Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 270307 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1007 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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UPDATE... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. AN AREA OF MOSTLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. GENERALLY EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO AROUND ZERO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AT 00Z SAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SUN AFTERNOON. THE CWA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGH WITH W/SW FLOW. FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STRONG INVERSIONS FORMING...ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS. ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. HIGHS SAT WILL RECOVER WITH A FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND INTO THE MID 20S ALONG THE COAST. A MILDER AIR MASS AND INCREASED W/SW FLOW MEANS SAT NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST VALLEYS. REALLY LIKED THE MID CREWS LOW TEMPS AND MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUN WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT WITH A SFC LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND PUSH INTO THE MARITIMES MON MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO DOWN EAST MAINE WITH AMOUNTS TO DROP OFF TO THE NORTH. WHETHER THERE IS LITTLE/OR NO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. IT IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT SO AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BE A WARNING LEVEL EVENT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE AIR MASS IS NOT ALL THAT COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND POSITION DETAILS. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LOWER TO IFR IN SNOW AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL REACH THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT AT THIS TIME WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW RAPIDLY A LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT PULLS WAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/BLOOMER SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB MARINE...NORCROSS/CB

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