`T LOOK A PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT. SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MODELS LINGER PRECIP INTO MONDAY WHILE OTHERS DRY IT OUT, BUT ALL MODELS HAVE US DRY BY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATER THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT LIKELY AREAS OF MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO MOISTER ONSHORE FLOW. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS...OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELLS. SHORT TERM: AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SEAS WILL BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR BUT PROBABLY JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-015-031-032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/JORDAN SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY

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