Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 141349
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
949 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be south of the area today. Weak low pressure
will approach tonight and track south of the region on Friday. High
pressure will briefly build over the area Saturday. Low pressure
will approach on Sunday and track north of the area Monday into
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9:49AM Update...Minor tweaks to the temps/dews and POPs over
the next few hours with isolated to scattered showers developing
in response to shortwave energy arriving from the northwest. In
some locations the drier boundary layer is keeping it mainly
virga in spots but expecting more showers to develop. Expecting
intially some snow showers but with warming temperatures expect
the trend of these to be more rain showers than snow. No other
major changes...
Prev discussion blo...
Light echoes still moving acrs the CWA early this morning with
little indication that anything is hitting the ground. This
looks to be the result of warm advection well in advance of
boundary located over far srn Quebec down into the Hudson Valley
of NY. Mid-clouds have moved acrs the region tonight with very
skinny ridge of high pressure over New Brunswick.
Temps will remain fairly steady around in the 30s until after sunup
where temps rise into the 40s. Temps will still be above normal
albeit lower than yda. Front and s/wv will move acrs the north this
morning into the afternoon with snow showers this morning mixing
with and then changing to rain showers as they move acrs the Crown.
Very light qpf is expected today.
As wave moves east tonight, moisture advection will occur ahead of
cold front dropping south out of Canada tonight. With fairly light
winds behind it, front will be in no hurry to move acrs CWA tonight.
This may lead to a period of patchy fog and frzg drizzle acrs nrn
areas late tonight and have included in fcst after 05z tonight thru
the morning hours. Next system will move in from the southwest with
precip moving into far swrn areas by 12z Friday morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A shallow shortwave streaming east from the Midwest will
support a weak surface low which will be situated over Southern
New England Friday morning. This low will track directly east
and across the southern edge of the Gulf of Maine on Friday.
Some light precipitation from this low is likely across the
southern part region Friday while the north is expected to
remain dry. Precipitation Downeast will likely be rain. Further
north across South Central Penobscot, Southern Piscataquis, and
northern Washington Counties some wet snow may mix in. This low
will continue east Friday night allowing dry weather to return
to the area. However, a very weak trailing upper trough may
spawn a few snow showers overnight, mostly across the north. A
weak ridge of high pressure will build over the area on Saturday
bringing a partly sunny and tranquil day. Temperatures ranging
from the upper 30s north to the low 40s Downeast will average
around 5 degrees above normal for mid-March.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Our focus Saturday night will turn to a trough and area of low
pressure approaching from the Great Lakes. As the low moves in,
snow will spread across the north and rain Downeast late
Saturday evening. By Sunday morning low pressure will be
centered over Western Quebec with an occlusion extending
southeast of this low to a triple point across Southern New
England. Rain will continue Downeast on Sunday. The rain/snow
line will likely push north during the day Sunday with wet snow
over the north possibly mixing with, or changing to rain across
the lower elevations of Eastern Aroostook County but remaining
snow over the higher elevations. The northern advance of the
rain/snow line will likely depend on the strength of developing
secondary low pressure along the triple point which will be
tracking from Southern New England into the Gulf of Maine Sunday
morning. A stronger or better defined secondary low would allow
low level cold air to remain locked in over the north keep
precipitation mostly snow, while a weak triple point will open
the way for warmer air to surge north on southeast winds
changing precipitation over the rain, even across the north. At
this point, model guidance does show a very weak secondary low
forming. It may be enough to keep snow over higher elevations
but a snow/rain mix is likely all the way north along the
Maine/New Brunswick border on Sunday. The triple point will
swing east into the Maritimes Sunday night. The upper trough and
main surface low will track across the north later Sunday night
into Monday bringing numerous snow showers with just a chance
for rain and snow showers Downeast.
Low pressure will consolidate over the Maritimes to our east on
Tuesday while moisture wrapping around the low brings scattered snow
showers with a gusty northwesterly breeze and continued cloudy
conditions. Weak high pressure will build south of the area
Wednesday allowing for partial sunshine and seasonably cold
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR this morning will give way to MVFR cigs this
morning. FVE likely to see IFR this afternoon as front moves
through with MVFR -shsn. Cannot rule out patchy fog at CAR, PQI
and HUL tonight with perhaps some freezing drizzle accompanying
it.
SHORT TERM:
Friday...IFR to MVFR south. VFR north. Light NE wind.
Friday night...MVFR to VFR south. VFR north. Light N wind.
Saturday...VFR. Light NW wind.
Saturday night...MVFR dropping to IFR. SE wind.
Sunday...IFR. SE wind.
Sunday night...IFR north. MVFR to VFR south. SW wind.
Monday...IFR north. MVFR south. SW wind.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will remain below 15 kts and seas near or below
1 foot today and tonight.
SHORT TERM:
A SCA may be needed Sunday for S winds gusting up to 25 kt. W winds
may approach 25 kt on Tuesday. Seas may reach 5 to 6 ft Sunday in
response to the south winds. Otherwise, wind and sea should remain
below SCA from late this week into early next week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Buster/Sinko
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Buster/Sinko/Bloomer
Marine...Buster/Sinko/Bloomer