Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 200346 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1046 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COULD SUPPORT INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN. A MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WOULD HELP LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS OVERNIGHT...WHILE LESSER CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD ALLOW FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. GENERALLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH...TO 10 TO 15 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS...FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND MORE BREAKS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER. NOTICED THAT THERE WERE LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE MOS GUIDANCE. THE MAV GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS IN LOOKED WAY TOO COLD FOR TOMORROW WITH A HIGH OF ONLY 12F AT CARIBOU. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SATURDAY EVENING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY EVENING. FOR POPS AND QPF FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. WILL KEEP HIGHER CLOUD PERCENTAGES THAN MODEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPERBLEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DYNAMICS ARE TOO FAR TO THE WEST FOR SECONDARY LOW TO TAKE OVER CIRCULATION...SO WAVE ALONG OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS DAY. SO WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH CHRISTMAS EVE TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AT NIGHT. ALSO OF CONCERN IS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS 24TH INTO 25TH. EXPECT COLDER AIR MASS TO RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. WILL INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS WITH SUPERBLEND. SUPERBLEND APPEARS TO COLD FOR STORM EVENT 24TH/25TH SO WILL USE THE CONSENSUS RAW FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER IS STILL UNCERTAIN. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS...FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 FOOT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD INCOMING SWELL THEN BUILD TO AROUND 2 FEET TUESDAY. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEAST FETCH TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY FROM MAINE COAST SOUTHEASTWARD. WILL USE THE WNA/4 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A LONG SOUTHEAST FETCH WILL DEVELOP BY 24TH/0000Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT ON THE 25TH. THIS WILL RESULT IN LARGE/LONG PERIOD WAVES APPROACHING THE COAST. CURRENT WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST LARGES WAVES 25TH/1300Z. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR APPROXIMATELY 25TH/0530Z... (11.76 FT MLLW) AND 25TH/1800Z...(12.73 FT MLLW). STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF LARGEST WAVES AT THIS TIME FRAME...HOWEVER COINCIDENCE OF LARGEST WAVES WITH HIGH TIDE COULD RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE OVERTOPPING. POSSIBLE STORM SURGE WILL RAISE THESE LEVELS OF ASTRONOMICAL TIDE RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. && .CLIMATE... A TOTAL OF 55 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR THIS WINTER AT CARIBOU...WHICH IS 30.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. SEASON TO DATE IT RANKS AS THE 3RD SNOWIEST START TO THE WINTER BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIGNONE CLIMATE...CB

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