Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 261908 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 308 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OPEN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A ROUND OF WET WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... QUIET AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL END BY SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SKIRT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS A UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE W/A RATHER MILD NIGHT COMING UP. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS ALONG W/THE GEM SUPPORT SOME LLVL MOISTURE GETTING UNDER THE DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT. PLUS A SOUTHERLY IN PLACE AND THIS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD SETUP FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE, ADDED FOG STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING W/THE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. THE LATEST SUITE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRES MOVING NE ACROSS QUEBEC LATER SUNDAY W/THE THREAT FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE SETTING IN PLACE THROUGH 500MBS ALONG PWATS APPROACHING 1.5". DECENT SSW INFLOW AS WELL. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOKS INTERESTING W/SB CAPES AVERAGING 800-1200 J/KG AND LIS DROPPING TO -5. THERE IS DECENT DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR W/0-6KM OF UP TO 30KTS. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS THERE AND THERE IS ALSO SOME MID LEVEL FORCING TO HELP TRIGGER THE STORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND 11,500 FT W/CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 70F. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HIT THE LOW TO MID 70S. SO, TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT HOW STRONG WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE REGION GETS ENOUGH HEATING BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER AND TIMING. ATTM, DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LEFT OUT ENHANCED WORDING. REASONS BEING ARE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST(6.0 C/KM) AND THE EXTENT OF THE BUOYANCY. ONCE AGAIN, THIS IS NOT SAYING THAT STORMS CANNOT BECOME STRONG, IT IS JUST THE CONFIDENCE ATTM IN NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING. THIS WAS COLLABORATED W/GYX. THE LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A LEAD SURFACE LOW LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN NORTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY LEAVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT BETWEEN WAVES...WITH A STEADIER RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY. CONFIDENCE ON RAIN IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MONDAY. THICK CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIMIT SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT STEEP WITH MINIMAL MID/UPPER LEVEL CAPE SO IT WOULD APPEAR THE THREAT OF T-STORMS WILL NOT BE ANY HIGHER THAN ISOLATED AT BEST. NOT AS WET FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY AND SW FLOW ALOFT A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A STRONG BLOCKING SUB TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NW ATLANTIC WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 600 DM JUST EAST OF LABRADOR LATE IN THE WEEK! THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A SW FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MUCH OF THE TIME MID-LATE WEEK...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS WEAK AND LIKELY ILL DEFINED SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL...AND THUS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT W/POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOR KBGR, KBHB UP INTO KHUL W/SOUTHERLY INFLOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL STAY W/VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THEN THE FORECAST IS FOR CONDITIONS TO GO MVFR. SHORT TERM: UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMES OF IFR OR EVEN VLIFR MONDAY IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG. LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO TUE MORNING WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MOSTLY VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY VFR FOR WED-THU...BUT BRIEFLY MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ATTM. THERE IS A SOUTHERLY SWELL ON THE WATERS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE RUNNING AT LEAST A GOOD FOOT BELOW THE GUIDANCE AND DECIDED TO UNDERCUT THE WAVE GUIDANCE BY A FOOT INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO 10-15 KT SUSTAINED. THIS SETUP SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 4 FT. SHORT TERM: BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES PASSES WEST OF THE WATERS AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT. THE WIND AND SEAS LOOK TOO HIGH ON THE WNAWAVE AND WERE UNCUT BY A FAIR AMOUNT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...HEWITT/CB MARINE...HEWITT/CB

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