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055
FXUS61 KCAR 201215
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
815 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical storm Jose will move to a position a couple hundred
miles southeast of Cape Cod today, then stall and begin to
retreat back south. High pressure will build down from the north
across our region later today into tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 8:15 AM: Have removed dense fog advisory as morning
sounding indicates fog layer very thin. Also adjusted
Temperature, dew point, and wind based on latest observations.

Jose has been downgraded to a tropical storm but continues to
maintain a large circulation and is expected to very slowly move
northeast to a position around 200 miles southeast of Cape Cod
before stalling tonight and beginning to circle back south. High
seas along the coast today and tonight will continue to be the
biggest impact of the storm on our region through tonight.

Low stratus and fog can be seen creeping north across our area
early this morning and dense fog has formed across the north.
Today will again begin with low clouds and fog across the area.
Some spotty light rain from the northern fringe of Jose will
move across the Downeast area. However, it is now looking like a
quarter inch or less of rain will fall, and most of the rain
will be confined right along the coast. Meanwhile, strong
ridging building from Ontario into Quebec will support surface
high pressure to our north which will begin building down across
our area this afternoon. This will bring clearing down from the
north, first across the north this afternoon then down across
the rest of the area tonight. Temps will drop into the 40s in
the cooler drier air over the north tonight but only down to the
upper 50s Downeast which will remain more humid overnight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Jose is forecast to drift e and then s during this term as high
pres builds into the region from the sw.

Therefore, dry wx will continue as has been the case for the
most part especially for Northern Maine and the Central Highlands.
The downeast areas will see drier wx as well as Jose pulls away.
The coastal areas will have to deal w/some wind out of the ene
on Thursday which will lead to cooler temperatures.
Temperatures will rebound on Friday as winds lighten up w/more
sunshine w/readings remaining above normal. Fog will be a
concern later Thursday night into Friday morning as temps cool
down and skies clear. This will especially be the case across
the central and northern areas.

There is still some concern for high surf along the coast mainly
on Thursday w/the large waves. Some splash over is still
possible at the time of high tide on Thursday. See Tides/Coastal
Flooding section below for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Humidity returns for this term w/warmer temps into the weekend
w/readings being some 15 to possibly 20 degrees above normal.

High pres hangs on into the weekend, but the long range
guidance(ECMWF/GFS/Canadian Global) supports the ridge
being suppressed as a disturbance or frontal boundary moves into
far northern areas on Sunday. There is support in the long range
guidance for some light rainfall(QPF) w/this feature. The GFS
continues to be the most aggressive w/the rainfall and looks as
though it could be having convective feedback. ECWMF and
Canadian Global show less rainfall. Moisture profiles do not
look that deep but there is some upper level difluence to
support lift. Therefore, stayed w/the prospect of 20-30% pops
for far northern areas on Sunday into Sunday evening. The rest
of the region stays dry.

It looks as though the frontal boundary could get hung up
across far Northern Maine w/the zonal(w) flow aloft. This would
keep the threat for showers going on Monday. Decided on 20-30%
pops for showers on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds are expected this
morning. Conditions should improve to MVFR then VFR across the
north this afternoon then over the rest of the area tonight as
high pressure pushes down from the north.

SHORT TERM: VFR for the most part for all terminals. The
exception to this will be the potential for fog later Thursday
night into Friday morning which would bring vsbys down to MVFR
and even IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA for seas will continue today with swell from
Jose building to 8-10 ft. The SCA will likely have to be
upgraded to included both wind and seas tonight.

SHORT TERM: NE winds are expected to increase on Thursday
w/Jose`s closest apch. Stayed w/the daycrew`s assessment of
20-25 kts sustained and gusts to near 35 kts. The highest gusts
will be across the outer zones. Seas w/long period swells of
8-11 ft. Conditions are expected to improve on Friday w/wind
dropping off but seas will still stay up between 6-7 ft. The
seas look like they will subside to below 6 ft by Saturday
w/winds around 10 kts. This could be short lived as Jose could
be picked up by Hurricane Maria and lifted ne which would allow
for seas to build back up again. One other item to keep in mind
is that there will be a swell that will hang right into the
weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Currently long period swell from Jose which is running at 14
seconds/5-6 feet continues to enter the Gulf of Maine. Waves are
expected to increase in height today. Concern is that long
period waves will have a high impact in the surf zone, and can
run up much higher on the shore than shorter period waves
resulting in the danger of spectators being washed into the
ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents are also expected.

The astronomical tide will be at the highest levels of the
month as well over the next few days. Northeasterly winds are
expected to increase Later Today into Thursday resulting in an
additional 1 foot of storm surge. The largest waves are expected
to arrive today into tonight. Therefore the high tides at 11:50
PM Tonight and Thursday Afternoon at 12:13 PM are of greatest
concern for runup and splash-over along coastal areas directly
exposed to large ocean waves.

Since the expected storm surge is going to be only around 1
foot, the total water levels inland from the coast are NOT
expected to be high enough for flooding resulting from storm
surge alone.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ050>052.
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&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone