Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 182105 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 505 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area into Tuesday while Hurricane Jose approaches southeastern New England. Jose will turn eastward and track south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A warm front will lift north of the region overnight while high pressure remains ridged across the forecast area. Satellite imagery indicates low clouds still covering most of the Downeast region. Across the remainder of the region, the low clouds have eroded in some locations while persisting in others. Low level moisture will persist across the region tonight. Skies will remain cloudy Downeast tonight. Expect low clouds will re- develop and bank up against the higher terrain across the rest of the region overnight, similar to last night. Fog will also move inland across Downeast areas early tonight along with patchy drizzle and a chance of showers. Fog will re-develop across the rest of the region, particularly east of the higher terrain, overnight. A Dense Fog Advisory could be needed across much of the region again later tonight. High pressure will remain ridged across the region Tuesday, though moisture from Hurricane Jose could begin to bring increasing rain chances to Downeast areas during the afternoon. Otherwise, expect extensive low clouds and fog early tomorrow across much of the region east of the higher terrain. Skies will remain mostly cloudy Downeast Tuesday. Across the remainder of the region, clouds should lift and thin with partly/mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon. Could also have a chance/slight chance of rain during the afternoon across central and northern areas, with the lesser rain chances to the north. Low temperatures tonight will range through the 50s north, to the upper 50s Downeast. The warmest temperatures Tuesday will again occur across northwest areas where the most sun is expected with highs in the mid 70s. High temperatures across much of the rest of the region will range from the upper 60s to around 70, with mid to upper 60s along the Downeast coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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The model guidance is in good general agreement through the short term period of the forecast. A high pressure ridge will be in place across northern Maine, with Hurricane Jose moving north along the eastern seaboard east of NJ south of Long Island. The feeder bands from Jose will interact with the coastal front bringing showers and thunderstorms to Downeast Maine. Jose is forecasted to move northeast and track across the southern portions of the Gulf of Maine then drift back to the southwest towards Cape Cod. By the end of the period Jose will be south of Eastport, east of Cape Cod. The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM all generally agree with minor timing and positional differences. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used GFS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure will be ridged across Maine through most of the extended period. Hurricane Jose will be in the north Atlantic well south of Eastport and southeast of Cape Cod. Jose will slowly drift south to southwest and begin to fill. A weak frontal boundary will drop into northern Maine Sunday morning bringing a few shower across the north. The high pressure ridge will push this front back to the north Sunday evening and will remain across the region through the end of the period. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models, however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor tool.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR to LIFR conditions with low clouds and fog are expected Downeast early tonight, with LIFR/VLIFR conditions later tonight into early Tuesday. MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected again Downeast Tuesday afternoon. Variable conditions, ranging from VFR to IFR, will occur across northern areas early tonight with IFR to VLIFR conditions overnight through early Tuesday. Conditions across northern areas will improve to VFR to IFR levels again Tuesday afternoon. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions for FVE, CAR, PQI, MVFR for HUL. MVFR reduced to IFR in shower and thunderstorms for BGR and BHB at the start of the period. By Wednesday evening VFR spread to HUL and BGR, MVFR will remain in BHB until early AM Thursday. VFR conditions the remainder of the period. Early morning fog in and around bodies of water Thursday and Friday, will burn off about 2 hrs after sunrise.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas is in effect for the waters tonight through Tuesday. Visibilities will be significantly reduced in widespread fog tonight through Tuesday. Will also have a chance of showers tonight, with increasing rain chances Tuesday. SHORT TERM: A SCA will be in effect at the start of the period for winds and seas. A gale warning may be required on Thursday as Jose remains south of the Gulf of Maine.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Will issue a high surf advisory starting at 21Z. Concern is very long period southeasterly swell from Jose, currently running as high as 16 seconds. High period swell will have a much greater impact in the surf zone. Long period waves can run up much higher on the shore than shorter period waves resulting in the danger of spectators being washed into the ocean. Dangerous Rip Currents are also expected. The astronomical tide will be at the highest levels of the month as well over the next few days. Northeasterly winds are expected to increase Wednesday resulting in an additional 1 foot storm surge. The additional increase in water level due to the winds coupled with high period southeasterly swell could result in splash over around the time of high tide Tuesday Night (11:00 PM) and Wednesday Morning (11:30 AM) in areas exposed to large ocean waves. Since the expected storm surge is going to be less than 2 feet, the total water levels inland from the coast are not expected to be high enough for flooding resulting from storm surge.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Norcross Short Term...Norton Long Term...Norton Aviation...Norcross/Norton Marine...Norcross/Norton Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone

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