Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 252050 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 450 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTROL AREA WEATHER ALL WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WHILE THE NORTH STAYS MOSTLY SUNNY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS W/MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. VERY CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE APRIL. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S NORTH AND WEST WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST SHOULD SEE LOW TO MID 20S. 925MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE -5 TO -10C. THIS IS QUITE COLD FOR LATE APRIL. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTHERN 1/2 WHILE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING W/THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS AIRMASS FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE DRY AND MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED TO THE 925-850MBS LAYER. A BIT WARMER WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/MORE CLOUDS AND THE SPOTTY PRECIP. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S CWA WIDE. HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL CANADA RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR THURSDAY BUT CONTINUED COLD AND BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THIS COLD AIRMASS SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND BUT THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. UPPER TROF THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALOFT SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING ALLOWING FOR SOME MILDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND WEST W/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM: VFR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS AS MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE W/SOME SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY. BACK TO VFR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR WAVES: CURRENTLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE LIGHT AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A BLEND OF LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTH AND WIND WAVE. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND THEREFORE EXPECT WIND WAVE TO BECOME DOMINATE WAVE SYSTEM TUESDAY. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERM. WINDS AT BEST WILL BE AROUND 15 KTS W/SEAS APCHG 5 FT WEDNESDAY W/LOW PRES PASSING BY WELL TO THE S. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO 10 KTS W/SEAS FALLING OFF BELOW 4 FT.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 6 PM. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO TUESDAY BUT STILL CONTINUED TO REMAIN DRY BUT COOL W/LESS WIND. LESS WIND AND CONTINUED COOL FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL W/CONDITIONS BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ015>017- 029-030. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...NORTON LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...MIGNONE/NORTON MARINE...MIGNONE/NORTON FIRE WEATHER...HEWITT

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