Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241216 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 816 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moving off the Downeast coast this morning will dissipate today. High pressure will build across the area tonight into Tuesday. Low pressure will slowly move up the coast Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 8:15 AM Update...The big challenge this morning is temperatures. Had to lower temps a few degrees through mid morning across the north where cool dry air has moved in, and had to raise temps a few degrees Downeast south of the front. Central areas are mostly cloudy along the front while skies are mostly clear across the north, north of the front and Downeast, south of the front. The frontal boundary and clouds is expected to push south this morning. Previous discussion... A cold front is pushing off the Downeast coast early this morning, and will stall out and dissipate across the coastal waters today. The brunt of the cold air mass slides from central Quebec and into Newfoundland, but it does clip northern Maine with 850H temps of around -10C across the Saint John Valley, but closer to +2C along the Hancock County coast. This will lead to a sharp north to south temperature gradient with highs not getting much above 40 degrees in the saint John Valley, but closer to 60 degrees across the interior Downeast region. The sky will be partly to mostly sunny with some cu to pop up across the north in the colder air. Tonight will be mainly clear and cold as high pressure settles into the area. Lows will range from the 20s across the Crown to the 30s toward the coast. Some of the broad northwest valley may drop into the teens. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Wet and cloudy weather pattern setting up Tuesday night and persisting for quite a while. Long moist southerly fetch setting up for Wednesday/Thursday with precipitable water values around record high levels for so early in the season. Went with close to 100 percent chance of rain most areas late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. At least Tuesday day looks generally dry...enjoy it while it lasts as rain is on the way. Airmass aloft is quite warm, but with moist low level southerly flow off the cool Gulf of Maine, don`t anticipate it being that warm at the surface. At least it will be warm enough for precipitation to safely be all rain. Models all have the deep moisture over the region with the very high precipitable water values, but overall not too concerned about flooding for a few reasons. First, expect precipitation rates not to be conducive to flash flooding, with little if any in the way of convection and more of a stratiform rain. Second, although rivers are running high, they are running highest in the north, but the best chance for heaviest rain totals from 1.5 to 2.5 inches is Downeast where rivers aren`t running as high. Third, upper level dynamics are fairly weak and will limit the ability of the high precipitable water values to translate into that heavy of rainfall. Fourth, MMEFS ensemble river guidance indicates that even with the high end of rain occurring, most rivers should be able to handle the potential couple inches of rain. Still, will need to keep an eye on things. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Wet and unsettled continuing into late week. Deepest moisture moves off to our east Thursday and Friday, but still a chance of rain due to persisting low level moisture. Perhaps a bit of a break in the action late Saturday to early Sunday before the next likely rainmaker moves in late Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: A few patches of IFR ceilings early this morning along the coast along with patchy fog will give way to VFR by 12-13Z. MVFR-IFR in spots across northern Maine to the south of KPQI will give way to VFR by 13Z. VFR for the remainder of the day and through tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR Tuesday, but deteriorating to predominant IFR areawide Tuesday night, persisting into Wednesday night with rain and low ceilings. Expect general MVFR Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions likely Tuesday night and persisting for several days after. With a long southerly fetch, seas will build to around 9 feet Wednesday and Thursday. May be minor coastal erosion around the high tide Wednesday night. Something to watch, but not overly concerned at this point. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/MCB Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...CB/Foisy Marine...CB/Foisy

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