Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251133 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 633 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF MAINE TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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630 AM UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE JUST TO ADJUST TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES, WHICH ARE ALL THE PLACE. BANGOR ROSE FROM 39 TO 54 JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN DROPPED TO 40, AND NOW HAS RISEN BACK UP TO 52! TEMPERATURES ARE VERY SENSITIVE TO WHERE THE WARM WIND ALOFT IS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. STEADIER RAIN IS REDEVELOPING NOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR A RAINY MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING ABRUPTLY AROUND MIDDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 50S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 30S TO 40S ELSEWHERE. BANGOR SOARED TO 54, SETTING A RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY, BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 40 AS THE SOUTHERLY WIND DIED DOWN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE DEGREES MOST PLACES BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE IS A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE RAIN. EXPECT RAIN TO FILL BACK IN BY MID MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN END AROUND MIDDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WIND ADVISORY IS OUT UNTIL 4 PM TODAY NEAR THE COAST AND WILL LET IT RIDE. SO FAR, THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 42 MPH. WITH THE WET SOIL, GUSTS LIKE THIS CAN BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, EXPECT A DRY AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING. DOWNEAST MAY SEE SOME CLEARING, BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST UP NORTH. NEXT CONCERN COMES WITH STRONG WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NORTH. OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 1 AND 2 (NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK) FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WITH THE DECENT LAPSE RATES, EXPECT SOME FRISKY GUSTS TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLTOPS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. COULD ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW TO MOSTLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED. THE GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH LESSER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH HOW RAPIDLY THIS OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. EXPECT A STEADIER SNOW EARLY SUNDAY WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL END SUNDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING IN RAIN, LOW CLOUDS, AND FOG. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, EXPECT DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT WITH VFR FROM ABOUT KPQI SOUTH, AND MVFR CEILINGS KCAR NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MVFR FAR NORTH AND VFR ELSEWHERE. QUITE WINDY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST LATER SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE, BUT STILL THINK GALES ARE LIKELY RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN CONTINUING THIS EVENING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY...
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HEAVY RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ON TOP OF A MELTING SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FURTHER NORTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE. EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS AROUND MIDDAY...THE FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST BECAUSE OF THE GRADUAL RESPONSE OF SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS, AND BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE, AS BUILDING SEAS COMBINED WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED SPLASHOVER AT VULNERABLE SPOTS. NOTHING MAJOR EXPECTED, THOUGH. && .CLIMATE... BANGOR ALREADY SET A RECORD HIGH WITH 54F IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51F...SET IN 2003. AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS 48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF NEAR 47F AT CARIBOU. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011- 015>017-031-032. WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001-002. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS HYDROLOGY...FOISY TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FOISY CLIMATE...FOISY

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