Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 070405 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1105 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will cross the region overnight. A weak occluded front will cross the area Wednesday. Low pressure will track to our northwest on Thursday then a cold front will cross the area Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Update... High pressure will cross the region overnight, with an occluded front approaching western New England late tonight. Cloud cover will increase across the forecast area overnight. Will also have patchy freezing fog across the forecast area overnight. Low temperatures will occur during the early morning hours then begin to slowly rise later tonight with the increasing cloud cover. Generally expect low temperatures to range through the single digits to around 10 above north, with mid teens Bangor and interior Downeast and upper teens to around 20 along the Downeast coast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with overnight temperatures and cloud cover. Previous Discussion... High pres will briefly ridge across the region overnight into early Wednesday. The ridge will slide e on Wednesday followed by an approaching weak frontal system that will bring some snow showers or brief period of light snow. That weak frontal system mentioned above is forecast to lift across the region during the day on Wednesday. The best forcing appears to be across the western and sw portions of the CWA. There is some weak difluence aloft w/some weak waa in the llvls to set off a round of snow showers or light snow. Not much in the way of QPF(<0.10") and w/a ratio of 12-14:1 will yield any snow accumulations of an inch at best. This again will be across the w and sw areas. Decided on a blend of the short range guidance to go w/40% pops attm. These percentages might need to be boosted as we close in on the event. It will be a milder day for Wednesday w/2-3 degrees warmer than today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Wednesday night into Thursday will remain mostly cloudy with some spotty snow showers around as a large but weak area of low pressure tracks to our northwest. A small wave of energy in the fast moving jet stream will brush south of the state on Thursday. This may enhance snow shower activity a bit during the afternoon, especially Downeast, but any accumulation should be light. Snow showers may pick up over the north later in the day as a cold front begins to approach. The low in Canada will track across Quebec Thursday night shifting our winds from southwesterly to westerly and bringing clouds and some scattered snow showers to the region. Lapse rates are steep in the low levels and some locally heavier snow showers or snow squalls are possible Thursday night as the cold front pushes across and colder air presses in. Colder air will continue to push across the region on gusty west northwesterly winds on Friday. Some spotty snow showers will be around. There is a chance for a heavier snow squall, especially across northwestern and central areas, as the colder air overspreads the region. A band of snow showers may develop along the line of convergence downstream from the Laurentians, into the northwest and central part of our area, on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Saturday will be cloudy to partly sunny and bitter cold as high pressure approaches from the west and we remain in a very cold northwesterly flow. Highs will be around 5 degrees colder than mid- winter norms. High pressure will crest over our area on Sunday bringing sunshine Downeast and sun mixed with patchy low clouds across the north. Our focus for early next week turns to a wave of low pressure crossing the Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night, possibly spreading snow across our area late Sunday night into Monday. Snow may mix with or change to rain over coastal Downeast areas late Sunday night into Monday. Dry weather should return for Tuesday although clouds may linger, especially across the north. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR, with local LIFR, conditions are expected across the forecast area overnight. Patchy freezing fog is also expected across the forecast area overnight. Generally expect MVFR conditions across northern areas Wednesday, with conditions lowering to MVFR levels Bangor and Downeast during the afternoon. SHORT TERM: VFR to MVFR conditions are expected Wednesday night followed by mainly MVFR conditions in mid and low clouds on Thursday. VFR to MVFR conditions are expected Downeast Thursday night into Friday with MVFR to occasionally IFR conditions in lower clouds and snow showers over the north. VFR conditions are likely Friday night into Saturday, possibly lowering to MVFR over the north at times.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels overnight into Wednesday. SHORT TERM: A SCA or gale will likely be needed late Thursday night into Friday night for gusty northwesterly winds. Winds should diminish Saturday into Sunday as high pressure builds over.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Hewitt Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Norcross/Bloomer Marine...Norcross/Bloomer

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