Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 121435 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 935 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track across northern Maine Today. A cold front will cross the region tonight through early Friday. High pressure will build across the region through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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930 AM update...One batch of rain is currently crossing the region and should move into New Brunswick by 11 am. Expect we`ll be a brief break from the rain for a few hours thereafter, until the low actually moves across northern Maine later this afternoon. Have made some adjustments to pops to match this thinking, using a blend of the near-term high res models. Otherwise, the only other adjustments made were to temps and dewpoints to bring in the latest obs. Note that there are one or two sheltered locations in the Central Highlands that are right around freezing, so can`t rule out some highly localized patches of freezing rain over the next hour or two. Little to no ice accumulation is expected. Previous Discussion... Low pressure will track northeast across northern Maine later today through early tonight. Precipitation today through early tonight will be mostly in the form of rain across the forecast area. However, isolated pockets of brief freezing rain are possible across mostly valley locations across northwest portions of the forecast area early this morning. Little or no ice accumulation is expected. Will also have areas of fog across the region today through early tonight. The low will exit across the maritimes later tonight. The exiting low will begin to draw a cold front across the forecast area later tonight. Steady precipitation early tonight will taper to showers before ending across most of the forecast area overnight. However, a chance of snow showers will persist across the north and mountains later tonight in the wake of the cold front. High temperatures today will range from around 40 to the lower 40s north, to the mid 40s Bangor and interior Downeast with upper 40s along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight will range through the 20s across northern areas, with lower 30s Bangor and interior Downeast with mid 30s along the Downeast coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Intense low pressure is expected to move to the north of the region. This system will produce a strong pressure gradient resulting in strong northwest winds during the day Friday along with cold advection. Strong high pressure will build in from the west Friday night but winds will be slow to diminish until after day break Saturday. The high will crest over the state Saturday then move to the east. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will approach from the west Saturday night and cross the state Sunday with high pressure building in from the west behind the cold front. The high will then cross the region Monday then move east into the Atlantic. A warm front will approach from the southwest Tuesday. Snow is expected to develop ahead of the warm front Wednesday. The snow may change to rain Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR, with occasional VLIFR, conditions are expected Bangor and Downeast this morning, with MVFR/IFR conditions developing across central and northern areas. IFR/LIFR conditions are then expected across the entire region this afternoon into tonight with rain and areas of fog. Occasional MVFR conditions will then persist across the region overnight. Low level wind shear is also a concern across northern areas this morning and across Bangor and Downeast areas this morning into the afternoon. Generally expect precipitation in the form of rain. However, isolated pockets of light freezing rain are possible across mostly valley locations of northwest portions of the region early this morning with little or no ice accumulation. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Friday through Monday. Gusty west to northwest winds up to around 35 mph are also expected across the region Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters today through tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in rain and patchy fog today through early tonight. SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS20 for sustained winds through Saturday then transition to the Super Blend winds. For Waves: Off shore wind wave is expected to be primary wave system Friday with a secondary southerly longer period swell group. The wind wave is then expected to subside later in the day along with the southerly swell system. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for ANZ050>052. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hastings/Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Hastings/Norcross/Mignone Marine...Hastings/Norcross/Mignone

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