Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241009 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 509 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THURSDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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PRECIPITATION SO FAR HAS BEEN EXTREMELY LIGHT OVER THE AREA. IT IS STILL COMING, BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME GETTING HERE. RIGHT NOW DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, THERE IS JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE. IT IS OCCURRING AS FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM ROUGHLY DOVER FOXCROFT AND HOULTON NORTH. TEMPERATURES FROM BANGOR TO THE COAST ARE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING DESPITE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THANKS TO A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND SOME COLD AIR DAMMING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE A BIT MIDDAY UNTIL AFTERNOON. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE STEADY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY. FOR MANY AREAS, THE STEADY PRECIPITATION WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL TEMPERATURES RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE BETWEEN NOW AND MIDDAY COULD STILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, OPTED TO LEAVE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW, RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK NORTHWARD. THE AREAS THAT HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MORE SUBSTANTIAL FREEZING RAIN OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IS IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY, WHERE TEMPS WILL STILL BE JUST BELOW FREEZING WHEN THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AROUND MIDDAY. ALL AREAS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BY ABOUT SUNSET TODAY. THEN, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY RISE ALL NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT RAIN ALL NIGHT, WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES DOWNEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, BECOMING QUITE GUSTY ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL DRAW AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY BOTH IN FRONT OF THE OCCLUSION AND IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES COULD BE REQUIRED THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO LABRADOR THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF EVENING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST. A STEADIER LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. MODELS THEN INDICATE LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY LIFTING ALONG THE COAST LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR FOR MOST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF BANGOR WILL SEE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AND THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MIDDAY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY EVENING. WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE GROUND. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SUNDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS DOWNEAST.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 11 FEET OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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HEAVY RAIN WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES ON TOP OF A MELTING SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS, WHILE FURTHER NORTH, LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE. HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH NORTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE. WILL EMPHASIZE IN THE FLOOD WATCH THAT FLOODING FOR NORTHERN MAINE WILL MAINLY BE FROM LOCALIZED ICE JAMS, WHILE FLOODING FURTHER SOUTH WILL BE FROM HIGH RIVER LEVELS.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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RELATIVELY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE. HIGH TIDES OCCUR AT APPROXIMATELY 1158 AM WEDNESDAY...0034 AM EST THURSDAY MORNING AND 1250 PM EST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR OVERTOPPING WEDNESDAY AND MAY BE MARGINAL WITH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE. WAVES HOWEVER WILL BUILD TO AROUND 12 FEET/9 SECONDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...SO MINOR OVERTOPPING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE. STORM SURGE FOR THIS EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR TIDAL FLOODING.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CHRISTMAS DAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH FOR BANGOR IS 54F. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51F, SET IN 2003. AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS 48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF 48F AT CARIBOU.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-002. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ003>006-010-031. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...FOISY/NORCROSS MARINE...FOISY/NORCROSS HYDROLOGY...FOISY TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FOISY CLIMATE...FOISY

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