Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 281148 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 648 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE. THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS DOWN EAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING*** HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE. THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI. THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS. && .CLIMATE... A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN 1963. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...DUDA/CB MARINE...DUDA/CB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...CB

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