Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 160225 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1025 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move across the area later tonight. High pressure will build across the region from the west Monday into Tuesday...then move south of the region midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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1025 pm update... Cdfnt has made it to within about 50 miles northwest of CWA as of 02z. Thin convective line mvg acrs the northeast this evng has weakened and is breaking up as it enters northern New England. Still expecting high likely-categorical pops in the North Woods but expect that as rain heads twd New Brunswick it wl tend to break up more. LLJ is certainly in place ovr the area per latest RAOB and VWP profiles fm the area. Southerly winds at 45 kts exists arnd 2kft and as cdfnt mvs thru arnd midnight acrs the north, may see gusts appch wind advisory criteria. Impact of wind wl be there regardless of whether it meets local criteria due to leaves remaining on the trees. Hv tried to better capture timing of falling temps ovrngt with temps rising in advance of fropa. No major chgs needed to min temps as they wl lkly occur at 12z at all locations. Prev discussion blo... Shwrs will be isold to sct msly across the N late this aftn into erly eve as the warm sector reaches its max nwrd progress. In fact, temps will cont to rise across most of the Rgn well into the eve as strong llvl thermal advcn conts. Based on sfc obs, we kept a mention of patchy marine fog into the eve, but this should be slowly driven offshore as llvl winds slowly become more wrly component. Speaking of sfc winds, they should cont to increase into the eve as the sfc pres grad and winds alf increase. Wind adv wind gusts are most likely with prefrontal shwrs xpctd later this eve into the ovrngt, and with the immediate passage of the cold front late tngt. The best potential of additional rnfl from shwrs will be across the NW hlf of the Rgn tngt where the best mid and upper lvl dynamics will be and where there may be enough instability alf ahead of the cold front for isold tstms. Shwrs will exit the FA after the passage of the cold front late tngt, followed by a rapid erly morn temp fall. Mon will see little recovery with hi temps with a brisk NW wind with ptly to msly sunny skies Cntrl and Downeast and ptly to msly cldy skies N.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Strong high pressure centered to the southwest of New England will dominate on Tuesday with mostly clear conditions until later in the day when a frontal system will spread clouds into northern areas. Strong high pressure is then expected to build back into the region Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Another cold front will move across the region Thursday resulting in some widely scattered showers in the north. The remainder of the region is expected to remain sunny on Thursday. Both Friday and Saturday will remain under the influence of strong high pressure to the south with dry conditions expected. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Northern terminals will be predominantly MVFR thru the morning hrs. Exception will be FVE at IFR thru 04z tonight, remaining MVFR thru end of TAF valid time. BGR will be MVFR thru 09z then rising to VFR while BHB rises to VFR after 06z. All terminals will see LLWS first 5-8 hours of TAF valid time from SW at 40-45kts. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions Monday Night through Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Will cont with outer MZ gale wrng and inner bay/harbor MZ SCA hdlns. Outer MZs will need to be converted to an SCA erly Mon morn upon the ending of the gale. Otherwise we added areas of fog to our waters this eve based on latest buoy obs, with fog becoming patchy late tngt as sfc winds become wrly component, with all fog dissipating by Mon morn as sfc winds become offshore behind a strong cold front. Kept close to a WW3/NWPS blend for fcst wv hts with the primary wv pds in the 5 to 7 sec range. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM for sustained winds through Wednesday then transition to the Super Blend Winds. For Waves: The primary wave system Tuesday will be longer period southerly swell with a secondary northerly wind wave. Southerly wind wave will then become the primary wave group for Wednesday and Thursday. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System for waves. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for MEZ001>006-010-011- 015>017-029>032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ052. Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/VJN Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Farrar/VJN/Mignone Marine...Farrar/VJN/Mignone is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.