Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 141612 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1212 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide south of the region today into tonight. A cold front will approach on Tuesday and cross the area Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure will build in from the west Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1210 PM... High pressure will continue to move east of the region today. A developing warm front will move northeast across the region this afternoon. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Will maintain an isolated shower or thunderstorm across northwest areas as visible satellite is showing increasing cu development. No changes to high temperature forecast as highs are still expected to reach the upper 80s across the north and lower 80s across central and down east areas. Low pressure will pass well to the northwest of the region late tonight. High temperature today is expected range from the mid to upper 70s in the north to low 80s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Expect frontal bndry to be located to the north of the state Tue mrng with swrly flow drawing in humid air. Cdfnt wl drop closer to CWA by 00z Wed with perhaps a pre-frontal trof kicking a round of storms off in the aftn acrs the region. CAPES look to range fm 500- 1000 with fairly steep mid-lvl lapse rates in cntrl zones mid-late aftn. Potential exists for strong storms in the aftn, gnrly north of Bangor ahd of pre-frontal trof. Downeast zones wl lkly be starting the day in the marine lyr which wl lkly take until aftn to burn off. Will allow later shifts to add in enhanced wording for Tue as it still looks to be in question for which area wl see the greatest threat. Cdfnt wl be mvg thru the area Tue night with storms waning thru 03z with loss of diurnal htg. Med range guidance is in disagreement on how soon fropa occurs with GFS/EC bringing it thru CWA by 12z Wed while NAM/CMC about 6 hrs slower. Hv opted to maintain continuity with quicker frontal passage, thus not indicating any pcpn aft mrng hrs. Cold advection expected following fropa with maxes on Wed running 3-8 degrees blo normal. Temps along the immediate coast wl be warmer than Tue due to offshore flow. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upr low wl be departing into the Maritimes at the start of the long term with upr lvl ridge trying to build in. GFS is much stronger with upr ridge by 06z Fri while EC and CMC rmn flatter allowing sfc low to undercut and spread showers into swrn zones Thu night. Long term pd rmns up in the air with blocking downstream playing a big role on timing of pcpn chcs. EC and CMC keep nrn zones dry on Sat while GFS has showers acrs entire CWA. This is due strictly to how respective models are handling the block. For now hv gone with Superblend for the extndd with low chc pops each period thru the weekend. Wl be able to get a better handle on timing, hopefully within the next day or two. Overall confidence is very low for long term portion of fcst. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. SHORT TERM: IFR possible Tue morning for southern terminals in low clds and fog. Tue will be mainly VFR with the exception of localized MVFR in storms. VFR expected through Thursday with very low confidence in restrictions by Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids and will reduce the model wind speed by 15 percent to adjust for high bias resulting from relatively cold sea surface temperature over the Gulf of Maine. For Waves: The primary wave system today will be the result of southeasterly swell (3-4 feet/7-8 seconds) which was generated yesterday in a southerly fetch from the gulf of Maine southward. This wave group is expected to persist through tonight. Wind wave today and tonight will be 1 foot or less. Will initialize waves with the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) and reduce wave heights from the model by 1 foot to adjust high model bias. Long period swell from Tropical Storm Gert is not expected to arrive until Wednesday. Will use wave heights from NWPS for the Surf Zone Forecast. SHORT TERM: No headlines anticipated through Wed as winds and seas remain below SCA levels. May see seas appchg 5ft Wed evening in srly swell from TS Gert. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Duda/Farrar Marine...Duda/Farrar

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