Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240145 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 945 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region through tonight. Low pressure will lift north toward Maine Tuesday and will be followed by a cold front Wednesday. High pressure builds back into the area Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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930 PM Update: Appears shwrs have msly ended ovr Downeast ptns of the FA, with oceanic bkn-ovc ST alg the coast making slow movement nwrd. Fcstg the nwrd xtnt of the ST clgs will be the remaining fcst challenge ovrngt. Right now, we are leaning with the SREF scenario with the max advc of MVFR and IFR clgs into cntrl ptns of the FA by 09-12z, but this is uncertain given relatively weak BL-850mb SE winds alf. Otherwise...obsvd hrly temps have been placed into the 6-9PM tm frame of the fcst grids with hrly temps aftwrds interpolated to fcst lows posted at 5am Tue. Orgnl Disc: High pressure will build across the region tonight. Expect mainly clear skies across northern and central areas and partly cloudy skies downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Low pressure both at the surface and aloft will start to lift north from the mid atlantic region during Tuesday. Expect increasing clouds during Tuesday with a chance of showers by afternoon across downeast areas. Highs on Tuesday will range from the mid to upper 70s northern and central areas, mid to upper 60s interior downeast, and mid 50s to around 60 along the immediate coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A closed upper low in the vicinity of Cape Cod Tuesday evening will slowly weaken to an open trough and lift into New Brunswick Wednesday. A pre-frontal trough will move into northern Maine Wednesday morning and will be followed by a cold front that will cross the region late in the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Depending on the amount of cloud cover and sfc heating there will be the chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening, but no severe weather is expected. the showers will end across the region Wednesday night. Brief ridging surface and aloft builds across the region Thursday making for a dry day with a partly to mostly sunny sky and temperatures a little above average for late may. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... All of the extended models are in good agreement. A weak high pressure ridge will be retreating from our area as an upper level low over central Canada north of lake Superior, with a trough extending into the eastern Great Lakes region. Early Saturday morning the trough moves into western Maine, then to central Maine by Saturday morning. The trough will move east of Maine Saturday evening. Two new lows, the first over western lake Superior, with a front extending to southern IL. The second low over coastal SC, the ECMWF second low is over southern FL. Sunday morning the GFS and ECMWF diverge on there solutions. The GFS bring the warm front to central Maine, moves the low over Superior into southern Canada. The low along the SC coast remains stationary, but deepens. The ECMWF keeps the warm front south of Maine, keeps the associated low over southern Superior. Sunday evening the models are in better agreement. With the GFS moving the front back to the south over southwest Maine. The ECMWF moving its front to MA. Monday the frontal boundary remains stationary over southwest Maine. Through the day as its associated low moves into Hudson Bay, the front will extend into western Maine. By the end of the period the low will move into northeast Quebec, the associated cold front moves into central Maine. Loaded a blend to smooth out the minor differences in the models. The blend more closely follows the solution of the GFS. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected across the northern sites tonight. At KBGR/KBHB, guidance is suggesting MVFR and possibly IFR conditions after 06z in lowering clgs. Expect VFR conditions Tuesday morning across the north to give way to developing MVFR in sct showers and MVFR conditions KBGR/KBHB in sct showers and low clgs. SHORT TERM: Predominately vfr Tue night with times of mvfr in showers Wednesday into Wed evening. Conditions will improve to vfr by Thursday morning and continue during the day Thursday. conditions will lower to mvfr at times in showers Friday into Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas should remain below SCA levels through Tuesday. Visibility may be reduced to 1 to 3 nm at in showers. SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels for the most part during the short term, but may approach 5 ft at times Wednesday afternoon or evening across the outer portions of the coastal zones. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...CB Long Term...Norton Aviation...VJN/CB Marine...VJN/CB

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