Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 261326 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 926 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE 0925 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS... NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT. NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL DISSOLVE THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. ELSEWHERE...H850 HAS DECREASED FROM YESTERDAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN LESS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S OUTSIDE OF SOME UPPER 50S TOWARDS THE DOWN EAST COAST. HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT DRAWING CLOSER AND IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ALOFT...A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS QUEBEC WED. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THU AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE BY 00Z FRI. SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW MAINE EARLY IN THE DAY WED AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THU. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS IN THESE AREAS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL LIKELY GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY FALL WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND 70 TO 75 DEGREES DOWNEAST WHERE THERE WILL BE A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE/NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI AND IS FOLLOWED BY SOME FLAT RIDGING. A SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FRI AND BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RETURN FLOW SATURDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST AND A COLD FRONT ORGANIZES OFF TO THE NW OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT PM MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE WEATHER IS MORE IN QUESTION DOWNEAST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND COULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY WILL BY SEASONABLE FOR THE END OF AUGUST AND START OF SEPTEMBER. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MAINE COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM WILL STAY WELL AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE ONLY IMPACT SHOULD BE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO INCLUDE BHB UNTIL MID MORNING. BGR MAY EXPERIENCE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS BRIEFLY ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE COAST. SHORT TERM: VFR WED WITH TIMES OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOSTLY MVFR IN STRATOCU AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL TO KFVE THU WITH MAINLY VFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS. VFR EXPECTED THU NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SAT. MVFR AT TIMES LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING NEARLY 20 KTS. PATCHY FOG NEAR THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD TOWARDS 4 FT. SHORT TERM: A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON THU FOR SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. THE SWELL SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING TO BELOW SCA LEVELS. && .CLIMATE... BACK TO BACK HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET AT CARIBOU. MONDAY WAS THE 2ND DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU. ON SUNDAY (AUG 24TH) THE HIGH OF 88 DEGREES BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 86 SET IN 1980. ON MONDAY (AUGUST 25TH) THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO 88 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86 SET IN 1999. THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT CARIBOU IS 89 DEGREES SET JUST 2 YEARS AGO IN 2012. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD COME VERY CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH. THE RECORD AT BANGOR TODAY IS 98 DEGREES SET IN 1948...AND THAT RECORD IS WELL OUT OF REACH. SO FAR THIS SUMMER THERE HAVE BEEN A TOTAL OF 30 DAYS WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES OR WARMER. THIS COMPARES TO 26 LAST SUMMER. THE AVERAGE (1981-2010) NUMBER OF 80 DEGREE DAYS AT CARIBOU DURING THE SUMMER IS 26. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

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