Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 190119 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 919 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and cross the area on Friday. High pressure will build down from Canada Friday night into Saturday then crest over the area on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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9 PM Update... Thunderstorms are moving across the St. John Valley and Allagash region containing some hail and gusty winds. Convective parameters support wind gusts to 50 mph. Cold front has snuck into the Crown attm and extended back into Quebec. Winds have turned around to the nw at KFVE and temp dropped to 68F. Dewpoint axis ahead of the front of upper 50s to lower 60s set up across northern Aroostook County per the latest analysis. Storms appear to be moving along this axis being able to hold together. There is some vertical extent to the cells heading toward ne Aroostook. Activity will slide ese through the late evening and gradually weaken. Added gusty winds and hail to the updated forecast. Previous discussion... A strong cold front will push into the north Friday morning ushering in a much cooler and drier air mass. Some light showers may be across the north with the front during the morning, but less than 0.5 inches of rain is expected. The afternoon Friday will then bring a clearing trend and a cool, crisp northwesterly breeze as the front pushes offshore.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure wl be building in bhnd cdfnt Fri night with skies clrg. Mins wl be approx 20-25 degrees cldr than the night bfr as strong caa mvs in on nrly flow, which wl end up being just slightly blo normal for mid-May. Fortunately pressure gradient wl rmn so that the threat for frost does not appear lkly for Sat mrng. 1030mb sfc high fcst to be in cntrl Quebec by 00z Sunday with ridge axis extndg down thru New England. This wl slowly allow winds to come down in the evng. Skies wl be mosunny for Sat with maxes rmng blo normal as cold air conts to drain in fm Canada. H5 heights increase thru the weekend with upr lvl ridge rmng just to our west by the end of the short term pd. Temps wl moderate to abv normal on Sunday with clds increasing fm the west drg the aftn ahd of next system in the upr Midwest. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As an upper ridge crests over the area Sun night, showers will quickly move in from the west as a Low moving through the Great Lakes pushes a warm front into New England. At this point, am not expecting the CWA to get into the warm sector, so have kept any mention of thunder out of the grids for Mon and Mon night. Indeed, most models are hinting at the occlusion extending toward Maine and a triple point low forming near or off the coast Mon eve, which would decisively lock us out of any warm sector instability. Clouds and some showers may linger into Tue, especially up north, while the upper trough slowly slides across the state. Some clearing is possible Tue night once the trough shifts to the west, but a lingering boundary over or just north of the northern CWA could bring some showers back into the picture as early as Wed. Rain chances increase again Wed night into Thu night as all models show the next low pressure system moving toward the area, but there are still significant differences on timing. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions across the north will drop to MVFR late tonight, possibly briefly reaching IFR over the north north Friday morning. Conditions will improve to VFR Friday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected Downeast tonight and Friday. SHORT TERM: VFR expected through the weekend under high pressure. MVFR will move in ahead of next system on Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA tonight. A SCA will be up Friday for gusty southwesterly winds, becoming westerly as the cold front pushes across the waters. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will drop below small craft levels Friday night and remain below SCA through the weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt/Norton Aviation...Hewitt/Norton Marine...Hewitt/Norton

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