Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 110953 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 553 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
6AM UPDATE... ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER WITH REGARDS TO CIRRUS SHIELD MOVING THROUGH DOWN EAST AND REDUCED LOWS TONIGHT SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS SUNNY SKIES...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 15 MPH IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND LESS SOUTHWARD. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CUMULUS ELSEWHERE. A CIRRUS SHIELD DOWN EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OUT LATER IN THE MORNING. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN EAST WITH A FEW 80F READINGS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER COOL DRY NIGHT IS ON TAP TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F IN NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE WEEKEND GETS OFF TO A NICE START AS HIGH PRESSURE ONLY SLOWLY SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND JUST A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE DEW POINTS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE REASONABLY COMFORTABLE 50S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE L/M 80S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE. A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER LOW IN EASTERN MANITOBA DROPS INTO ONTARIO SUN WITH A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SAT NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUN...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE. THE MODELS ALL DRIVE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION SUN. MUCH OF THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. STRONGER RETURN FLOW AND MORE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...BUT IT WILL BE MORE MUGGY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WARM...MUGGY & UNSETTLED SUMS UP AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT 12Z MON TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUE PM AS THE UPPER LOW AND SFC COLD FRONT GET CLOSER TO THE AREA AND PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH SIGNIFICANT ENSEMBLE SPREAD BY WED. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE FASTEST MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH...AND WOULD HAVE IT IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY WED EVE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND WOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING RIGHT INTO THU. THERE IS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. THERE IS ALSO SOME HINT THAT LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WOULD SLOW DOWN THE FRONT AND KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING LONGER. FOR NOW HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS AND HAVE CONFINED ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE DOWNEAST REGION WED. DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN THE TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR SHORT TERM: VFR SAT. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AT KBHB AND KBGR DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS SUN-TUE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE DOWNEAST IN PATCHY FOG AND IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO FOG...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. SHORT TERM: A LONG DURATION OF S-SW FLOW STARTS SAT AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. THE WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SCA LEVELS...BUT THE SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WITH TIME AND MAY REACH 5-6 FT BY LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE. THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE LOOKS WAY TOO HIGH FOR THE PATTERN AND HAVE CUT THE SEAS BACK BY 2-3 FT TUE AND TUE NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE SEAS ARE TOO HIGH BECAUSE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO TOO STRONG. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...MCW/CB MARINE...MCW/CB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.