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238
FXUS61 KCAR 071904
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
304 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will continue south tonight into Tuesday as high
pressure builds across the north. High pressure will remain over the
area Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will slowly cross the area
Thursday into Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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A front remains stalled across the north this evening,
continuing the rain threat across the north while Downeast
remains mostly clear. Between these two regimes, diurnal heating
mixed with elevated moisture levels has led to the development
of plenty of towering cumulus, scattered showers, and isolated
thunderstorms. The shower and thunderstorm threat will continue
across the Central Highlands into southern Aroostook county over
the next several hours prior to the decrease in diurnal heating
as the sun begins to set this evening. With 30 to 40 kts of bulk
shear, around 1500 J/kg CAPE, and robust moisture, these storms
may become organized enough to persist for longer periods of
time and have the potential to become strong to severe. The main
threat from any organized thunderstorm will be of gusty winds,
though heavy rain is quite possible as well.

Overnight, the stalled front will finally begin to shift
southwards, entering the Downeast region by early Tuesday
morning and translating the shower and storm threat to this
region, while the north begins to dry out. Showers will continue
through much of the day on Tuesday, while thunderstorms are
most likely during peak heating hours Tuesday afternoon. Cooler
temperatures are in store with the return of cold air advection
as the boundary moves through in addition to the return of
cloudy skies and evaporational cooling. Highs will likely sit in
the mid 70s over the majority of the forecast area on Tuesday.

The front should slide off the coast by Tuesday night, leaving
the forecast area to begin to dry out overnight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Weak high pressure will be over the northeast on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a weak upper trough will begin to approach from the Great
Lakes region beneath a blocking ridge over East Central Canada. This
blocking ridge will make the approach of this trough very slow.
Moisture lifting north ahead of the trough will bring a mostly
cloudy and seasonably warm day on Wednesday with inland highs in the
upper 70s. The trough will continue to slowly approach Wednesday
night and some showers may stray into western areas toward morning.
As the trough continues to approach on Thursday, it will develop
weak low pressure to our west with a secondary low forming east of
Southern New England. The low offshore is expected to track well
south of the area. However, moisture and lift from the trough will
bring a mostly cloudy day with showers and a chance of afternoon
thunderstorms, mainly across western and northern areas. High
temperatures will be seasonable, mainly in the upper 70s inland.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The upper trough will continue to slowly advance through Southern
Quebec Thursday night, beneath the blocking upper high over Northern
Quebec. This will continue to bring mostly cloudy conditions with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly north and west.
The trough will begin to lift up to our north on Friday. Moisture
and some cool air aloft will continue to produce scattered showers
and a chance of thunderstorms well inland, possibly continuing into
Friday evening. The trough should finally begin to exit east,
northeast into the Northern Maritimes Friday night into Saturday as
upper level ridging begins to follow, building in from Western
Quebec. Subsidence behind the departing trough and ahead of the
upper ridge should bring some clearing Friday night followed by a
mostly sunny day on Saturday. The ridge should build over on Sunday
bringing a partly sunny and warm day. A large upper trough building
over West Central Canada will facilitate the breakdown of the
blocking pattern allowing for the clearing over the weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM:
Northern terminals: MVFR/IFR conditions generally continue
through this evening and overnight in rain showers. Brief
thunderstorms possible at GNR/MLT/HUL. Even after rain clears
out of the area tonight, low cigs are likely to remain. Beyond
around 11z, conditions will begin to rapidly improve, trending
towards IFR by Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. E winds 5
to 10 kts become light and variable overnight, shifting N around
5 kts for Tuesday, then becoming light and variable Tuesday
night.

Bangor/Downeast terminals: VFR conditions continue through this
evening, before rain moves in from the north leading to cigs
falling to MVFR/IFR into early Tuesday morning. BGR could see an
isolated thunderstorm overnight as the front begins to push into
the area. Coastal terminals may see LLWS this evening between
around 22z and 04z. IFR/LIFR cigs to begin the day on Tuesday
could improve to MVFR through the day, but rain showers likely
to keep conditions below VFR or at most low end VFR through the
day on Tuesday, finally recovering further into Tuesday night. S
winds 5 to 10 kts become light and variable overnight, shifting
NE 5 to 10 kts on Tuesday, then light and variable Tuesday
night.


SHORT TERM:
Wednesday...VFR. Light and variable wind.

Wednesday night...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR late. Light E wind.

Thursday...VFR to MVFR, becoming VFR. Light SE wind.

Thursday night...MVFR to IFR north. MVFR south. Light SE wind.

Friday...MVFR to VFR south. IFR to MVFR north. Light SE wind.

Friday night...MVFR north. VFR south. Light E wind.

Saturday...VFR. Light E wind.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds/seas should remain below SCA levels through
Tuesday night. A few gusts to around 25 kt are possible across
the outer most waters into this evening. Visibility will be
reduced to 1 NM or less at times tonight through Tuesday morning
in fog and scattered showers.

SHORT TERM:
Generally tranquil conditions are expected from midweek through
the coming weekend. Some mist or patchy fog is possible over
the waters through late week into the weekend.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ015.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...AStrauser/Bloomer
Marine...AStrauser/Bloomer