Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 200403 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1203 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region overnight. The high will move east on Thursday. Low pressure approaching from the west will bring rain Thursday night into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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12:03 AM update...Clear across the region as of midnight with clouds to the north and west of Maine. These clouds should remain at bay overnight. Temperatures have dropped back into the 30s in the colder northern valleys, and some patchy river valley fog is possible very late tonight into early Thursday morning. Only minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast based mainly on the midnight observations. Orgnl Disc: Added patchy fog late tonight. Lowered tonight`s lows with a very shallow inversion likely. Guidance usually does poorly with such shallow inversions in the fall. Some of the bias- corrected consensus blends are getting the right idea, but are probably still not quite there. No frost advisories will be issued. The frost/freeze program has ended for this season in our forecast area. In terms of shallow patchy fog, forecast Skew- Ts show nothing, but the dew points, strong subsidence, residual surface moisture and time of year suggest otherwise. For Thursday, guidance seems in good agreement with highs in the mid to upper 50s and increasing afternoon clouds. Will ratchet pops up sharply at the end of the afternoon into the evening. A wave of low pressure currently in Oklahoma will organize and deepen on its way to the Ohio Valley late Thursday. Piscataquis County could receive a few hundredths of an inch of rain by evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A large trough of low pressure will be approaching from the west Thursday night as a very moist frontal boundary extending from over the Appalachians north to the St. Lawrence valley begins to approach. Some rain will be pushing into western areas ahead of this front. From there, the forecast becomes complicated as the moist frontal boundary remains to our west, the trough becomes more negatively tilted, and increasing moisture from a tropical wave off the southeast coast begins to approach. Rain will likely spread across the rest of the area Friday as surface low pressure develops off the Mid Atlantic coast. The rain will expand in coverage and continue into Friday night with some bands of heavy rain likely as the Mid Atlantic low lifts north across our area and the trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted pulling tropical moisture north. Some of the rain will continue into Saturday, mainly across the north. However, drier air wrapping into the trough and lifting up from the south will likely end the rain from south to north on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface low pressure will lift north of the area Saturday night as strong, gusty south southwesterly winds wrapping around the low buffet the area. Showers will continue in western areas. This will be followed by a blustery and cooler day on Sunday as clouds, showers, and a strong west southwesterly wind continues south of departing low pressure. Rain showers may mix with snow showers across the north late Sunday night. Monday will be drier but remaining very chilly. Moisture wrapping back into the area beneath the trough will bring clouds and rain and snow showers Monday night into Tuesday. Drier but chilly weather will follow Tuesday night into Wednesday as cold high pressure builds in from the west. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR with no cigs until Thursday afternoon when rain is possible for sites such as GNR. There is a chance of shallow patchy fog around sunrise Thursday. The most likely terminals to be affected would be PQI and HUL. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds, fog and some rain can be expected Thursday night into Saturday. Conditions may improve to MVFR Downeast late Saturday into Saturday evening but will remain IFR over the north Saturday evening. IFR conditions are then expected across the area in persisting low clouds later Saturday night into Sunday. In addition to the low ceilings, wind shear is possible Friday night through Saturday for strong south winds aloft and gusty winds are likely Saturday night through Sunday as strong low pressure lifts north of the area. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: the Wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels overnight into Thursday. SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed Thursday night for southeast winds ahead of approaching low pressure. A SCA will likely be needed again for gusty westerly winds late Saturday through Saturday night.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/VJN Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...CB/VJN/Bloomer Marine...CB/VJN/Bloomer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.