Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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055 FXUS61 KCAR 201215 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 815 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical storm Jose will move to a position a couple hundred miles southeast of Cape Cod today, then stall and begin to retreat back south. High pressure will build down from the north across our region later today into tonight. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 8:15 AM: Have removed dense fog advisory as morning sounding indicates fog layer very thin. Also adjusted Temperature, dew point, and wind based on latest observations. Jose has been downgraded to a tropical storm but continues to maintain a large circulation and is expected to very slowly move northeast to a position around 200 miles southeast of Cape Cod before stalling tonight and beginning to circle back south. High seas along the coast today and tonight will continue to be the biggest impact of the storm on our region through tonight. Low stratus and fog can be seen creeping north across our area early this morning and dense fog has formed across the north. Today will again begin with low clouds and fog across the area. Some spotty light rain from the northern fringe of Jose will move across the Downeast area. However, it is now looking like a quarter inch or less of rain will fall, and most of the rain will be confined right along the coast. Meanwhile, strong ridging building from Ontario into Quebec will support surface high pressure to our north which will begin building down across our area this afternoon. This will bring clearing down from the north, first across the north this afternoon then down across the rest of the area tonight. Temps will drop into the 40s in the cooler drier air over the north tonight but only down to the upper 50s Downeast which will remain more humid overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Jose is forecast to drift e and then s during this term as high pres builds into the region from the sw. Therefore, dry wx will continue as has been the case for the most part especially for Northern Maine and the Central Highlands. The downeast areas will see drier wx as well as Jose pulls away. The coastal areas will have to deal w/some wind out of the ene on Thursday which will lead to cooler temperatures. Temperatures will rebound on Friday as winds lighten up w/more sunshine w/readings remaining above normal. Fog will be a concern later Thursday night into Friday morning as temps cool down and skies clear. This will especially be the case across the central and northern areas. There is still some concern for high surf along the coast mainly on Thursday w/the large waves. Some splash over is still possible at the time of high tide on Thursday. See Tides/Coastal Flooding section below for more details. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Humidity returns for this term w/warmer temps into the weekend w/readings being some 15 to possibly 20 degrees above normal. High pres hangs on into the weekend, but the long range guidance(ECMWF/GFS/Canadian Global) supports the ridge being suppressed as a disturbance or frontal boundary moves into far northern areas on Sunday. There is support in the long range guidance for some light rainfall(QPF) w/this feature. The GFS continues to be the most aggressive w/the rainfall and looks as though it could be having convective feedback. ECWMF and Canadian Global show less rainfall. Moisture profiles do not look that deep but there is some upper level difluence to support lift. Therefore, stayed w/the prospect of 20-30% pops for far northern areas on Sunday into Sunday evening. The rest of the region stays dry. It looks as though the frontal boundary could get hung up across far Northern Maine w/the zonal(w) flow aloft. This would keep the threat for showers going on Monday. Decided on 20-30% pops for showers on Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds are expected this morning. Conditions should improve to MVFR then VFR across the north this afternoon then over the rest of the area tonight as high pressure pushes down from the north. SHORT TERM: VFR for the most part for all terminals. The exception to this will be the potential for fog later Thursday night into Friday morning which would bring vsbys down to MVFR and even IFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SCA for seas will continue today with swell from Jose building to 8-10 ft. The SCA will likely have to be upgraded to included both wind and seas tonight. SHORT TERM: NE winds are expected to increase on Thursday w/Jose`s closest apch. Stayed w/the daycrew`s assessment of 20-25 kts sustained and gusts to near 35 kts. The highest gusts will be across the outer zones. Seas w/long period swells of 8-11 ft. Conditions are expected to improve on Friday w/wind dropping off but seas will still stay up between 6-7 ft. The seas look like they will subside to below 6 ft by Saturday w/winds around 10 kts. This could be short lived as Jose could be picked up by Hurricane Maria and lifted ne which would allow for seas to build back up again. One other item to keep in mind is that there will be a swell that will hang right into the weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Currently long period swell from Jose which is running at 14 seconds/5-6 feet continues to enter the Gulf of Maine. Waves are expected to increase in height today. Concern is that long period waves will have a high impact in the surf zone, and can run up much higher on the shore than shorter period waves resulting in the danger of spectators being washed into the ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents are also expected. The astronomical tide will be at the highest levels of the month as well over the next few days. Northeasterly winds are expected to increase Later Today into Thursday resulting in an additional 1 foot of storm surge. The largest waves are expected to arrive today into tonight. Therefore the high tides at 11:50 PM Tonight and Thursday Afternoon at 12:13 PM are of greatest concern for runup and splash-over along coastal areas directly exposed to large ocean waves. Since the expected storm surge is going to be only around 1 foot, the total water levels inland from the coast are NOT expected to be high enough for flooding resulting from storm surge alone. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052.
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