Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 261632
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1232 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016
High pressure will cross the region today with plenty of sunshine
and near seasonal temperatures. An occluded front will cross the
region Tuesday. High pressure will build across the region from
Labrador by mid week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Update...Reduced lows for tonight in northern Aroostook. Some
patchy frost is possible again towards northeastern Aroostook
County before clouds thicken quickly near daybreak. Reduced QPF
in northern zones for tomorrow. Most of the QPF will be towards
the coast with a weak low traveling along the coast by afternoon.
Dropped highs for tomorrow...especially in the north 1/3 of the
forecast area where the thickening clouds and a chilly east flow
will limit highs to the lower 50s. Added some patchy fog during
late Tuesday afternoon as the boundary layer saturates...mostly
towards Washington County.
High pressure will continue to build across the region early
today and then move off the New england coast this afternoon.
Expect abundant sunshine across the region today. After a chilly
start this morning, temperatures will climb to near seasonal
levels this afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 50s to near
60 degrees across the north and lower 60s downeast.
After a mainly clear start this evening, clouds will begin
to increase tonight. A few showers are possible by daybreak as a
weak weather system crosses the region from the west. Light
southwest winds and increasing clouds will result in a milder
night than the past few nights. Lows will range from the mid 30s
to near 40 degrees across the north and mid to upper 40s
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper low across the northern Great Lakes will drop slowly
south through the period. An occluded front is expected to lift
across the region Tuesday. The models generally have an area of
rain that weakens as it moves across the area Tuesday, so any
steady rain will likely taper to scattered showers during the
afternoon, especially across the western half of the CWA. In any
event, it does not look like a major rain producer, with QPF on
the order of a quarter inch of less for most areas. The front
does hang up a bit toward the coast, so some steadier light rain
may linger into Tue evening across Washington County, with
isolated to scattered showers continuing into Tue night as some
weak mid level disturbances work across the area. Temperatures
Tuesday will be seasonable for late September with highs in the
mid to upper 50s in far northern Maine to the mid 60s in the
Bangor Region. Clouds will keep temperatures from dropping low
enough for any frost concerns Tue night. Wednesday will remain on
the cloudy side with a few showers as the old occlusion remains
just offshore and a weak upper low remain to the northwest of the
region. Temperatures will again be seasonable.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Uncertainty reigns supreme. An upper low in the Ohio Valley Wed
evening will be the main driver of the weather across northern New
England late this week into the weekend. The ECMWF drops the low in
the Tennessee Valley and then lifts it back into the Ohio Valley
over the weekend. The GFS takes the low into southern
Pennsylvania at the end of the week and weakens it to an open
trough that lifts across New England over the weekend. The
majority of the GFS ensembles and the Canadian are more in line
with the operational GFS. The ECMWF ensembles are more split, but
some members do have a more progressive low. The differences are
huge, as the operational ECMWF would be a dry forecast late in the
week into the weekend, and a more GFS like solution would favor
unsettled weather with bouts of showers right into the weekend. No
major changes were made to the ongoing forecast based on the large
amount of forecast uncertainty.
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR expected through tonight.
SHORT TERM: MVFR with pockets of IFR Tue as an area of rain moves
across the area. Mostly MVFR Tue night, with improvement to VFR
likely Wed. Forecast confidence is very low late in the week into
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels through tonight.
SHORT TERM: The wind and seas will likely remain below small craft
advisory levels through Wed morning. As the pressure gradient
tightens Wednesday with low pressure south of the waters and high
pressure to the north a small craft advisory might be needed for
both wind and seas. Uncertainty increases late in the week as
there are significant model differences, and there is the
potential that a small craft advisory could be needed at some
point late in the week.