Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 270113 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 913 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 913 PM UPDATE...THE CWA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COLD UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. CLOUDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE COLD FOR LATE APRIL WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHWEST MAINE MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. MAINLY JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE 9 PM OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL ZONES INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SNOW WILL CHANGE BACK TO OCCASIONAL RAIN AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES LIGHTER EARLY THIS EVENING....EVENTUALLY ENDING. WILL BASE PRECIPITATION TYPE ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE AS AIR ALOFT IS VERY COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC AND A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKERS FOR MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MAINE BRINGING THE CHANGE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WINDGUST BY FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE PERSISTENT DEEP UPPER LOW WHICH PLAGUED NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE TROUGHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS SOME MOISTURE/LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...HOWEVER THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP PROBABILITIES BELOW MENTION IN DAYS 6 AND 7 OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY AT KFVE WED. A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP FROM KPQI NORTH TO KFVE WED. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL BRING TROUGHS THROUGH NRN MAINE BRINGING WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWER ACROSS FVE...CAR...AND PQI. DURING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR DURING SN SHWRS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR WAVES: CURRENTLY PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS FROM EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND WAVE WITH A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL GROUP. EXPECT WIND WAVE TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER IN DAY WEDNESDAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW. SHORT TERM: AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WINDS WILL BE NEAR SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE A SCA. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/MIGNONE SHORT TERM...NORTON LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...CB/MIGNONE/NORTON MARINE...CB/MIGNONE/NORTON

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