Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240303 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1003 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT THEN NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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930 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS BACK AFTER COLLABORATION W/GYX THAT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING IN THE 30S AND WILL HOLD THERE FOR THE NEXT 3 HRS OR SO BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT W/WAA TAKING HOLD AND CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE. WINDS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD ON MONDAY AS 55 KT JET AT 925MBS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFFECTING MAINLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION. FOR POPS...WINDS....SKY AND QPF WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT HAVE USED THE RAW BLEND TO BETTER HANDLE THE TRANSITION TO A WARMER AIR MASS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE MONDAY NIGHT DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE EVENING...WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE WILL EXPAND NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW LATER WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... COASTAL LOW MOVING APPROACHING FROM EAST COAST AT START OF PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. 12Z GFS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE LOW ALREADY ENTERING CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A MUCH DEEPER AND WRN TRACKING SYSTEM IN THE ECMWF MODEL. STILL FEEL ECMWF MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT WITH A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY OPTED TO USE A BLEND WITH MORE GRAVITY GIVEN TO GFS SOLUTION. RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER DOWNEAST TO NORTHEASTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TAPERING TO LIKELY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. WITH RAPID PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM EXPECT TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH THOUGH FRIDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM GREAT LAKES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING OF WARM FRONT BY LATE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN ZONES. COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWING ACROSS REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CHNCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THEN MVFR/IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DOWNEAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. WILL ISSUE GALE AND START GALE AT 1500Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WINDS MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HAVE REMOVE SCA WITH ISSUANCE OF GALE. FOR WAVES: WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS NOW LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP 7-8 FEET/9 SECONDS. THIS WAVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RUNNING AROUND 2 FEET HIGHER THAN THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL SO AFTER INITIALIZING WITH THE WNA/4 HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS HIGHER TO BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONS. THIS FETCH SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA THIS EVENING AS THIS WAVE SYSTEM SUBSIDES... BASED ON WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE. A SIGNIFICANT NEW FETCH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD AS WIND FORCING INCREASES. EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY EVENING MONDAY. SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT

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