Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 150212 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 912 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will remain to our north tonight and Friday as high pressure builds south of the area. A weak upper level low will cross the region Friday night through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 9:00 PM Update...Forecast is in good shape, surface gradient isn`t allowing temperatures to drop off that quickly. Min temperatures should remain in the single digits for most areas with a few sub-zero readings, expecially in sheltered areas. A few flurries are still possible across the Saint John Valley through midnight. Strong offshore winds and SCA conditions will occur over the waters. 6:30 PM Update...Not too many updates to the forecast this evening. Just tweaked the cloud cover a little and trimmed backed the chance for an isolated snow shower/flurries to the Northwoods and St. John Valley. Besides that raised the waves up on the oceans based on current Bouy data. Overall cold night, lakes should really begin to freeze over with the very cold airmass in place. A large, deep upper level low to our north combined with high pressure building to our south will maintain a very cold western flow tonight. The gradient is likely strong enough for a breeze to continue through the night. Northern areas will have partial cloudiness. A bit of moisture wrapping around the bottom of the low in addition to some moisture getting picked up from the St. Lawrence seaway will likely support flurries across the north tonight. Further south, skies will be mostly clear. High pressure nearby to the south will allow Friday to begin mostly sunny. Some mid and high clouds will increase late in the day from an upper level shortwave trough approaching from the west. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Hipres builds briefly ovr CWA on Fri night at the start of the pd. This wl be enuf to help winds go calm in the valleys but with clds increasing ahd of upr lvl wv dropping thru srn Canada min temps wl lkly only be able to drop into the negative single digits acrs the St. John Vly. Inverted trof fm ocean storm progged to extend into coastal zones thru Sat mrng in the form of a Norlun trof as low from the Great Lks fills with hipres to the north. Snow showers wl slowly come to an end acrs coastal zones by Sat aftn with possible isold snow showers and/or flurries continuing acrs the northwest in orographic lift. Trof wl be exiting to the south and east Sat night with vry little in the way of pcpn expected thru the end of the weekend. Dry nw flow wl continue as hipres build in fm Canada with cold air filtering south for Sat night and Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure wl be present Sun night with most med range guidance indicating wk wv rotating thru the area on Monday with snow showers ovr all but coastal zones. The next chc for pcpn looks to be by Tue aftn with some question as to how much blyr can warm ahd of system. GFS indicates most of the area wl see rain late Tue night while EC and CMC indicate a possible mix with sleet along the coast on Tue evng bfr switching back to all snow late. 12z GFS indicates 990mb sfc low in the Gulf of Maine by 06z Wed which draws in much warmer air aloft while EC and CMC are much weaker with sfc trof. Rmndr of the long term wl feature a return to dry and cold temps. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected tonight and Friday, with the possible exception of some occasional MVFR conditions in flurries over the far north tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected with possible MVFR/localized IFR Fri night in southern terminals as weak low pressure may bring snow showers. VFR expected at terminals through the weekend with isolated lower restrictions across the north in ocnl low stratus. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SCA will continue for winds gusting up to 30 kt tonight into Friday morning. Winds should gradually diminish Friday afternoon as high pressure builds to the south. SHORT TERM: Seas and winds will remain below SCA levels Fri night before winds increase Sat evening and overnight as a system passes well south of the waters through Sun morning. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM EST Friday for MEZ001-003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/Dumont Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Bloomer/Dumont/Farrar Marine...Bloomer/Dumont/Farrar

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