Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 242103 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 403 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CHALLENGING FORECAST UPCOMING AS THE DOWNEAST AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN AREAS(WASHINTON COUNTY) WILL ADD UP ON THEIR SNOW TOTALS FOR THIS SEASON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS PUSHING NE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION STARTING LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES THIS EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS THICKEN. THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE 2 WAVES OF PRECIP TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE 1ST IS SLATED TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION INCLUDING THE COAST LATTER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS 1ST WAVE IS ASSOCIATED W/THE INVERTED TROF AND WAA. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW SOME SB CAPE OF 70-100 JOULES W/SOME INSTABILITY ABOVE THE WEAK INVERSION. THIS INSTABILITY COULD ENHANCE THE PRECIP WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS WELL OFF THE COAST. A DECENT ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IS THERE AS WELL. THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE NAM AND NOW THE GFS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS TO HAPPEN. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGIONS THROUGH 06Z W/THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE AFTER LEVELING OFF. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS SET TO TAKE PLACE AFTER 06Z AS LOW PRES REDEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN LIFTS NE NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF NOVA SCOTIA(BAY OF FUNDY). THIS LOW IN CONJUNCTION W/THE INVERTED TROF WILL ALLOW FOR A AN OF MODERATE SNOW TO BREAK OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN SIDES OF THE CWA AND THEN SPREAD NNE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SNOW RATIOS IN THE HEAVIER BANDING COULD HIT 20:1 LEADING TO DECENT RATES FOR A TIME. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE AROOSTOOK AND ALL OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. HISTORICALLY WHEN A LOW MOVES THROUGH THE BAY OF FUNDY AND INTENSIFIES SUCH AS THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO DO, SNOWFALL CAN BE HEAVY. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A FAST MOVER AS THE UPPER TROF IS OPEN. THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2" FOR ABOUT 2 HRS OR SO AND THEN THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. QPF TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OF 0.25-0.50" AND AVERAGE RATIOS OF 15-18:1 WILL YIELD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 9 INCHES FROM NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY DOWN THROUGH THE DOWNEAST COAST. A 5 TO 8 INCH RANGE OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. GIVEN ALL THIS AND IN COLLABORATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO GO W/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING AS SSW SHIFT TO THE NNW WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER W/READINGS HITTING THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST BRINGS A RETURN OF COLD AND DRY WEATHER. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, DRY AND COLD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS, MAINLY DOWNEAST, ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST AND PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTH. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY FROM WARM ADVECTION AS A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A TROUGH COMING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CURRENTLY APPEARS DISORGANIZED AND MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH, BUT IT NOW APPEARS THIS LOW WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A TROUGH APPROACHING DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR TONIGHT GOING TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT W/KBGR AND KBHB DROPPING FIRST FOLLOWED BY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY AROUND 09Z. IFR AND PERHAPS A PERIOD LIFR IN HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. MVFR FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS AND VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB BY THE AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE MOVES IN BRINGING LOWER CLOUDS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. ANY FREEZING SPRAY FOR THIS TERM WILL BE LIGHT AND THAT WILL BE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12/GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED WINDS SHOWING 15-20 KT LATER TONIGHT. THE SCA POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR THE GUSTS W/SPEEDS 25 KT OR SO. WAVE HEIGHTS STARTING OUT 2-4 FT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO A RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FT BY WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOR THE OUTER ZONES. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SCA THURSDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ002-005-006. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ011-015-016-029-031. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ017-030-032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...HEWITT/BLOOMER MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER

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