Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 210428 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1220 AM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING NORTHERN MAINE ATTM PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP BUT ANOTHER TRAVELING NE ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WAS IN RESPONSE TO AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING FROM LOW PRES OFF THE MAINE COAST. KEPT 20-30% FOR SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BASED ON THIS SETUP. ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS W/DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. FOR MONDAY, SOUTHERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. AS A JET MAX AT 250 MB MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, THIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AREA WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN FAIR AND WARM AS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVR NEW ENG AS EVIDENT BY MOST MODEL FCST 500 MB HTS MON NGT THRU TUE. WITH MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES...HI TEMPS TUE WILL REACH IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL INLAND...LOWER TRRN LCTNS... WITH THE FCST 925 MB THERMAL AXIS POINTING FROM THE WRN ME MTNS INTO NE ME ACCOMPANYING WSW SFC WINDS SUGGESTING THE WARMEST AFTN HI TEMPS OVR THE NE AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. AFT A WARM NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SW BREEZE...WED WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM..BUT WITH A S/WV AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL QB SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE OVR THE NE U.S. BY AFTN...CLDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA DURG THE AFTN...WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS LIKELY OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA DURG THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS. DUE TO THIS CLD CVR...HI TEMPS WED AFTN SHOULD BE A FEW DEG COOLER THEN TUE OVR THE FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BUT AS WARM IF NOT A DEG OR TWO WARMER OVR E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TMG OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR HI TEMPS... SINCE 925 TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FCST TO BE A COUPLE OF DEG C WARMER THAN TUE AFTN...MEANING THAT LCTNS RECEIVING AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF REACHING AFTN HIGHS OF 90 DEG F. REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS...FCST MODEL MID TO LATE MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY MOD SHEAR ALF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WITH A FEW STORMS. A BRIEF SURGE OF PWS IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL OF BRIEF HVY TO TORRENTIAL RNFL FOR SOME STORMS LATER WED AFTN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM AS THERE ARE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS, AS IT DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD SLOW THE FRONT`S PROGRESS, STALLING IT OVER CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFF SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT ONCE THE LOW HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE. AS SUCH, THE FRONT AND ITS PRECIPITATION ARE ABLE TO MOVE OUT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, MUCH OF THE STATE SHOULD BE DRY ALL DAY THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A 40-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY FOR CONSISTENCY AND TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL DIFFERENCES. ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THOUGH, FRIDAY LOOKS DRY, BUT THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES SOUTHERN QUEBEC. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSETTLED, BUT EXACTLY WHEN IS STILL HARD TO SAY FOR CERTAIN. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. SHORT TERM: MSLY VFR XPCTD MON NGT INTO WED...WITH MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CLGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATER WED AFTN THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS MSLY FROM KHUL NWRD. MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN POTENTIAL SHOWERS, THEN VFR TO PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME. SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ARE SLATED FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST ATTM. WVS WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM LATE TUE NGT THRU WED WITH AN INCREASING SSW WIND FETCH...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA BASED ON GOING WITH 75 PERCENT OF LATEST WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH PERCENTAGE HAS DONE RELATIVELY WELL WITH WEAK TO MOD RETURN FLOW SRLY FETCHES. OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL OF MARINE ST/FOG WILL INCREASE...SPCLY LATE TUE NGT THRU WED AS LLVL TROPICAL AIR WITH HIGH NEAR SFC DWPTS BEGINS TO MOVE NWRD OVR ADJACENT PTNS OF THE GULF OF ME. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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