Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 162324 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 724 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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UPDATE: COLD AND DRY HIGH PRES CNTRD OVR THE ERN GRT LAKES ATTM WILL BUILD E OVR THE STATE THRU TNGT AND CREST THE AREA THU AM BEFORE SHIFTING E OF THE AREA BY THU AFTN. VRY COLD AND DRY AIR WILL SETTLE IN TNGT AND THIS SHOULD HELP SLOW DOWN SNOW MELT AND AT LEAST TEMPORARILY RELAX SOME OF THE HYDRO CONCERNS. STILL NUMEROUS RPTS OF SOME ROADS CLOSED BUT THIS NUMBER HAS BEEN DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY W/ THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONT AND WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THE AREAL FLOOD WRNGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NRN AREAS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT TIL LATE EVE. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES WARRANTED... PREV DISC: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/WESTERN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD INTO MAINE TONIGHT. A GUSTY WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOST AREAS TO DECOUPLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY AND COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH COLDER NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH LOW 20S DOWNEAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER NW VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN THE NW VALLEYS. THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND THE THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE. THERE MAYBE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE MORE IN THE WAY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. A M/SUNNY SKY IS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE NW ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH FRI NIGHT. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP LATER IN THE NIGHT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S FOR DOWN EAST AND BANGOR. THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREAS SUNDAY WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW 50S...ALTHOUGH SOME MID 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AGAIN. A SW FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON MONDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN QUEBEC WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR AND A NORTHWEST FLOW. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. A GUSTY SFC WIND WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH SAT...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS SAT. MOSTLY VFR SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS MON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE WIND WILL DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THE SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WAS TRANSITIONED TO A SCA. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE MOSTLY BELOW SCA LEVELS INTO THE WEEKEND. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY...
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UPDATE: THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS HELPED SLOW SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF... IN ADDITION...OUTSIDE OF THE HEADWATERS OF THE AROOSTOOK WHERE AND ICE JAM IS STILL RPTD IN THE OXBOW-MASARDIS AREA...THE AROOSTOOK HAS FLUSHED OUT SO THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY EASED. HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS ARE VERY HIGH AND NUMEROUS ROADS REMAINED WATER COVERED AND CLOSED - THO THIS NUMBER HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ICE JAM FLOODING ALSO STILL REMAINS A CONCERN ON THE ST JOHN... CURRENT AREAL FLOOD WRNGS ARE SET TO EXPIRE LATE THIS EVE AND WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THE NEED TO EXTEND OR ALLOW THESE THESE WRNGS TO EXPIRE... PREV DISC: RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RIVER GAUGES THAT ARE EITHER CURRENTLY IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD INCLUDE: AROOSTOOK RIVER AT MASARDIS PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER-FOXCROFT PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT MEDFORD MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER AT MATTAWAMKEAG PENOBSCOT RIVER AT WEST ENFIELD PENOBSCOT RIVER AT EDDINGTON THE SAINT JOHN CONTINUES TO BE ICE AFFECTED, ESPECIALLY FROM ALLAGASH DOWN TO FORT KENT. THERE IS ALSO LIKELY SOLID ICE STILL IN PLACE FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. THE AROOSTOOK IS MAINLY ICE FREE THOUGH THE MASARDIS RIVER GAGE REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE DUE TO AN ICE JAM. THE ICE IS CURRENTLY FLUSHING OUT OF THE PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS, WITH AN ICE JAM IN PLACE ON THE EAST BRANCH OF THE PENOBSCOT RIVER JUST UPSTREAM OF MEDWAY. THERE IS ALSO STILL A LOT OF ICE COVER ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER. PERSONS ALONG AREA WATERWAYS WILL NEED TO STAY ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS COMPLETELY FLUSHED OUT. IN SPITE OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF RESIDUAL RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT AND YESTERDAY`S RAIN. THIS RUNOFF CONTINUES TO AFFECT ROADS AND CULVERTS WITH MANY ROADS STILL CLOSED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT MANY RIVERS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH PEAK STAGE UNTIL SOMETIME TOMORROW AND THERE IS STILL ICE ON SOME RIVERS, WE HAVE EXTENDED THE AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MANY RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-011- 015>017-029>032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...CB/CB MARINE...CB/CB HYDROLOGY...

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