Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 041802 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 102 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT ARE NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST AND WASHINGTON COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION BY MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A CHALLENGING SET UP FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY AFFECT THE COAST. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THE SREF/NAM/ECMWF ALL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE OUTER ISLANDS AND COAST AND THE 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF EVEN BROUGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION IN FORM OF SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES WITH THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DROPPING OFF RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE COAST (ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY), AND IF THE NW TREND CONTINUES PERHAPS EVEN A BIT MORE. PROBABLY THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG THE COAST. WILL BEEF UP THE POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST, AND WILL HAVE AROUND 2" OF SNOW IN COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE LATEST THINKING FROM WPC. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH PRETTY QUICK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. A SFC RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. TEMPS FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD. IT MAY NOT BE AN IDEAL NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING FRI NIGHT AS CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER APPROACH LATER AT NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE SAT AS THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO SW QUEBEC. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY, BUT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN TO BREAK OUT LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK OVERRUNNING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SAT NIGHT WITH AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUN MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL. THE TIMING IS NOT GREAT WITH THE FRONT COMING THROUGH IN THE MORNING. RIDGING BRIEFLY FOLLOWS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WHAT HAPPENS FROM LATE MON THROUGH WED REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW, BUT HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES INTERACT AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PHASING AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THERE HAS BEEN SO MUCH RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY AND SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES. A REVIEW OF THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWS A LOT MORE VARIABILITY IN THE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. AMOUNTS AND DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FRI MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS, AND ESPECIALLY AT KBHB IN A PERIOD OF -SN. MAINLY VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO PREDOMINATELY MVFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR POSSIBLE IN SOME BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS SUN MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN IN DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: THE WIND MAY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FRI AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE WATERS. THE WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS LATER FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY LATE SAT AS LOW PRES APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB MARINE...NORCROSS/CB

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